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State of Congress: House looks to California (and Trump)

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The breakdown of the Senate is all but set. And a handful of races in California — and President-elect Donald Trump’s personnel decisions — seem likely to determine how much wiggle room Republicans will have in their probable House majority.

Arizona Senate: Almost a week after the election, the Associated Press called the open Senate race for Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego over GOP nominee Kari Lake. His lead at the time of the call stands at about 72,000 votes. It’s a crucial win for Democrats, who will now have a minority conference of 47 seats in the Senate.

Pennsylvania Senate: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) chipped away at GOP Sen.-elect David McCormick’s lead, but the Democrat still trails by 35,000 votes after more ballots came in on Monday. The Casey campaign isn’t conceding until the counting wraps, but he faces long odds to erase McCormick’s advantage. The AP called the race for the Republican several days ago. “Ruben Gallego and David McCormick have been invited to attend orientation,” a spokesperson for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday morning.

Battle for the House: Republicans have secured 214 called seats by the Associated Press — and currently lead in races that would give them 222 seats. Some of those may not hold, though. Here’s an overview of some of the most competitive seats:

  • California 27th: Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said in a statement Monday night that he had conceded to Democrat George Whitesides, ensuring a flip of a GOP-held seat. Ballot drops have consistently broken in the Democrat’s favor as the process continues. 
  • California 47th: Democrat Dave Min expanded his lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh to more than 3,200 votes — or more than one percentage point — for this open seat. An estimated 82 percent of votes have now been counted. 
  • California 13th: Democrat Adam Gray continues to chip into Rep. John Duarte’s (R) lead in this contest, which appears likely to come down to the wire. The incumbent currently leads by just under 3,000 votes with 62 percent of ballots counted. 
  • California 45th: A set of ballots dropped on Monday from Orange County broke heavily for Democrat Derek Tran, dropping Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) lead to 3,908 votes. There are an estimated 16 percent of ballots still outstanding in the contest, so this one is likely to be a nail biter. 
  • California 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R) declared victory on Monday as his lead over Democrat Will Rollins stood at more than 7,500 votes. Rollins isn’t conceding yet, though it seems he’d need everything to break his way to overcome Calvert’s lead. 
  • California 22nd: Incumbent Rep. David Valadao’s (R) lead stands at just under 10,000 votes with an estimated 77 percent of ballots counted in this contest against Democrat Rudy Salas. 
  • Arizona 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) lead swelled to nearly 5,000 votes over Democrat Kirsten Engel as more votes are tallied in this swing Arizona district. The AP has not formally called the contest, but this looks like a sure GOP hold. 
  • Alaska at-large: Observers are still waiting for ballots from rural Alaska to be tallied, but incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) faces long odds to make up a 10,000 vote gap with GOP challenger Nick Begich. One thing to watch: If Begich doesn’t get to 50 percent, the state’s ranked-choice voting system kicks in. 

One other thing to watch: Maine officials will run the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures Tuesday at 1 p.m. (watch on YouTube, if you’re into that). Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) leads his GOP challenger Austin Theriault by more than 2,000 votes but came up short of an outright majority, triggering the ranked-choice voting system.

Things could get interesting fast for the GOP majority: Two House Republicans — Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — have already been tapped by Trump for senior roles, opening up special elections for their seats. Waltz’s role doesn’t even require Senate confirmation, so he’ll vacate his seat immediately.

Called races by the AP Monday afternoon: Rep.-elect Cleo Fields (D-La.); Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.)

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Congress

Massie files to run in 2028 after losing House primary

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GOP Rep. Thomas Massie filed on Monday to run for his Kentucky House seat in 2028, less than a week after losing a primary fight against a challenger backed by President Donald Trump.

Massie became the latest victim of Trump’s revenge tour last week when former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein successfully ousted him in a primary that shattered electoral spending records.

Trump repeatedly railed against Massie, who has broken with the president on several high-profile issues in recent months, including the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran. Massie also helped lead the congressional effort to force Trump to release the federal government’s files on deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Advertising spending in his primary fight — the most expensive on record — surpassed $32 million as pro-Israel interest groups poured millions into the effort to unseat Massie, who has been an outspoken critic of Israel during his time in Congress.

Massie said in a Monday afternoon statement that the move would allow him “to raise funds to continue my political operations supporting my position as a current office holder and as a potential candidate for federal office,” adding that he had not yet decided which office to seek.

Trump also succeeded in pushing out other Republicans who challenged his leadership in Louisiana and Georgia last week, with GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy and Georgia gubernatorial candidate Brad Raffensperger both losing to Trump-endorsed opponents.

The president also forced out several Indiana state lawmakers who opposed his nationwide redistricting efforts earlier this month, once more proving his iron grip on the party.

But Republicans in Congress and GOP operatives are fretting that Trump’s laserlike focus on vengeance could imperil the party’s legislative agenda ahead of this fall’s midterm elections and potentially cost the GOP control of Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s seat. Trump handed down an eleventh-hour endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton last week, more than two months after promising to weigh in on the ugly primary fight.

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Khanna expresses disappointment about Massie’s defeat

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Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) expressed disappointment Sunday morning that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost his primary last week.

Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Khanna said of his reaction: “Sadness, disappointment. Thomas is a real friend. He’s a good man.”

Khanna and Massie are very much on opposite ends of the classic left-right ideological spectrum, but they came together to introduce the Epstein Files Transparency Act, requiring the release of files in the case of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. They also joined together to attempt, unsuccessfully, to block U.S. involvement in Iran.

Those efforts, as well as other votes, led President Donald Trump to repeatedly denounce Massie and campaign on behalf of Ed Gallrein, Massie’s challenger in their Kentucky congressional district. Gallrein won the primary last week with approximately 55 percent of the vote.

Speaking to host Kristen Welker, Khanna offered his analysis of Massie’s defeat.

“He was taken out for two reasons,” Khanna said. “One: He had the courage to go after some very powerful people in working with me to get the Epstein Transparency Act passed. As you mentioned, that’s historic bipartisan legislation that finally got justice for the survivors. And he had people spend millions of dollars and had the president of the United States after him.

“And second, he worked with me to stop this war in Iran. So for taking on the Epstein class and taking on war, he basically lost his state. And I admire his courage in taking those positions.”

With talk this weekend of a possible deal with Iran, Khanna said it is time for the war to come to an end.

“The answer to your question is yes. I do believe we need a negotiated deal,” he told Welker.

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Absent congressmember Tom Kean Jr. starts working the phone

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Rep. Tom Kean Jr., whose two-and-a-half month disappearance has stoked speculation about his health and political future, has begun more actively communicating over the phone.

On Thursday, Kean began calling Republican county chairs in his 7th Congressional District, one of the most competitive in the country in this year’s midterms. The two-term Republican also gave a “lengthy” interview to New Jersey Globe on Thursday afternoon, the first he has granted since he last voted on March 5.

Kean did not respond to a text message from Blue Light News and his voicemail was full Thursday night.

But Kean, 57, gave no details to the Globe on his undisclosed illness, which has kept him out of public view since early March. He said he’s expecting to make a full recovery, that it would not affect his cognitive health, that he plans to run for reelection and that he will publicly discuss his health at an unspecified later date.

“My doctors are confident that I’m on the road to a full recovery,” Kean told New Jersey Globe. “I understand the need for public transparency, and I appreciate the support of my constituents.”

Kean added that he plans to return to voting and campaigning in the next couple weeks. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, told reporters Thursday he spoke to Kean and he will be back voting in June.

Kean’s lengthy absence has drawn national media attention, with reporters staking out his home in the wealthy 7th Congressional District, where he faces an extremely competitive reelection, with four Democrats competing in the June 2 primary to take him on in November. His campaign and office staff had repeatedly said that he expects to make a full recovery and would return to work “soon.”

But few people — even Kean’s two fellow New Jersey House Republicans — had recently reported speaking to him. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters that he spoke to Kean last month.

Kean called Republican chairs in his district on Thursday.

“He sounded good to me. Sounded just as normal as always,” said Carlos Santos, the Republican chair of Union County, where Kean lives.

Santos said that he did not ask Kean about his ailment, and that Kean did not disclose it. But he said Kean confirmed he’s running for reelection and that he has his support.

Tracy DiFrancesco, the GOP chair of Somerset County, also spoke with Kean.

“It was just a simple conversation. He sounded just like Tom always sounds. He sounded perfectly fine. He’s basically back. Hopefully we’re going to see him very soon,” she said. “I think he’s doing well and we’re excited to get back on his campaign.”

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