Connect with us

Congress

State of Congress: House looks to California (and Trump)

Published

on

The breakdown of the Senate is all but set. And a handful of races in California — and President-elect Donald Trump’s personnel decisions — seem likely to determine how much wiggle room Republicans will have in their probable House majority.

Arizona Senate: Almost a week after the election, the Associated Press called the open Senate race for Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego over GOP nominee Kari Lake. His lead at the time of the call stands at about 72,000 votes. It’s a crucial win for Democrats, who will now have a minority conference of 47 seats in the Senate.

Pennsylvania Senate: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) chipped away at GOP Sen.-elect David McCormick’s lead, but the Democrat still trails by 35,000 votes after more ballots came in on Monday. The Casey campaign isn’t conceding until the counting wraps, but he faces long odds to erase McCormick’s advantage. The AP called the race for the Republican several days ago. “Ruben Gallego and David McCormick have been invited to attend orientation,” a spokesperson for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday morning.

Battle for the House: Republicans have secured 214 called seats by the Associated Press — and currently lead in races that would give them 222 seats. Some of those may not hold, though. Here’s an overview of some of the most competitive seats:

  • California 27th: Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said in a statement Monday night that he had conceded to Democrat George Whitesides, ensuring a flip of a GOP-held seat. Ballot drops have consistently broken in the Democrat’s favor as the process continues. 
  • California 47th: Democrat Dave Min expanded his lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh to more than 3,200 votes — or more than one percentage point — for this open seat. An estimated 82 percent of votes have now been counted. 
  • California 13th: Democrat Adam Gray continues to chip into Rep. John Duarte’s (R) lead in this contest, which appears likely to come down to the wire. The incumbent currently leads by just under 3,000 votes with 62 percent of ballots counted. 
  • California 45th: A set of ballots dropped on Monday from Orange County broke heavily for Democrat Derek Tran, dropping Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) lead to 3,908 votes. There are an estimated 16 percent of ballots still outstanding in the contest, so this one is likely to be a nail biter. 
  • California 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R) declared victory on Monday as his lead over Democrat Will Rollins stood at more than 7,500 votes. Rollins isn’t conceding yet, though it seems he’d need everything to break his way to overcome Calvert’s lead. 
  • California 22nd: Incumbent Rep. David Valadao’s (R) lead stands at just under 10,000 votes with an estimated 77 percent of ballots counted in this contest against Democrat Rudy Salas. 
  • Arizona 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) lead swelled to nearly 5,000 votes over Democrat Kirsten Engel as more votes are tallied in this swing Arizona district. The AP has not formally called the contest, but this looks like a sure GOP hold. 
  • Alaska at-large: Observers are still waiting for ballots from rural Alaska to be tallied, but incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) faces long odds to make up a 10,000 vote gap with GOP challenger Nick Begich. One thing to watch: If Begich doesn’t get to 50 percent, the state’s ranked-choice voting system kicks in. 

One other thing to watch: Maine officials will run the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures Tuesday at 1 p.m. (watch on YouTube, if you’re into that). Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) leads his GOP challenger Austin Theriault by more than 2,000 votes but came up short of an outright majority, triggering the ranked-choice voting system.

Things could get interesting fast for the GOP majority: Two House Republicans — Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — have already been tapped by Trump for senior roles, opening up special elections for their seats. Waltz’s role doesn’t even require Senate confirmation, so he’ll vacate his seat immediately.

Called races by the AP Monday afternoon: Rep.-elect Cleo Fields (D-La.); Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.)

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Congress

Senate Republicans reject Democrats’ accounting baseline challenge

Published

on

Republicans batted down a Democratic challenge to the GOP’s use of “current policy baseline,” which zeroes out the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cut extensions in the GOP megabill. The 53-47 vote approved the use of the maneuver along party lines.

Senate Democrats initiated four parliamentary inquiries on Monday morning in an attempt to show that the tactic is akin to a nuclear option that would blow-up longstanding budget rules.

“Republicans are doing something the Senate has never done before, deploying fake math, accounting gimmicks, to hide the true cost of the bill,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the floor. “To vote yes on this, make no mistake about it my colleagues, will in a dramatic way further erode the Senate.”

Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) countered that he has the authority as Budget Committee chair to determine the budget baseline used to implement and score provisions in the sprawling border, energy and tax legislation.

“I’ve never felt better. I’ve been wanting to do this for, like, a long time,” Graham said.

Continue Reading

Congress

Vote-a-rama, last hurdle before megabill’s Senate approval, is underway

Published

on

The Senate has kicked off “vote-a-rama” — the marathon of amendment votes on the Republicans’ domestic policy megabill.

The first vote wasn’t on adoption of a specific amendment, but instead on whether Republicans can use a controversial accounting tactic to zero out the $3.8 trillion cost of extending President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts in their massive domestic policy bill.

Republicans assert that Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has the unilateral power to change the accounting method to the so-called current policy baseline. Yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer moved to force a simple-majority vote on undoing the change; it’s expected to fail along party lines.

“Every senator will soon have an opportunity to reject this nonsense and vote for common-sense budgeting,” Schumer said on the floor Monday morning. “Americans will be watching.”

The vote has high stakes for Republicans because without the accounting change, Finance Committee provisions would increase the deficit by much more than the $1.5 trillion cap set out in the budget blueprint Senate Republicans adopted earlier this year.

Ahead of the voting, Senate Majority Leader John Thune underscored the need to address the expiring tax cuts: “This is about extending that tax relief, so the same people that benefited from it back in 2017 and for the last eight years don’t end up having a colossal, massive tax increase hitting them in the face come Jan. 1.”

The Senate will then move on to rapid-fire amendment votes from both Democrats and Republicans on curbing a key Medicaid funding mechanism, doubling the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, changing the bill’s artificial intelligence provisions and softening deep cuts to wind and solar energy.

“We will see, once and for all, if Republicans really meant all those nice things they’ve been saying about strengthening Medicare, about protecting middle class families, or if they were just lying,” Schumer said.

The votes are expected to go all day Monday and potentially into Tuesday morning. Vote-a-ramas are rarely held during daylight hours — majority-party leaders like to use fatigue as a weapon to bring things to a close — but Senate GOP leaders chose to give lawmakers a reprieve after multiple late nights.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s title.

Continue Reading

Congress

Capitol agenda: Thune heads into a perilous vote-a-rama

Published

on

The Senate’s “big, beautiful” vote-a-rama starts in just two hours — and nobody knows how it’s going to end.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only lose one more vote with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) already opposed. As Senate GOP leaders scramble to strike deals to keep the bill on track, House Republicans are drawing red lines, with fiscal hawks threatening to tank the bill over the Senate’s budget framework and moderates balking at the provider-tax crackdown.

Here are the big fights we’re watching when amendment votes kick off at 9 a.m., leading to a final vote on passage late Monday or early Tuesday:

Medicaid: GOP Sen. Rick Scott’s proposal to curb a key Medicaid funding mechanism after 2030 has Thune’s support as part of a deal struck to get the Florida senator and a handful of other holdouts to advance the megabill to debate.

If it fails, it could cost leadership some fiscal hawks, though Sens. Scott and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) refused to go there Sunday night. If it passes, it could alienate so-called Medicaid moderates. One of them, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, filed an amendment that would double the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, and pay for it by adding a 39.6-percent bracket on earners making over $25 million.

Medicaid moderates could also try to further water down the bill’s cut to the provider tax. Keep an eye on Tillis, now unburdened by a reelection bid, who slammed the Medicaid cuts in a fiery floor speech Sunday and might jump in again. Another key player to watch is Sen. Lisa Murkowski and whether her support slips after the parliamentarian derailed Medicaid-payment provisions aimed at winning over the Alaskan. The parliamentarian also, as of early this morning, had yet to rule on food-aid waivers for Alaska that could affect Murkowski’s vote.

Green credits: Moderates including Tillis and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) could offer amendments to soften the bill’s deep cuts against wind and solar energy, including its crackdown on IRA credits and a new excise tax. That could provoke a fight with House conservatives and the White House, which have pushed for aggressive rollbacks.

AI: Commerce Chair Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are pitching a plan to cut the megabill’s 10-year moratorium on state enforcement of AI laws in half and make accommodations for internet protections.

The grand finale could be a manager’s amendment that House GOP leaders are pushing for to further resolve differences between the chambers and speed the bill to Trump by Friday. The House is scheduled to vote as soon as Wednesday at 9 a.m.

What else we’re watching:

— Farm bill fight: Dozens of agriculture groups are urging senators to oppose an amendment from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that would limit income thresholds of farmers who can receive federal aid. A host of farm-state GOP senators also oppose Grassley’s push, according to three people granted anonymity. Some are concerned that liberal senators could join with conservative fiscal hawks to pass the amendment.

— Solar and wind tax backlash: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Solar Energy Industry Association are slamming a new addition to the megabill that would tax solar and wind projects that have components from foreign sources, including China. “Taxing energy production is never good policy, whether oil & gas or, in this case, renewables,” Chamber executive vice president and chief policy officer Neil Bradley wrote on X.

— Campaign announcements: Rep. Don Bacon is expected to announce his retirement Monday, according to two people familiar with his plans. The centrist Republican’s Nebraska seat is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats; it’s one of only three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. Meanwhile GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson is expected to announce a bid for South Dakota governor on Monday, according to two people familiar with his planning. He’ll be the eighth House Republican to run for higher office in 2026.

Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Mohar Chatterjee and Josh Siegel contributed to this report.

Continue Reading

Trending