Congress
Capitol agenda: GOP readies for an underwhelming lame duck
Republicans’ dreams of a productive lame-duck session are dimming.
Members returning to Washington post-election will have a mere 24 legislative days to get through a considerable list of must-pass bills and possibly messy internal leadership fights. That’s if they can overcome a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill and a foul national mood.
Lawmakers’ must-do list includes: an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck.
Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done.
And finally, leaders had deferred some GOP priorities — such as another party-line reconciliation bill or debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term.
All of the measures face their own potential political minefields individually, as well as a number of obstacles across the board:
— ATTENDANCE: There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out legislative wins, if they come back at all.
“The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?” Rep. Austin Scott said in an interview. “Attendance is an issue right now.”
— NEW LEVERAGE: If Democrats win control of either chamber, they’ll likely seek greater influence on legislation to push back on Trump’s actions.
For example, Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate any deal on spending legislation. They’ve also blocked the annual Pentagon policy bill amid a standoff over the Iran war; and they may push for more concessions on the permitting deal.
“The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a recent interview.
— GOP DISPUTES: While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start the reconciliation process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, with incentives waning for exiting lawmakers, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Other GOP senators, like Sen. Cynthia Lummis, are skeptical of a debt-limit increase.
A Democratic flip of the House could also spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections (more on that below).
Sen. John Kennedy speculated Congress’ agenda would all come down to the vibes of the GOP conference when they returned.
“You have no idea what the mood is going to be,” Kennedy said.
What else we’re watching:
— JOHNSON SCRAMBLES LEADERSHIP OUTLOOK: Republicans are reassessing the dynamics of potential leadership races after Speaker Mike Johnson‘s comments Monday that he would run for minority leader if the GOP loses the House — just days after he floated leaving Congress altogether in that scenario. Many Republicans had predicted Johnson would step aside with a House flip, likely setting off a race between Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan for the top GOP spot. If Johnson stays put, his success may depend on the severity of the party’s loss and if Trump weighs in for a certain candidate. “I hope he’s smarter than that,” one House Republican said of Johnson’s consideration of the minority leader role. “It would end very badly and cause unnecessary damage to the conference.”
— DEMS GEAR UP ON TRADE OVERSIGHT — Democrats on the House Ways and Means, Senate Finance and other panels say Trump’s trade deals were corrupt, and they’re already lining up targets to probe. The party knows it can’t repeal Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House, but if they win control of Congress, they plan to haul in top administration officials and possibly executives to explain how Trump picked his targets in his trade war — and if others got a pass through suspected quid pro quos.
Jordain Carney, Daniel Desrochers and Oliver Ward contributed to this report.
House Democrats’ campaign arm is expanding its target list just three weeks ahead of Election Day, going on the air for the first time in four more districts with coordinated ad buys with the candidates.
The move, part of $13 million in coordinated ads launching this week across 39 districts and first shared with Blue Light News, is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s largest reach of investments this cycle as Republicans are working to defend a slew of redder seats in the final stretch.
The new districts include a toss-up race in Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District, which Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024, as well as for Democrats’ uphill fight to defend Maine’s 2nd District, which President Donald Trump carried by nine points and where Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring.
They’re also launching coordinated ads in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District, squarely within New York City’s expensive media market, where Democrats are working to unseat GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.
The coordinated ad buys also include Texas’s redrawn 35th District, where Democrat Johnny Garcia is running neck and neck with Republican Carlos De La Cruz in a suburban San Antonio district Republicans drew to win that Trump would have carried by 10 points.
The DCCC’s move comes as President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc.-aligned super PAC and a leading House GOP super PAC are planning to ditch spending in a group of House races in the coming days, as they race to shore up other House seats and salvage the Senate GOP majority.
“As Republicans pull out of media markets and cede that they are no longer competitive in multiple districts, the DCCC is continuing to go on the offensive,” DCCC National Political Director Brooke Butler said.
The NRCC has been up with ads in the four districts for weeks.
“While Democrats are just now scraping together the cash to bail out their radical socialists in critical battleground districts, House Republicans have been dominating the airwaves in those same districts and dozens more for weeks,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “The DCCC is desperately playing catch-up where Republicans have already lapped them.”
The DCCC didn’t share the exact size of the specific coordinated ad buys, only saying they were six-figure commitments.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $17 million over the last three months, her campaign shared first with Blue Light News, a sizable haul for the Democratic challenger in one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds.
It’s Peltola’s largest quarterly fundraising total in her bid to oust GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her campaign also said it’s a record third-quarter sum for a Senate candidate in Alaska.
“Alaskans are sick and tired of DC politicians making life more expensive for everyone while they keep lining their own pockets, and they know it’s time for a change,” Peltola said in a statement thanking her supporters.
That total includes nearly $3 million in Peltola raised in July, before Alaska’s all-party primary in August, which was previously reported to the Federal Election Commission. Peltola’s campaign did not release her cash on hand for the quarter that ended Oct. 1.
Sullivan’s campaign has not yet released his third-quarter numbers. Sullivan had just under $7.3 million in cash on hand as of July 29, while Peltola had $4.6 million at that point.
Alaska has emerged as a core battleground this cycle as both parties reorient around redder states while Georgia and North Carolina tilt toward Democrats. Recent polls show a tight race.
Republicans are racing to shore up Sullivan in the four-way, ranked-choice general election in which the senator is also facing a same-name challenger in retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan. Some in the party fear he could siphon votes from the incumbent.
President Donald Trump is heading to Alaska for a rally later Tuesday in Wasilla that Sullivan is slated to attend, the senator’s campaign confirmed. Vice President JD Vance swung through the state last week.
Peltola’s fundraising prowess has helped her hold her own on the airwaves. Republicans hold a slim spending advantage on the TV ad reservations for the final three weeks of the campaign, with both parties posting over $9 million in reservations, per tracker AdImpact.
Republicans have had to defer many of their legislative dreams, hoping the post-election release of political pressure could set up a productive “lame duck” session before a new Congress is seated.
Fat chance, many GOP lawmakers now say.
Beyond the uncertainties surrounding the midterms and a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill, members will return to Washington facing a considerable list of must-pass bipartisan bills but also potentially messy internal leadership fights, a foul national mood and a mere 24 legislative days to get anything done.
One thing on Republicans’ minds is whether some of their members even come back to vote.
“The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?” Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) said in an interview. “Attendance is an issue right now.”
There are some items, Scott added, that “ultimately … have to get done.” Those include an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major pieces of legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck. All are loaded with potential partisan flashpoints, however, and won’t be legislative chip shots.
Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done this year. But many lawmakers fear those could easily get left behind — especially if Democrats can win control of either chamber and seek greater influence on the final products.
“What do you think?” an exasperated Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said about the prospect for bipartisan accomplishments in the lame duck. “I mean, why? If you think about it, if Democrats win the House, why would they?”
Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who like Tillis is leaving Congress at the end of the year, echoed the belief that Democrats would “want to put their fingerprints more on things before they pass” in a majority-flips scenario.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested as much in a recent interview: “The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” he said. “Same thing if they win the House, and same thing if we win both or neither.”
Then there are partisan GOP priorities that some Republicans are hoping to ram through in the final weeks of the year — especially if the party’s governing trifecta is about to end — such as enacting hundreds of millions of dollars in new defense funding as well as new voting restrictions.
While GOP leaders are leaving the door open to attempting to pass another bill through the party-line reconciliation process, there are no signs they are closer to having the necessary votes than they were this summer.
While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start that process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly. There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out a final legislative win, if they come back at all.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune last month admitted he is facing mathematical realities that make passing another reconciliation bill “difficult” even in a lame-duck session.
That likely spells doom for another GOP wish being bandied about for the post-midterms session: clearing a debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term. Thune has acknowledged that as a possibility multiple times since July, but several GOP senators are skeptical.
“I don’t like that idea,” said retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), who added she had to “hold my nose” in voting for the last debt-ceiling lift.
But other GOP leaders are professing more optimism about the post-midterm environment to overcome some long-standing roadblocks.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise in an interview called it “an opportunity for everybody to focus on getting policy done because the election will be over.”
“I hope we get back to that, because it needs to happen,” he said.
But each piece of legislation still in limbo is riddled with thorny policy disputes. Senate Democrats blocked the defense bill amid a standoff over the Iran war and have objected to giving Trump back some surveillance powers. The farm bill, meanwhile, is mired in a fight over food assistance.
Thune has teed up an initial vote on the bipartisan permittingdeal, but Democrats continue to doubt whether Trump will live up to GOP negotiators’ clean energy commitments — and they could push for more concessions if they prevail in the midterms.
Even the must-do government funding bill is a potential minefield, with lawmakers widely expecting a punt until deeper into the holidays or even next year.
Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate the dealmaking ahead of the deadline. That could make passage of the 12 annual spending bills, or a combined full-year “omnibus” package, impossible.
“I just don’t think we’ll get them done by the 11th,” Rep. Mike Simpson of Idaho, a senior GOP appropriator, said about the full-year bills. He predicted another short-term punt.
Beyond the policy disputes, there’s a host of other distractions leaders of both parties will be dealing with once they return to session Nov. 9.
Speaker Mike Johnson will immediately have to deal with a House vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forced by outgoing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). With the Iran war weighing heavily on voters’ views of the GOP, some Republicans with an eye on the next election could decide to break ranks.
And though the elections will be over outside the Capitol, internal politicking could continue for weeks in both chambers.
A Democratic flip of the House could spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections, especially with Johnson giving mixed signals about his intentions in that scenario. He broached the possibility he might not remain atop his conference in a Fox News interview last week, then said in a CBS News interview published Monday that he expected “my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference” even after a loss.
Thune says he is running again for GOP leader regardless of the election outcome, and no other senator has signaled they will challenge him. That hasn’t stopped some conservatives, in and out of the chamber, from questioning whether Trump will blame him if the majority is lost.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said the lame duck to-do list could ultimately come down to vibes.
“I know what they would like us to do and all that,” Kennedy said. “But you have no idea what the mood is going to be.”
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