Congress

‘I’m glad I’m not on the ballot’: Senate GOP worries about its midterm edge

Published

7 months ago

March 14, 2026

Senate Republicans are growing anxious about the midterms.

They once felt like they had a glidepath to keep or even grow their majority in November, unlike in the House, where GOP control is razor-thin and members have become increasingly on edge about Democrats returning to power.

But the mood is shifting, according to interviews with 10 GOP senators and aides, as the U.S. engages in open-ended war in the Middle East, rising oil prices threaten to slow the economy and President Donald Trump stokes intra-party divisions over an elections overhaul bill known as the SAVE America Act.

Some GOP senators are now openly predicting a tough battle to hold onto control as their party struggles to keep the focus on affordability policies that lawmakers want to make the centerpiece of their midterm campaign. The Senate passed a major housing bill this week but it faces an uncertain future in the House. Trump himself told Republican lawmakers Monday that housing is not a top concern for voters.

“I’m glad I’m not on the ballot,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a close Trump ally, said in an interview when asked how he was feeling about the November elections.

Republican senators are warning that the party writ large needs to hammer home cost-of-living measures — despite apparent disinterest and distractions from Trump, who they hope will lean into the housing bill fight. Recent polls have shown the Iran conflict and the resulting rise in prices are major worries for voters, even as the president downplays affordability concerns.

“Energy prices are high. Everything’s high,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another Trump ally. He added that Republicans should “take some votes to lower the costs.”

Democrats have to net four seats to win back control of the Senate — a tall order that still gives Republicans an inherent edge. But Republicans are playing defense in Maine and North Carolina, the two races widely viewed as the most likely flips, and they’re facing a messy Trump-fueled primary in Texas. Republicans view Michigan and Georgia as potential pick-ups, though Democrats think they’ve also been able to put states like Ohio and Alaska in play through strong candidate recruitment.

Asked about Trump’s claim that the party will be in trouble if it doesn’t pass the SAVE America Act, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this week that he believed the election is instead “going to be about the economy, and that’s why I think we’re focused on that.”

He also said that midterms are “always a little dicey” during the second term of a presidential administration.

But under pressure from Trump and a fervent base, Thune is teeing up what will likely be a multi-week debate on what the president calls his “No. 1 priority” — the SAVE America Act legislation that would institute tough new citizenship and photo ID requirements in order to cast a ballot. Trump wants to expand this legislation even further to prohibit gender-affirming surgery for children and restrict mail-in voting.

The bill lacks the votes for Senate passage, yet Thune and his conference are being lobbied hard by the right flank to revamp or eliminate the filibuster as a means of jamming the legislation through — a strategy that also doesn’t have the votes.

This intra-party tension is on full display in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn is facing a May runoff against Texas Attorney General and MAGA favorite Ken Paxton. The elections bill has taken centerstage as Cornyn and Paxton vie for Trump’s endorsement, with Cornyn this week throwing his support behind scrapping the filibuster to pass the legislation.

Trump’s pressure campaign over the bill, including his decision to use the Texas race to make a play for its passage, has privately infuriated a broad swath of Senate Republicans, according to two people granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Republicans have privately conveyed to Trump that the voting measure can’t pass, while Thune has also publicly warned against linking a possible Cornyn endorsement to the bill.

Trump, however, told Fox News Radio Friday that he still intends to endorse in the race, but the “main thing I have to do is find out who’s going to get the SAVE America Act approved.” Senate Republicans are fearful that if Cornyn fails to win his runoff, the best-case scenario will cost the party hundreds of millions of dollars to defend against Democratic nominee James Talarico.

The election bill fight has spilled beyond Texas, as GOP senators are being flooded with public warnings from high-profile figures on the right that voters won’t turn out in the midterms or donate money unless the legislation passes. Trump has said passing the bill will “guarantee the midterms.”

White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said in a statement Friday that Trump “is the unequivocal leader of the Republican party, and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people.”

“It’s clear that he has delivered for Americans with a secure border, cooling inflation, working-class tax cuts, new trade deals, new drug pricing deals and trillions in investments,” Wales added. “The White House is keen to tout these victories in the months ahead as we continue to work to Make America Great Again.”

In the meantime, recent polls show that it’s the unfolding Iran conflict and cost-of-living issues that voters care most about.

Just over half of voters oppose military action against Iran, compared to 40 percent who support it, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this week. Nearly three-fourths said they were either very or somewhat concerned the war in the Middle East will lead to higher oil and gas prices.

In contrast, a Marist Poll also released this week found that 59 percent of Americans, when asked to consider November’s elections, said they wanted to ensure that everyone who wants to vote can do so — compared to 41 percent, who said their priority was making sure that no one who is ineligible can vote.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in an interview that he gives the president credit for making a “tough decision” on Iran but that “it’s not going to be necessarily good for the midterms.”

“Do I feel confident? I never feel confident,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough midterm.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) when speaking to reporters this week urged patience on rising gasoline prices but acknowledged if they persist into the summer, “that’s always bad.”

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), one of the GOP conference’s louder Trump critics, was more blunt during a Fox News interview this week, saying it could be a “disastrous election” for the party if the war drags on. Trump announced Friday evening that the U.S. military had carried out a major bombing operation in an apparent attempt to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway which carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), whose state is very much in play with his exit, said he’s seeing parallels to 2018, when Democrats won the House amid deep dissatisfaction with Republican leaders on Capitol Hill and in the Trump White House.

Tillis, who frequently vocalizes the concerns many of his colleagues express privately, said some Republicans have asked him, “‘why are you saying this out loud?’”

“Democrats are going to … take advantage of the increase in energy and drive the affordability message and we’ve got to have an answer for affordability,” he explained.

“We’ve just got to be realistic about it,” Tillis added. “We’ve got a voter enthusiasm gap that we need to address.”

Congress

Democrats want Mullin in the hotseat in the next Congress

Published

11 hours ago

October 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

A top priority for Democrats if they get more power in Congress in November: Forcing the Trump administration’s controversial and unpopular immigration crackdown back in the headlines.

And one of the people they plan to go after hard is Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin — the former lawmaker who was brought into the role in part because he was seen as someone who could play well with Congress, unlike former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

A House Democratic aide said that committees plan to look at how DHS under Mullin has failed to deploy body cameras to many immigration agents, allowed dismal conditions at immigration facilities and failed to cooperate with the department’s Inspector General.

“He owns that,” the aide emphasized. They were granted anonymity to speak freely about evolving legislative preparations ahead of November.

Other Democrats plan to take him to task over the Oct. 12 ICE raid on the D.C. residence of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.).

Even if Democrats are only able to issue subpoenas and produce reports, that could be enough to force DHS back into the headlines — undermining a major goal of Mullin’s: Keeping unpopular immigration enforcement operations away from public attention.

That would likely worsen the political pains the White House is experiencing on immigration. Voters in both parties have soured on the president’s ambitious immigration crackdown after a series of controversies, including the deaths of several American citizens following encounters with immigration officers.

“We will investigate the administration weaponizing DHS against Americans, its out-of-control immigration policies, and its blatantly corrupt self-dealing. The American people expect nothing less, and we will deliver,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who is poised to chair the House Homeland Security Committee in the next Congress.

While Democrats want to investigate the full breadth of the Trump administration’s immigration policies, including changes to immigration courts and efforts to throttle legal immigration to the United States, multiple aides and lawmakers told Blue Light News that much of the action on Capitol Hill will center around deportations that appear to have happened without due process, aggressive practices in arrests and conditions at detentions facilities.

Democrats also plan to review how DHS has spent a historic influx of funds from a series of reconciliation bills — including controversial purchases of jets for use by Noem, warehouses intended to operate as detention facilities and other department acquisitions that may have benefitted administration allies.

As part of this push, they plan to also pull in a raft of lower-level and former officials for testimony.

At a Monday press conference in Long Beach, California, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, stressed that investigations into “abuses of ICE and DHS” will rank high among committee priorities — alongside investigations into the Trump family’s business dealings, disgraced deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and “corporate corruption.”

“What has been happening is horrific,” Garcia said. “But folks like Stephen MIller, Donald Trump and the horrific people they have in power to do this harm think they can get away with frankly these crimes and this inhumanity … you will be held accountable, you will be held investigated.”

“There is no moving forward without justice,” he added.

Other potential House committee chairs are also homing in on immigration enforcement as a top area for immediate congressional oversight after the midterms. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, as well as the House and Senate Judiciary committees also have jurisdiction over immigration operations. Aides say the incoming chairs of all of these committees are planning on working together to conduct oversight of DHS.

“This is a team sport,” said the House Democratic aide. “One of the Democratic campaign’s overwhelming themes has been accountability, and committees have an appetite to do more oversight work. So this is going to be a multicommittee effort.”

That said, the number of committees that are planning immigration investigations could result in a morass of similar probes if House Democratic leadership fails to manage committee chairs with differing priorities and personal styles. Republicans already experienced this during the Biden administration, when the chairs of the House Judiciary and Oversight committees did not clearly coordinate in their oversight of immigration policy and often held similar hearings with limited results.

Much of Democrats’ final approach will depend on the outcome of the midterm elections. While it is expected that Democrats will retake control of the House, if they also take back the Senate they could exert even more pressure on the administration by throttling the confirmation of nominees and leverage more resources for investigations.

But even just Democratic control of the House, which is seen in Washington as an all but certain outcome, would give Democratic committee chairs the ability to issue subpoenas for administration officials to testify before their committees and produce documents of import for committee investigations. The House could also always move to impeach the president and other top officials, though Democrats across the party’s ideological divides have for now ruled out a third impeachment of Trump, since it would likely fail to secure enough Republican Senate votes to result in his removal from office.

In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security said that “political attacks will not deter DHS from carrying out its lawful mission.”

“Congressional oversight should not be used as a vehicle to obstruct the department’s ability to secure the border, remove dangerous criminal aliens, disrupt transnational criminal organizations, and defend the homeland,” DHS added.

House Democrats also plan to focus on Noem’s tenure. Garcia confirmed in an interview on MS Now last week that his committee will be scrutinizing her tenure, even though she and former DHS adviser Corey Lewandowski have both left the department.

But many Democratic lawmakers are incensed about actions taken under Mullin’s tenure, including the raid on Omar’s residence.

“We are going to drag Markwayne Mullin into the Judiciary committee and give him the full Jack Smith treatment as a result of these raids,” Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee, said in an interview earlier this month on MSNow, referring to the former special counsel who led federal prosecutions against Trump.

Her comments indicate that some Democratic lawmakers want to make a spectacle out of Mullin. Republicans regularly dragged Smith to testify before congressional committees as they sought to tar investigations into the president’s alleged criminal conduct.

Democrats are also eager to use their subpoena and investigative powers to compel testimony from White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, who wields considerable influence over the administration’s immigration policy, and border czar Tom Homan, who is accused of taking a cash bribe from a major government contractor.

White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said in a statement that “Democrats have no agenda to improve the lives of Americans — their only agenda is to continue to demonize ICE law enforcement and continue their decade long witch hunt against President Trump and his administration.”

Homan has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

Oversight work is a hallmark of divided government, especially since the party in control of Congress is often unlikely to secure presidential support for major pieces of messaging legislation. But parties have at times squandered those opportunities.

Committees are trying to put resources in place ahead of the elections to speed up this work, since investigations inherently take time as staff interview witnesses and pursue relevant documents and records. As the midterm elections approach, Democrats poised to lead committees with relevant jurisdiction over the Department of Homeland Security have begun staffing up in anticipation of a change in control of Congress.

New Hampshire Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan, is poised to take the gavel of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee should her party prevail in November. Hassan, who already began probing contracting decisions at DHS from her more limited perch as the top Democratic senator on the Joint Economic Commission, is hiring staff and preparing to continue her oversight work atop the Senate Homeland Security panel in the next Congress.

For now, House Democrats — mainly Garcia and Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who is poised to take over the Judiciary Committee — are vowing they will coordinate their efforts and work together.

“We view this as a responsibility that belongs to every committee and every member of congress … this is just an overwhelming mountain of corruption and authoritarianism that we face,” Raskin said.

Congress

John Barrasso to campaign with Ken Paxton

Published

12 hours ago

October 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered seat.

Barrasso said in an interview that he plans to join a bus tour with Paxton, who is locked in a tossup battle with Democrat James Talarico despite Donald Trump carrying Texas by roughly 14 percentage points two years ago.

The No. 2 leader, Barrasso is the most senior Senate Republican to hit the trail in Texas in the general election. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has held fundraisers with Paxton but has not publicly campaigned with him.

Barrasso also plans to campaign with former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan and Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky. He was also in South Carolina this week with Trump and said he had made stops in Iowa, Ohio and Kansas — all home to battleground Senate races.

Republicans are navigating steep headwinds as they try to fend off Democratic momentum and voter dissatisfaction to keep their majority. But Barrasso said he was “very optimistic” that the party would keep control of the Senate.

“There’s a lot of energy at every event I’ve gone to, and of course there are eight, 10 races now, a number for sure, that are within the margin of error,” Barrasso said. “So there’s a lot at stake in the next week and a half, and nothing’s going to be left on the field.”

He said races for Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire are still within the GOP’s grasp. But Republicans are also on defense in states like Kansas, Iowa and Texas where Trump won easily in 2024.

Republicans have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Texas to boost Paxton, even as some in the party lament some of the campaign decisions he’s made.

“I mean, I hope Ken Paxton wins. … But you know, Ken Paxton also has some responsibility here to be a better candidate and to raise some of his own money and to not be a drain on the system,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in an interview Thursday. “Having said all that, I hope he’s a senator.”

Democrats are now pushing into even deeper red territory, including South Carolina and Mississippi. Barrasso, in the interview, said that he was “very confident” that Republicans would hold both states, which have seen an influx of late spending.

“You know the president has really opened up his campaign coffers, and he’s fully invested time as well as money,” Barrasso said. “Every candidate wishes there were more resources, every candidate, so there’s no surprise there, but we feel we’re fully resourced to get … the message out.”

Congress

Capitol agenda: Bennie Thompson warns about Dems’ late bet

Published

13 hours ago

October 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

National Democrats finally went into Mississippi this week, putting over $1 million behind Scott Colom‘s campaign to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

To the state’s most prominent Democrat, it was welcome — but too late.

“Anything is appreciated, and I don’t want to seem like people here are not appreciative. But you know, we’ve been singing this song for almost a year,” Rep. Bennie Thompson said in an interview. “Scott is a quality candidate and he could’ve benefited from early recognition from the Senate Majority PAC and others.”

Thompson’s sentiments reflect ongoing frustration among some Democrats who have been beating the drum for more national investment in Black candidates in races once seen as long shots that are now anything but.

“Mississippi people are ready for a new direction. They’re ready to fire Cindy Hyde-Smith. They want somebody that’s going to actually look out for our state, and it’s great that the country is starting to realize that,” Colom said in an interview.

The sentiments were also echoed by Florida Democrat Angie Nixon, who is on her own quest to defeat incumbent GOP Sen. Ashley Moody.

Nixon, referring more broadly to national Democratic donors, said the party needs to do more in her state, and stat.

“I can win. I’m going to win. We just need people to really lean into this moment right now,” she told Dasha Burns in the latest episode of The Conversation.

Neither the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nor Senate Majority PAC has publicly announced a Florida television buy on her behalf, but Nixon was clear that the DSCC has been “very helpful” recently, opening up doors to connect her with donors and having her participate in fundraisers with DSCC head Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

“They are now seeing that this seat is actually winnable,” Nixon said.

Colom has also been a part of DSCC fundraisers and Schumer has directed donors to him.

The Senate Majority PAC declined to comment. DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said Nixon and Colom are running “inspiring and energetic campaigns” and that her group is “committed to expanding the map as much as possible” despite limited resources and a flood of Republican money.

But Thompson argued that party leaders need to move much faster in the future to invest early in strong candidates who can mobilize the large populations of Black voters in Southern states that others deem unwinnable.

“The South in general is ripe for Democrats, but it has to be a sustained investment,” he said. “Given the loyalty that the African American population gives to the Democratic Party, it is just an ideal opportunity to grow the party and ultimately get some Democrats elected.”

“But,” he added, “that engagement can’t come two weeks or less before the general election.”

What else we’re watching:

— DEMOCRATS’ LOOMING TRADE BATTLE: Cracks in Democrats’ trade policy are starting to emerge within the party, even as candidates are presenting a united front on repealing Trump’s tariffs on the campaign trail. The simmering debate over how far to reject Trump’s trade agenda cuts across geography and ideology. It’s likely to bubble into public view in the coming months as Democrats prepare to assume more power in Congress and jump into the wide-open upcoming presidential primary.

— DEMS WANT MULLIN IN HOTSEAT: A top priority for Democrats if they get more power in Congress in November: Forcing the Trump administration’s controversial and unpopular immigration crackdown back in the headlines. And one of the people they plan to go after hard is Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin — the former lawmaker who was brought into the role in part because he was seen as someone who could play well with Congress, unlike former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. A House Democratic aide said that committees plan to look at how DHS under Mullin has failed to deploy body cameras to many immigration agents, allowed dismal conditions at immigration facilities and failed to cooperate with the department’s Inspector General.

Adam Wren, Daniel Desrochers and Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed to this report.