Congress
‘I’m glad I’m not on the ballot’: Senate GOP worries about its midterm edge
Senate Republicans are growing anxious about the midterms.
They once felt like they had a glidepath to keep or even grow their majority in November, unlike in the House, where GOP control is razor-thin and members have become increasingly on edge about Democrats returning to power.
But the mood is shifting, according to interviews with 10 GOP senators and aides, as the U.S. engages in open-ended war in the Middle East, rising oil prices threaten to slow the economy and President Donald Trump stokes intra-party divisions over an elections overhaul bill known as the SAVE America Act.
Some GOP senators are now openly predicting a tough battle to hold onto control as their party struggles to keep the focus on affordability policies that lawmakers want to make the centerpiece of their midterm campaign. The Senate passed a major housing bill this week but it faces an uncertain future in the House. Trump himself told Republican lawmakers Monday that housing is not a top concern for voters.
“I’m glad I’m not on the ballot,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a close Trump ally, said in an interview when asked how he was feeling about the November elections.
Republican senators are warning that the party writ large needs to hammer home cost-of-living measures — despite apparent disinterest and distractions from Trump, who they hope will lean into the housing bill fight. Recent polls have shown the Iran conflict and the resulting rise in prices are major worries for voters, even as the president downplays affordability concerns.
“Energy prices are high. Everything’s high,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another Trump ally. He added that Republicans should “take some votes to lower the costs.”
Democrats have to net four seats to win back control of the Senate — a tall order that still gives Republicans an inherent edge. But Republicans are playing defense in Maine and North Carolina, the two races widely viewed as the most likely flips, and they’re facing a messy Trump-fueled primary in Texas. Republicans view Michigan and Georgia as potential pick-ups, though Democrats think they’ve also been able to put states like Ohio and Alaska in play through strong candidate recruitment.
Asked about Trump’s claim that the party will be in trouble if it doesn’t pass the SAVE America Act, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this week that he believed the election is instead “going to be about the economy, and that’s why I think we’re focused on that.”
He also said that midterms are “always a little dicey” during the second term of a presidential administration.
But under pressure from Trump and a fervent base, Thune is teeing up what will likely be a multi-week debate on what the president calls his “No. 1 priority” — the SAVE America Act legislation that would institute tough new citizenship and photo ID requirements in order to cast a ballot. Trump wants to expand this legislation even further to prohibit gender-affirming surgery for children and restrict mail-in voting.
The bill lacks the votes for Senate passage, yet Thune and his conference are being lobbied hard by the right flank to revamp or eliminate the filibuster as a means of jamming the legislation through — a strategy that also doesn’t have the votes.
This intra-party tension is on full display in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn is facing a May runoff against Texas Attorney General and MAGA favorite Ken Paxton. The elections bill has taken centerstage as Cornyn and Paxton vie for Trump’s endorsement, with Cornyn this week throwing his support behind scrapping the filibuster to pass the legislation.
Trump’s pressure campaign over the bill, including his decision to use the Texas race to make a play for its passage, has privately infuriated a broad swath of Senate Republicans, according to two people granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Republicans have privately conveyed to Trump that the voting measure can’t pass, while Thune has also publicly warned against linking a possible Cornyn endorsement to the bill.
Trump, however, told Fox News Radio Friday that he still intends to endorse in the race, but the “main thing I have to do is find out who’s going to get the SAVE America Act approved.” Senate Republicans are fearful that if Cornyn fails to win his runoff, the best-case scenario will cost the party hundreds of millions of dollars to defend against Democratic nominee James Talarico.
The election bill fight has spilled beyond Texas, as GOP senators are being flooded with public warnings from high-profile figures on the right that voters won’t turn out in the midterms or donate money unless the legislation passes. Trump has said passing the bill will “guarantee the midterms.”
White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said in a statement Friday that Trump “is the unequivocal leader of the Republican party, and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people.”
“It’s clear that he has delivered for Americans with a secure border, cooling inflation, working-class tax cuts, new trade deals, new drug pricing deals and trillions in investments,” Wales added. “The White House is keen to tout these victories in the months ahead as we continue to work to Make America Great Again.”
In the meantime, recent polls show that it’s the unfolding Iran conflict and cost-of-living issues that voters care most about.
Just over half of voters oppose military action against Iran, compared to 40 percent who support it, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this week. Nearly three-fourths said they were either very or somewhat concerned the war in the Middle East will lead to higher oil and gas prices.
In contrast, a Marist Poll also released this week found that 59 percent of Americans, when asked to consider November’s elections, said they wanted to ensure that everyone who wants to vote can do so — compared to 41 percent, who said their priority was making sure that no one who is ineligible can vote.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in an interview that he gives the president credit for making a “tough decision” on Iran but that “it’s not going to be necessarily good for the midterms.”
“Do I feel confident? I never feel confident,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough midterm.”
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) when speaking to reporters this week urged patience on rising gasoline prices but acknowledged if they persist into the summer, “that’s always bad.”
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), one of the GOP conference’s louder Trump critics, was more blunt during a Fox News interview this week, saying it could be a “disastrous election” for the party if the war drags on. Trump announced Friday evening that the U.S. military had carried out a major bombing operation in an apparent attempt to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway which carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil.
Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), whose state is very much in play with his exit, said he’s seeing parallels to 2018, when Democrats won the House amid deep dissatisfaction with Republican leaders on Capitol Hill and in the Trump White House.
Tillis, who frequently vocalizes the concerns many of his colleagues express privately, said some Republicans have asked him, “‘why are you saying this out loud?’”
“Democrats are going to … take advantage of the increase in energy and drive the affordability message and we’ve got to have an answer for affordability,” he explained.
“We’ve just got to be realistic about it,” Tillis added. “We’ve got a voter enthusiasm gap that we need to address.”
Congress
‘Paradigm shift:’ How Trump’s budget request will keep everyone guessing
In the wonky world of federal budgeting is the most tired cliche of all: The president proposes, and Congress disposes.
In other words, any White House budget request is nothing more than a political draft that’s ultimately going to be significantly altered — or torn to shreds — by lawmakers who hold the constitutional power of the purse.
But this administration’s moves to wrest spending authority away from Congress have turned that dynamic on its head. A year of funding clawbacks, shutdowns and Supreme Court challenges has changed the way many in Washington are looking at President Donald Trump’s budget plan released Friday. Ultimately, even if Congress refuses to approve Trump’s latest funding wishes, the administration may implement many of them anyway.
Plus, it’s not just Congress and the White House involved in the budget conversation right now — everyone is still waiting to see if the Supreme Court weighs in on the legality of the so-called pocket rescissions that Trump employed last year to circumvent Congress and unilaterally cancel nearly $5 billion in foreign aid spending.
“It’s hard enough to get 12 appropriations bills done and even harder when you’re not sure if the deal that you strike is even a deal,” said Joe Carlile, an associate director at OMB during the Biden administration and longtime House Appropriations aide who now runs Bluestem Consulting.
The pocket rescissions gambit refers to occasions where an administration sends Congress a list of previously-approved funding to eliminate with less than 45 days to go until the end of the current fiscal year, then “pockets” — or withholds — that funding until a new fiscal year begins, at which point it is considered expired.
Though the Supreme Court, in a preliminary decision last fall, allowed the Office of Management and Budget to proceed with canceling the foreign aid funding, justices haven’t yet weighed in on the larger pocket rescissions question. That could only empower Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, certainly the most powerful OMB director in recent memory, in his approach and the expansiveness of his mandate.
“Under President Trump’s bold leadership, every tool in the executive fiscal toolbox has been utilized to achieve real savings,” Vought wrote in an introduction to the administration’s newest fiscal framework.
“A historic paradigm shift in the budget process is occurring and is producing real results for the American public,” he added.
These days, Vought’s aggressive use of his budget tools looms over every budget debate and document, including the one released Friday. Vought’s proposal asks Congress to approve a massive $1.5 trillion defense request as well as a $73 billion cut to domestic programs, including many that lawmakers refused to cut last year.
“Given the Administration’s focus on nondefense discretionary spending reductions, most budget analysts assume that this would be the target of rescissions if they were unsuccessful in the appropriation process,” said G. William Hoagland, a senior vice president of the Bipartisan Policy Center who spent decades on Capitol Hill as a senior Republican budget aide. “It does change the way we look at the request.”
In another power move Friday, the Trump administration is asking Congress to ram through $350 billion in defense spending to assist Iran conflict through the party-line budget reconciliation process as an end-run on the Senate filibuster. That recommendation would upend one of the last bipartisan traditions on Capitol Hill: funding the government through the dozen annual government funding bills.
The proposal has Democrats and Washington lobbyists now closely watching the budget proposal and OMB’s current spending moves for signs of what the White House may try to muscle through, rescind or delay next — and how they should approach Appropriations Committee markups later this year in the House and Senate.
Meanwhile, less than a year after Elon Musk and DOGE rampaged through the federal bureaucracy, the government — just five months past its last major shutdown — remains in the grip of a partial closure, with a deal to fully open the Department of Homeland Security still on the table.
Congressional appropriators have sought to assert their independence in previous budget battles. Still, their power has been declining for the better part of three decades now — and the way Washington budgets seems increasingly disrupted.
“While the Administration proposes a budget, Congress holds the power of the purse,” Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said in a statement Friday.
True, but who “disposes” is as unclear as ever.
Congress
Trump asks Congress to supersize military budget, slash domestic programs
President Donald Trump called Friday for Congress to back a $1.5 trillion defense budget alongside yawning reductions to domestic programs — making official the ambitious military increase he’s been teasing for months.
In a slate of budget fact sheets ahead of an expected broader rollout of the president’s fiscal blueprint, the White House detailed a military budget hike of more than 40 percent for the fiscal year that begins in October. The Trump administration is formally proposing Republicans in Congress enact a large chunk of that defense cash — some $350 billion — using the party-line reconciliation process to skirt the Senate filibuster and forgo bipartisan negotiations.
Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are starting to embrace the concept of sidelining Democrats to boost Pentagon dollars and immigration enforcement accounts currently unfunded amid the broader Department of Homeland Security shutdown. But Trump will struggle to build enough political will on his own side of the aisle to fulfill his defense goals as fiscal conservatives demand commensurate spending cuts after grudgingly backing the multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package Republicans enacted along party lines last summer.
While calling for a historic increase in the military’s budget, the White House is also seeking a 10 percent cut to nondefense spending, with a proposed reduction of $73 billion from federal programs outside the military. Major targets of the administration’s proposed spending reductions are environmental programs across many federal agencies, including nixing $15 billion in grants for efforts such as renewable energy technology and $4 billion in transportation funds for programs supporting infrastructure to charge electric vehicles.
The administration is recommending that Congress eliminate $1.6 billion in research programs run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and asking lawmakers to find $45 million in savings by slashing the Interior Department’s renewable energy programs. The White House wants another $642 million in cuts to “woke and wasteful international financial institutions” within the Treasury Department budget.
The blueprint, prepared by White House budget chief Russ Vought, proposes the elimination of current fair housing initiatives at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, as well as the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund that awards funding to community banks and other financial institutions that lend to communities traditionally underserved by the banking industry.
It also calls for Congress to zero out funding for the Commerce Department agency that promotes minority-owned businesses and the National Endowment for Democracy, which promotes freedom in countries with authoritarian regimes that threaten U.S. interests.
For the second year in a row, Trump’s fiscal framework arrives months late and is not expected to include all of the data lawmakers rely on to write funding bills for the upcoming fiscal year. Last year, Republican lawmakers were still pressing Vought for those details well into the summer.
Congress
Republicans want to go it alone on ICE funding. It might be a slippery slope.
If last year’s Republican megabill served as Congress’ gateway drug to party-line government funding, the GOP’s latest spending plan makes clear it was habit-forming.
Nine months ago, Republicans used the budget reconciliation process to skirt a Democratic filibuster and enact more than $280 billion for the Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security. It shattered conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill that reconciliation’s special power couldn’t — and shouldn’t — be used to circumvent the across-the-aisle work Congress does each year to fund federal agencies.
Now President Donald Trump has given congressional Republicans until June 1 to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement — an entire government agency — through a partisan process that won’t require a single Democratic vote. Republicans are also mulling whether to fund a war in the Middle East that same way, with the White House considering a $200 billion request for supplemental funding for the Pentagon.
Republicans say this is happening because Democrats refuse to back a full Department of Homeland Security funding measure without adding guardrails on immigration enforcement activities the GOP finds intolerable, leading to the current record-breaking shutdown. Democrats also are unlikely to support giving the Trump administration additional dollars to bolster its military presence in Iran.
“Democrats have put us where we are, and we have to deal with it,” Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota, a senior Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, told reporters Monday. “We don’t have a choice.”
But Hoeven also acknowledged it could be a slippery slope. Asked whether he was worried about setting a new precedent, he conceded, “Me, as an appropriator? Yeah.”
Democrats previously used their own party-line bills during the Biden administration to fund programs opposed by Republicans, such as an $80 billion infusion for IRS tax enforcement. But that was in addition to the funding agencies received through regular appropriations, not as a substitute for it.
Democrats are pushing back on the idea they are responsible for the GOP’s go-it-alone approach — and they are warning about dire consequences.
Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a senior appropriator, said it would be “a tragic mistake” for Republicans to bankroll a war while sidelining their minority party colleagues.
Enacting funding through reconciliation, Coons said, “requires no compromise with the other party. And if that becomes the sole way we fund the core functions of government, that is a bad idea.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune suggested Thursday that the fallout from the current funding fight could have long-term implications, warning that it’s “not good for the country or for the future of the appropriations process or, for that matter, the future of the Senate.”
It’s just the latest blow to bipartisan norms of the congressional appropriations process during Trump’s second term. White House budget director Russ Vought has executed a playbook for undercutting cross-party funding negotiations, and Republican leaders have gone along with those tactics, including the stopgap funding patch that riled Democrats last spring and the enactment of a clawbacks package last summer that canceled billions of dollars Congress previously cleared with bipartisan support.
Many Republicans aren’t happy with how the latest step is unfolding, with top GOP appropriators especially concerned about funding a war effort without Democratic buy-in.
“I would prefer not to,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said late last month about clearing an emergency military package through the party-line process. But, he added, “we’ll wait and see. A lot of that depends on what the Democrats want to do.”
Three Hill Republican aides, granted anonymity to speak candidly, privately forecasted that the current funding breakdown will fuel a tit-for-tat future for the appropriations process. The worry is that Republican presidents will routinely be forced to use reconciliation to clear immigration enforcement funding through Congress, and Democratic presidents will have to use it to fund nondefense efforts GOP leaders are less keen on boosting.
Republicans are now exploring enacting immigration enforcement funding for the remainder of Trump’s presidency — not just the current fiscal year.
Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, the top Democrat on the Homeland Security funding panel, said a future Congress under Democratic control could follow the GOP’s example and use reconciliation to fund agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency or the Department of Health and Human Services.
“So I certainly have concerns with a bad precedent that they will be setting,” Cuellar said in an interview Thursday.
Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, said “the big deal here” is “shoving the dysfunctional discretionary stuff into reconciliation.”
“Because of the ability to do party-line legislating in the reconciliation bills, it allows a back door to party-line discretionary appropriating,” he said in an interview.
Glassman also sees the creeping use of reconciliation as a way to sidestep mutually negotiated guardrails on spending. Limitations on use of money, and how much time agencies have to spend it, are longtime hallmarks of bipartisan funding negotiations.
“If you throw money into these bills, then you lose sort of the control aspect that they love to put into the appropriations with the limitation provisions,” Glassman said.
Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said last week that Democrats’ refusal to fund the Border Patrol or ICE without major policy changes “sets a precedent that they may one day come to regret.”
Other senior congressional appropriators contend that the bipartisan agreements Collins helped broker in recent months are proof that the annual funding process is working and that reconciliation is not a workable alternative. Despite the DHS drama, Congress managed to approve more than $1.6 trillion for every other federal department following a 43-day government shutdown last fall.
Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the House’s leading Democratic appropriator, said in a statement this week that “reconciliation will never be a substitute for the appropriations process.”
“Republicans must realize our country is safer and stronger when government funding decisions are made by both Democrats and Republicans in the House and in the Senate,” she added.
Riley Rogerson contributed to this report.
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