Politics
A month into Iran, the GOP’s political reality sinks in
In Nevada, a gallon of gas is approaching $5. In Pennsylvania, farmers are fretting about the prices of fertilizer. And in Michigan, supply chain woes are throwing a wrench into the manufacturing and auto industry operations.
One month into the war in Iran, a new political reality is sinking in for Republicans in these and other battlegrounds: The war may not end as quickly as they initially hoped, and the literal and figurative costs keep rising.
Each week the war drags on prolongs the pain Americans feel. Economists have warned gas prices could continue to remain high for months even if the U.S. immediately de-escalates in Iran. Extended conflict also raises the risk of increased casualties, especially if U.S. servicemembers are deployed to on-the-ground combat. And it could sour MAGA voters whose support of President Donald Trump hinged, in part, on their opposition to “forever wars” and foreign regime change.
Some Republicans worry the war will depress turnout among staunch “America First” proponents ahead of a crucial midterm election. It’s not yet a political crisis, GOP strategists and county chairs across the country said. They’re still willing to trust the president — for now.
But they’re also finding it harder to brush off the consequences.
“What’s the end game? I don’t think the president has been clear about that,” said Todd Gillman, chair of the Monroe County Republican Party in Michigan. “The gas prices are a problem. We’re concerned how this might affect the midterms.”
A POLITICO poll this month found the president’s most loyal voters continue to back his decision to attack Iran, even though some say it violates MAGA principles or even breaks his campaign promise not to start new wars. But it also revealed real political risk if more U.S. troops are killed or the conflict extends much longer than the promised four to six weeks.
“I don’t think it’s going to impact Republicans’ desire to vote Republican, but I do believe that that turnout will be an issue,” said Craig Berland, chair of the Maricopa County, Arizona, Republican Party. “If the war drags on, that is going to impact the turnout, unless we are very, very successful in communicating and educating. And that’s our plan, to do that.”
The situation in Iran remains in flux, and Trump could choose to withdraw U.S. support and end the country’s involvement at any moment.
Until then, the prolonged conflict is complicating the White House’s cost-of-living message, which voters consistently say is their top concern. In recent months, Trump and Vice President JD Vance embarked on an affordability messaging tour, dotting the country to deliver speeches about the administration’s wins in lowering costs and providing relief for working-class families.
But the affordability road show has screeched to a halt in the month since the U.S. launched its war in Iran.
“These types of major events can become all-consuming,” said Buzz Jacobs, a GOP strategist and White House official under George W. Bush. “They certainly suck up political capital, and they make it very difficult for the most senior officials, particularly the President, to focus on any other strategic objective.”
After Bush invaded Iraq, Jacobs recalled, a digital board outside the Situation Room listed the same meeting topics for weeks: “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, something else, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Jacobs said.
The White House pointed to polling that shows a majority of Republican voters back the Iran war.
“The President has been clear that, while there may be some short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, ultimately oil prices will quickly drop once the operation’s clear objectives have been achieved and America will be back on its solid trajectory of cooling inflation and robust growth thanks to this Administration’s proven economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance,” spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.
In several battleground counties, GOP chairs are holding out hope that the impact will be temporary even as the reality of the war sets in and gas prices creep toward a national average of $4 per gallon.
“Yes, it’s painful now. We all realize that it’s painful, with the gas prices,” said Carson City, Nevada GOP chair Susan Ruch. “I know prices are going to go up — but I do know this is short term compared to World War III.”
That optimism is shared by Decatur County, Georgia, GOP Vice Chair Jesse Williard, who also believes gas prices will plummet quickly after the war ends, setting up Republicans to buck historic midterms trends and post a strong showing in November.
“The economy, I think between now and then, is going to be great,” he said. “If it goes the other direction, it may be horrible, but I anticipate it’s going to be a red wave.”
But other GOP county chairs see early fractures ahead of November’s election, driven by surging costs that are already causing pain for businesses and consumers. In the Phoenix metro area, Berland, the Maricopa County chair, said door-to-door canvassing has become more difficult since the onset of the war.
“We’re even going around canvassing neighborhoods and registered Republicans are yelling out the door, ‘go away, or I’m calling the police,’” Berland said. “I find that very discouraging.”
Voters’ frustrations, he said, stem from “the war or the economy. And the economy is defined largely by energy prices.”
Across Rural America, the pain is even more acute.
Farmers in Pennsylvania, North Dakota and other agriculture-heavy states are feeling the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which sent fertilizer prices skyrocketing just ahead of planting season. Some producers have had to shake up their plans last minute and plant new crops that are less reliant on fertilizer.
The scramble could lead to lower crop yields, which potentially means higher food prices this summer, North Dakota Farmers Union President Matt Perdue said.
Farmers have long been loyal to the GOP and Trump. But the war now poses another massive financial headache on top of the tariffs that have increased their production costs and evaporated markets abroad where they could sell their crops.
“We’ve had just a pile of uncertainty, a pile of volatility in the markets that we buy from and sell to and we’re just creating more volatility, more uncertainty as we move ahead,” Perdue said.
A chorus of farm groups — including the often Trump-aligned American Farm Bureau — petitioned the White House for a bailout last week. And the agriculture lobby is requesting an ad hoc aid package from Congress to cover the mounting fertilizer costs.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania, GOP chair Pete Begley acknowledged that supply chain woes and high prices are pinching some in his community. But he’s willing to offer Trump a long runway before he gets worried.
“If it turns into six months later, we’re still there, and the Ayatollah’s son is still supposedly in charge, that I think will cause concern,” Begley said. “But for now, I think people are standing by the president.”
Bo French, the GOP nominee for a spot on the Texas Railroad Commission, doubled down on Monday on a xenophobic post that disparaged Asian American students at the University of Texas after receiving blowback from fellow Republicans over the weekend.
On X, French was quick to turn his viral post, which had received more than 35 million views as of Monday afternoon, into a fundraising pledge, calling the criticism he has received an attack from “the radical left and their allies.”
He also stood by his post in an appearance on the conservative radio broadcast “The Mark Davis Show” on Monday.
“The radical left, you know, they want to make everything about race,” he said on the show. “Of course, there are some people in our party who are uncomfortable talking about those things because it scares them.”
The social media firestorm started after French posted a photo on X on Sunday of UT students celebrating in the crowd and wrote: “I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I didn’t believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.”
The post drew swift rebukes from Democrats and some Texas Republicans, including outgoing Sen. John Cornyn — who called on other Republican officials to “condemn the intolerance and racism” — as well as several state lawmakers.
During his radio appearance, French said his social media post is a criticism of admissions and hiring policies at UT, the state’s public flagship, that he said discriminated against Texas residents.
“It’s not racist to point out that we should be favoring Texans over foreigners,” French said.
There’s no indication that the students French targeted are foreigners. Most of UT’s student body is made up of Texans.
According to state law, Texas high school students in the top 5% of their class are automatically admitted to UT, and around 80% of the student body is from the state.
He also took a shot at Cornyn and other Republicans who condemned him, saying many were from the establishment wing of the party that opposed him in the GOP primary.
“What is he doing to help elect [Ken] Paxton? So we have to ask those questions,” he said. “I just think we should be prioritizing our Republican platform, which, by the way, is an America First platform, which prioritizes Americans.”
French, who is running for a seat on the influential statewide body that regulates its oil and gas industry, has a history of making controversial statements.
Earlier this year, he suggested Republicans should fear Islam and advocated for deporting 100 million people.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has a simmering Latino revolt on his hands. Quelling it could come down to Texas.
A group of Latino Democratic officials — including operatives and local and congressional leaders — are pushing Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, to pounce on late-breaking momentum in the Texas gubernatorial race, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa is vying to unseat incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott.
The effort to get Beshear to expand the map comes as the DGA eyes several swing states — like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia or Nevada — where the party is focused on keeping or flipping governors’ mansions. But underlying it all is the Democratic Party’s fight to staunch the hemorrhaging of Latino voters from their ranks, and Texas sits at the center of their losses.
“One takeaway from 2024 is that Democrats writ large need to be a whole lot more bold when it comes to their approach, their strategy, their thinking,” said Sergio Gonzalez, one of the operatives involved in the effort to recruit DGA’s support who’s working with Latino candidates across the country. “How do [Democrats] build the coalition that it’s going to take for them to ultimately be successful? Gina is very much a part of that task.”
The Latino operatives and lawmakers made their case in a letter earlier this month asking the DGA to drop $10 million on Hinojosa’s race, pointing tomultiple polls that put the state representative within striking distance of Abbott. An investment from the DGA, they argued, could help make inroads with Latino voters and give Democrats what’s proved to be an elusive statewide victory in deep-red Texas.
Instead, the Latino coalition behind the letter said they got snubbed.
The DGA’s response to the letter, shared with the Latino organizers last Sunday and viewed by Blue Light News, called Hinojosa an “outstanding candidate running a strong campaign,” and touted the work it’s already done investing in campaign staff and research in coordination with the campaign.
But the Latino leaders were ultimately disappointed by a lack of commitment from the DGA to financially boost Hinojosa. “We would be grateful for your help in raising the resources necessary to expand the map and go big in Texas,” the DGA wrote in its response. “We welcome your fundraising collaboration to support Gina’s campaign.”
The group said that after receiving the DGA’s response, they reached out to the organization and requested a meeting with Beshear, but they have not heard back.
The DGA, however, says it’s not taking anything off the table.
“The DGA is excited to be supporting Gina Hinojosa’s campaign for governor of Texas and has been working directly with her team since she’s launched,” DGA communications director Sam Newton said in a statement to Blue Light News. “We’ve been in touch and have made clear we look forward to setting up a meeting to find a productive path forward.”
The DGA also has not ruled out investing in Hinojosa’s race, the organization told Blue Light News.
“Gina Hinojosa is a great candidate and running a great campaign,” Beshear told Blue Light News in a statement. “We are currently investing by paying expenses and recently providing staff. My goal as chair of the DGA this year is to win as many races as we can and that’s exactly what we’re doing by going on offense and expanding the map.”
Hinojosa said the DGA has been “a great partner since the beginning,” and that her campaign has a “good working relationship” with them. Asked if she believes they’ll spend for her in the final stretch, she said, “I sure hope they do.”
While Texas is a central focus of the fight Democrats and Republicans are waging to win the Latino vote, it’s states like Arizona and Nevada that have more competitive governor’s races — and are likely to showcase the influence of Latino voters in 2028. The DGA has made seven-figure investments in those states, running Spanish-language ads since May in Arizona. In their conference last week, Beshear announced a new “expand the map” fund to collect more resources to flip more seats, which could help races like Texas.
But the lack of assurances on whether the DGA will step in with a financial salve for Hinojosa has been cold comfort for the Latinos backing her. The result is what operatives called a “sweeping frustration” among their ranks at what they view as “dismissiveness” from the DGA.
“In just over a month, people will cast their first ballots in Texas. It’s not like we have tons of time to iron this out,” said Gonzalez, who helped organize the letter to the DGA.
Hinojosa’s race is rated likely Republican, and she is facing a significant fundraising disadvantage to Abbott. Texas is flooded with media markets among the most expensive in the country.
Yet the operatives argue Hinojosa presents one of the best Democratic opportunities in the state in years. And they believe her campaign could get a boost from voters turning out for Democrat James Talarico in the Senate race, as well as down-ballot candidates with high name identification like Bobby Pulido.
“What is especially egregious in this particular situation is that she was coming from behind,” Jess Rocketto, another Latino operative working closely with Latino candidates who helped coordinate the letter, told Blue Light News. “Now that she has come up from behind, they still don’t want to invest. What is the DGA for in that case?”
And the operatives say the frustrations in Texas could ultimately land hardest on Beshear, who’s built a national profile as a Democrat able to flip a red-state governor’s seat held by an incumbent. He’s also been actively courting the Latino vote, collaborating frequently with top Latino creators like Carlos Eduardo Espina.
“We would really think, just to be honest with you, that Governor Beshear would understand this, especially given that he has presidential aspirations,” Gonzalez said. “It’s very important that he understand this.”
Another Latino operative who signed the letter, granted anonymity to speak candidly, argued Beshear will need these same Latinos if he moves to build a coalition for 2028. “He’s not being smart about his politics,” they said.
And in Texas, the operative warned that a failure to invest in Hinojosa now could not only make her uphill battle even harder, but it could also make it “next to impossible” to recruit a strong Latino candidate in the future.
“If they can’t show that they’re showing up for their people, Texas is written off for Democrats for a generation,” they said.
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Prominent Texas Republicans are denouncing Bo French, a Republican nominee to join the state’s railroad commission, after he made a xenophobic post describing a group of Asian American students attending a University of Texas football game as a “problem.”
French posted a photo on X of UT students celebrating in the crowd and wrote: “I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I didn’t believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.”
Sen. John Cornyn immediately condemned the post as racist and called on other Republican officials to speak out.
“This is the Republican nominee for statewide office,” Cornyn wrote on X. “Are other Republican elected officials going to condemn the intolerance and racism, or look the other way while it becomes normalized. This is how great political parties self-destruct. Sad.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott also rejected French’s message in a statement shared with Blue Light News, saying the picture instead showed Texans united behind their college football team, which had just defeated top-ranked Ohio State.
“That is not my message,” Abbott said. “A selective picture of Longhorn fans celebrating our biggest home victory-ever-actually shows a way that Texans unite. We all support our college football teams.”
“The way we win the state is the same way we win football games,” Abbott added. “We unite under the brand of Texas.”
Abbott also defended Texas’ hard-line immigration policies, saying unity “doesn’t mean that Texas cannot also lead in having the toughest immigration laws of any state in America and freezing H1B visas at our universities.”
Several Republican members of the Texas House also joined in the backlash. State Rep. Lacey Hull urged French to remove the post, writing: “This post breaks my heart. I see college kids cheering on their football team. I see Texans.”
State Rep. Jared Patterson called the post “racist” and said it demeaned students because of their race or ethnicity.
“There is absolutely nothing Christian or conservative about looking at a crowd of young Texans at a college football game, seeing the color of their skin, and declaring that they are a ‘problem,’” Patterson wrote on X. “These are 20-year-old kids cheering for their university — not political props and not targets for racial attacks.”
Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows similarly wrote that opposing immigration policy does not justify “demeaning people because of their race or ethnicity,” adding that French’s post has “crossed the line” and should be deleted. State Rep. Jeff Leach offered a more succinct request: “Delete this, Bo.”
But French also drew support from some Republicans who attacked Cornyn for condemning him. Former Texas GOP Chair Matt Rinaldi accused Cornyn and other Republicans of mortgaging “our children’s future for government handouts and cheap labor,” while state Rep. Andy Hopper called Cornyn a “smug globalist” who had brought the policies at issue to Texas.
French has repeatedly engaged in inflammatory rhetoric. Earlier this year, he suggested Republicans should fear Islam and advocated for deporting 100 million people.
Representatives for French and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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