Politics
A month into Iran, the GOP’s political reality sinks in
In Nevada, a gallon of gas is approaching $5. In Pennsylvania, farmers are fretting about the prices of fertilizer. And in Michigan, supply chain woes are throwing a wrench into the manufacturing and auto industry operations.
One month into the war in Iran, a new political reality is sinking in for Republicans in these and other battlegrounds: The war may not end as quickly as they initially hoped, and the literal and figurative costs keep rising.
Each week the war drags on prolongs the pain Americans feel. Economists have warned gas prices could continue to remain high for months even if the U.S. immediately de-escalates in Iran. Extended conflict also raises the risk of increased casualties, especially if U.S. servicemembers are deployed to on-the-ground combat. And it could sour MAGA voters whose support of President Donald Trump hinged, in part, on their opposition to “forever wars” and foreign regime change.
Some Republicans worry the war will depress turnout among staunch “America First” proponents ahead of a crucial midterm election. It’s not yet a political crisis, GOP strategists and county chairs across the country said. They’re still willing to trust the president — for now.
But they’re also finding it harder to brush off the consequences.
“What’s the end game? I don’t think the president has been clear about that,” said Todd Gillman, chair of the Monroe County Republican Party in Michigan. “The gas prices are a problem. We’re concerned how this might affect the midterms.”
A POLITICO poll this month found the president’s most loyal voters continue to back his decision to attack Iran, even though some say it violates MAGA principles or even breaks his campaign promise not to start new wars. But it also revealed real political risk if more U.S. troops are killed or the conflict extends much longer than the promised four to six weeks.
“I don’t think it’s going to impact Republicans’ desire to vote Republican, but I do believe that that turnout will be an issue,” said Craig Berland, chair of the Maricopa County, Arizona, Republican Party. “If the war drags on, that is going to impact the turnout, unless we are very, very successful in communicating and educating. And that’s our plan, to do that.”
The situation in Iran remains in flux, and Trump could choose to withdraw U.S. support and end the country’s involvement at any moment.
Until then, the prolonged conflict is complicating the White House’s cost-of-living message, which voters consistently say is their top concern. In recent months, Trump and Vice President JD Vance embarked on an affordability messaging tour, dotting the country to deliver speeches about the administration’s wins in lowering costs and providing relief for working-class families.
But the affordability road show has screeched to a halt in the month since the U.S. launched its war in Iran.
“These types of major events can become all-consuming,” said Buzz Jacobs, a GOP strategist and White House official under George W. Bush. “They certainly suck up political capital, and they make it very difficult for the most senior officials, particularly the President, to focus on any other strategic objective.”
After Bush invaded Iraq, Jacobs recalled, a digital board outside the Situation Room listed the same meeting topics for weeks: “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, something else, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Jacobs said.
The White House pointed to polling that shows a majority of Republican voters back the Iran war.
“The President has been clear that, while there may be some short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, ultimately oil prices will quickly drop once the operation’s clear objectives have been achieved and America will be back on its solid trajectory of cooling inflation and robust growth thanks to this Administration’s proven economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance,” spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.
In several battleground counties, GOP chairs are holding out hope that the impact will be temporary even as the reality of the war sets in and gas prices creep toward a national average of $4 per gallon.
“Yes, it’s painful now. We all realize that it’s painful, with the gas prices,” said Carson City, Nevada GOP chair Susan Ruch. “I know prices are going to go up — but I do know this is short term compared to World War III.”
That optimism is shared by Decatur County, Georgia, GOP Vice Chair Jesse Williard, who also believes gas prices will plummet quickly after the war ends, setting up Republicans to buck historic midterms trends and post a strong showing in November.
“The economy, I think between now and then, is going to be great,” he said. “If it goes the other direction, it may be horrible, but I anticipate it’s going to be a red wave.”
But other GOP county chairs see early fractures ahead of November’s election, driven by surging costs that are already causing pain for businesses and consumers. In the Phoenix metro area, Berland, the Maricopa County chair, said door-to-door canvassing has become more difficult since the onset of the war.
“We’re even going around canvassing neighborhoods and registered Republicans are yelling out the door, ‘go away, or I’m calling the police,’” Berland said. “I find that very discouraging.”
Voters’ frustrations, he said, stem from “the war or the economy. And the economy is defined largely by energy prices.”
Across Rural America, the pain is even more acute.
Farmers in Pennsylvania, North Dakota and other agriculture-heavy states are feeling the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which sent fertilizer prices skyrocketing just ahead of planting season. Some producers have had to shake up their plans last minute and plant new crops that are less reliant on fertilizer.
The scramble could lead to lower crop yields, which potentially means higher food prices this summer, North Dakota Farmers Union President Matt Perdue said.
Farmers have long been loyal to the GOP and Trump. But the war now poses another massive financial headache on top of the tariffs that have increased their production costs and evaporated markets abroad where they could sell their crops.
“We’ve had just a pile of uncertainty, a pile of volatility in the markets that we buy from and sell to and we’re just creating more volatility, more uncertainty as we move ahead,” Perdue said.
A chorus of farm groups — including the often Trump-aligned American Farm Bureau — petitioned the White House for a bailout last week. And the agriculture lobby is requesting an ad hoc aid package from Congress to cover the mounting fertilizer costs.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania, GOP chair Pete Begley acknowledged that supply chain woes and high prices are pinching some in his community. But he’s willing to offer Trump a long runway before he gets worried.
“If it turns into six months later, we’re still there, and the Ayatollah’s son is still supposedly in charge, that I think will cause concern,” Begley said. “But for now, I think people are standing by the president.”
ICE TO SEE YOU: Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office is advising local governments that zoning and state environmental laws can stymie Immigration and Customs Enforcement from building or expanding detention facilities in their communities.
Those legal barriers — spelled out in a letter sent today by Hochul to local government leaders — represent the latest effort by her administration to halt ICE’s efforts in New York.
“We need localities focused on keeping our communities safe, which depends upon the efforts of local law enforcement, civil servants, and regulators,” Hochul wrote in the letter, which was exclusively obtained by Playbook. “While my administration will continue to demand answers and transparency from federal immigration authorities, should you become aware of these projects, my office is ready to partner with you to determine any appropriate next steps to protect our local communities.”
The missive is a new front in Hochul’s broader push to erect roadblocks against President Donald Trump’s sweeping deportation campaign — which includes a push to build or convert facilities in parts of New York.
New York lawmakers and Hochul agreed in May to a package of sweeping measures meant to limit Trump’s immigration enforcement.
Included in those measures were provisions that required expanded public notice — including holding at least two hearings — for the expansion or construction of an immigration detention facility. The law also prohibits local governments from providing financial benefits meant to offset the cost of a facility.
Hochul’s Republican critics have railed against the measures, which were first proposed during the aggressive deportation crackdown in Minnesota, which left two U.S. citizens dead.
Broome County Sheriff Fred Akshar is set to testify Tuesday to the House Judiciary Committee in Washington on “the continuing tragedy of sanctuary laws.” Akshar’s office did not immediately return a message seeking comment.
Local government officials have already sounded an alarm this year over ICE’s apparent efforts to expand the agency’s detention capacity by leasing or expanding sites in Batavia, Newburgh and Rochester.
Hochul wrote to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin earlier this summer requesting more information on ICE’s New York plans.
Last month her administration got a reply.
An ICE official wrote to the governor that the agency has “not directed the establishment of a detention facility” in Rochester. In Batavia, ICE is “in the early stages” of weighing a bedspace and usage expansion at a site. And in the Hudson Valley, the agency confirmed that “an acquisition [is] underway to identify a new facility to lease through the General Services Administration” that would house its investigations, enforcement and removal operations.
Details were scant in the letter, but the response is the first time the federal government has formally laid out any of its plans for ICE expansion in New York to state officials.
On Monday in New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani and state Attorney General Letitia James offered some of their own push back: two lawsuits seeking to stop the Trump administration from making it harder for immigrants lawfully in the U.S. to change their status.
The suits target a federal rule change set to take effect Friday. The change would give immigration agents more leeway to deny green cards or visas to lawful immigrants on the basis of being a “public charge” — someone who’s using social safety net programs. The rule change would allow agents to factor in the use of Medicaid or food assistance into their decision making.
The Trump administration has said the rule is necessary to ensure the country is not authorizing immigrants who drain public resources.
Mamdani countered that, rather than saving the U.S. money, the change will force immigrants to forgo routine medical care, increasing the likelihood of medical emergencies.
“None of this is abstract,” Mamdani said. “People could die as a result of these changes.”
James said the administration’s rule change is overly broad and flies in the face of more than 100 years of legal precedent.
“This public charge rule goes back to 1822, where Congress basically said that it only applies to individuals who cannot support themselves, not individuals who apply every now and then for public assistance because they fall on hard times,” she said. — Nick Reisman and Joe Anuta
From the Capitol
REGENTS EXAM PHASE-OUT COMING: The high school class of 2027 will be the final one required to pass the state Regents exams to graduate.
The state Board of Regents authorized the Education Department today to move forward with the next phase of the “New York Inspires” program. As part of that program, the board voted last year to adopt a framework that lets students demonstrate proficiency through other measures like projects or coursework. That framework will replace the Regents exam.
While the Regents will remain as an option, it will no longer be a requirement for high school graduation, beginning with students graduating in 2028, education officials said during the board’s monthly meeting today.
“For years, we looked at what elite private schools provide for their students and they do not worry about the Regents exam,” State Education Commissioner Betty Rosa said. “They don’t even worry when you apply to colleges that it’s on their transcript.”
The department said it plans to advance the regulation changes to the board by February 2027 so it can implement the changes in the 2027-28 school year. The board unanimously passed a resolution to that effect today.
Districts will have to develop strategies for assessment that draw on multiple sources of evidence, including classroom performance, student work and state assessments.
Some Regents board members sought more clarity on resources to support families.
“What I did not hear was what resources, what tools do we have for parents and students who are in this purgatory period?” said Regents member Hasoni Pratts, a New York City public school parent.
The news comes as the state grapples with abysmal performance on this year’s reading exams — despite New York spending more per pupil than any other state in the country. Experts and advocates have been questioning what those results say about student learning, and precisely what led to those fluctuations. — Madina Touré
FROM CITY HALL
DEEPFAKE CRACKDOWN: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced today that his office seized control of a dozen domains used to create, disseminate and sell AI deepfake porn.
The sites in question featured AI-generated images and videos of roughly 1,200 individuals — primarily women and celebrities — engaging in sexually explicit activity.
“These horrific violations of privacy follow victims into their careers and personal lives, and take an immense toll on their emotional and mental well-being,” Bragg said. “We were able to seize these domains because a brave survivor stepped forward. And while victims of these sites are largely celebrities, we know that anyone can be a victim of these crimes, particularly in domestic violence cases.”
New York penal law prohibits the dissemination of pornography without a subject’s consent, and violations are punishable by up to a year in prison. That statute was updated in 2023 to explicitly prohibit AI-generated porn.
Bragg’s announcement comes as lawmakers in Albany and Washington grapple with the looming threat of artificial intelligence. But Bragg declined to comment on the potential role of the Manhattan DA’s office in working towards larger scale AI regulation.
“This is a crime in New York State,” he said, referring to the circulation of deepfake pornography. “We don’t have to talk about regulation, legislation. This is a crime now.” —Molly Reinmann
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
2028 VISION: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is leaning into the speculation swirling around her 2028 aspirations.
“In some ways, I understand the interest. But I wanted to write to you today to be direct about what I’m focused on,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote in a fundraising email. “Frankly, I could not care less about titles or positions for myself. That’s not why I got into this work. What matters to me is changing this country so that it finally works for all of us, and that’s why my focus is on the decision working people around the country will make in the next 50 days.”
She added that her political operation is “mobilizing resources, not just to get me re-elected or build for a future campaign, but most importantly to win the midterms and take back the majority.”
Ocasio-Cortez, who’s been active on the trail boosting down-ballot candidates, has kept the door open for either a Senate run or a presidential bid in 2028 — though some progressives are urging her to aim for the White House.
Any clarity on her 2028 decision before this coming Election Day seems unlikely, though — especially given how “concerned” she says she is “by how some in our party are talking” about the midterms.
“There is a narrative taking hold in Washington that the Republicans are already cooked,” her email continued. “That kind of complacency is how we grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. … All of this is why I am not spending this fall thinking about myself. I am spending it working my butt off to deliver a majority in the House and the Senate.” — Madison Fernandez
A DIFFERENT LAUDER GIVES: Estee Lauder Chair William Lauder gave $500,000 to the super PAC backing Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman.
Lauder’s contribution comes after his uncle, prolific GOP donor Ronald Lauder, ceased his political giving this year. Ronald Lauder was the principal backer of a super PAC aiding Republican Lee Zeldin’s 2022 bid against Hochul.
William Lauder wasn’t the only deep-pocketed titan to donate to the Blakeman PAC recently. Home Depot founder Ken Langone, a GOP megadonor who once led Republicans for Cuomo, gave $50,000. — Nick Reisman
IN OTHER NEWS
— STALLED SECURITY: More than eight months into his term, Mamdani is still waiting on federal security clearance. (Gothamist)
— LEGIONELLA LOCATIONS: A Yankee Stadium cooling tower tested positive for the bacteria that can cause Legionnaires’ disease, according to the New York City Health Department. (Daily News)
— SIGN LANGUAGE: A PAC funded by Knicks owner James Dolan launched a $250,000 billboard campaign backing Blakeman and blaming Hochul for an exodus from the state. (NY Post)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
Bo French, the GOP nominee for a spot on the Texas Railroad Commission, doubled down on Monday on a xenophobic post that disparaged Asian American students at the University of Texas after receiving blowback from fellow Republicans over the weekend.
On X, French was quick to turn his viral post, which had received more than 35 million views as of Monday afternoon, into a fundraising pledge, calling the criticism he has received an attack from “the radical left and their allies.”
He also stood by his post in an appearance on the conservative radio broadcast “The Mark Davis Show” on Monday.
“The radical left, you know, they want to make everything about race,” he said on the show. “Of course, there are some people in our party who are uncomfortable talking about those things because it scares them.”
The social media firestorm started after French posted a photo on X on Sunday of UT students celebrating in the crowd and wrote: “I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I didn’t believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.”
The post drew swift rebukes from Democrats and some Texas Republicans, including outgoing Sen. John Cornyn — who called on other Republican officials to “condemn the intolerance and racism” — as well as several state lawmakers.
During his radio appearance, French said his social media post is a criticism of admissions and hiring policies at UT, the state’s public flagship, that he said discriminated against Texas residents.
“It’s not racist to point out that we should be favoring Texans over foreigners,” French said.
There’s no indication that the students French targeted are foreigners. Most of UT’s student body is made up of Texans.
According to state law, Texas high school students in the top 5% of their class are automatically admitted to UT, and around 80% of the student body is from the state.
He also took a shot at Cornyn and other Republicans who condemned him, saying many were from the establishment wing of the party that opposed him in the GOP primary.
“What is he doing to help elect [Ken] Paxton? So we have to ask those questions,” he said. “I just think we should be prioritizing our Republican platform, which, by the way, is an America First platform, which prioritizes Americans.”
French, who is running for a seat on the influential statewide body that regulates its oil and gas industry, has a history of making controversial statements.
Earlier this year, he suggested Republicans should fear Islam and advocated for deporting 100 million people.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has a simmering Latino revolt on his hands. Quelling it could come down to Texas.
A group of Latino Democratic officials — including operatives and local and congressional leaders — are pushing Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, to pounce on late-breaking momentum in the Texas gubernatorial race, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa is vying to unseat incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott.
The effort to get Beshear to expand the map comes as the DGA eyes several swing states — like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia or Nevada — where the party is focused on keeping or flipping governors’ mansions. But underlying it all is the Democratic Party’s fight to staunch the hemorrhaging of Latino voters from their ranks, and Texas sits at the center of their losses.
“One takeaway from 2024 is that Democrats writ large need to be a whole lot more bold when it comes to their approach, their strategy, their thinking,” said Sergio Gonzalez, one of the operatives involved in the effort to recruit DGA’s support who’s working with Latino candidates across the country. “How do [Democrats] build the coalition that it’s going to take for them to ultimately be successful? Gina is very much a part of that task.”
The Latino operatives and lawmakers made their case in a letter earlier this month asking the DGA to drop $10 million on Hinojosa’s race, pointing tomultiple polls that put the state representative within striking distance of Abbott. An investment from the DGA, they argued, could help make inroads with Latino voters and give Democrats what’s proved to be an elusive statewide victory in deep-red Texas.
Instead, the Latino coalition behind the letter said they got snubbed.
The DGA’s response to the letter, shared with the Latino organizers last Sunday and viewed by Blue Light News, called Hinojosa an “outstanding candidate running a strong campaign,” and touted the work it’s already done investing in campaign staff and research in coordination with the campaign.
But the Latino leaders were ultimately disappointed by a lack of commitment from the DGA to financially boost Hinojosa. “We would be grateful for your help in raising the resources necessary to expand the map and go big in Texas,” the DGA wrote in its response. “We welcome your fundraising collaboration to support Gina’s campaign.”
The group said that after receiving the DGA’s response, they reached out to the organization and requested a meeting with Beshear, but they have not heard back.
The DGA, however, says it’s not taking anything off the table.
“The DGA is excited to be supporting Gina Hinojosa’s campaign for governor of Texas and has been working directly with her team since she’s launched,” DGA communications director Sam Newton said in a statement to Blue Light News. “We’ve been in touch and have made clear we look forward to setting up a meeting to find a productive path forward.”
The DGA also has not ruled out investing in Hinojosa’s race, the organization told Blue Light News.
“Gina Hinojosa is a great candidate and running a great campaign,” Beshear told Blue Light News in a statement. “We are currently investing by paying expenses and recently providing staff. My goal as chair of the DGA this year is to win as many races as we can and that’s exactly what we’re doing by going on offense and expanding the map.”
Hinojosa said the DGA has been “a great partner since the beginning,” and that her campaign has a “good working relationship” with them. Asked if she believes they’ll spend for her in the final stretch, she said, “I sure hope they do.”
While Texas is a central focus of the fight Democrats and Republicans are waging to win the Latino vote, it’s states like Arizona and Nevada that have more competitive governor’s races — and are likely to showcase the influence of Latino voters in 2028. The DGA has made seven-figure investments in those states, running Spanish-language ads since May in Arizona. In their conference last week, Beshear announced a new “expand the map” fund to collect more resources to flip more seats, which could help races like Texas.
But the lack of assurances on whether the DGA will step in with a financial salve for Hinojosa has been cold comfort for the Latinos backing her. The result is what operatives called a “sweeping frustration” among their ranks at what they view as “dismissiveness” from the DGA.
“In just over a month, people will cast their first ballots in Texas. It’s not like we have tons of time to iron this out,” said Gonzalez, who helped organize the letter to the DGA.
Hinojosa’s race is rated likely Republican, and she is facing a significant fundraising disadvantage to Abbott. Texas is flooded with media markets among the most expensive in the country.
Yet the operatives argue Hinojosa presents one of the best Democratic opportunities in the state in years. And they believe her campaign could get a boost from voters turning out for Democrat James Talarico in the Senate race, as well as down-ballot candidates with high name identification like Bobby Pulido.
“What is especially egregious in this particular situation is that she was coming from behind,” Jess Rocketto, another Latino operative working closely with Latino candidates who helped coordinate the letter, told Blue Light News. “Now that she has come up from behind, they still don’t want to invest. What is the DGA for in that case?”
And the operatives say the frustrations in Texas could ultimately land hardest on Beshear, who’s built a national profile as a Democrat able to flip a red-state governor’s seat held by an incumbent. He’s also been actively courting the Latino vote, collaborating frequently with top Latino creators like Carlos Eduardo Espina.
“We would really think, just to be honest with you, that Governor Beshear would understand this, especially given that he has presidential aspirations,” Gonzalez said. “It’s very important that he understand this.”
Another Latino operative who signed the letter, granted anonymity to speak candidly, argued Beshear will need these same Latinos if he moves to build a coalition for 2028. “He’s not being smart about his politics,” they said.
And in Texas, the operative warned that a failure to invest in Hinojosa now could not only make her uphill battle even harder, but it could also make it “next to impossible” to recruit a strong Latino candidate in the future.
“If they can’t show that they’re showing up for their people, Texas is written off for Democrats for a generation,” they said.
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