The Dictatorship
What the government shutdown means for workers and the economy
WASHINGTON (AP) — The federal government shutdown is quickly approaching the second longest on record with no end in sight. Some lawmakers are predicting it could become the longest, surpassing the 35 days from President Donald Trump’s first term.
The Trump administration is using the current shutdown to buttress priorities it favors while seeking to dismantle those it doesn’t. Nevertheless, Democrats are insisting that any funding bill include help for millions of Americans who will lose health insurance coverage or face dramatically higher monthly premiums if Congress does nothing.
The shutdown began Oct. 1. Here’s a look at its impact so far on workers, the economy and the services the government provides.
Furloughs and firings
The federal government employed nearly 2.3 million civilian employees as of March 31. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 750,000 of those employees would be furloughed each day during a shutdown. That means they don’t report to work until the shutdown ends. Others are considered “excepted” and do go to work, helping to protect life and property and perform other essential services.
Both groups of workers will get paid, but on a retroactive basis. That means they are facing the prospect of missing a full paycheck later this month after receiving a partial one earlier for work performed in late September.
The nation’s 1.3 million active-duty service members got a temporary reprieve. They were looking at missing a paycheck on Wednesday. But Trump directed the Pentagon to redirect money. A second reprieve looks unlikely.
Of note for taxpayers, the government tab for paying furloughed workers while they are at home comes to roughly $400 million a day, according to a CBO estimate provided at the request of Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.
AP AUDIO: Shutdown impact: What it means for workers, federal programs and the economy
AP correspondent Julie Walker reports on the government shutdown, what it means for workers, federal programs and the economy.
The administration is also trying to fire thousands of federal workers in agencies that don’t align with its priorities. Republican leaders in Congress have said that’s part of the fallout from a shutdown. Past presidents, however, did not use shutdowns to engage in mass firings.
The Republican administration has announced one reduction in force affecting 4,100 workers, with the biggest cuts happening at the departments of Treasury, Health and Human Services, Education and Housing and Urban Development.
White House budget chief Russ Vought said in an interview on “The Charlie Kirk Show” that many more are planned.
“I think we’ll probably end up being north of 10,000,” Vought said.
“We want to be very aggressive where we can be in shuttering the bureaucracy,” Vought said. “Not just the funding, but the bureaucracy, that we now have an opportunity to do that.”
A federal judge has temporarily blocked the firings, saying the cuts appeared to be politically motivated and were being carried out without much thought. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that the administration was “100%” confident that it will prevail on the merits in subsequent legal action.
Lawmakers acknowledge that many federal workers live paycheck to paycheck and will face some financial stress during the shutdown. Food banks in some communities have boosted efforts to help them. The Capital Area Food Bank, for example, said it would hold additional food distributions in the Washington region beginning Monday to support federal workers and contractors.
Economic Impact
Past shutdowns have had slight impacts on the economy, reducing growth in the quarter during which the shutdown occurs, but growth increases slightly in the following three months to help make up for it.
One estimate from Oxford Economics said a shutdown reduces economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week. A shutdown that lasts the entire quarter, which has never occurred, would reduce growth for those three months by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points.
Some industries are hurt worse than others.
The U.S. Travel Association said the travel economy is expected to lose $1 billion a week as travelers change plans to visit national parks, historic sites and the nation’s capital, where many facilities such as Smithsonian Institution museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce noted that the Small Business Administration supports loans totaling about $860 million a week for 1,600 small businesses. Those programs close to new loans during the shutdown. The shutdown also has halted the issuance and renewal of flood insurance policies, delaying mortgage closings and real estate transactions.
The Federal Aviation Administration has reported air controller shortages in cities across the United States, from airports in Boston and Philadelphia, to control centers in Atlanta and Houston. Flight delays have spread to airports in Nashville, Tennessee, Dallas, Newark, New Jersey and more.
Political fallout
The party that insists on conditions as part of a government funding bill generally doesn’t get its way. That was the case in 2013 and 2018 for Republicans. It remains to be seen how things will shake out this time, but neither side appears to be budging.
So far, the public is rather split on who is to blame for the impasse. Roughly 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Trump and Republicans in Congress have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility for the shutdown, while 54% say the same about Democrats in Congress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Perceptions could change depending upon how much the White House uses the shutdown to eliminate Democratic priorities and Democratic-leaning states and cities.
The administration has put on hold roughly $18 billion to fund a new rail tunnel beneath the Hudson River between New York City and New Jersey and an extension of the city’s Second Avenue subway. It canceled $7.6 billion in grants that supported hundreds of clean energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. The administration cited reasons apart from the shutdown for the funding changes.
In the end, there does not appear to be an easy way out of the shutdown. Republicans insists any negotiations on health care occur after the government is fully open for business. “We’re not conducting negotiations in a hostage situation,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.
Across the Capitol, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Democrats “are not going to bend and we’re not going to break because we are standing up for the American people.”
The Dictatorship
Justice Jackson keeps calling out what she sees as needless Supreme Court interventions
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson continues to speak out when she believes her colleagues are misusing their power. The latest example came Monday, when the Biden appointee dissented from a Supreme Court ruling in favor of law enforcement in a Fourth Amendment case.
In District of Columbia v. R.W.the high court majority disagreed with a ruling from D.C.’s appeals court that said a police officer violated the amendment by stopping a person without reasonable suspicion. In an unsigned through the court opinion, the justices said the D.C. court failed to properly consider the “totality of the circumstances.” The justices summarily reversed the lower court.
Jackson, however, saw the maneuver by her colleagues as heavy-handed.
In her dissent, she wrote that if the court’s intervention “reflects disapproval” of the D.C. court’s “assessment of which particular facts to weigh and to what extent, I cannot fathom why that kind of factbound determination warranted correction by this Court.” She deemed the move “not a worthy accomplishment for the unusual step of summary reversal.”
A notation at the end of the majority’s opinion said that Justice Sonia Sotomayor would have denied D.C.’s petition for high court review, but she didn’t join Jackson’s dissent or write her own to elaborate.
Jackson’s dissent follows a lecture she gave last week at Yale Law School in which she criticized what she saw as her colleagues’ disrespect of lower courts’ work.
Monday’s ruling appeared among several high court actions on a 25-page order lista routine document containing the latest action on pending appeals. The list is mostly unexplained denials of petitions for review, but sometimes it contains opinions and justices writing separately to explain themselves.
In another case on the list, Sotomayor, Jackson and the court’s third Democratic-appointed justice, Elena Kagan, all noted their dissent from the majority’s unexplained summary reversal in favor of law enforcement in a qualified immunity case.
It takes four justices to grant review of a petition. That simple math underscores the lack of power wielded by the three Democratic appointees, especially on the most contentious issues.
On that note, one of the new cases the court took up on Monday involves its latest foray into religion in public life, which the religious side has been winning at the court. The new case is an appeal from Catholic preschools in Colorado that want public funding while still admitting, as they wrote in their petition“only families who support Catholic beliefs, including on sex and gender.” The case will be heard in the next court term that starts in October.
Jordan Rubin is the Deadline: Legal Blog writer. He was a prosecutor for the New York County District Attorney’s Office in Manhattan and is the author of “Bizarro,” a book about the secret war on synthetic drugs. Before he joined MS NOW, he was a legal reporter for Bloomberg Law.
The Dictatorship
The White House’s personal, financial and diplomatic lines keep blurring
About a month ago, when Donald Trump spoke at a conference for Saudi Arabia’s sovereign investment fund, it was hard not to notice the complexities of the circumstances. On the one hand, Riyadh has helped steer the White House’s policy in Iran. On the other hand, the president’s son-in-law, having already received billions of dollars from Saudi Arabia, recently turned to the Middle Eastern country for more money for his private investment firm.
All the while, Saudi officials remain focused on private dealings with Trump’s family business, as the Republican extended his public support to the sovereign investment fund, ignored Pentagon concerns about selling F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and designated Saudi Arabia a “major non-NATO ally” as part of a new security agreement.
The trouble is, it’s not just the Saudis.
The New York Times reported on wealthy interests in Syria with ambitions plans for the nation’s future who needed the U.S. to drop the economic sanctions that crippled the country during Bashar al-Assad’s reign. One Syrian-born businessman, Mohamad Al-Khayyat, secured a meeting with Republican Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina, who recommended that plans for a luxury golf course carry the Trump Organization brand as a way of getting the American president’s attention.
The Times’ report, which has not been independently verified by MS NOW, added that the businessman was way ahead of the congressman. He’d already planned to propose a Trump-branded resort. The same businessman’s brothers, who enjoy the backing of Thomas Barrack, the American president’s special envoy to Syria, were also negotiating a real estate partnership with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.
The Times summarized the broader context nicely:
Such a mixing of personal and diplomatic affairs has long been the norm in Middle Eastern nations, where a small set of players have historically run, and profited from, their dominant role in society. But it has become the way Washington operates in Mr. Trump’s second term, too.
Business discussions involving the president’s family … are consistently blurred with important policy decisions or consequential nation-to-nation negotiations.
Not to put too fine a point on this, but developments like these aren’t supposed to happen in the U.S. If a foreign country wants a change in federal economic sanctions, it’s supposed to go through proper diplomatic and economic channels as part of a formal process to prevent corruption and potential conflicts of interests.
In 2026, that model has been torn down — and replaced with what the Times described as “a warped system of executive patronage,” which is awfully tough to defend.
The article added:
Mohamad Al-Khayyat returned to Washington late last year toting a special stone celebrating the proposed golf course, carved with the Trump family emblem. He presented it to Mr. Wilson in his Capitol Hill office to deliver to the White House. Mr. Al-Khayyat then joined meetings with other lawmakers to push the sanctions repeal.
Weeks later, legislation for a permanent repeal won approval in Congress and was signed into law by Mr. Trump in late December.
This was no doubt noticed by officials and monied interests elsewhere, sending a clear signal about how to interact with the U.S. government (at least until January 2029).
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
The Dictatorship
Monday’s Campaign Round-Up, 4.20.26: Obama makes one last pitch ahead of Virginia race
Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.
* This week’s biggest election is in Virginia, where voters will decide whether to advance a Democratic redistricting effort. Ahead of Tuesday’s balloting, Barack Obama filmed one last pitch to the electorate in the commonwealth.
* With former Rep. Eric Swalwell out of California’s gubernatorial race, billionaire Tom Steyer is spending heavily to claim the front-runner slot. The Associated Press reported“Data compiled by advertising tracker AdImpact show Steyer has spent or booked over $115 million in ads for broadcast TV, cable and radio — nearly 30 times the amount of his nearest Democratic rival.”
* On a related note, the California Teachers Association, which had backed Swalwell, threw its support behind Steyer’s bid last week.
* When Donald Trump held an event in Nevada last week, many watched to see whether Joe Lombardo, the state’s Republican governor who is facing a tough re-election fight in the fall, appeared at the gathering. He did notthough Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony spoke at the event.
* In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. John Fetterman isn’t up for re-election until 2028, but Punchbowl News asked every other Democratic member of the state’s congressional delegation whether the incumbent senator should run for a second term as a Democrat. Not one said he should.
* Jack Daly, a political operative who pleaded guilty in 2023 to defrauding thousands of conservative political donors, has lost some Republican clients of late, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee has continued to use the services of Daly’s firm.
* And in Tennessee, Republican Rep. Andy Ogles appears to be running for re-election, though his fundraising is badly lacking: As of the end of March, the far-right incumbent only had around $85,000 cash on handwhich lags his GOP primary opponent, former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, who has around $150,000 in his campaign account.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
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