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The Dictatorship

What the government shutdown means for workers and the economy

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What the government shutdown means for workers and the economy

WASHINGTON (AP) — The federal government shutdown is quickly approaching the second longest on record with no end in sight. Some lawmakers are predicting it could become the longest, surpassing the 35 days from President Donald Trump’s first term.

The Trump administration is using the current shutdown to buttress priorities it favors while seeking to dismantle those it doesn’t. Nevertheless, Democrats are insisting that any funding bill include help for millions of Americans who will lose health insurance coverage or face dramatically higher monthly premiums if Congress does nothing.

The shutdown began Oct. 1. Here’s a look at its impact so far on workers, the economy and the services the government provides.

Furloughs and firings

The federal government employed nearly 2.3 million civilian employees as of March 31. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 750,000 of those employees would be furloughed each day during a shutdown. That means they don’t report to work until the shutdown ends. Others are considered “excepted” and do go to work, helping to protect life and property and perform other essential services.

Both groups of workers will get paid, but on a retroactive basis. That means they are facing the prospect of missing a full paycheck later this month after receiving a partial one earlier for work performed in late September.

The nation’s 1.3 million active-duty service members got a temporary reprieve. They were looking at missing a paycheck on Wednesday. But Trump directed the Pentagon to redirect money. A second reprieve looks unlikely.

Of note for taxpayers, the government tab for paying furloughed workers while they are at home comes to roughly $400 million a day, according to a CBO estimate provided at the request of Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.

AP AUDIO: Shutdown impact: What it means for workers, federal programs and the economy

AP correspondent Julie Walker reports on the government shutdown, what it means for workers, federal programs and the economy.

The administration is also trying to fire thousands of federal workers in agencies that don’t align with its priorities. Republican leaders in Congress have said that’s part of the fallout from a shutdown. Past presidents, however, did not use shutdowns to engage in mass firings.

The Republican administration has announced one reduction in force affecting 4,100 workers, with the biggest cuts happening at the departments of Treasury, Health and Human Services, Education and Housing and Urban Development.

White House budget chief Russ Vought said in an interview on “The Charlie Kirk Show” that many more are planned.

“I think we’ll probably end up being north of 10,000,” Vought said.

“We want to be very aggressive where we can be in shuttering the bureaucracy,” Vought said. “Not just the funding, but the bureaucracy, that we now have an opportunity to do that.”

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the firings, saying the cuts appeared to be politically motivated and were being carried out without much thought. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that the administration was “100%” confident that it will prevail on the merits in subsequent legal action.

Lawmakers acknowledge that many federal workers live paycheck to paycheck and will face some financial stress during the shutdown. Food banks in some communities have boosted efforts to help them. The Capital Area Food Bank, for example, said it would hold additional food distributions in the Washington region beginning Monday to support federal workers and contractors.

Economic Impact

Past shutdowns have had slight impacts on the economy, reducing growth in the quarter during which the shutdown occurs, but growth increases slightly in the following three months to help make up for it.

One estimate from Oxford Economics said a shutdown reduces economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week. A shutdown that lasts the entire quarter, which has never occurred, would reduce growth for those three months by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points.

Some industries are hurt worse than others.

The U.S. Travel Association said the travel economy is expected to lose $1 billion a week as travelers change plans to visit national parks, historic sites and the nation’s capital, where many facilities such as Smithsonian Institution museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce noted that the Small Business Administration supports loans totaling about $860 million a week for 1,600 small businesses. Those programs close to new loans during the shutdown. The shutdown also has halted the issuance and renewal of flood insurance policies, delaying mortgage closings and real estate transactions.

The Federal Aviation Administration has reported air controller shortages in cities across the United States, from airports in Boston and Philadelphia, to control centers in Atlanta and Houston. Flight delays have spread to airports in Nashville, Tennessee, Dallas, Newark, New Jersey and more.

Political fallout

The party that insists on conditions as part of a government funding bill generally doesn’t get its way. That was the case in 2013 and 2018 for Republicans. It remains to be seen how things will shake out this time, but neither side appears to be budging.

So far, the public is rather split on who is to blame for the impasse. Roughly 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Trump and Republicans in Congress have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility for the shutdown, while 54% say the same about Democrats in Congress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Perceptions could change depending upon how much the White House uses the shutdown to eliminate Democratic priorities and Democratic-leaning states and cities.

The administration has put on hold roughly $18 billion to fund a new rail tunnel beneath the Hudson River between New York City and New Jersey and an extension of the city’s Second Avenue subway. It canceled $7.6 billion in grants that supported hundreds of clean energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. The administration cited reasons apart from the shutdown for the funding changes.

In the end, there does not appear to be an easy way out of the shutdown. Republicans insists any negotiations on health care occur after the government is fully open for business. “We’re not conducting negotiations in a hostage situation,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.

Across the Capitol, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Democrats “are not going to bend and we’re not going to break because we are standing up for the American people.”

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The Dictatorship

With Trump in a holding pattern on Iran war, allies and critics worry he risks getting boxed in

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With Trump in a holding pattern on Iran war, allies and critics worry he risks getting boxed in

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is facing warnings from foes and allies alike that he’s getting boxed in on the Iran wara conflict he sold as a brief military incursion but that has since settled into a holding pattern.

It’s been a week since U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire in the conflict by 60 days and start a new round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program that required Trump’s signoff.

But Trump has called for unspecified changes to the agreement and Iranian officials — perhaps calculating that the Republican president is reluctant to restart the bombardment after burning through key weapons systems — are showing no signs they’ll give in to new demands.

A series of strikes by the U.S. and Iran this week has raised fresh concerns that the ceasefire could collapse. But Trump on Thursday reiterated that he’s certain his administration is on track to successfully wrap up the conflict.

“We’re going to win one way or another,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

The shaky moment follows repeated claims by Trump since a 14-day ceasefire was agreed to on April 7 — following 38 days of U.S. and Israel bombing of Iran — that a deal is just days away and the Iranian side is begging to come to a settlement.

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, June 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, June 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Without an interim settlement in place to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices remain elevated and are adding to anxieties around the world about the impact of rising costs spurred by the 3-month-old conflict on the cost of food, fuel and other goods.

After a string of reports this week that Iran was shutting down talksTrump told CNBC he “couldn’t care less” if the negotiations had bogged down and even mused they had become “boring.”

There’s anxiety Trump is getting boxed in

There’s growing concern inside the administration and among key advisers and allies that Trump now finds himself in a bind, according to a U.S. official and another person familiar with the administration’s internal deliberations, both of whom spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

He’s buffeted by Democrats seizing on oil prices and warnings from hawkish members of his base that an early exit from the conflict would amount to capitulation.

Trump is privately hearing from other Republican lawmakers as well as Pentagon officials and Gulf allies that a return to the bombing campaign is a bad idea.

Those advising against returning to military action note that the U.S. has burned through munitions at too fast a rate. It could take three years to replenish some key weapons systems.

Meanwhile, Gulf allies are worried Iran will retaliate against them and their critical infrastructure and energy interests and further set back their economies.

Plumes of smoke and fire rise after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility, according to authorities, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri, File)

Plumes of smoke and fire rise after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility, according to authorities, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri, File)

At the same time, Trump has bristled at the idea of accepting a deal that resembles the 2015 nuclear agreement brokered by Democrat Barack Obama’s administration, which restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting international economic sanctions.

Trump, during his first term, abandoned the pactwhich he said had failed to permanently stop Iran’s nuclear program, ignored Iran’s ballistic-missile development and did not penalize Iran for supporting militant proxy groups across the Middle East.

Now, Trump, according to those familiar with internal deliberations, has made clear he feels strongly he can’t make “a bad deal” and is acutely aware he’s at risk of tarnishing his legacy if he missteps.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed the notion that Trump has been boxed in, or that there’s any concern within the administration about the pace of talks.

Trump resisted Israel’s push for Lebanon bombings

Israeli and hawkish allies in Washington have made the case to Trump that a deal at this point would amount to unconditional surrender, urging him to ratchet up economic pressure on Iran and back Israel’s assault on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

But Trump, earlier this week, in a heated call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, demanded Israel stand down. And on Wednesday, Israel and Lebanon said they agreed to renew a ceasefire. Hezbollah was not part of the Israel-Lebanon talks, which have been held at the ambassadorial level in Washington since the beginning of last month, and the militant group has denounced the agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a Memorial Day opening ceremony at the Yad LaBanim House in Jerusalem, Monday, April 20, 2026. (Marc Israel Sellem/Pool Photo via AP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a Memorial Day opening ceremony at the Yad LaBanim House in Jerusalem, Monday, April 20, 2026. (Marc Israel Sellem/Pool Photo via AP)

Remaining in the current status quo with Tehran — neither a full resumption of hostilities nor sealing an interim agreement to restart nuclear talks — is a situation Iran appears better poised to exploit, argued Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the hawkish Washington think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Despite being the weaker party, Iran appears to be calculating that the longer the holding pattern lasts, the better the chances are that it can “box in” Trump, he added.

“Either way, Tehran appears more resolute than ever to not provide Trump with a victory image, hence why it isn’t budging on the battlefield or negotiating table,” Taleblu said.

Holding pattern isn’t helpful for Republicans on the ballot

At the same time, Democrats are trying to capitalize on Trump’s handling of the unpopular war ahead of November’s midterm elections. The House of Representatives on Wednesday for the first time passed a symbolic resolution calling for a halt in military action against Iran, with four Republican lawmakers joining Democrats in the rebuke of Trump’s war.

The president has dismissed the House vote as “meaningless.”

“The Democrats are fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome,” Trump fumed in a social media post. “The four Republicans, that’s a whole other story – They’re GRANDSTANDERS! They should be ashamed of themselves.”

During hours of hearings on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Democrats laced into Trump for discounting the economic impact of the conflict on Americans and for failing to anticipate Iran would shutter the Strait.

In one tense exchange, New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker pointed to the unsteady ceasefire as a sign Iran has the upper hand.

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., questions Attorney General nominee William Barr as he testifies before a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2019. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., questions Attorney General nominee William Barr as he testifies before a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2019. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

“We are the strongest nation on the planet Earth, and we’re in a stalemate with Iran,” Booker said. “And now we’re begging to get back into a deal that you all trashed in the first place.”

Rubio dismissed the criticism, underscoring that Iran has been placed on its heels with the strikes, which have taken out multiple layers of senior leadership and left Iran’s economy in shambles.

“There’s no one begging,” Rubio responded. “I don’t know where you’re getting this perception that Iran is stronger.”

Another Democrat, Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, homed in on Trump’s comments last month that voter anxiety about the cost of living was “not even a little bit” of a motivating factor for him to reach a deal to end the war.

The president continues to downplay the rising costs for Americans at the pump and predicts that gas prices would fall sharply after the conflict ends.

Christopher Borick, the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, said that Democrats running in swing districts around the country are already zeroing in on Trump’s rhetoric on the war’s impact on Americans’ pocketbooks.

“There’s significant risk in having this thing drag on for Republicans,” Borick said. “But for Republicans in some of these tough swing districts, there’s a case to be made to rip the bandage off now, get some easing in the oil markets and hope there’s enough time for voters to turn the page.”

___

Associated Press writers Farnoush Amiri in New York and Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.

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The Dictatorship

What the ‘anti-weaponization’ fund fight reveals about the GOP

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Republicans forced the Trump administration to at least temporarily drop its agenda to create an astonishingly corrupt $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund this week. The showdown served as a reminder of how the GOP has the ability to foil President Donald Trump’s plans when it wants to, but rarely chooses to exercise that power. And that’s why our current political crisis can’t solely be laid at the feet of Trump. The feckless party he leads rarely exerts its own agency, and that’s a choice.

Republican senators recently showed Trump that there are limits to their patience with his pet projects. A plan to pass a $72 billion immigration enforcement funding bill right before Memorial Day weekend was derailed after, as MS NOW reported“several Senate Republicans spoke out” against the anti-weaponization fund and “appeared ready to support Democratic-led amendments to block the proposal.”

Things got heated. Reuters reported that “nearly half” of the GOP Senate majority “balked at the issue during a heated two-hour meeting with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, afterward described it on his podcast as “one of the roughest meetings I’ve seen in my entire time in the Senate.”

Why doesn’t the GOP act like this more often?

These objections forced Senate Republican leaders to pull the vote and send lawmakers home early for a recess. The message was clear: Rank-and-file senate Republicans can reject Trump’s demands by refusing to pass the legislation he wants to pass. And the Trump administration appeared to receive that message. On Tuesday, Blanche said“We’re not moving forward with the fund. Period.” That came a day after the Justice Department announced it would comply with a court ruling temporarily blocking the fund.

It’s not hard to see why lawmakers from a party would push back against a fund whose sole discernible function would be to reward the president’s friends and political allies — potentially including those who tried to violently overthrow the government. Which raises the question, why doesn’t the GOP act like this more often?

Trump is wildly unpopularhostile to addressing the country’s affordability crisis, mired in a war that he began on a whim, and fixated on turning Washington into an autocrats’ paradise. Even if I were a sincere MAGA ideologue, I would be angry that my egoistic party leader was clearly making policy decisions that hurt voters and the party’s chances in the coming midterm elections.

Sure, Trump’s track record of successfully backing primary challengers against the handful of lawmakers who dare to criticize him is a real source of intimidation. And he is unrivaled by any other figure in the party in terms of his grip on the base. But ultimately, his domination of the party can be resolved by collective action: If enough of the party rallies together and credibly threatens to freeze his agenda, as they just did, they can force him to retreat; Trump can’t launch a primary against his entire party. Refusing to fund Trump’s policy agenda would be a way for the GOP to push back against his authoritarian power grabs, dismantling of federal agencies, tariff extremism and casual “excursions” into other countries.

Yet on Thursday, Senate Republicans showed they’re still capable of failing a test they previously proved they can pass, rejecting multiple efforts to formally kill Trump’s weaponization fund effort. (Trump hasn’t ruled out the possibility of reviving it, but Republicans balked at the chance to ensure he cannot.)

Republican lawmakers aren’t held hostage by Trump’s power. They choose to enable it by refusing to take a stand collectively. Whether they’ve come to this position through approval of his behavior or acclimating to it, their choice shows they are full participants in American decline.

Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He primarily writes about politics and foreign policy.

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The Dictatorship

Trump says Bill Pulte’s nomination is ‘temporary.’ That’s cold comfort.

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“Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good,” goes the old saying. In the case of the Trump administration, the standard is not so much “good” as “barely competent.”

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump appointed Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence. Two days later he told reporters that Pulte’s appointment is “not going to be permanent” and he will “just take it over a little while.” That is cold comfort, given the position’s responsibilities.

The provision creating “a Director of National Intelligence” included the legal requirement that he or she “have extensive national security expertise.”

Pulte was – and remains – the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, hardly the background one would expect for the leader of America’s 18 intelligence agencies. That’s particularly true during a time when America is at war with Iran, a hostile foreign adversary whom the US government considers a state sponsor of terrorism.

I was serving as a federal national security prosecutor when Congress created the position of director of national intelligence following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The goal was to help members of the intelligence community “connect the dots.” Congress passed theIntelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act in 2004 to break down intelligence community silos and more effectively facilitate information sharing. The provision creating “a Director of National Intelligence” included the legal requirement that he or she “have extensive national security expertise.”

Pulte replaces Tulsi Gabbardwho resigned from the post last month amid disagreements over the threat posed by Iran. Gabbard’s resume was thin, but at least she had experience in the military and in Congress. Pulte appears to lack any national security expertise at all. In fact, his only apparent qualification is unflinching loyalty to the president and an eagerness to weaponize the government against Trump’s perceived foes. After all, it was Pulte who has made accusations of mortgage fraud against some of Trump’s perceived enemies, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook and Senator Adam Schiff. Pulte also called for the removal of Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, supporting Trump’s efforts to pressure Powell to lower interest rates.

There’s a reason Congress required the DNI to have national security experience. The director of national intelligence oversees the nation’s collection, analysis, and dissemination of information relating to terrorist plots, cyber attacks, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and malign foreign influence, an incredibly sensitive portfolio. The job’s responsibilities including conducting the president’s daily brief, the meeting at which a president is advised each morning of overnight developments and the most urgent threats to American interests.

Why would a president want to fill such a sensitive and important position with someone who lacks any bona fide credentials? Perhaps the appointment reflects what historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat calls “engineered incompetence.” When a leader appoints an individual to an office that is above their station, the official becomes beholden to the leader, who, in turn, gains absolute control. Knowing they are in over their head, the official is less likely to assert independent judgment or to object when the leader acts in his self-interest instead of the public good.

Effective leaders value candid advice, even when it means hearing things that conflict with their policy preferences.

Engineered incompetence explains how a Fox News host gets appointed Secretary of Defense and promptly shares sensitive attack plans over a Signal chat. When subservience is favored over expertise, the leader gains power, but institutions become less effective, to the detriment of the people. Russian President Vladimir Putin is believed to have miscalculated a quick victory in his war with Ukraine because of the overly optimistic assessments of his advisers, who tell Putin only what he wants to hear. Four years later, the war rages on.  After the way Gabbard was isolated, don’t expect Pulte to disagree with Trump over the threat posed by Iran, no matter the stakes.

Under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, Pulte can serve in an acting capacity for up to 210 days without Senate confirmation. Democrats in Congress warn they will block the extension of the government’s warrantless surveillance authority under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act unless Pulte’s appointment is reversed. Even some Republicans have denounced the appointment. “We don’t need a weaponized DNI.,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune.  “We need professionals there.”

Effective leaders value candid advice, even when it means hearing things that conflict with their policy preferences. A leader who ignores unpleasant news is one who is unprepared to make clear-eyed choices on behalf of the people he was elected to serve. With a loyalist like Pulte leading the president’s daily intelligence brief, the engineered incompetence itself poses a grave risk to our national security.

Barbara McQuade is a former Michigan U.S. attorney and legal analyst.

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