Congress
Senate Republicans move toward vote on California emissions waiver
Senate Republicans could vote as soon as next week on a controversial proposal to nix federal waivers allowing California to set its own emissions standards — potentially bringing a simmering debate over the chamber’s rules to a head.
“We’re going to pass it next week,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told reporters after a closed-door conference lunch where they discussed the proposal at length.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune hasn’t yet committed to bringing the measure to the floor next week, and a key sponsor, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, cautioned that the schedule isn’t “100 percent decided” yet. The Senate has until the first week of June to act under the Congressional Review Act.
But Republicans are feeling increasingly confident that they will have the votes to undo California’s longstanding waivers after leaving a House-passed disapproval resolution in a weeks-long limbo. Republicans can lose three of their own and still let Vice President JD Vance break a tie.
“We’re going to do it,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said after Tuesday’s lunch, adding that he was confident because “I can tell the way people feel.” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a leadership adviser, also said that he was “very confident” that Republicans will have the votes to nix the California waiver.
The controversy is less about the policy merits and more about a Government Accountability Office ruling that said the waiver isn’t actually subject to CRA review. Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough backed up that finding, and the prospect of overruling her has spooked a handful of GOP senators wary of weakening Senate rules in a way that would come back to bite them when Democrats are back in control of Congress.
Republicans are hopeful they’ll have support from at least one member Democrats have targeted — former GOP Leader Mitch McConnell — but they haven’t locked in the votes yet and are actively working to sway the undecideds.
One of them, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, said she continued to have “some procedural issues” and would meet Tuesday with Capito to work through them. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said in a brief interview she is discussing the issue with colleagues and not yet ready to make a decision.
“There is obviously apprehension if we go sideways on our own rules and so I’m having a lot of good conversations,” Murkowski said.
Democrats have sounded the alarm over a possible vote, warning GOP leaders in a letter earlier this month that it would be akin to deploying the “nuclear option” against the Senate’s rules. But Republicans are trying to minimize any blowback by focusing on the GAO ruling, not the parliamentarian.
“It’s about whether GAO is able to … veto a process that has never been questioned before,” Capito said. “I see it as us asserting our prerogative.”
President Donald Trump said voters may seek to punish Republicans — but not him — in the November midterm elections, as GOP lawmakers sweat that affordability concerns and the war in Iran could mean Democrats flip the House and perhaps even the Senate.
“They’re angry at Republicans,” Trump said in an interview with Punchbowl News that aired Friday. “But they’re not angry at me. They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.”
The GOP faces the prospect of heavy losses this November, as gas and grocery prices remain stubbornly high due in part to the White House’s five-month-long war in Iran. The administration’s guidance on campaign trail messaging has been “tone deaf,” House Republicans fear.
Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has tumbled since he returned to the Oval Office last year, and even his biggest supporters have grown frustrated over his Middle East war.
And with a messy, jam-packed slate of primaries now all but in the rearview mirror, Democrats are determined to go on offense. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has 58 seats on its midterm target map that stretches into redder territory — while still facing an uphill climb to take the Senate.
Trump has a massive war chest at his disposal. His MAGA Inc. super PAC reached $400 million in June. The president told Punchbowl he plans to use it to “help Republicans,” but he stressed that he faces no pressure in this campaign cycle.
“I said to somebody, ‘Wait a minute, you don’t understand, I won,’” Trump said, referencing his 2024 presidential election victory. “I’m not campaigning.”
The biggest issue for Republicans this year? That Trump himself is not on the ballot, he said.
“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote? And that’s the one thing I can’t tell, I’m going to ask them to,” he said.
The Senate’s plan to get out of town is coming together.
Majority Leader John Thune teed up a final vote on the Russia sanctions legislation for this morning, as well as a confirmation vote for dozens of nominees and a procedural step on a stopgap funding bill.
But there’s still a number of questions that need to be answered if Thune wants to adjourn for recess by the end of the day:
— BLANCHE’S FATE: President Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general needs to secure at least one more vote to be confirmed before the break.
It looks like it’s all up to Sen. Bill Cassidy after Sen. Lisa Murkowski announced Friday morning she is opposed. Thune indicated Thursday night Blanche’s fate was uncertain and that leaders were “still working to get the final vote.”
— SAVE AMERICA ACT: Thune said to expect a vote related to the SAVE America Act as well as an initial vote on a budget blueprint for a third party-line spending bill — which includes elements of Trump’s election security legislation.
The decision to hold the budget vote comes after two Republican senators, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Blue Light News Thursday they believed Sen. Mike Lee or another member of the GOP’s right flank would have otherwise forced a vote on the framework.
But as we’ve previously reported, Republicans don’t believe the budget resolution has the votes within the conference to be adopted — meaning the expected initial vote today will fail to clear a simple majority threshold.
And it’s not clear Lee or like-minded senators will be satisfied and allow for lawmakers to adjourn for recess without more action on the elections measure. The senator has made similar threats over the past year but has never followed through.
— TIME AGREEMENT: GOP leaders need to strike an agreement to finish other business, including passing the stopgap government funding bill and advancing a college sports bill.
At this point, any single senator could still object to expediting the chamber’s agenda, which would derail Thune’s goal of getting members out of town by the end of the day.
“We’ve been having these conversations with Democrats trying to figure out what’s the path,” Thune said.
“We’ll see how it goes,” he added.
What else we’re watching:
— GOP EXPECTS CRYPTO BILL DELAY: The Senate will leave for the chamber’s August recess without holding a vote on a landmark cryptocurrency bill, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Thune may still file cloture on the bill, but it likely won’t come to the floor until lawmakers return to Washington next month, two of the people said.
— COLLEGE SPORTS BILL STUMBLES: Sens. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell’s legislation to impose new guardrails on college sports is looking increasingly unlikely to hit the floor this week. Eleven senators objected to expedited consideration of the Protect College Sports Act after Thune filed cloture earlier this week, two people familiar with discussions told Blue Light News.
— OGLES OUSTED: GOP House leaders lost an incumbent — and a perennial headache — with Rep. Andy Ogles’ primary defeat in Tennessee Thursday night. His loss to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher represents the second Trump-endorsed candidate to lose a primary this week.
Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy, Andrew Howard and Jacob Wendler contributed to this report.
Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination is on the brink after Sen. Lisa Murkowski announced Friday that she would oppose confirming him.
The Alaska Republican said in a statement that she did not believe Blanche, who has been serving as acting attorney general since April, would act to rein in President Donald Trump and reverse the “politicization—even weaponization” of the Justice Department that has “accelerated” under Trump.
“The country needs an Attorney General who will check the worst impulses of this administration,” she said. “I hope Mr. Blanche is able to achieve that, if confirmed, but I simply do not have confidence that will be the case.”
Blanche’s fate is now thought to come down to Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who has been increasingly critical of the president since losing his renomination campaign to a Trump-backed Republican earlier this year.
Cassidy met with Blanche alongside Murkowski Wednesday afternoon but hasn’t yet said how he will vote. Blanche has to win his support in order to be confirmed, given unified opposition from Democrats and opposition from Murkowski and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
The extended absence of Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky for health reasons has also left Republicans short of a vote.
Murkowski cited Blanche’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files and the settlement agreement reached between Trump and the IRS under his watch as well as DOJ’s “repeated targeting” of Trump’s political enemies.
Senate Republicans rejecting Blanche would be a significant blow to Trump, who has pressured GOP senators to support Blanche over the past week as his nomination has been in limbo. And it would come as he’s already fuming at the conference, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, over their inability to end the legislative filibuster and pass the elections bill known as the SAVE America Act.
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