Politics

‘Knife’s edge’: US-Mexico relationship teeters as World Cup begins

Published

3 months ago

June 12, 2026

Just after halftime in their country’s match against South Africa Thursday afternoon, Mexican embassy officials were nervous.

Forward Julián Quiñones scored a goal in the first nine minutes, and spirits were high at the embassy’s Washington D.C. watch party where mini-burritos, cervezas and — in a nod to the bilateral relationship — McDonald’s hamburgers and walking tacos were flowing freely. But South Africa’s shots on Mexico’s goal were creating staccatos of panic as the score remained 1-0.

“So far, so good — but it could be better,” one diplomat quipped.

Talk to Mexican officials, diplomats and business leaders, and it’s a sentiment that’s apropos of the current state of the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Mexico as the two countries, along with Canada, kick off six weeks of World Cup festivities.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum — who did not attend the opening match — has earned plaudits on both sides of the border for her behind-the-scenes work to cultivate a solid working relationship with President Donald Trump, despite vastly different political orientations and persistent friction over migration, drug trafficking and trade.

Sheinbaum’s domestic challenges were also on full display outside the historic Azteca stadium on Thursday, where hundreds of protestors demanding pay raises for teachers and more resources for the search of 130,000 missing persons in Mexico clashed with police and threw cones and other projectiles into the security perimeter.

Now, at what should be a continental high-water mark — as North America unites to host the World Cup — the relationship is instead facing its greatest test. Tensions are running high over the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, a brewing extradition standoff over several Morena party officials — including the governor of Sinaloa — and Trump’s fresh threats on Wednesday to target drugs “coming in by land” via Mexico.

“It’s on a knife’s edge,” said Arturo Sarukhán, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. during the Bush and Obama administrations. “The paradox is that all of this is playing out as the World Cup kicks off, a World Cup that should have been a moment to celebrate the promise of North America, and to talk about the future of a North American century.”

The strain on the bilateral relationship beyond the World Cup is existential for Mexico — about 80 percent of the country’s exports flow to the United States — but also for the U.S. Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with two-way trade topping $872 billion in 2025, accounting for roughly 15 percent of all goods coming into the U.S. And the integration runs deep into American supply chains, like autos and electronics, meaning that anything that seriously destabilizes the relationship is bad economic news for the U.S.

For now, the anxiety is largely one-directional, as Trump world remains broadly bullish on the U.S.-Mexico relationship even amid genuine turbulence. Two CIA officers were killed in an April crash in Chihuahua that revealed U.S. intelligence operatives working in the field alongside Mexican state investigators without, Mexican officials say, the federal government’s authorization. The Sinaloa indictments followed just over a week later.

“It’s a pressure point, but I also think if you ask people who work on this, they’d say that — relative to where we’ve been in the past — the security cooperation with Mexico is pretty good under Sheinbaum,” said Alex Gray, a former senior National Security Council official in the first Trump administration. “I think things are, all things considered, not bad.”

Even the original architects of the 2026 World Cup bid, which was won during the first Trump administration, agree that cracks in the U.S.-Mexico relationship were a more serious issue eight years ago.

North American soccer executives told Blue Light News that bringing the U.S. together with Mexico wasn’t easy at a time when Trump was calling NAFTA — the precursor to USMCA — “a disaster” and demanding Mexico pay for his border wall.

White House aides laud Sheinbaum’s cooperation on everything from preventing the spread of Ebola heading into the World Cup to efforts to combat drug trafficking. A senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the bilateral relationship, described it simply as “good.”

“I mean, there have been shared responsibilities, like, for example, the whole Ebola thing, right? We worked with them and Canada to ensure that there is proper vetting of individuals coming into the countries,” the official said. “We’re obviously working with her on combatting cartels on many fronts, so it’s good.”

The Mexican embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

Yet Mexican officials have watched the relationship unfold with a kind of cognitive dissonance, marked by progress in one lane and crisis in another. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin’s meeting last month with Sheinbaum in Mexico, for instance, was seen as a positive step for the bilateral relationship, particularly for the security cooperation that has underpinned it.

But that goodwill is being tested on several fronts. The Morena indictments are creating a domestic quagmire for Sheinbaum, who is demanding “overwhelming and irrefutable proof” before moving against Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and the nine other current and former Mexican officials who have been charged by the U.S. Justice Department with drug trafficking and weapons offenses.

Trade talks between the two countries had also been going reasonably well — so much so that the two have been talking without Canada even at the table. But Trump on Wednesday injected a fresh dose of uncertainty by saying he was “not looking to renew” the pact and dismissed the notion that the U.S. needed either of its neighbors. And the countries are all but certain to miss the July 1 date to renew the agreement, with a third round of talks scheduled in Mexico City the week of July 20.

The uncertainty has left proponents of the bilateral relationship nervously reading the tea leaves of Trump’s public appearances for any indication of growing irritation with Sheinbaum.

“What I’m seeing is it’s not just one single relationship: We have several individual and topic-based agendas. You have something very good in one hand and something struggling in the other. What we’re trying obviously is to have an umbrella relationship that is good, that makes the other individual agendas also good,” said Enrique Perret, managing director of the U.S.-Mexico Foundation. “But right now we don’t have that good umbrella relationship. That’s what we’re missing.”

The two leaders still have yet to meet at the White House, a move that some south of the border see as a carefully calculated effort on Sheinbaum’s part to not take any unnecessary gambles with the relationship, and avoid the kind of Oval Office spectacle that became commonplace between Trump and world leaders last year.

The two have only met once in person — at the official draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in December. Whether they’ll appear together at any games in the coming weeks remains an open question.

Politics

Crypto weighs revenge against Democrats — and the risks that come with it

Published

4 hours ago

September 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The cryptocurrency industry is at a political crossroads.

Reeling from the demise of its longtime top legislative priority, crypto companies must now decide how scorched-earth to go against Senate Democrats, who last week voted unanimously against the so-called Clarity Act, a sweeping bill that would create a bespoke new regulatory framework for digital assets.

A crypto-backed PAC network’s move this week provides a hint of what may be to come. The group, known as Fairshake, announced it would spend at least $30 million to help block Democrat Sherrod Brown from recapturing a pivotal Ohio Senate seat, representing the first major signal of how the industry plans to deploy its massive campaign war chest in the final weeks before the 2026 midterms.

Some crypto executives have publicly signaled an appetite in recent days for punishing Democrats. But a partisan strategy carries major political risk for the industry: A broad offensive against Democrats ahead of an election where they have a chance to reclaim power on Capitol Hill could further alienate lawmakers the industry may soon need to revive its agenda.

“As much as some people may want to, they can’t wave a wand and make Democrats go away,” said Sheila Warren, the former CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, an industry trade group. “Every industry — not just crypto — has to figure out what to do with that reality.”

The crypto industry’s spending could have immediate consequences after the election. Democrats are signaling that a Senate GOP-aligned spending spree would suppress any appetite for lame duck dealmaking involving the Clarity bill — although it remains a long shot that it would come back to life regardless. A Senate Democratic aide involved in the crypto effort said a full-scale assault on the party’s Senate candidates “would absolutely eviscerate any hope” of a post-election deal.

The Fairshake PAC group, funded primarily by crypto firms Coinbase and Ripple and venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz, had more than $120 million at its disposal as of the end of August. It has previously deployed its war chest to help members of both parties who support industry-friendly policies.

Fairshake is preparing to announce additional spending decisions supporting both Democrats and Republicans in the coming days, according to a spokesperson for the group, Geoff Vetter. But it’s unclear what races — or which chamber — it will target next.

Kara Calvert, Coinbase’s vice president of U.S. policy, said in an interview that bipartisanship has been crypto’s “superpower.”

“Nobody is eager to erode that,” she said.

Though Fairshake says it will maintain a bipartisan approach, it hasn’t specified what shape that will take. One potential avenue for the PAC is to continue to back crypto-friendly Democrats running for the House — where the Clarity bill advanced with 78 Democratic votes last year — but primarily help Republicans in the Senate.

Fairshake spent in favor of several Senate Democrats in the 2024 elections, including in battleground general election races in Michigan and Arizona, where it backed Democratic Sens. Elissa Slotkin and Ruben Gallego, respectively. It also plowed more than $40 million into the effort to help defeat Brown in his 2024 reelection campaign — by far its biggest spend of the cycle.

This time, Republicans are pressing the industry to recalibrate its approach and ditch the Democrats.

“To reward people who voted against the motion to proceed on Clarity after the Democrats got 126 amendments in the bill would be a huge mistake,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis, the crypto bill’s leading champion in the Senate. The Wyoming Republican is retiring when her term ends in January.

Democrats, who feel increasingly confident about their chances in November despite the GOP’s spending advantages, say Republicans are trying to play the crypto industry.

It’s “been the goal of Republican colleagues all along to try to get folks to invest in races, versus them trying to get a piece of legislation done, and someone needs to call the Republicans out on their bullshit,” said Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), who added: “Sherrod’s gonna win.”

Politics

Can Mitch Landrieu break through in 2028?

Published

4 hours ago

September 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Can Mitch Landrieu break through in 2028?

lead image

Politics

Sen. Jon Husted: Iran war ‘needs to come to an end as quickly as possible’

Published

19 hours ago

September 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Jon Husted became the latest battleground Republican this week to call for a quick end to the Iran war, as panic grows over how high gas prices and President Donald Trump’s agenda could imperil the party’s chances in November.

“The war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices,” the Ohio senator told Blue Light News, in his furthest comments yet on the matter.

Coming after Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson, who broke from Trump over the war on Monday, and Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who followed suit hours later, Husted’s comments are another example of the pressure he and other Republicans are under to address prices at the pump. Several candidates are creating some distance from Trump, as voters continue to blame the president for the current economy and the Iran conflict for high costs of living.

Husted said in the interview that he still thinks Iran needs to reach a deal with Trump to end the conflict, but added: “I don’t know anybody that doesn’t want the war to come to an end.”

He has a finer line to walk with Trump in his state, and Republicans close to him say he can’t and won’t completely break with the president. Husted does not plan to support the Democratic-led war powers resolution when it comes up for a vote in the Senate this week, a spokesperson said. And Trump and Vice President JD Vance are expected to visit the state in the coming weeks to shore up his campaign and drive GOP turnout.

Husted is staring down a tight race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, where millions in spending and recent polling have put Brown slightly ahead. Top Hill Republicans and Senate GOP operatives have said the Ohio Senate race is among their primary concerns in the battle to keep control of the chamber.

But Ohio is just one in a series of battlegrounds where rising gas prices have become a defining issue. Beyond Hinson and Rogers, a growing number of Republicans are starting to call for emergency actions like a diesel export ban to lower gas prices, including Iowa GOP Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

“Hinson broke the dam,” said one GOP operative, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is locked in an incredibly competitive race, called Tuesday for a diesel export ban to provide voters relief. He didn’t mention the Iran war.

The panic is being felt most acutely in the Midwest, as high gas and diesel prices and Trump’s tariffs hammer families, truckers and farmers just a few weeks ahead of the peak harvest season with no relief in sight.

By Sunday night, Rogers had filmed an ad at a grocery store decrying high prices and, straight to camera, breaking with Trump to call for an end to the Iran war, according to two Republicans involved in the matter, granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

Rogers’ team was putting the finishing touches on the ad Monday morning when Hinson posted her break with Trump over the war directly on social media.

“The war’s just gone on too long. Mike still thinks Iran shouldn’t have a nuclear weapon, but we originally thought this would take six weeks,” said one person with direct knowledge of the conversations in Rogers’ camp about the move. “Voters have been paying for it at their kitchen tables for too long.”

Michigan’s GOP nominee for governor, Rep. John James, also said Tuesday the Iran war needs to end “quickly.” And Rep. Tom Tiffany, Wisconsin’s GOP governor nominee, said Tuesday he believes “we should be exiting Iran, that it’s time to move on, we’ve degraded their nuclear facilities, we’ve degraded their military … time to come home, take care of business here in America.”

Trump, for his part, told reporters Tuesday that he asked his team to consider a diesel export ban, and that his administration is mulling it.

But the move is rife with internal GOP fighting behind the scenes: Trump’s team is getting an earful from GOP lawmakers in oil states who oppose the move, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. That makes any decision before the midterms highly problematic with at least one corner of the party.

Both the top House GOP leaders — Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise — have opposed similar measures from the past to protect their oil state of Louisiana. The Texas GOP delegation is also “strongly opposed,” according to another Republican.

Husted told Blue Light News on Tuesday that he supports his state legislature suspending Ohio’s gas tax for a period. Democrat Amy Acton, who is running for governor, called for a gas tax suspension Monday. Her GOP opponent Vivek Ramaswamy and a broader swath of Republicans called for the state legislature to convene and pass legislation to suspend the state’s gas tax hours later.

“I think in the long run we are going to have lower gas prices,” Husted said, citing the war in Ukraine as a factor for spiking diesel costs as well as the war with Iran. “It’s taking longer than any of us wish it would. So in the interim, while those things are concluding, the idea of providing relief from the gas tax for Ohioans for a short period of time is a reasonable thing for Governor [Mike] DeWine to consider.”