Politics

‘We need to stop the contagion’: GOP ramps up midterms defense in Trump states

Published

4 weeks ago

September 22, 2026

Republicans are playing defense deep in their own territory as voter anger over price hikes puts more House and Senate seats in play in the midterms.

New rounds of big spending, visits from Trump administration officials and private conversations among top GOP officials overseeing the battle for control of Congress reveal a party rushing to shore up red seats and states President Donald Trump won handily in 2024.

In the House, the fight has expanded far outside the few-dozen seats considered the most competitive as Republicans start to unleash their massive warchest: Since Aug. 1, more than $110 million in ad bookings have gone toward Republican-held districts so red that Trump won them by double digits.

In the Senate, Republicans are racing to shore up Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted as the Midwest struggles under the weight of Trump’s tariffs and high diesel prices. Trump and Vice President JD Vance are both expected to travel to the state before the midterms to boost Husted, according to four people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss not-yet-public plans.

GOP leaders are also trying to keep a handle on contests in Iowa and Kansas — and they’ve quietly begun deprioritizing Georgia and even North Carolina, which a growing number of Republicans are privately bracing for Democrats to flip.

“We need to stop the contagion,” said one senior GOP official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape.

“The map is hilariously big right now,” said one national Republican pollster.

Since Aug. 1, nearly two-thirds of advertising funds in House races have been booked or spent in races with GOP incumbents, according to a Blue Light News analysis of data from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.

That includes nearly $18 million to embattled Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District; $14.6 million to Texas’ 15th District where Monica De La Cruz faces a challenge from Tejano Singer Bobby Pulido; $9.6 million in Alaska where Rep. Nick Begich faces a challenge from independent Bill Hill; and millions more to other districts that Trump carried by double digits two years ago.

The GOP holds a massive cash advantage over Democrats — which, for now, means they can afford to spend more broadly. Republican groups are dividing up the spending deluge in the final weeks ahead of the midterms, with Trump’s MAGA Inc. affiliated super PAC spending heavily to shore up safer red seats and deter Democrats from pushing into those races.

“The voter enthusiasm [for Republican voters] is not where it needs to be but that’s where a money advantage can make a really big impact,” said Mark Bednar, a GOP strategist and former communications director for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Republicans have adjusted their Senate map expectations: They’re still bullish about Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. They’re not as optimistic about North Carolina — which Trump won in 2024 — but they are hoping to force Democrats to spend more there.

Republicans are more concerned about Alaska and Texas. And their worries about Ohio have escalated amid soaring diesel prices and backlash to tariffs — challenges they’re also confronting in Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Kansas.

Already two battleground candidates have called for ends to the Iran war, pointing to the high prices: Iowa GOP Senate nominee Ashley Hinson, whose team has grown increasingly wary of the tight race and Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers. Both Hinson and Rogers use top Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to guide their campaigns.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Hinson’s and Rogers’ remarks.

Senior GOP operatives’ own internal polling shows Trump’s approval underwater in deep red states across the country. And an Iowa poll conducted last week by a Democratic-leaning pollster found Democrat Josh Turek with a one-point lead in the Senate race and Trump’s approval at 43 percent in the state he won by more than 13 percentage points in 2024, according to a copy of the poll obtained by Blue Light News.

“As more races come online, it very clearly is a defensive map for Republicans across the country,” said a national GOP strategist working on multiple battleground races.

In Ohio, Republicans are optimistic that their attacks on former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s voting record are starting to break through, based on recent internal polling. But they’ve been conveying to outside groups for weeks that they need help reinforcing vulnerable incumbents like Husted. On Monday, the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake said it planned to unleash $30 million against Brown, who was the top Democrat on the Banking Committee before losing reelection in 2024 — fueled in part by more than $40 million against him from Fairshake that year.

“The stakes go far beyond one Senate seat,” Amy Natoce, a Husted campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Control of the Senate will determine which agenda moves forward in Washington: Sherrod Brown’s out-of-touch socialist agenda, or Jon Husted’s agenda of lower taxes, a secure border, and an economy that rewards hard work.”

One Michigan Republican acknowledged the immense weight of the tariffs in races across the battleground state — including in the marquee Senate contest between Rogers and progressive Abdul El-Sayed, as well as across competitive House races.

“Everywhere we go, we are getting hammered on it,” the Michigan Republican said. “It’s crushing us.”

Iowa GOP Senate candidate, Rep. Ashley Hinson, speaks during a BBQ fundraiser on Aug. 29, 2026.

Even skeptical Republicans have been quietly checking in with their colleagues to see if the panic in redder territory is borne out in reality on the ground or just overblown polling. One GOP lawmaker who spoke to Hinson and her campaign team was somewhat surprised by their answers.

“It’s real,” that House Republican told Blue Light News.

And Blue Light News overheard a senior member of Kansas’ Republican party leadership complaining about their state’s tighter-than-expected race at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month. GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, the person said, was in some trouble even as Republicans tried to dismiss the seriousness of his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton.

Trump and Vance, meanwhile, continue to travel to states they won by double digits in 2024 to stump for Republican candidates, as Trump-aligned super PACs hammer the airwaves in far more red territory than blue.

Recently-formed super PACs aligned with MAGA Inc. — Trump’s main spending vehicle that holds more than $400 million — have spent in 42 House districts so far, 30 defensive and 12 offensive. On average, they are spending in areas that voted for Trump by 7.9 points in 2024, according to a Blue Light News analysis.

The PACs are even spending in some districts Trump carried by 15 points as a way to shore up Republicans and deter Democratic advances, according to Republicans involved in the conversations.

Major Republican super PACs, including the Trump aligned-super PACs and party-linked groups, have spent in more than two dozen GOP-held seats where Trump won by at least 5 points in 2024.

“Republicans aren’t taking anything for granted this cycle and will deploy whatever resources necessary to protect our majorities and prevent Democrats from taking control,” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said in a statement.

The NRSC argued that “Democrats lack quality candidates and a clear path to victory,” so the party is “feigning optimism” and looking to candidates who have lost before, including Brown, “to somehow deliver [a] majority.” The NRCC said their opposition is “too broke to fight back.”

The geography of the Senate map still favors the GOP this cycle: Democrats have to defend all of their seats, while flipping four Republican-held ones, to take control of the upper chamber.

Republicans believe they have a real shot at flipping New Hampshire, and public polling shows Minnesota’s Senate race closer than expected, forcing Democrats to pay some minor attention to a state Kamala Harris won in 2024.

And Republicans are still hopeful that their mid-decade gerrymandering push could still give them a structural advantage as they fight to defend the House. Republicans won the redistricting war that erupted last summer and will likely net at least six seats from it.

But as economic concerns continue to dominate — with little relief in sight — Democrats are growing increasingly bullish.

“You know, I look at places like Kansas where I never thought we’d have a chance, or South Carolina or even Mississippi, these places are longshots, but they look like they’re competitive,” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) said.

For their part, senior Republicans have been working the problem from two ends, trying to gently persuade Trump in private conversations to back off some of his recent policy moves and wind down the war in Iran — while also organizing a wave of cash reinforcements across the growing map to try to stem the bleeding.

GOP lawmakers pressed Trump officials at their Dallas convention and since then to take emergency actions around fuel prices and refinery capacity. A band of House Republicans led an unsuccessful attempt to vote on a federal gas tax suspension until after Election Day. And, over the weekend, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) posted several direct appeals to Trump, asking why he hasn’t put an embargo on diesel exports.

But many are convinced the bleeding won’t stop until voters get some relief at the pump.

“The question is: How much longer can we go?” one senior House Republican said.

Politics

Haley Stevens is everywhere — except on the trail for El-Sayed

Published

1 day ago

October 16, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Haley Stevens is highly visible in the wake of her Senate primary loss: Meeting with the Dalai Lama, crashing “TMZ Live” with her new fiancee, getting spoofed on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon.

One place she hasn’t been spotted: alongside her former rival Abdul El-Sayed.

Even though the representative quickly endorsed El-Sayed after their bruising Aug. 4 primary, she’s done little to help him since. That absence is becoming more conspicuous in the closing weeks of a crucial Senate contest, as some of her old supporters continue to vocally resist backing him.

In an interview, Stevens said El-Sayed is building a “new coalition” in the race against GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers — and suggested it’s not her place to push some of her more skeptical supporters into joining it.

When asked if she was encouraging her former donors to help El-Sayed, she said she believes her role this election is to “be part of the coordinated campaign, support where I can,” mentioning Michigan House races. When asked again if she would push donors to back him, she responded: “That’s Elissa’s thing,” referring to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who has been fundraising for El-Sayed. “I didn’t win a Senate primary,” she continued. “It’s not like a salty grapes deal or anything.”

Stevens said she’d checked in with El-Sayed’s team, but hadn’t met with the candidate himself recently because she’d been traveling.

“There’s changing dynamics, and there’s a new coalition that Abdul has built, and some people are a die-hard part of it, and some people are not. We’re seeing some constituent community pain coming out,” Stevens said, referencing resistance to El-Sayed among some Black and Jewish voters who backed her in the primary.

“Rogers is working the Black community harder and more successfully than we have ever seen a Republican do or at least that I can remember — ever,” Stevens said.

“But we’re also seeing Abdul go up to the UP [Upper Peninsula] and we’re seeing him fill venues in rural Michigan and it’s very real in terms of this coalition he’s built,” she added.

El-Sayed ran particularly strongly during the primary with young voters and in the state’s large Arab-American community, as well as in some rural, more populist parts of the state, and is working hard to expand that coalition in the general election.

Stevens’ remarks come as some of her former backers and financial boosters continue to publicly withhold support from El-Sayed and in some cases openly embrace his Republican rival. The ruptures are most visible among the Jewish and Black communities that largely broke for Stevens, and point to enduring friction within Michigan Democrats’ traditional coalition after a bitter primary that she could be in a unique position to mend.

Debbie Rosenman, the chair of Birmingham-Bloomfield Area Democratic Party Club in Stevens’ backyard and an El-Sayed supporter, said Stevens has been “absent” on the trail and said she was “very concerned” her coalition is not coalescing around El-Sayed.

“I feel that that could change with more of her public support,” Rosenman said.

El-Sayed’s campaign said the former rivals’ teams keep in close touch and noted several Stevens staffers joined the nominee’s team after the primary.

“The Abdul campaign is grateful for Congresswoman Stevens’ immediate and sustained support,” El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner said in a statement.

El-Sayed has worked to repair relationships with Black and Jewish leaders. He has endorsements from several of them and is campaigning with prominent Democrats from both communities, including former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris and Slotkin, who is Jewish. He has made more than two dozen visits to Black churches and participated in more than 100 events and meetings with Black leaders, according to his campaign. He has hired a liaison to the Jewish community, keeps in regular contact with Jewish leaders and has apologized for his controversial remark after a synagogue attack in West Bloomfield in the spring that “hurt people hurt people.”

“I take very seriously that I’m going to represent a large community of Jewish Michiganders, and I want them to know that I’m committed to their safety and their well being, even if there are points in foreign policy on which we might disagree,” El-Sayed said in an interview.

Not everyone has come around.

David Kramer, Stevens’ primary campaign chair and a vice chair of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus who introduced Stevens to her fiance, is now working with Nonnegotiable Michigan, a group of Jewish leaders who have pledged to withhold their support from El-Sayed unless he adjusts his approach to Israel.

Kramer, a prominent Democratic fundraiser in the state who has also previously worked with Slotkin and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, told Blue Light News he’s not tapping his donor network for the general election and estimated he’s left upward of seven figures on the table that he could have raised to boost El-Sayed.

Brian Hermelin, a normally Democratic donor who backed Stevens in the primary and leads the Jewish Federation of Detroit, co-hosted a fundraiser for Republican nominee Mike Rogers shortly after the primary that raised roughly $200,000.

Rogers’ campaign has attempted to capitalize on those cracks by launching a “Democrats for Mike Rogers” group and making overtures to Jewish and Black voters. Bobby Schostak, a former Michigan GOP chair who is serving as Rogers’ finance chair, estimated the Republican’s campaign has brought in roughly $3 million to $4 million since the primary from “nontraditional Republican donors” across the country, including Democrats.

“The Democratic Party is still divided,” said Democrat Mary Waters, a Black Detroit city councilor who’s met with both El-Sayed and Rogers but remains undecided. “People are still so torn about what it is that they want to do.”

Joe Tate, a Black state representative from Detroit who supported Stevens, acknowledged there has been some lingering apprehension around El-Sayed. But he said Stevens’ endorsement of El-Sayed helped convince him to back the candidate and predicted Democratic voters would largely stand by their party, too.

El-Sayed’s donor network may look different from Stevens’, but he’s still posted big numbers. He raised nearly $33 million from July through September, which included some raised before the Aug. 4 primary, compared to Rogers’ nearly $10 million, and has been outspending Rogers on the airwaves.

Some of El-Sayed’s prominent surrogates have also taken steps to court apprehensive Democrats. Jewish leaders like former Rep. Andy Levin, a former synagogue president who Stevens defeated in a 2022 primary, are holding house parties with voters coordinated by the grassroots group Michigan Jews for Democracy. Slotkin has privately pressed senators and donors to boost El-Sayed’s bid.

That includes hosting a fundraiser for El-Sayed in Washington, D.C., in late September with donors who she described as initially “skeptical” of the nominee.

“I talked to them about why I thought it was important and how I don’t agree with Abdul on everything … but we agree on the really important things, and that’s putting a check and balance on this president,” Slotkin told Blue Light News in a brief hallway interview on Capitol Hill the next day. “And they donated.”

Politics

Senate Republicans are getting smoked in fundraising

Published

1 day ago

October 16, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Republican Senate candidates are hurting for cash.

Nearly every Democratic candidate in battleground Senate races outraised their GOP opponent from July through September. And in some cases, the disparities were stark.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico trounced Republican Ken Paxton $60.2 million to $10.2 million in their main campaign accounts.
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised $33.1 million to Rep. Mike Collins’ nearly $2.8 million.
In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper raised $12.2 million to Michael Whatley’s $2.1 million.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed hauled in roughly $33 million to former Rep. Mike Rogers’ nearly $10 million.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson raised $20.5 million to GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ $5.2 million.
In Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown hauled in $23.1 million to GOP Sen. Jon Husted’s $4.8 million.
In Iowa, Josh Turek raised $13.9 million to Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s nearly $3.3 million.
In Alaska, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $17 million to GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan’s nearly $2.7 million.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas brought in $8.1 million to Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu’s $1.5 million.
And in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton raised nearly $9.9 million to GOP Sen. Roger Marshall’s just $866,000.

Across those 10 Senate races, the Democratic campaigns raised more than five times as much as the Republican ones. Put another way: Talarico alone raised more than all those Republicans combined.

Marshall and Whatley each started October with less than $1 million left in the bank. Mike Collins wasn’t much better-positioned, entering the final weeks of the election with just over $1 million cash on hand.

These numbers do not include joint fundraising committees, which allow candidates to raise money and may have some more cash that has not yet been transferred to the campaigns.

Democrats have consistently outraised Republicans on the candidate level this cycle. But the yawning gaps heading into the midterm’s home stretch stand as the latest example of the deteriorating environment for the GOP.

And while GOP outside groups have significantly more money than Democrats, this candidate cash advantage matters because candidates get TV ads for much cheaper rates, letting their dollars stretch much farther.

To underscore how lopsided some of these figures are: At least half a dozen House Democratic challengers raised over $3 million in the third quarter — a sum higher than several GOP Senate incumbents.

There are some silver linings for the GOP.

In Minnesota, Republican Michele Tafoya raised $4.9 million to Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s $4.3 million. Tafoya started the month with $2.1 million to Flanagan’s $1.5 million.

Sullivan, Husted, Hinson, Rogers and Susan Collins all entered October with millions more in cash on hand than their Democratic opponents.

And Republicans are getting air cover from GOP super PACs bankrolled by billionaire Elon Musk and President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. that have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the midterms in recent weeks.

Musk was revealed on Thursday as the primary funder of Texas PAC, which has spent $131 million so far boosting Paxton and attacking Talarico. Musk gave $158 million to Senate Republicans’ super PAC arm last quarter, the filings showed, with the group in turn transferring the funds to the pro-Paxton PAC.

Republicans are also benefitting from a recent Supreme Court ruling that allows party committees to spend unlimited sums in coordination with candidates, allowing the National Republican Senatorial Committee to offset at least some of the differences.

Since the tranche of reports filed Thursday only cover until Sept. 30, the full scope of each candidates’ coffers is unknown.

But there are other signs that some are strapped for cash in the final sprint: Whatley has gone dark on television, a clear indication of him running low on funds even as his campaign insists it’s a temporary pause.