Politics
Inside the blame game roiling Georgia’s GOP Senate primary
Republicans once saw Georgia as the crown jewel of their Senate pickup opportunities. They’re now blaming each other as the GOP primary unravels into an intraparty brawl that could cost them their chance of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
The party is grappling with a crowded field, no dominant front-runner, no endorsement from President Donald Trump — and the reality that the May 19 primary will very likely extend into an expensive, bruising mid-June runoff.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), a close Trump ally, leads in public polling, with fellow Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Gov. Brian Kemp-endorsed former football coach Derek Dooley battling for second. But a large share of voters remain undecided, underscoring how fluid the race is. Meanwhile, incumbent Ossoff — who faces no primary challenge of his own — is keeping his powder dry and has amassed a formidable eight-figure campaign war chest ready to deploy in the general election.
“If Ossoff could write a playbook for how he wants this primary to go, this is exactly it,” said a GOP operative, who, like others interviewed for this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race’s dynamics. They said that Georgia is like a “red-headed stepchild” not getting any attention from Washington.
Republicans point to several unforced errors that got the party to this point. Some say their current challenges were set in motion last year, when they failed to convince the state’s popular outgoing GOP governor, Kemp, to run for Ossoff’s seat. Others point to a lackluster effort by the National Republican Senatorial Committee to recruit a stronger crop of candidates or unify the field. Many also fault Trump and Kemp, who have had a sometimes-testy relationship, for failing to agree on a candidate they both could support to avoid a costly primary.
“It’s not ideal that it looks like it’s going to runoff,” said Cole Muzio, president of the conservative Frontline Policy Council. “There was so much talk about Kemp and Trump getting together and finding a nominee together, landing the plane on one person. I’m not going to try to sort out what happened with that, but a unity nominee would have been ideal.”
The early finger-pointing that has emerged in conversations with a dozen GOP strategists and officials in Georgia reflects their deep frustration with the state of their primary — and their chances of holding onto the Senate majority. The party is fending off competitive Democratic candidates in several red states as voters sour on Trump’s agenda, making flipping Georgia even more of a priority.
“It’s a mess that could have been much less messy if they had figured this out six months ago,” said a second Georgia-based Republican strategist unaffiliated with any campaign. “Everybody’s resigned to this going to May and then a June runoff and then pick up the pieces after that.”
Early general election polling shows Ossoff leading all three potential GOP candidates in a head-to-head matchup. After five years in the Senate, he has built a formidable political operation, churned out razor-thin statewide wins and amassed a sizable fundraising cushion.
“Jon Ossoff has $24 million. Jon Ossoff is on TV all of the time, carefully articulating his positions, grilling Tulsi Gabbard — really being methodical,” said Ryan Mahoney, a GOP strategist unaffiliated in the race. “He has tons of resources — great name ID, a lot of exposure — while the Republicans are fighting against each other, trying to see who can break out and ultimately be the nominee.”
“He’s just in a great position,” Mahoney noted.
Still, several Republicans say they’re confident about their prospects in a state that Trump won in 2024, and they expect money and outside support to dramatically ramp up once their nominee is decided.
“Republicans created this problem. We created this problem and it’s not any one person,” the second GOP strategist said. “I still think a Republican can win, I just think we’re making it way harder.”
With around 40 percent of likely GOP primary voters still undecided, according to recent public polling, the Senate candidates have been jockeying for Trump’s blessing — an endorsement that could be pivotal in deciding the future of the race.
All three candidates have engaged with the White House directly. In an interview with conservative host Clay Travis’ Outkick podcast, Dooley said he met with Trump in the Oval Office last year and had a “very engaging conversation.” Carter, for his part, told Blue Light News in a brief interview that his campaign continues “to talk to the administration” about the race. Collins and the president have also met and discussed the race, according to a person familiar with the conversation. In February, Collins appeared onstage with the president during an event in Rome, Georgia, focused on Trump’s economic agenda.
Collins’ campaign recently released a lengthy memo outlining his argument for why the field should coalesce him around the primary. “[Democrats] are watching Republicans turn what should be the best pickup opportunity of the midterms into a needless intraparty squabble that wastes time and resources,” the memo reads. “Instead of spending the majority of 2026 focused on defeating Jon Ossoff, Republicans are on track to not be unified until late June, after a runoff, leaving the Republican nominee only four months to raise money and campaign across the largest state east of the Mississippi to unseat the Democrat.”
Most outside groups have been waiting to line up behind a clear front-runner, though Club for Growth PAC, a major conservative super PAC, has already endorsed Collins’ campaign — an unusual step for a group that usually acts in lockstep with the White House’s political strategy.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment regarding Trump’s thinking about the primary or his conversations with the three candidates.
Then there’s the Kemp factor.
After the governor declined to run, Republicans feared the primary could become a proxy war between himand Trump, who’ve previously clashed over Trump’s insistence that the 2020 election in Georgia was fraudulent. That hasn’t quite played out, with the president staying out of the race so far. But Kemp’s decision to back Dooley, the former football coach, means it’s unlikely they’ll find common ground.
Dooley has no prior experience in politics. State voting records show the former coach did not vote in presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 — attack fodder for his opponents as they seek Trump’s endorsement. (He did vote for Trump in 2024.)
“It’s no secret that the profile of a candidate that President Trump would prefer is much different than the profile of a candidate that Governor Kemp would prefer,” said a third local GOP strategist, who is unaffiliated in the race. “The nexus between those two just made it very hard, if not impossible, to come out with a consensus candidate.”
Garrison Douglas, a spokesperson for Kemp, doubled down on the governor’s support for Dooley in a statement and said he isn’t “wasting time worrying about the complaints of anonymous consultants.” Dooley spokesperson Connor Whitney said he’s confident Georgia voters will “choose the only political outsider in this race — not another stale D.C. politician.”
Carter spokesperson Chris Crawford rejected the criticism of running a messy primary, saying that “only in Washington do consultants think voters choosing their nominee is a problem.”
Collins, in a statement, expressed confidence in his ability to win the primary, and added that his campaign “would welcome any help to ensure we could wrap this up in May and get on to the main event.”
With Georgia in a holding pattern, some local Republicans worry that Washington’s attention is drifting toward Michigan, where former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has unified the party — and the president — around him in the state’s key battleground Senate race as a trio of Democrats battle it out in their own messy primary.
“There’s offense and defense. I think on offense, [Georgia] is still a top race. I think the only difference is that Michigan is a clear field. Rogers is ready to roll. He’s raising money. Dems have a mess on their side over there,” said one national Republican familiar with the party’s midterm strategy, who was granted anonymity to discuss behind-the-scenes planning.
Still, the person said they believe Georgia remains competitive, particularly if Republicans unify.
In a statement, Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the NRSC, said Ossoff “is the most vulnerable incumbent on the map” and Georgia “has been and remains a top state for Republicans to expand President Trump’s Senate Majority.”
But Republicans in the Peach State are skeptical.
“I sense from some Republicans a feeling that maybe Michigan is a better opportunity, and of course, one of the reasons … for that is, ‘well, the field’s been cleared,’” said a fourth GOP strategist in Georgia.
“It feels like D.C. is shifting to Michigan because of a problem that they could solve today,” said the second Georgia-based GOP strategist.
President Donald Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. That might backfire.
New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president.
It’s not uncommon for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year. But the lopsided findings are an ominous sign for Trump, who has fundamentally reshaped the GOP over the past decade and has once again staked his brand — and political capital — on delivering wins for Republicans in November.
With less than two weeks before the election, the poll suggests Republicans are pragmatic, and care more about preventing a blue wave than standing by Trump. And in a year when voter frustration over high pricesappears poised to play a major role, that distinction could prove consequential.
The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, reveals the extent to which frustration with Trump is driving Democrats: Nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will be voting “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared to just 38% of Republican voters who say they will be voting mainly to show support for Trump.
Instead, a plurality of Republican midterm voters — 48% — say their main motivation when casting a vote is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agree.
“[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.”
Half of Republicans think candidates have a better chance of winning if they align themselves with Trump rather than breaking from him, compared to just 30% who believe candidates would have a better chance of winning if they break away.
But half of Republicans also accept their candidates speaking out against the president if that’s what they need to do to win their own election. That’s compared with 37% who say candidates should remain loyal to the president and support his agenda, even if it means risking a loss.
On top of that, majorities of Republican voters say Trump himself should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues to win elections.
If it helps GOP candidates’ chances of winning, they said, the president should allow for disagreement on the speed of AI development, the cost of living, and whether the war in Iran was a good decision. That holds true for pluralities or even majorities of Trump 2024 voters who self-identify as part of the “MAGA” movement across each policy area, suggesting that even his most loyal voters want the president to let candidates distance themselves if it can help them win.
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle.
RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said “Blue Light News didn’t need to conduct a poll to know that Democrats are motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans.” She added that the GOP is “running on actual accomplishments like cutting taxes and securing the border,” while saying Democrats have made “investigations, obstruction, and impeachment” their campaign platform.
Still, the tension is playing out in real time as Republican candidates locked in competitive races walk a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s support — and that of his MAGA base — without alienating critical moderate and independent voters. They’re especially under pressure as Trump hits the campaign trail in battlegrounds and red states, with several candidates having to quietly make calculations whether it will hurt them politically to appear next to him.
“I think Republicans … are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” said a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. “There is no good answer.”
In Iowa, where voter frustration over some of Trump’s marquee policies, including tariffs and rising costs stemming from the Iran war, has mounted, Republican candidates have sought to create some distance from the president. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month.
Several other GOP candidates have also skipped Trump rallies in their home states, and many have grown increasingly wary of mentioning Trump in ads, including in red states that over the last few months have suddenly started to look competitive. In battleground Georgia, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump, avoiding public breaks with the president on policy but still limiting direct references to him in campaign ads and on the debate stage.
“I don’t know that Trump coming [to Georgia] helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson.
That leaves Republican candidates in a tricky position: Their voters are willing to accept breaking from Trump if victory is on the line, but voters — and candidates — won’t know what will cost them their race until it’s too late.
“There’s no reason to gratuitously attack the White House and make an enemy,” the national GOP operative said. “But the end game here is to get reelected, and if they have to get reelected, but the president’s annoyed at them for a period of time, they’ll get over it.”
While Republican candidates balance loyalty to Trump with the possibility of breaking away on certain issues, Democratic midterm voters remain highly motivated to vote against Trump’s agenda.
Even Trump’s endorsement of a Republican candidate seems to influence Democrats more than Republicans: Roughly 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared to 55% of Republican midterm voters who say the endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.
“The midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” said North Carolina based GOP strategist Paul Shumaker. “A lot of Republicans and swing voters feel like their expectations have not been met in helping address their economic concerns.”
Alec Hernández and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this story.
Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida?
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Democrats’ top Senate-focused super PAC will report raising $354 million through Oct. 14 — including roughly $88 million in the first two weeks of the month— as Democrats race to seize control of the upper chamber in the election’s closing weeks.
Senate Majority PAC shared their fundraising totals, which are higher than any previous cycle, with Blue Light News ahead of a Federal Election Commission deadline later Thursday. The super PAC had $32.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 14.
“This is already the strongest cycle in Senate Majority PAC’s history, and it’s arriving exactly when it counts,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We’re on the air across the battleground through Election Day, and every dollar is going toward beating price-gouging Republicans and winning back the Senate.”
That’s more than the $306 million SMP raised in the 2024 campaign cycle, according to FEC filings, its previous high.
SMP is still being outraised by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, in large part thanks to billionaire Elon Musk and other Republican megadonors. Musk gave $158 million to SLF in the third quarter, according to its most recent FEC report, and the super PAC in turn sent that money to Texas’ Senate race in order to boost the scandal-plagued GOP nominee Ken Paxton.
As of Sept. 30, SLF had raised more than $423 million for the cycle.
Democrats have been able to offset much of Republicans’ super PAC cash advantage on the airwaves because of stronger candidate fundraising.
But Republicans still have the advantage of a favorable map — and more outside money — as they hope to maintain control of at least one chamber of Congress next month.
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