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Capitol agenda: The health care talks to watch

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Senators will be voting on health care in about a week. Their chances of success are not good.

The most likely outcome: two failed votes on competing partisan proposals and no certain solution to the Affordable Care Act subsidy cliff.

But that doesn’t mean all is said and done. Senate Republicans and Democrats head into their respective party lunches Tuesday with lots of competing options to discuss. And even after the likely-to-fail Senate votes, talks will continue — with many lawmakers now viewing the Jan. 30 government funding deadline as the real drop-dead date.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said there’s “groundwork being laid that could end up in actually something getting done.”

Here are the multiple tracks to keep an eye on:

— The Senate Democratic proposal: Expect Democrats to discuss Tuesday what they plan to offer up next week. Most likely is a “clean” extension of the ACA subsidies that few Republicans support, though they could offer GOP-favored eligibility restrictions as an olive branch to conservatives.

— The Senate GOP alternative: Most Republicans expect a “side-by-side” vote with a GOP alternative to the Democratic bill. GOP Sens. Mike Crapo of Idaho and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana are preparing that counterproposal, though it’s unclear what that might include or when it would be introduced.

— The House GOP framework: House leaders have tasked three committees with assembling a package of bills which they are tentatively looking to put on the floor before the chamber’s scheduled Dec. 18 departure for the holiday recess. Don’t expect this to get any Democratic buy-in.

— The House centrists’ plan: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) told Blue Light News Monday he has talked with the White House about a bill he is working on and shopping with likeminded moderates that would largely mirror Donald Trump’s unreleased framework: “It’s one of those things where nobody’s going to love it. But hopefully enough people are okay with it.”

— The Senate bipartisan talks: If a passable product is ever going to emerge, it’s probably coming out of this effort dating back to before the government shutdown involving the likes of Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). They are looking to forge compromise on an extension of the subsidies, but there’s not much time left.

“The calendar is not necessarily our friend right now,” Murkowski said in a brief interview.

What else we’re watching:   

— Special election fight in Tennessee: Speaker Mike Johnson spent valuable time Monday boosting a Republican candidate in Tuesday’s Tennessee special election as the GOP hopes to shore up its slim House majority. Polling shows Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by only single-digit margins, catching the attention of the president and national Republicans as they scramble to hang onto what should be a deep-red district.

— Children’s internet safety hearing: A partisan fight is brewing over whether to include state AI laws in legislation to protect kids’ safety online. A House Energy and Commerce subcommittee will hold a hearing Tuesday on the issue, fulfilling a promise made by committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) to advance kids’ safety legislation.

— NDAA text coming Thursday: House Armed Services plans to release text for the National Defense Authorization Act on Thursday, Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said Monday night. Rogers said he believes a moratorium on state AI regulation will not make it into the final version of the NDAA, despite an effort from Trump and some GOP leaders to include the language.

Jordain Carney, Calen Razor, Meredith Lee Hill, Katherine Long and Alfred Ng contributed to this report.

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Congress

Max Miller subpoenas ex-father-in-law Bernie Moreno

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Rep. Max Miller issued a subpoena to his former father-in-law and fellow Ohio Republican, Sen. Bernie Moreno, in the latest escalation of a long-running family legal drama.

Pamela MacAdams, an attorney for Miller, reported to the Cuyahoga County Domestic Relations Court Monday that three subpoenas were served in Miller’s divorce case, according to court records. A person with knowledge of the subpoenas granted anonymity to comment on them said that two were sent to Moreno and his wife, Bridget.

Their daughter, Emily Moreno, was married to Miller, and the two remain embroiled in a nasty legal battle.

Spokespeople for Miller, Emily Moreno and Bernie Moreno did not immediately return requests for comment. TMZ first reported on the subpoenas.

Miller is seeking reelection in a competitive district, and his campaign has been marred by accusations of domestic abuse against Emily Moreno and their daughter. Miller has repeatedly denied the allegations and chose to remain in the race despite other Republican lawmakers pressuring him to withdraw his campaign.

The House Ethics Committee, which began an inquiry into Miller after Miller asked to be investigated, is currently in a preelection blackout period. During that period, which will continue through the midterms, the Ethics Committee doesn’t take any action against sitting members who could return next Congress.

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Trump declares $1B canceled in ‘pocket rescission’ in another affront to Congress’ funding power

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President Donald Trump informed congressional leaders Friday that he has unilaterally canceled almost $1 billion without Congress’ consent — employing a budget maneuver many lawmakers consider illegal.

In a move that will almost certainly set up an ugly government funding battle after the midterms, Trump has again claimed the power to execute a so-called “pocket rescission” to nix money Congress has already enacted. The money his administration will claw back is for for immigration services, support to foreign countries, education programs, health research efforts and assistance for businesses owned by minorities.

By law, the president is allowed to send Congress a request to rescind federal funding, then withhold that money for 45 days while lawmakers consider whether to approve, reject or ignore it. Trump administration officials also argue they have the power to cancel funding without any congressional action by sending Congress a rescission request with less than 45 days left in the fiscal year. The argument is that the money automatically gets canceled on Sept. 30, when funding lapses at the end of the fiscal year.

Last year, Trump canceled $4.9 billion in foreign aid.

The Senate’s top Republican appropriator, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, immediately blasted the move as illegal, saying in a statement Friday night that “any effort to rescind appropriated funds without congressional approval is a clear violation of the law.”

“This move shows that OMB intentionally withheld these funds for months to execute this unlawful cancellation of appropriations that were approved on a bipartisan basis and signed into law,” Collins added, pledging to work with other lawmakers “to address these illegal actions.”

Collins and other appropriators have already been on high alert in recent days, pressing multiple agencies about funding officials have yet to spend ahead of the expiration date.

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Gallego grades Democrats on their midterm messaging to men

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Democrats are finally catching on to how to talk to young male voters in the lead-up to the midterms, but the party can still up its game, one battleground senator and potential 2028er said Friday.

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has been one of his party’s most outspoken critics on its handling of outreach to young men, who swung right and helped deliver the White House and both chambers of Congress to Republicans in 2024.

The party is now “definitely moving in the right direction,” Gallego said Friday.

“Like back in the day, I was like the only one,” putting out positions on men, Gallego said at a Washington event on young American men. “Now, like, it seems like everyone every week is coming out with a new position, new idea, which is great.”

Gallego has criticized Democrat’s failure to highlight mens’ struggles and their tendency to over-police mens’ ideas. But there are signs the political winds have shifted in his party’s favor.

A new Cygnal poll released with the event of men ages 18-30 who say they’re the most determined to vote revealed Democrats’ generic ballot lead over Republicans at 57%-40%, Blue Light News reported. The poll also said nearly 40 percent of respondents said they feel their lives are off track.

“We need to take the opportunity to invest in that portion of this country, to say that we care about them and actually try to change the trajectory of what’s happening with men in this country,” Gallego said at the symposium.

Still, the path for specific legislation targeting the needs of this demographic faces an incredibly tight calendar this Congress and is uncertain in the political landscape of next year.

A proposal from Gallego and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) to establish a men’s health office within the Department of Health and Human Services, for example, has not advanced. Nor has bipartisan legislation from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who also spoke at the event, targeting education outcomes, college investment transparency and dyslexic student support.

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