The Dictatorship

After US foreign aid cuts, private donors gave more than $125M to keep programs going

Published

6 months ago

October 28, 2025

After US foreign aid cuts, private donors gave more than $125M to keep programs going

NEW YORK (AP) — When the Trump administration froze foreign assistance overnight, urgent efforts began to figure out how to continue critical aid programs that could be funded by private donors.

Multiple groups launched fundraisers in February and eventually, these emergency funds mobilized more than $125 million within eight months, a sum that while not nearly enough, was more than the organizers had ever imagined possible.

In those early days, even with needs piling upwealthy donors and private foundations grappled with how to respond. Of the thousands of programs the U.S. funded abroad, which ones could be saved and which would have the biggest impact if they continued?

“We were fortunate enough to be in connection with and communication with some very strategic donors who understood quickly that the right answer for them was actually an answer for the field,” said Sasha Gallant, who led a team at the U.S. Agency for International Development that specialized in identifying programs that were both cost effective and impactful.

Working outside of business hours or after they’d been fired, members of Gallant’s team and employees of USAID’s chief economist’s office pulled together a list that eventually included 80 programs they recommended to private donors. In September, Project Resource Optimization, as their effort came to be called, announced all of the programs had been funded, with more than $110 million mobilized in charitable grants. Other emergency funds raised at least an additional $15 million.

Those funds are just the most visible that private donors mobilized in response to the unprecedented withdrawal of U.S. foreign aidwhich totaled $64 billion in 2023, the last year with comprehensive figures available. It’s possible private foundations and individual donors gave much more, but those gifts won’t be reported for many months.

For the Trump administration, the closure of USAID was a cause for celebration. In July, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the agency had little to show for itself since the end of the Cold War.

“Development objectives have rarely been met, instability has often worsened, and anti-American sentiment has only grown,” Rubio said in a statement.

Going forward, Rubio said the State Department will focus on providing trade and investment, not aid, and will negotiate agreements directly with countries, minimizing the involvement of nonprofits and contractors.

Some new donors were motivated by the emergency

Some private donations came from foundations, who decided to grant out more this year than they had planned and were willing to do so because they trusted PRO’s analysis, Gallant said. For example, the grantmaker GiveWell said it gave out $34 million to directly respond to the aid cuts, including $1.9 million to a program recommended by PRO.

Annie, right, and her husband Jacob Ma-Weaver are photographed in San Francisco, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Others were new donors, like Jacob and Annie Ma-Weaver, a San Francisco-based couple in their late-thirties who, through their work at a hedge fund and a major tech company respectively, had earned enough that they planned to eventually give away significant sums. Jacob Ma-Weaver said the U.S. aid cuts caused needless deaths and were shocking, but he also saw in the moment a chance to make a big difference.

“It was an opportunity for us and one that I think motivated us to accelerate our lifetime giving plans, which were very vague and amorphous, into something tangible that we could do right now,” he said.

The Ma-Weavers gave more than $1 million to projects selected by PRO and decided to speak publicly about their giving to encourage others to join them.

“It’s actually very uncomfortable in our society —maybe it shouldn’t be — to tell the world that you’re giving away money,” Jacob Ma-Weaver said. “There’s almost this embarrassment of riches about it, quite literally.”

Private donors could not support whole USAID programs

The funds that PRO mobilized did not backfill USAID’s grants dollar for dollar. Instead, PRO’s team worked with the implementing organizations to pare down their budgets to only the most essential parts of the most impactful projects.

For example, Helen Keller Intl ran multiple USAID-funded programs providing nutrition and treatment for neglected tropical diseases. All of those programs were eventually terminated, taking away almost a third of Helen Keller’s overall revenue.

Shawn Baker, an executive vice president at Helen Keller, said as soon as it became clear that the U.S. funding was not coming back, they started to triage their programming. When PRO contacted them, he said they were able to provide a much smaller budget for private funders. Instead of the $7 million annual budget for a nutrition program in Nigeria, they proposed $1.5 million to keep it running.

Another nonprofit, Village Enterprise, received $1.3 million through PRO to continue an antipoverty program in Rwanda that helps people start small businesses. But they were also able to raise $2 million from their own donors through a special fundraising appeal and drew on an unrestricted $7 million gift from billionaire and author MacKenzie Scott that they’d received in 2023. The flexible funding allowed them to sustain their most essential programming during what CEO Dianne Calvi called seven months of uncertainty.

That many organizations managed to hold on and keep programs running, even after significant funding cuts, was a surprise to the researchers at PRO. Since February, the small staff supporting PRO have extended their commitment to the project one month at a time, expecting that either donations would dry up or projects would no longer be viable.

“That time that we were able to buy has been absolutely invaluable in our ability to reach more people who are interested in stepping in,” said Rob Rosenbaum, the team lead at PRO and a former USAID employee. He said they have taken a lot of pride in mobilizing donors who have not previously given to these causes.

“To be able to convince somebody who might otherwise not spend this money at all or sit on it to move it into this field right now, that is the most important dollar that we can move,” he said.

Other donors may wait to see what is next

Dean Karlan, former USAID chief economist, poses at his home, Friday, Sept. 19, 2025, in Evanston, Ill. (AP Photo/Matt Marton)

Not all private donors were eager to jump into the chasm created by the U.S. foreign aid cuts, which happened without any “rhyme or reason,” said Dean Karlan, the chief economist at USAID when the Trump administration took over in January.

Despite the extraordinary mobilization of resources by some private funders, Karlan said, “You have to realize there’s also a fair amount of reluctance, rightly so, to clean up a mess that creates a moral hazard problem.”

The uncertainty about what the U.S. will fund going forward is likely to continue for some time. The emergency funds offered a short term response from interested private funders, many of whom are now trying to support the development of whatever comes next.

For Karlan, who is now a professor of economics at Northwestern University, it is painful to see the consequences of the aid cuts on recipient populations. He also resents the attacks on the motivations of aid workers in general.

Nonetheless, he said many in the field want to see the administration rebuild a system that is efficient and targeted. But Karlan said, he hasn’t yet seen any steps, “that give us a glimpse of how serious they’re going to be in terms of actually spending money effectively.”

Smaller donors also responded

Other emergency funds used a different approach than Project Resource Optimization to respond to frozen foreign assistance.
The group, Unlock Aid, which advocated for major reforms to the U.S. Agency for International Development before the cuts, l aunched their Foreign Aid Bridge Fund in mid-February and closed it at the end of April after raising $2 million from 400 donors and foundations. Their fund accepted applications while prioritizing frontline groups that had diverse revenue sources. They closed the fund after donations slowed and it became clear that the U.S. funding freeze would become a funding cut.
Two other groups, Founders Pledge and The Life You Can Save, launched a joint Rapid Response Fund that raised $13 million. Their fund did not accept applications but worked closely with PRO to fund some of the programs they had identified. PRO also directed smaller donors to give through the Rapid Response Fund, which had the infrastructure to take both small and large gifts. In all, 1,300 individuals gave to the Rapid Response Fund, the groups said.
Katrina Sill, the global health and development lead at Founders Pledge, said most of the 13 grants the fund made went to programs that benefit children.
“This is a time to not forget [that] a very small amount of money can make an enormous impact,” she said.

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Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of AP’s philanthropy coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/philanthropy.

The Dictatorship

Trump orders US military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz

Published

10 hours ago

April 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Trump orders US military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — President Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuzannouncing the move Thursday a day after Iran again displayed its ability to thwart traffic through the channel.

Trump also announced that a ceasefire in Lebanon would be extended by three weeks.

His post on social media about the small boats came shortly after the U.S. military seized another tanker associated with the smuggling of Iranian oil, ratcheting up a standoff with Tehran over the strait through which 20% of all crude oil and natural gas traded passed during peacetime.

“I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be … putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump posted, adding that U.S. minesweepers “are clearing the Strait right now.”

“I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level!” he added.

The decision to extend a pause in fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon came during a meeting at the White House between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States.

Meanwhile, it was still unclear when, or if, the U.S. and Iran would meet again in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, where mediators are trying to bring the countries together to reach a diplomatic deal ending that conflict.

Negotiations initially planned this week have not happened. Iran insists it will not attend until the U.S. ends its blockade on Iranian ports and ships. The White House insists it will not take part until Tehran opens the strait to international traffic.

Pope Leo XIVreturning home from a trip to Africa, urged the U.S. and Iran to return to talks to end the war.

Footage shows US forces on deck of tanker

The Defense Department released video footage of U.S. forces on the deck of the oil tanker Majestic X, which was seized in the Indian Ocean. The ship had been flying a Guyanese flag, though the South American nation of Guyana said it was not registered there

The footage emerged a day after Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard attacked three cargo ships in the strait, capturing two of them, in an assault that raised new concerns about the safety of shipping through the waterway.

The powerful head of Iran’s judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeisaid three “violating ships” in the strait were “subject to enforcement” Wednesday.

“The show of strength by the armed forces of Islamic Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is a source of pride,” he wrote Thursday on X, claiming the Americans “lack the courage” to approach the strait.

Ship-tracking data showed the Majestic X in the Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Indonesia, roughly the same location as the oil tanker Tifani, seized earlier by American forces. It had been bound for Zhoushan, China.

Majestic X previously was named Phonix and had been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2024 for smuggling Iranian crude oil in contravention of U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Guyana said in a statement the Majestic X was not registered in the South American nation.

“While the name of the vessel has changed, the (International Maritime Organization) number remains recorded in the international database as PHONIX. There is no record of this vessel or name in Guyana’s registry. Therefore, the ship is FRAUDULENTLY flying the Guyana flag,” Guyana’s Maritime Administration Department said.

There was no immediate response from Iran about the seizure.

Trump claims leadership rift in Iran

Trump this week extended a ceasefire to give the Iranian leadership more time to come up with a “unified proposal” on ending the war, while maintaining an American blockade of Iranian ports.

In a post Thursday, Trump claimed a leadership rift between moderates and hard-liners was confounding Iran. “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know!” Trump said.

Trump has repeatedly said during the ceasefire that began April 8 that his team is dealing with Iranian officials who want to make a deal, while acknowledging that his decision to kill several top leaders has come with complications.

Iran’s president and its parliament speaker posted statements on social media declaring the country has no hard-liners or moderates.

“We are all Iranians and revolutionaries,” they said.

A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Trump’s claim of a leadership rift was a “deflection.” Other Iranian officials said on social media that the country was united.

Trump, while speaking to reporters at the White House, pushed back against questions about the conflict exceeding the four-to-six-week timeline that he and aides previously set for the war.

“I don’t want to rush myself,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. “took the country out” militarily in the first four weeks.

“Now all we’re doing is sitting back and seeing what deal” can be made. “And if they don’t want to make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily,” Trump said.

He said he would not use a nuclear weapon against Iran.

Meanwhile, three aircraft carriers were in the region after the USS George H.W. Bush arrived in the Indian Ocean. One carrier was in the Arabian Sea and another was in the Red Sea, military officials said.

Talks between Lebanon and Israel lead to truce extension

Trump said a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington “went very well” and resulted in a ceasefire extension for Israel and the Hezbollah militant group.

“The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

The latest war between Israel and Hezbollah started after Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on Iran and the Tehran-backed militants fired rockets into northern Israel. The ceasefire first took effect for a 10-day period starting Friday.

Underscoring the truce’s fragility, Israel’s military said it struck missile launchers in Lebanon that had fired into its borders. Hezbollah said it fired at the Israeli town of Shtula in response to Israeli attacks on the Lebanese village of Yater.

Lebanon’s public health ministry said an Israeli airstrike killed three people further north, in the area of Nabatiya. The Israeli military said it killed three militants who launched a missile toward an Israeli warplane.

Each side has accused the other of breaching the truce.

Trump reiterated that the U.S. continues to demand that Iran stop it’s backing of Iranian-allied militias in the Mideast, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, as part of any deal between Washington and Tehran to end the U.S. war on Iran.

“Yeah, they’ll have to cut that,” Trump said to a reporter’s question about aiding Hezbollah. “That’s a must.”

Threats to shipping persist

Since the Feb. 28 start of the war between Iran, Israel and the United States, over 30 ships have come under attack in the waters of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.

The threat of attack, rising insurance premiums and other fears have stopped traffic from moving through the strait. Iran’s ability to restrict traffic through the strait, which leads from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, has proved a major strategic advantage.

Jakob Larsen, the head of maritime security for BIMCO, the largest international association representing shipowners, said in a note Thursday that most shipping companies need a stable ceasefire and assurances from both sides of the conflict that the strait is safe for transit.

The threat of mines, he wrote, was a “particular concern” if traffic might return to normal levels one day.

___

Madhani reported from Washington, and Keaten reported from Geneva.

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This story has corrected that the Majestic X oil tanker had been flying the Guyanese flag not the Guinea flag.

The Dictatorship

What The Kennedy Center’s Chief Showed Journalists To Prove The Building Really Does Need Renovation

Published

10 hours ago

April 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

What The Kennedy Center’s Chief Showed Journalists To Prove The Building Really Does Need Renovation

WASHINGTON (AP) — To President Donald Trumpthe Kennedy Center is a “tired, broken, and dilapidated” building in urgent need of repair. To artists like Jane Fonda and Billy Porterit’s a protest site symbolizing the administration’s effort to reshape the nation’s cultural institutions.

For the Kennedy Center’s new leadership, it’s a gargantuan structure corroded by water damage so severe that steel in some places is tissue-thin.

Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts' new executive director and chief operating officer, shows an expansion joint during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) — Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts’ new executive director and chief operating officer, shows an expansion joint during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Away from the political controversy that has consumed the iconic performing arts venue for the better part of Trump’s second term, Matt Floca, the Kennedy Center’s new executive director and chief operating officerguided a group of journalists through the building on Wednesday. They viewed the outdoor terrace overlooking the Potomac River, along with parking decks, loading docks, an electrical vault and the Opera House stage.

Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts' new executive director and chief operating officer, shows aged equipment in the river pump room during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) — Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts’ new executive director and chief operating officer, shows aged equipment in the river pump room during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

A theme emerged at virtually every stop: The water damage was real, apparent in some places through discoloration and pooling. Some pieces of equipment, including several 800-ton chillers that help cool the building, are decades old and in need of replacement.

And the building is so massive — sprawling across more than 1.5 million square feet — that repairs will require time to finish.

Two years of timein fact.

Trump plans to shutter the building for a massive renovation slated to begin in July, supported by nearly $257 million provided by Congress to fund repairs. The institution is expected to turn to private donors to help support refurbishing some of the building’s more exclusive areas, such as lounges.

The Kennedy Center is hardly the first fixture of the Washington skyline to undergo lengthy renovations. The Smithsonian Castle, one of the most recognizable buildings along the National Mall, has been closed for renovations since 2023. The Washington Monument was shrouded in scaffolding from 1998 to 2001 and covered again at points in 2013 and 2014 to repair earthquake damage.

None of those changes, however, were guided so closely by a sitting president.

The president is hands-on with this renovation

Trump, who is also trying to build a ballroom on the grounds of the former East Wing of the White House and is pushing for the construction of a triumphal arch near Arlington Cemetery, is deeply involved in the Kennedy Center plans. That’s in line with the far more hands-on approach he’s taken to the institution during his second term, ousting its previous leadership and replacing it with a handpicked board that named him chairman.

His name is now bolted to the building’s facade along with that of John F. Kennedy, the slain president that the venue memorializes.

The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts is seen following a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

“It’s a public building, and I completely acknowledge that, but the president is really great at this, and I think his input is invaluable,” Floca said. “He’s in the details, and it’s amazing. I really respect the input he’s given.”

As Trump tightened his grip on the building, artists abandoned the institution in droves, prompting concern that the closure is more of an effort to cover for plunging sales. The Kennedy Center hasn’t released sales figures.

Floca considered doing the repairs individually but insisted it was his recommendation to Trump to close the building and move forward with the renovation all at once.

“When the President asked: ‘How do you make these projects the best? How do you make them really excellent and deliver them efficiently?’ my recommendation was you close the building and you do everything over a definite period of time, two years,” he said.

He acknowledged that once the building is closed, staffing will be “pretty bare bones.”

“We’re working on all of those plans now and exactly what those numbers will be after July,” he said. “And we will staff up before reopening.”

Still, the tour offered the institution something of a reset opportunity after more than a year of tumult, demonstrating the need for repairs while easing some fears. A bipartisan group of lawmakers and their staff, along with representatives for Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser and some corporate and individual donors, have received a similar walk-through.

There will be scaffolding around the building but the construction won’t be so dramatic that someone could see through the building. That’s notable considering Trump has suggested the steel supporting the structure could be “ fully exposed.”

It’s not entirely clear how much change will be apparent to the general public once the Kennedy Center reopens. Much of the structural repair, which will unfold during the renovation’s first year, will happen in the building’s private core.

The venue’s more public elements, including the red-on-red decor of the Opera House, are expected to be maintained, though with some updating. There aren’t plans at the moment to change the presidential boxes.

The Opera House seats are seen at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Quotes attributed to Kennedy will stay on the building’s walls and the famous bust of the former president that sits outside the Opera House will be there again when the building reopens.

“I can’t think of any JFK changes,” Floca said.

An eight foot tall bronze bust of President John F. Kennedy is seen in the Grand Foyer of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts during a media tour to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

It’s unclear, however, whether there will be additional tributes to Trump, who will be in the final months of his presidency when the public can return to the building.

The Dictatorship

Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son

Published

10 hours ago

April 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son

NEW YORK (AP) — Will President Donald Trump send troops into Iran? Will he rename the Strait of Hormuz after himself? Will he post again praising Allah?

No one knows the answers, but online betting companies that allow people to wager on Trump policies and statements are profiting — including some backed by his oldest son.

Prediction markets love the president’s unpredictability, his need to keep people guessing about his next move or social media post, leading to more wagers in these betting venues and more fees for them. That includes Polymarket, a company Donald Trump Jr. has a stake in, and Kalshi, a company he advises.

These sites have to come up with new betting lines on current events everyday, and Trump Jr.’s famously fickle father has proven to be a rich source of will-he-or-won’t-he questions.

When a wagering event on Polymarket asked whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran, nearly 100,000 bets were placed on April 8, leading to the biggest trading day of the year up to then.

And Trump’s policies and social media comments generate bets beyond the war-related ones: Who will Trump back to run Venezuela? Will his insults of Pope Leo XIV continue? Will he seize Greenland?

“Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible,” said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who has studied Polymarket. “He’s so unpredictable.”

Sports wagers make up the largest portion of the volume on prediction markets, but politics runs a close second, according to crypto analysis firm Dune.

People are also betting “Yes” or “No” on all kinds of other things — the price of gold, the winner of “Survivor,” even the weather. The cost of the wager, in cents per dollar, reflects the number of people making the same bet, with a price of 49 cents for “Yes,” for instance, reflecting 49% odds.

The betting has drawn bipartisan criticism for inviting insider trading but the president seems to be a big fan, applying a light regulatory touch and helping the industry expand. His family company, the Trump Organization, is even working on opening its own prediction market, called Truth Predict.

One of the biggest fee generators lately has been Trump’s approach to the Iran war, notably his Truth Social post on April 5 demanding the country “Open the F—- Strait.”

Trading on Polymarket soared with “Yes” or “No” wagers on whether an invasion was imminent, according to Dune, only to be surpassed on April 7 by betting on another question — Will there be a ceasefire? — when Trump posted ominously that a “whole civilization will die tonight.”

In total, 413 million bets on the Iran war were made risking more than $100 million from Sunday, April 5, through Wednesday, April 8, the day after Trump announced a ceasefire, according to Dune.

In a report after the surge, Dune called Trump an “unpredictability machine” and marveled at how his “governing-by-tweet” style sends trading volumes soaring.

Asked whether the president’s son should be profiting from a business benefitting from his father’s actions, a Trump Jr. spokesman called the question “fact-free Democratic propaganda.”

“Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets,” said the spokesman, Andrew Surabian.

Polymarket didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The betting venues have jumped in popularity since Trump was reelected in November 2024 in part because they correctly predicted, unlike many pundits, that he would win decisively.

Since then the Trump administration has sued states trying to ban prediction markets under no-gambling laws. The head of the industry’s chief regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has even promoted the business publicly, calling the online bets in a Wall Street Journal op-ed “exciting products.”

Benefiting particularly has been Polymarket, which was banned from operating anywhere in the U.S. in 2022 after the Biden administration fined it for running an unregistered exchange. It recently got permission to return, and its value has soared.

The company is now worth $9.6 billion, according to research firm PitchBook, a nearly tenfold increase in eight months since a venture capital fund in which Trump Jr. is a partner last invested.

Just how much Trump Jr. is benefiting from the increase in value is unclear because Polymarket is private and doesn’t release ownership stakes. Kalshi, which took on Trump Jr. as an adviser last year, is also private.

As for profiting off turmoil and war, Trump Jr. has other possible ways besides the prediction markets.

Through his venture capital fund he also owns pieces of aerospace, defense and technology companies seeking Pentagon contracts and other federal agency dollars. Separately, he and his brother, Eric, just struck a deal giving them stakes in a military drone maker not just selling to the U.S. forces but also pitching to Gulf countries under Iranian attack and beholden to their father for U.S. military protection in a war he started.

Asked last month about the drone company potentially profiting off his father’s position as president, Eric Trump sent The Associated Press a statement saying, “I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in.”

Critics in Congress, virtually all Democrats, have decried what they believe is blatant profiting off the presidency, and are waiting for the midterms to do something about it, possibly voting for impeachment.

But whether that happens is anyone’s guess — or to be more specific, tens of thousands of guesses.

In Polymarket trading, those betting that Trump would get impeached by the end of his term were putting the chances at 13% at the start of the year. But that has changed dramatically after his “civilization wipe out” threat and calls from Democrats to oust him from office.

By Tuesday, the odds had jumped to 66%.

——

AP reporters Ken Sweet in New York and Christopher Keller in Albuquerque, N.M., contributed to this story.