Congress
Johnson’s next margin headache: Manchin-style Republicans
Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats’ priorities under President Joe Biden.
Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?
- Frustrated conservatives: There are scores of examples just this Congress of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn’t align with their ideology, didn’t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee — Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year.
- SALT-y big staters: Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They’ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including
Mike Lawler of New York,Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey andYoung Kim of California.
- Higher office aspirants: Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson’s stable of votes if they’re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.
- The actuarial caucus: Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans:
Hal Rogers of Kentucky,John Carter of Texas andVirginia Foxx of North Carolina.
When will we know what Johnson has to work with? After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California’s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump’s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.
Congress
Fetterman says Democrats were ‘horribly wrong’ to try eliminating Senate filibuster
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is backpedaling on his previous calls to eliminate the filibuster in the Senate — which is a critical bulwark against “a fill-in-the-blank government with new laws, deregulation or procedures of its choosing,” he wrote in a Washington Post op-ed published Monday.
“A Senate without the filibuster [would become] a Senate that ignored the voices of the minority and everyday people,” he wrote, elaborating on previous comments. Last month, he told Katie Miller that Democrats were “so wrong” about opposing the filibuster.
“We cannot become a smaller version of the House of Representatives,” he wrote in his op-ed.
In 2022, Fetterman campaigned to abolish the filibuster, a 60-vote rule that effectively requires a supermajority to pass most legislation. His argument on the trail — which remains on his campaign website as of Monday afternoon — was that the rule stood “in the way of getting things done for Pennsylvanians.”
At that time, many Senate Democrats and activists argued the same publicly, as the party attempted to pass a sweeping overhaul of elections that Democrats said would better protect voting rights. But two then-Democratic senators, Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) — protested against throwing out the rule, saying it would hurt the party’s priorities in the long run.
Ultimately the filibuster survived and Democrats did not pass their voting rights bill, with much of the party base heaping scorn on Manchin and Sinema.
Now, with Republicans holding a government trifecta, the power dynamic has flipped.
President Donald Trump is now urging Republican senators to kill the filibuster, which has stalled passage of the SAVE America Act. He turned the screws on Majority Leader John Thune on Monday, demanding that Thune keep the Senate in session until the GOP-backed elections bill passes.
“John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to ‘leave town’ until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER, where Republicans can then quickly pass everything they ever dreamed of,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
The filibuster has been a block against GOP-championed causes, Fetterman argued: “We could have extreme policies such as nationwide abortion restrictions, backpedaling on LGBT rights, repeal of birthright citizenship and limited voting rights across the country. … Republicans could fundamentally change the entire government and country with a simple majority vote.”
With the midterms approaching, Democrats face a tight battle to win back the Senate. The next time they have a trifecta, the filibuster will — once again — be a thorn in the party’s side, complicating the passage of key priorities.
Democrats “will once again have to find common ground with our Republican colleagues,” Fetterman said. “We will need to abandon our worst impulses as a party and work together to find solutions to the problems Americans face.”
Congress
McConnell to remain in rehab, will skip Fancy Farm picnic in Kentucky
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced Monday that he will remain in rehab as he continues to recover from a June fall that left him briefly unconscious.
In a statement, McConnell shared that he is “working hard” to return to a full schedule but remains in “intense physical therapy.”
The Office of the Attending Physician (OAP) confirmed that medical staff visit the senator daily to discuss “all aspects of his rehabilitation care” but added he is “not yet medically cleared to leave the rehab facility and return to office.”
“Since his discharge from hospital care, he has maintained a strenuous course of physical therapy and rehabilitation, including multiple sessions a day designed to rebuild strength and reduce the risk of future falls,” the OAP said. “His bout with childhood polio continues to be a significant factor in his mobility.”
McConnell, 84, was rushed to the hospital on June 14 following the fall and what he described as a “mild case of pneumonia.” In a letter to constituents earlier this month, he said that while he was briefly knocked unconscious, he did not suffer any broken bones, a stroke or a heart attack. It is unclear when McConnell was discharged.
But his continued rehab stay means McConnell will miss Kentucky’s premier political event: the annual Fancy Farm Picnic.
“There’s no place I’d rather be on the first Saturday in August than with the good people of western Kentucky, feasting on pork and mutton,” McConnell said Monday. “I hate that I’ll miss the fun this year, but I’m sending my best wishes to the St. Jerome community for a successful picnic.”
McConnell, who is retiring when his current term concludes in January, has faced a series of health challenges in recent years. In 2023, he froze twice while speaking to reporters. He has also experienced several other falls and, at one point, used a wheelchair as what his office called a precautionary measure.
Congress
Trump tells Thune to keep Senate in session to pass SAVE America Act
President Donald Trump ramped up pressure Monday on Majority Leader John Thune, telling him to keep the Senate in session until a GOP election bill passes.
“John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to ‘leave town’ until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER, where Republicans can then quickly pass everything they ever dreamed of,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Monday.
Democrats, he added, will nix the filibuster themselves when they regain power “and can’t believe how lucky they got with this Senate leadership. Remember, stupidity always brings LOSING & DEATH!”
Trump’s Truth Social post comes after he urged supporters last week to call Thune about the SAVE America Act, then said Friday that he wanted Senate Republicans to adopt a blueprint for a $95 billion party-line spending bill, which would include some election-related funding, before they leave town for the August recess as planned on Aug. 6.
Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said over the weekend that they believed the Senate should stay in town until the election bill is passed. Lee has previously called for the Senate to stay in session through prior recesses to pass the SAVE America Act but has not forced the issue on the floor.
Despite Trump’s pressure campaign, the elections bill doesn’t have the votes to pass the Senate and there isn’t enough support within the Senate Republican conference for nixing the filibuster, which requires 60 votes for most legislation to advance.
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