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Johnson’s next margin headache: Manchin-style Republicans

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Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats’ priorities under President Joe Biden.

Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?

  • Frustrated conservatives: There are scores of examples just this Congress of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn’t align with their ideology, didn’t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee — Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year. 
  • SALT-y big staters: Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They’ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including Mike Lawler of New York, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey and Young Kim of California.
  • Higher office aspirants: Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson’s stable of votes if they’re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.
  • The actuarial caucus: Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans: Hal Rogers of Kentucky, John Carter of Texas and Virginia Foxx of North Carolina.

When will we know what Johnson has to work with? After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California’s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump’s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.

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Congress

White House declares $4.9B in foreign aid unilaterally canceled in end-run around Congress’ funding power

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The White House budget office said Friday morning that President Donald Trump has canceled $4.9 billion in foreign aid by using a so-called pocket rescission — furthering the administration’s assault on Congress’ funding prerogatives.

The move raises tensions on Capitol Hill as lawmakers face an Oct. 1 deadline to avoid a government shutdown. Many lawmakers from both parties, as well as Congress’ top watchdog, view the maneuver as an illegal end-run around their “power of the purse.”

The Trump administration boldly embraced the strategy on Friday. “Congress can choose to vote to rescind or continue the funds — it doesn’t matter,” an official from the White House budget office said in a statement. “This approach is rare but not unprecedented.”

The White House is allowed to send Congress a clawbacks request and then withhold the cash for 45 days while lawmakers consider whether to approve, reject or ignore the proposal. Because there are less than 45 days left before the end of the fiscal year, Trump’s top budget officials — led by budget chief Russ Vought — argue that they can employ the so-called pocket rescission to withhold the funding until it lapses at month’s end, ensuring its cancellation regardless of what Congress decides.

The pocket rescission request was first reported by the New York Post.

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

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Bondi, Patel to testify before Congress amid Epstein fallout

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Two top Justice Department officials are expected to testify before the House Judiciary Committee in the coming weeks amid fallout over the administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, according to two people granted anonymity to share scheduling information not yet public.

FBI director Kash Patel is set to give testimony Sept. 17, with attorney general Pam Bondi on tap to appear Oct. 9. Both have been invited as part of the Judiciary Committee’s general oversight work, and each will have an opportunity to outline some of the pieces of a crime bill President Donald Trump wants Hill Republicans to produce in the coming months.

But the hearings will likely focus most heavily on how the DOJ has maneuvered around the release of files related to the late, convicted sex offender.

Senior Republicans have continued over the August recess to press the Trump administration to unseal more Epstein documents after a mutiny over their release caused chaos in the GOP-controlled House, running the chamber aground before lawmakers left town early in late July.

DOJ started transmitting some of the so-called Epstein files last week in compliance with a subpoena from the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. And Alex Acosta, President Donald Trump’s former labor secretary who singed off on Epstein’s previous plea deal as a then-U.S. attorney in Florida, will separately sit for a transcribed interview with the Oversight panel Sept. 19.

However, lawmakers otherwise have so far received scant new information during the month-long district work period, with members of both parties promising to continue to press the issue when the House is set to return to session next week.

Bondi has, in particular, been the subject of Republican consternation over allegedly withholding documents she at one point promised to reveal.

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Mark Teixeira, former MLB All Star, kicks off Texas House campaign

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Baseball star Mark Teixeira launched a campaign to fill an open Texas House seat Thursday, the latest celebrity athlete to dive into politics.

Teixeira is running as a Republican in a safe red seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Chip Roy. And he’s already appealing to President Donald Trump in search of a home run on the campaign trail.

“As a lifelong conservative who loves this country, I’m running for Congress to fight for the principles that make Texas and America great,” he wrote in a post on X. “It takes teamwork to win — I’m ready to help defend President Trump’s America First agenda, Texas families, and individual liberty.”

Teixeira was a superstar on the diamond, going yard 409 times in a career that spanned 14 seasons and saw him play for four big league outfits, including the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. He last played in the 2016 season.

He reached baseball immortality when the Yankees won the World Series in 2009. He was included on the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot but failed to get enough votes from sportswriters to either get elected to the Hall or return to the ballot in future years.

Should he win the seat, he could be a major boon for Republicans in the Congressional Baseball Game, the annual charity event that pits Democrats against Republicans. The GOP has dominated the game in recent years, a gap that a former major leaguer would likely only widen.

Teixeira is leaning into his baseball bona fides.

“In Congress, he’ll bring the same grit, preparation, and competitive spirit that made him a champion in Major League Baseball to fight for Texas—and win,” reads his campaign website.

Roy, a Freedom Caucus member who has served in the House since 2019, is leaving Congress to run for the Texas attorney general post.

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