Congress
Johnson’s next margin headache: Manchin-style Republicans
Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats’ priorities under President Joe Biden.
Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?
- Frustrated conservatives: There are scores of examples just this Congress of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn’t align with their ideology, didn’t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee — Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year.
- SALT-y big staters: Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They’ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including
Mike Lawler of New York,Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey andYoung Kim of California.
- Higher office aspirants: Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson’s stable of votes if they’re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.
- The actuarial caucus: Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans:
Hal Rogers of Kentucky,John Carter of Texas andVirginia Foxx of North Carolina.
When will we know what Johnson has to work with? After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California’s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump’s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.
Congress
Top House GOP super PAC taps new president
Chris Winkelman, the top staffer at the House Republican campaign arm, will be the new president of the Congressional Leadership Fund.
Winkelman will replace Dan Conston, who has led the super PAC for six years and announced Monday he will be stepping down. CLF, the largest House GOP super PAC, is endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson.
As its leader, Winkelman will court major party donors and direct hundreds of millions of dollars in ad spending to help Republicans grow their narrow majority. He spent three cycles as general counsel for the National Republican Congressional Committee before taking over as its executive director in 2023.
His tenure at the NRCC has given him strong relationships with members and the chairman, Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.). And he is known to be close with Johnson, who assumed the speakership in late 2023.
“Chris Winkelman helped lead the fight to defend Republicans’ House majority at the NRCC and will be a strong force leading the Congressional Leadership Fund to build on those efforts in the next election cycle,” Johnson said in a statement.
Winkelman is an expert on campaign and finance law, including the intersection of party committees, super PACs, nonprofits and candidates’ campaigns.
He was heavily involved in courting donors at the NRCC, but leading the top super PAC will require a different kind of fundraising. CLF and its sister nonprofit, American Action Network, can accept much larger checks from donors. Conston had close ties to the massive GOP donor network, which he developed over his term.
“Chris will be a fantastic leader who will take what’s been built and grow CLF to even greater levels,” Conston said, praising his “sharp political acumen and legal mind.”
Winkelman is known for keeping a lower media profile and working quietly behind the scenes. Republicans maintained their House majority this year despite having a tough map, forced to defend more than a dozen incumbents in districts that Joe Biden won.
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Congress
Democrat Adam Gray flips California swing seat blue
Democrat Adam Gray has flipped one of his party’s highest-priority seats in California’s Central Valley, booting Republican Rep. John Duarte from office in the last House race in the country to be called.
Gray, a former state legislator, previously lost to Duarte in 2022 by a margin of 564 votes. This year, his party managed to turn out enough supporters to deal a major blow to the GOP.
Duarte told Blue Light News on Tuesday that he had conceded the race.
Democratic flips of seats held by California GOP Reps. Duarte, Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel have cut into Republicans’ narrow House majority, as will — for the near term — the expected GOP departures of Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. For the time being, Republicans hold 220 seats and Democrats 215.
Democrats poured millions into flipping key swing regions like the Central Valley, far outspending Republican incumbents like Duarte.
Mia McCarthy contributed to this story.
Congress
AOC may run for Oversight job
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is weighing a bid for the top Democratic position on the Oversight Committee, she told reporters Tuesday.
“I’m interested,” she said in comments confirmed by a spokesperson.
The outspoken progressive could run for the spot if it’s vacated by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who’s mounting a challenge against Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) for the top Democratic position on the Judiciary Committee. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who had run against Raskin for the job last Congress, declared his bid Tuesday. And Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) could also be in the mix.
It’s the latest salvo in House Democrats’ generational battle over the leadership of congressional committees.
Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), the top Democrat on the Agriculture committee — who has been dogged by questions about his health and ability to lead the panel’s Democrats — faces a strong challenge from Reps. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.). And Rep. Jared Huffman is running to succeed Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who announced Monday he wouldn’t run again to lead the panel’s Democrats.
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