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State of Congress: House looks to California (and Trump)

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The breakdown of the Senate is all but set. And a handful of races in California — and President-elect Donald Trump’s personnel decisions — seem likely to determine how much wiggle room Republicans will have in their probable House majority.

Arizona Senate: Almost a week after the election, the Associated Press called the open Senate race for Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego over GOP nominee Kari Lake. His lead at the time of the call stands at about 72,000 votes. It’s a crucial win for Democrats, who will now have a minority conference of 47 seats in the Senate.

Pennsylvania Senate: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) chipped away at GOP Sen.-elect David McCormick’s lead, but the Democrat still trails by 35,000 votes after more ballots came in on Monday. The Casey campaign isn’t conceding until the counting wraps, but he faces long odds to erase McCormick’s advantage. The AP called the race for the Republican several days ago. “Ruben Gallego and David McCormick have been invited to attend orientation,” a spokesperson for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday morning.

Battle for the House: Republicans have secured 214 called seats by the Associated Press — and currently lead in races that would give them 222 seats. Some of those may not hold, though. Here’s an overview of some of the most competitive seats:

  • California 27th: Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said in a statement Monday night that he had conceded to Democrat George Whitesides, ensuring a flip of a GOP-held seat. Ballot drops have consistently broken in the Democrat’s favor as the process continues. 
  • California 47th: Democrat Dave Min expanded his lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh to more than 3,200 votes — or more than one percentage point — for this open seat. An estimated 82 percent of votes have now been counted. 
  • California 13th: Democrat Adam Gray continues to chip into Rep. John Duarte’s (R) lead in this contest, which appears likely to come down to the wire. The incumbent currently leads by just under 3,000 votes with 62 percent of ballots counted. 
  • California 45th: A set of ballots dropped on Monday from Orange County broke heavily for Democrat Derek Tran, dropping Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) lead to 3,908 votes. There are an estimated 16 percent of ballots still outstanding in the contest, so this one is likely to be a nail biter. 
  • California 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R) declared victory on Monday as his lead over Democrat Will Rollins stood at more than 7,500 votes. Rollins isn’t conceding yet, though it seems he’d need everything to break his way to overcome Calvert’s lead. 
  • California 22nd: Incumbent Rep. David Valadao’s (R) lead stands at just under 10,000 votes with an estimated 77 percent of ballots counted in this contest against Democrat Rudy Salas. 
  • Arizona 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) lead swelled to nearly 5,000 votes over Democrat Kirsten Engel as more votes are tallied in this swing Arizona district. The AP has not formally called the contest, but this looks like a sure GOP hold. 
  • Alaska at-large: Observers are still waiting for ballots from rural Alaska to be tallied, but incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) faces long odds to make up a 10,000 vote gap with GOP challenger Nick Begich. One thing to watch: If Begich doesn’t get to 50 percent, the state’s ranked-choice voting system kicks in. 

One other thing to watch: Maine officials will run the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures Tuesday at 1 p.m. (watch on YouTube, if you’re into that). Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) leads his GOP challenger Austin Theriault by more than 2,000 votes but came up short of an outright majority, triggering the ranked-choice voting system.

Things could get interesting fast for the GOP majority: Two House Republicans — Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — have already been tapped by Trump for senior roles, opening up special elections for their seats. Waltz’s role doesn’t even require Senate confirmation, so he’ll vacate his seat immediately.

Called races by the AP Monday afternoon: Rep.-elect Cleo Fields (D-La.); Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.)

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Congress

House Ethics will forge ahead with Cherfilus-McCormick trial

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The House Ethics Committee will go forward with its plans to hold a rare public trial next week for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.

The beleaguered Florida Democrat faces allegations that she stole millions in FEMA funding and is also in the midst of a federal criminal case on the charges. She had previously asked to pause the proceedings before the Ethics Committee pending the matter in federal court, and the panel already postponed its scheduled hearing once after a Cherfilus-McCormick said she lost her legal representation.

But the bipartisan Ethics Committee announced Wednesday that the adjudicatory subcommittee handling Cherfilus-McCormick’s case had ultimately voted to reject the latest delay request. It also rejected a motion to hold the hearing “in executive session,” as opposed to the public hearing.

“The matter of Representative Cherfilus-McCormick has been before the Committee since September 2023,” said the statement from House Ethics Committee leadership. “Further delay of the matter would not serve the interests of justice.

“Moreover,” the statement continued, “holding the entire hearing in executive session at this phase of the proceedings would depart from Committee precedent, limit public transparency around these serious allegations, and do nothing to safeguard the House’s integrity.”

The hearing will begin at 2 p.m. March 26.

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House rejects effort to force a balanced budget in the US

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Lawmakers rejected legislation Wednesday to compel the United States to maintain a balanced budget, a perennial pursuit of fiscal conservatives that stood little chance of becoming the law of the land.

The House voted 211-207 against the resolution that would have launched an effort to amend the U.S. Constitution to bar the federal government from running a deficit. It needed to clear each chamber of Congress by a two-thirds vote, then be ratified by three-fourths of all the states.

But the measure’s consideration had major symbolic meaning for budget hawks like its sponsor, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).

“Many of us have been agitating for years to do a balanced budget amendment and out of the blue, they said, ‘we’re ready to do it,’” Biggs said in an interview Tuesday, referring to House GOP leaders.

“They didn’t ask me to do anything, didn’t offer anything,” he said of whether leaders scheduled the vote in an effort to court Biggs, who has in the past threatened to tank spending bills for where he hasn’t liked the price tag. “Just out of the blue, I got a call.”

A spokesperson for Speaker Mike Johnson did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the timing of the measure’s consideration.

Various balanced budget amendment proposals have been offered more than a hundred times since 1999, but peaked in the 1970s and 1980s. The Pew Research Center found that balancing the budget is the single most popular subject of constitutional amendment proposals since 1999, according to analysis of legislative data from the Library of Congress.

Biggs’ latest resolution stated that “total expenditures for a year shall not exceed the average annual receipts collected in the three prior years,” adjusted for inflation and changes in the population.

It would have made an exception for war, where “specific expenditures in excess of the limit” can be approved by Congress “for any year in which a declaration of war is in effect.” Modern wars after World War II have largely been funded by debt; none of them, including the decades-long Global War on Terror, were never backed up by an official declaration of war.

The Biggs measure also would have instituted a two-thirds majority vote threshold in both chambers as necessary to approve any new tax or increase the tax rate. The GOP megabill passed last summer, which included significant tax cuts, passed the Senate in a simple majority vote through the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process.

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Kiley switches parties, loses committees

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Rep. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who recently registered as an Independent, said in an interview Wednesday he plans to caucus with the House GOP and will seek to regain his committee assignments.

The California lawmaker was formally removed from his panels Wednesday after giving official notice he was switching parties to serve as an Independent and run in a new district after his state redrew congressional maps.

The House GOP Steering Committee will need to approve Kiley’s effort to take back his seats on Education and the Workforce, Transportation and Infrastructure and Judiciary. Kiley told reporters this was “completely expected” and that he looked “forward to being reappointed as an Independent.”

Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.

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