The Dictatorship

The GOP whispers about JD Vance are getting louder

Published

1 month ago

May 4, 2026

May. 4, 2026, 6:00 AM EDT

“JD Vance sucks.” I’ve heard that sentiment from Democrats ever since Donald Trump chose the junior senator from Ohio as his running mate in 2024. And it is not surprising that Democrats still hold that judgment. What is surprising is that I now quietly hear the same sentiment coming from some MAGA and conservative circles.

To be clear, the vice president is so far ahead in polling for the GOP nomination in 2028 that the next most popular candidate, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has publicly deferred his own possible run to Vance. If you ask the MAGA base, they will tell you without hesitating that Vance will be the 2028 nominee. Many MAGA voters are more interested in whom the current vice president will pick as his vice president than in hearing from any other prospective candidates for 2028.

But the quiet talk in Washington is much different and growing louder. Even Trump is reportedly asking friends and advisers about who would be better – Vance or Rubio. That question alone is a telling admission about the president’s thoughts about his own vice president.

Even some leading Republican and MAGA activists do not have close relationships with the vice president.

Just the other day Politico reported that “some of President Donald Trump’s closest confidantes increasingly see Marco Rubio as a serious 2028 contender.” Semafor subsequently published a story titled “Why it’s still JD Vance” – a headline that some people in Washington viewed as acknowledging the doubts and alarms.

There is griping, from prominent conservatives in Washington and state-based activists, that Vance is not effectively using his current perch at the Naval Observatory to his advantage. They bemoan that he should be hosting grassroots leaders across the country and keeping Trump’s winning MAGA coalition together. Even some leading Republican and MAGA activists do not have close relationships with the vice president. Some say that when you call the White House, Trump calls you back. When you call Vance’s office, however, it takes a while to get a response, if you get one at all.

When Trump chose Vance as his running mate, he was distinctly MAGA – a gift from the base to the base and the next standard bearer of the president’s new coalition. But while he may now be better known, his core political identity is not. In 2016 he questioned if Trump could be “America’s Hitler” and then in 2022 had a “a road to Damascus” political conversion to MAGA. As a political journeyman, no one truly knows what beliefs he genuinely holds absent Trump telling him.

In recent years the most prominent role of the vice president has been in breaking ties in a gridlocked Senate, rather than any governing portfolio – and the same is true for Vance (aside from his new title of “fraud czar”). As the first in succession, it is incredibly hard to demonstrate leadership as vice president when your sole job is to follow the president.

Vance has certainly made a name for himself on social media posting pithy and sometimes even nasty responses. But his online persona seems to have carried through to real life. Where some of the president’s opponents recognize that at times Trump can be charming, even funny, the vice president seems to have one note, and it is flat. If the public wonders what is it like having a beer with Vance, you can bet it is sour.

In January, at a White House press conference, Vance denounced and denigrated Renee Good a day after her death in Minnesota. Trump, by contrast, seemed to read the national sentiment – noting that Good was a “very, solid wonderful person” even as he criticized her protesting. There is concern that Vance may only appeal to people who think Trump is just not abrasive enough.

It appears that no one is eager to enter their Cadillac in the demolition derby that is the 2028 Republican primary.

Furthermore, while Sen. Bernie Sanders, at 84 years old, continues to pop up at rallies and events across the country, Vance is rarely seen on the campaign trail. Since the start of the war with Iran and at a time of heightened national security, he seems satisfied with a lower profile. Aside from his hourslong meeting with the Iranians, he has largely left engaging with the public about the war to Trump, Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

While Vance’s political sutures continue to fuse, Rubio has seemingly forged the gap between establishment and MAGA. With several campaigns under his belt, from his original Tea Party win to his failed 2016 presidential run, Rubio has deep ties to the party, its donors, its grassroots and most importantly looks incredibly “likeable” next to Vance. The Rubio whisper is now becoming a wish with some who want to keep the White House in 2028.

Expect the jockeying to continue – but only behind the scenes. It appears that no one is eager to enter their Cadillac in the demolition derby that is the 2028 Republican primary. While many potential Democratic candidates are blanketing the early states, not one potential GOP name has set foot in New Hampshire, the most likely site of the first Republican primary. Governors like Georgia’s Brian Kemp and Florida’s Ron DeSantis and senators like Texas’ Ted Cruz and Missouri’s Josh Hawley have long had an eye on the Oval Office. Yet none are trying to get a head start. There are no signs any of them are formulating a presidential campaign, much less crafting one that would continue or differ from the MAGA movement – which continues to be the most dominant force in Republican politics.

In some ways, this is no surprise. Running for president and losing used to only have upsides: a bigger profile for a future run, a Cabinet post or at least regular appearances on a conservative media outlet. But in the Trump years, MAGA frequently has been unforgiving toward the president’s primary foes. As soon as a candidate shows any daylight with the president, on tariffs, war or any other issue, Trump can swoop in and eviscerate that person on social media, damning them in the party and destroying a carefully crafted political brand that took years to create. For many GOP hopefuls, even with Trump’s approval ratings hitting historic lows, “no risk, no reward” has become “no risk, no damage incurred.”

And while it is likely that Trump wants a wide-open primary where he gets to resume his “Apprentice” persona and judge a big 2028 primary field, the reality of the race may be decided if Trump tells Vance to step aside for Rubio. If that happens, not only will the MAGA base polling change overnight, but it will be virtually impossible for anyone else to mount a serious run for the nomination. In the end, for the Republican party and the MAGA faithful, the traditional 50-state nomination process may be replaced with an Oval Office coronation.

Matthew Bartlett is an MS NOW political analyst. He served as a Trump appointee at the State Department in the first administration.

The Dictatorship

Court denies request to immediately block DOJ ‘slush fund’

Published

9 hours ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Court denies request to immediately block DOJ ‘slush fund’

Jun. 10, 2026, 6:14 PM EDT

A federal judge in Washington has denied a bid Wednesday brought by a watchdog group to immediately block the Justice Department’s “anti-weaponization” fund, for now choosing to trust the department’s assertions that it is not moving forward with the fund.

U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled immediately, denying Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington’s request for a temporary restraining order that would have blocked the Department of Justice from taking steps to create the fund.

Throughout the 30-minute hearing, the DOJ reiterated that the administration was not moving forward with the nearly $1.8 billion fund, which seeks to compensate individuals who allege they have been politically targeted or victimized by the DOJ.

Andrew Block, the only lawyer present for the government, repeatedly cited Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s June 2 congressional testimonyin which he said the administration was “not moving forward” with plans to create the fund.

Leon indicated he agreed with the DOJ’s position that the case appeared to be moot, saying he was not persuaded there was an issue for the court to decide regarding the creation of the fund. He issued a stern warning to the DOJ, saying, “Don’t play possum with this court!” — meaning he does not want to be deceived.

The plaintiffs argued Blanche’s testimony did not amount to an official cancellation. Nikhel Sus, CREW’s attorney, said Blanche “refused to memorialize that rescission,” or in other words, put it in writing. Sus said that was “highly unusual.” Leon responded, “This whole case is highly unusual to say the least.”

Leon asked the government twice why they would not just rescind the order that established the fund. Block responded, “I don’t know,” and pointed again to Blanche’s public statements about the fund’s future.

Both Leon and Sus raised the issue of Trump’s continued public defense of the fund. “It can still be an important issue and also not moving forward,” Block said. “That isn’t a direction to move forward with the fund.”

Although Leon rejected CREW’s bid for an immediate block, he indicated he is still considering its request for a longer-term block against the fund.

A block order from a separate federal judge in Virginia remains in effect until at least Friday.

Fallon Gallagher is a legal affairs reporter for MS NOW.

The Dictatorship

Trump is accelerating our Social Security insolvency crisis

Published

9 hours ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Jun. 10, 2026, 5:50 PM EDT

The date when Social Security’s trust fund is expected to run out of money just got bumped up. The fund is now projected to empty in 2032according to a new report released by Social Security’s trustees.

The new depletion date isn’t an earth-shaking change — it’s only a quarter earlier than the estimate in last year’s report. But it illustrates how President Donald Trump’s policies are degrading a program he promised to never jeopardize — and accelerating an approaching crisis in how our government will assist the elderly and disabled.

The report names three factors that contributed to the earlier insolvency date. One is a declining fertility rate, but the other two drivers can be traced back to Trump: a drop in immigration into the country, and the “substantial effect” of the tax policies in the One Big Beautiful Bill he signed last summer.

Trump’s acceleration of the program’s insolvency comes atop his assaults on the program’s administrative capacities.

Reduced immigration during Trump’s second term — especially when coupled with a declining fertility rate — strains Social Security because the program is funded through payroll taxes. Those come out of people’s paychecks, and fewer workers supporting an aging population means the program receives less revenue. Indeed, Social Security already has been tapping its trust fund for the better part of the past two decades because the program’s costs have exceeded its cash income. And as the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities pointed out last yearlast year’s tax cuts were a boon to the rich but a bust for the solvency of the Social Security trust fund.

To be clear, if the fund is depleted, Social Security won’t go belly up. Benefits will continue to be paid out, but there will be a large drop in the amount. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the “average monthly cut would total $500, which is more than what the average retired household spends on groceries each month.”

That would be a huge blow to the budgets of many older Americans. Social Security is a major source of income for most retirees, and roughly 40% of beneficiaries over the age of 65 rely on it for most of their income. And it would mark the destabilization of the sole source of retirement security for most Americans that is supposed to be insulated from ups and downs — unlike 401K plans. As the CBPP has pointed outSocial Security is “most workers’ only source of guaranteed retirement income that is not subject to investment risk or financial market fluctuations.”

Trump’s acceleration of the program’s insolvency comes atop his assaults on the program’s administrative capacities. His cuts to the Social Security Administration have left offices understaffedincreased wait timesand reduced quality of customer service.

Ultimately, Trump is exacerbating a colossal social safety net problem that predates him, and the trust fund will hit dire straits after he has left office. Democrats need to have clear plans for shoring up the program and making it robust for the future — which will require not being sheepish about taxes as a tool for renewing the social contract. And when Republicans try to claim that they, too, are champions of Social Security, all Democrats need to do is point to the truth.

Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He primarily writes about politics and foreign policy.

The Dictatorship

Wednesday’s Mini-Report, 6.10.26

Published

9 hours ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Today’s edition of quick hits.

* The latest from Northern Ireland: “The family of a man who lost an eye in a knife attack appealed for calm on Wednesday after the incident triggered a wave of anti-immigrant violence in Belfast overnight, with masked men burning families out of their homes and torching vehicles. The appeal ‌came as a Sudanese man appeared in court charged with attempted murder and as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and politicians in Northern Ireland condemned the violence by ‘masked thugs’ that had targeted ethnic minorities.”

* In related news: “The British government hit out at X owner Elon Musk Wednesday, accusing him of whipping up tensions online ahead of disorder in Belfast.”

* The tenuous state of a dubious ceasefire: “Trump said the U.S. is going to hit Iran ‘hard’ today when pressed by reporters in the Oval Office about his statement earlier that Tehran will ‘pay the price’ for taking ‘too long’ to reach a peace agreement. ‘Well, we’re going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard, resuming bombing,’ he said.”

* The latest casualty figures from Lebanon: “Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon has killed at least 3,666 people, including 131 healthcare workers, and injured more than 11,300 since the U.S. and Israel began their war with Iran in late February, the Lebanese health ministry reported yesterday.”

* The changing nature of modern warfare: “Ukraine is wreaking havoc on unarmored trucks and trains in the battlefield’s rear, using drones with upgraded engines and batteries, integrated Starlink communication systems and new artificial-intelligence capabilities. The ramped-up attacks are causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity on the front.”

* This seems like a reasonable request: “Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee demanded Wednesday that Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s controversial pick for acting director of national intelligence, submit to a full security check before assuming the post, including an examination of his financial holdings and foreign contacts.”

* Some market trends can’t be stopped despite the White House’s best efforts: “Even as President Donald Trump boosts coal over clean energy, solar power is hitting new milestones in the U.S. and remains the leading source of new power. Data released Wednesday by global energy think tank Ember, along with a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie, show the continued growth of solar and decline of coal in the United States despite federal policy. In May, for the first time, solar supplied more of the nation’s electricity than coal, or 12.8%, Ember said.”

* A bizarre schedule for a nonemergency vanity project: “Federal officials are laying more groundwork to begin construction on President Donald Trump’s planned 250-foot-tall triumphal arch, sharing additional documents that detail the project’s scope and an aggressive timetable for potentially completing work before Trump’s term ends. According to National Park Service documents posted this month, the administration envisions 20 hours per day of construction on the arch, year-round, in hopes of completing the project within two to three years.”

See you tomorrow.

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”