The Dictatorship
Trump’s peace plan comes with some major sticking points
Israel and Hamas may have agreed to the first phase of President Donald Trump’s peace plan, but major hurdles remain to permanently end the hostilities that have caused chaos, death and devastation for more than two years in the region.
Several elements of the president’s multipronged road map conflict with Hamas’ interests, including a call for the U.S.-designated terrorist group to disarm and for Gaza to be temporarily governed by a Trump-led council of nations. There’s also questions about the structure and logistics of an international peacekeeping force that would be deployed to Gaza.
“We have to be careful to constantly sort out what has been achieved,” former U.S. deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes told BLN.
He added that there were “key areas of differences” between the two parties.
“If those are not addressed, we could be sitting here in a couple of months with Israeli military operations resumed in the Gaza Strip,” Rhodes said.
The initial step of Trump’s 20-point blueprint — a hostage-and-prisoner exchange set to begin early next week — comes with its own challenges. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government finalized a list of Palestinian prisoners set to be released, which could include individuals accused of orchestrating major terrorist attacks. That’s a significant point of political tension in Israel.
Lianne Pollak-David, a former adviser to Netanyahu who served as a negotiator to Israel’s Palestinian counterparts, noted that Hamas has a history of playing “tricks” in past hostage releases, including sending the wrong dead body to relatives. “If something of that sort goes wrong, that could blow up the whole thing, the whole deal,” she said.
But Trump’s expected travel to the Middle East on Sunday, with visits to Israel and Egypt, could put pressure on both sides to uphold their ends of the bargain. A stop in Gaza was initially considered, but ultimately ruled out, said a White House official, who stressed that the president’s travel plans remain fluid and subject to change. Trump’s presence in the region, shortly before hostages are expected to be released, “brings a certain gravitas to the process,” Pollak-David said.
Here’s a deeper look at some of the key sticking points to watch in the White House’s peace plan:
Disarmament of Hamas
Leaders of Hamas have previously said they would be unwilling to disarm during the course of negotiations with meditators that have stretched on for more than a year. However, a senior U.S. administration official downplayed concerns about disarmament, arguing that private communications don’t match up with those public statements.
Hugh Lovatt, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes members of the political wing of Hamas — who are mostly based in Qatar — are open to surrendering offensive weapons. Such actions could include destroying missiles, production facilities and underground attack tunnels.
“Hamas has stuck quite hard to many of its red lines, but on the question of decommissioning, to use their words, that is something where there has been the most notable shifts,” Lovatt said.
But Lovatt also stressed that much is still unknown in terms of implementation.
‘Board of Peace’
Governance of Gaza remains a complex and politically charged issue. Israel is opposed to a governing structure that consists of only Palestinians, while Palestinians are ultimately looking for self-determination.
In Trump’s proposal, the administration describes a temporary apolitical committee of “qualified Palestinians and international experts.” A council of foreign leaders — one that includes former British prime minister Tony Blair and is chaired by Trump — would then oversee the committee.
Trump’s role at the helm, according to Lovatt, is seen as a positive by some Arab countries, suggesting that the White House has a longer-term stake in remaining involved in the process.
“The idea of an international oversight committee is a way of trying to square that circle between Israeli demands and Palestinian expectations,” Lovatt said. “If the board has sweeping powers over Gaza’s legislation, judiciary, real estate, then that’s a problem. If it’s more of a supervisory capacity, then that’s much more in line with Palestinian demands.”
International Stabilization Force
U.S. Central Command — more colloquially known as CENTCOM — is leading a joint task force of armed forces from various countries, including up to 200 American personnel who will be responsible for ensuring that phase one is completed without violations of the agreement.
Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates also would provide armed forces to be embedded in the group. It’s possible some of those U.S. personnel could be on the ground in Israel, according to a White House official. But the personnel are not “intended” to enter Gaza, another official said.
Ultimately, Trump’s framework aims for an international peacekeeping force to be established to replace Israel’s troops in Gaza. Discussions continue with multiple governments on the force’s creation, according to senior administration officials.
Those talks could address open questions about funding and the logistics of the force. But a well-defined mandate of the force remains a bigger question. And whether the force would simply be involved in deconfliction, or whether counterterrorism and intelligence efforts also would be part of the force’s mission, remains to be seen.
Lovatt said the risk is that any international force gets stuck in Gaza without a clear timeline for a two-state solution. That lack of clarity, Lovatt added, is perhaps the most significant challenge ahead for all parties involved.
“The U.S. effort is not really dealing with the root causes, which is Israeli political, public opposition to a two-state solution” and “a very dysfunctional Palestinian political landscape,” Lovatt said.
“At best case, it’s a stepping-stone or two towards that,” he said.
Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for BLN.
The Pentagon has told Congress the war in Iran cost $29 billion through mid-May. Outside experts think the real number could be two to three times higher — and so far, the Defense Department hasn’t explained why.
The conflict has led to the largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with more than 50,000 American troops stationed in the region. Nearly four months after the war started, the U.S. has fired thousands of munitions, dramatically depleting weapons stockpiles.
Defense Department officials told lawmakers that the war cost $11.3 billion over the first six days of fighting, and later estimated that approximately $25 billion was spent by the middle of May. But experts on defense spending say that number likely undercounts the real total by tens of billions of dollars, with independent assessments ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion.
Munitions were the single biggest expense in the department’s projections. But outside experts note that the Pentagon’s public estimates left out the cost of repairing damaged assets and resupplying stockpiles to prewar levels. Asked for a more detailed accounting, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers: “When it’s relevant and required, we will share it.”
That response has drawn bipartisan criticism on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have said the Pentagon is not being transparent about how the war is being funded.
A comprehensive analysis released Friday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank, found that munitions alone likely cost $25 billion, with long-range precision munitions and anti-missile munitions, like Tomahawks and Patriots, carrying the highest price tags. Repairing and replacing damaged military assets — along with rebuilding damaged U.S.-affiliated bases and facilities throughout the Middle East — could cost anywhere from $11 billion to $14 billion, according to the CSIS analysis. Separately, the Congressional Research Service reported that at least 42 fixed-wing or unmanned U.S. aircraft have been damaged or destroyed since the U.S. launched its strikes on Feb. 28.
The toll has been just as steep on America’s weapons reserves. The United States has now burned through one-third to one-half of its most critical munitions stockpilesraising fears that the country has entered a “window of vulnerability” that could compromise its readiness for a future conflict elsewhere.
“The problem is for a conflict in the Western Pacific against China,” said Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at CSIS’ Defense and Security Department. “We were low on all of these munitions before the war, and of course now we’re even lower.”
The long-term price tag may be even harder to pin down, according to Linda Bilmes, a public finance expert at Harvard’s Kennedy School. She notes that the Pentagon’s estimates left out veterans’ healthcare and disability benefits entirely.
“The amount of disability benefits — just disability benefits — that we owe to veterans from the Iraq, Afghanistan, Gulf and Vietnam wars was $7.3 trillion. That doesn’t count healthcare,” Bilmes said. “So these things are really expensive. We expect that at least half of those who are serving now and who are continued to be deployed will qualify automatically for benefits.”
Bilmes also argues that no full accounting of the war’s cost can ignore its ripple effects on American consumers — particularly through rising oil prices, which could carry consequences for the broader global economy.
As of Thursday evening, Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs estimates in its Iran War Energy Cost tracker that the total consumer burden as a result of the war with Iran is more than $60 billion — about $458 per household — driven largely by the jump in fuel prices.
Bilmes argues that no full accounting of the war’s costs can ignore that hit to household budgets — or the larger risks the war poses to the economy. “It’s certainly possible that we see stagflation or other long-term economic consequences from what has happened in the past three months,” Bilmes said.
Priya Sridhar is the Pentagon correspondent for MS NOW.
As President Donald Trump and Iran move forward with a memorandum of understanding to end the war, many congressional Republicans are expressing unease about what the emerging deal means for the United States.
But several Republicans have also expressed concern with what the agreement means for another country: Israel.
Several Republicans told MS NOW they are particularly distraught with a provision calling for an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” — language they fear could constrain Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah.
In recent weeks, Israel has continued strikes on southern Lebanontargeting Hezbollah there. Israel even struck Lebanon after the memorandum was announced.
When MS NOW asked Republicans on Thursday if the Iran deal was good for Israel, GOP lawmakers expressed a number of worries.
Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., took issue with the fact that Israel seemed to have been cut out of the negotiations, saying he’d like to find out what the Trump administration’s “thought process” was on that.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, similarly took issue with Israel getting cut out — going so far as to suggest that Israel should perhaps ignore the deal.
“They’ve got their own interests at stake, and you know, I would encourage them to continue to take the fight to Hezbollah,” he told MS NOW.
Like many other Republicans, Cornyn also took issue with the memorandum’s provision calling for up to $300 billion in reconstruction money for Iran.
“Unfortunately, now Iran is going to have hundreds of millions of dollars to support its terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah,” Cornyn said.
And Cornyn’s Texas colleague, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, was similarly concerned about forking money over to Iran.
“History demonstrates that sending billions of dollars to a theocratic lunatic who wants to murder us is a really bad idea,” he said.
Other Republicans were just as blunt with their criticism.
When MS NOW asked Rep. Don Bacon if the preliminary agreement was positive for Israel, the retiring Nebraska Republican was succinct: “No it is not.”
“Protecting … Hezbollah is not in Israel’s interests. The administration appeared desperate to get Iran to sign,” he said. “The MOU favors Iran significantly. They got their way with Trump.”
Bacon added that the U.S. had “significant military successes” against Iran.
“But Trump wanted an immediate deal too desperately and frittered away success,” he said.
Beyond the Lebanon provision, some of Israel’s top GOP allies are citing a tenet of the memorandum that says the U.S. “further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal,” which experts say could allow Iran to say it drove the U.S. from the area.
Asked if he was concerned the deal may not be positive for Israel, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, the former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, responded in a text message: “Super!”
He said the clause about the U.S. retreating from Iran was “the most astounding.”
“Wow,” he wrote. “I am sure that Iran interprets this clause as the removal of U.S. forces from bases and facilities in the [Gulf Cooperation Council] states. Has there been a greater strategic defeat? As they say ‘The Devil is in the details.’”
And while Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., expressed concerns about what the deal means for Israel, he also took issue with the potential political fallout for Republicans domestically.
“I want to protect Israel for its own sake,” Tillis said. “But there’s also a compelling political reason not to send the message that we’re no better than the Democrats, who have, by and large, let their left wing turn their backs on Israel.”
The concerns are surfacing as the administration finally sends members of Congress the MOU, giving lawmakers their first official chance to review the 14 points.
Israel itself has received the memorandum with a great deal of skepticism, with Axios reporting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes the deal is a mistake.
But the White House is carefully warning Israeli leaders to choose their words carefully.
On Thursday, when Vice President JD Vance was asked about some of the pushback on the deal from Israel, he warned that “Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this point in time.”
“If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world,” Vance said.
The spat is putting Republicans — who have long sided with Israel — in a potentially uncomfortable spot.
One of Israel’s most outspoken defenders in Congress, Republican Rep. Randy Fine of Florida, notably gave the White House some breathing room when asked whether this was a good deal for Israel.
“Israel isn’t a party to the MOU, and I believe they will act in their best interest,” he texted MS NOW. “My focus is on whether it is a good deal for the United States.”
“A final deal could be bad for Israel; it could be great for Israel. Same is true for America,” he said.
Rather than outwardly cross Trump and the White House, many Republicans seem intent on deferring to Israel’s leaders.
“Israel is going to make their own judgment on that,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V. “I don’t have a comment on that.”
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. — who touts himself as a “vocal supporter” of Israel — said he wouldn’t want to “assess another country’s security interests.”
“So I just defer to them on that,” he said.
Other Republicans are preaching patience.
When MS NOW asked Sen. Lindsey Graham if this was a good deal for Israel, the South Carolina Republican pointed to the forthcoming 60 days of negotiations before a final agreement.
“It depends on how it all ends,” he said. “If it ends with a deal to contain Iran, it’d be a good deal for the region. If it ends where Saudi can go back to the peace table with Israel, it’d be a good deal. We just don’t know yet.”
“The MOU is not going to change history one way or the other,” Graham said.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., was similarly willing to let the process play out.
“I would like to see the Israelis give the agreement 60 days to try to work,” he said. “And if it doesn’t work, we can go back to bombing.”
Jack Fitzpatrick contributed to this report.
Kevin Frey is a congressional reporter for MS NOW.
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.
A Republican congressional candidate Jackson Lahmeyer has dropped out of a runoff for a U.S. House in Oklahoma following reports that he had sent intimate text messages to a woman who was not his wife.
“After prayerful consideration with my wife, Kendra, and my team over the last twenty four hours, I’ve made the difficult decision to suspend my campaign for Congress,” Lahmeyer, a candidate for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, said in a statement Wednesday.
“I do not want to be a distraction to my family, my church, and the great people of Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, who deserve a strong conservative voice representing them in Washington,” he added.
President Donald Trump initially endorsed Lahmeyer, whom he called a “MAGA Warrior,” in May but withdrew his support following the controversy. Soon after, Trump endorsed Lahmeyer’s opponentMark Tedford, who now becomes the Republican nominee by default.
“I greatly appreciate Jackson Lahmeyer’s hard work under difficult circumstances — He has always been with me, and I will always be with him,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday. “But, when it comes to the current Congressional race for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, I will be supporting America First Patriot, Mark Tedford. Mark is Pro Trump and MAGA all the way!”
Lahmeyer, a pastor Sheridan Church in Tulsa, centered his congressional campaign around his Christian faith.
Lahmeyer dropped out of the race after the Daily Mail reported Sunday that he had exchanged numerous romantic text messages with Caitlin Simmons Key, who worked as a fundraiser for his campaign. In one text message obtained by the Daily Mail, Lahmeyer allegedly invited Key into his hotel room. Key also alleged that Lahmeyer once professed his love to her.
“There’s a real problem with the fact that he’s married and a pastor,” Key told the outlet. “There is a responsibility when you are leading people in the name of Christ to hold yourself to a higher standard.”
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
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