Politics

Trump and Vance think anti-immigrant hate is good politics. They’re mistaken.

Published

2 years ago

November 12, 2024

Trump and Vance think anti-immigrant hate is good politics. They’re mistaken.

Over the weekend, Ohio senator and vice presidential nominee JD Vance made a stunning and unintentional admission: He’s a liar.

For more than a week, Vance, former President Donald Trump and many of their allies have spread falsehoods about the town of Springfield, Ohio, and its Haitian immigrant community. Most infamously, Trump last week repeated the now oft-debunked claim that Haitian migrants in the town are stealing and eating pet dogs and cats.

But on BLN, Vance gave away the GOP’s game. “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.” He claimed that the “American media” ignored the “problems in Springfield” associated with the impact of Haitian migration on public services in the town until “Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes.” Vance tried to explain away his verbal slip, but he couldn’t avoid the truth: “creating stories” is another way to say “making stuff up.”

Most insidious is the effect on the local Haitian community, which is increasingly under siege.

The consequences for such lies are both obvious and frightening. A steady stream of bomb threats has forced Springfield officials to temporarily shutter government offices, hospitals, elementary and middle schools, and two local colleges. On Monday, a local festival celebrating “diversity, arts and culture,” was also canceled — a fitting monument to Trump and Vance’s racist attacks.

Most insidious is the effect on the local Haitian communitywhich is increasingly under siege. As Vance’s rhetoric has made clear, his concern is not the Haitians’ immigration status: They are in America legally. Rather, the issue is their skin color and background of those moving to Springfield. As the vice presidential nominee argued on X this weekendthe real question about Springfield is, “Should we drop 20,000 people from a radically different culture in a small Ohio town in a matter of a few years?”

Never mind that, like so many immigrant communities before them, the Haitian community in Springfield has more than acclimated itself to their new homes. Their “positive influences” on the town have been noted by everyone from Springfield’s Republican mayor and local business leaders to Ohio’s Republican governor, who has decried the Trump/Vance-led attacks as “garbage.”

But would Vance make such proclamations if the 20,000 people were, say, from Norway? Would he make the same argument about urban gentrification and thousands of white yuppies moving into a predominately Black or Hispanic community?

When Vance claims that “what is happening in Springfield is coming to every town and city in this country if Kamala Harris’ open border policies are allowed to continue,” his intent is not difficult to discern. His incessant focus on “illegal immigration” and problems “at the border” is nothing more than a racist dog whistle to MAGA voters. And it’s one that minority communities have seen play out in America for centuries.

The last nine years of American politics have shown us that Trump and his minions only sing from one anti-immigrant hymnal.

It’s also quite purposeful. As Marc Caputo reported Sunday for the Bulwark, “Privately, Trump aides think it’s a net plus,” writes Caputo. “The longer the discussion is about migrants, the less it is about tougher topics for them. ‘We talk about abortion; we lose. We talk about immigration, we win,’ said one Trump adviser.”

“But what about the blowback from spreading an incendiary story for which there is no evidence?” Caputo asks. “‘We’ll take the hit to prove the bigger point,’” the adviser responds. NBC News reports that Trump is planning to visit Springfield “soon,” which surely will fan the flames even more.

Immigration is indeed an effective policy issue for Trump. In the most recent ABC/Ipsos pollhe polled 10 points better on it than Harris. But he also polls seven points better than his Democratic rival on the economy and inflation. Not only are those issues the top concerns for undecided votersbut they have the added benefit of not utilizing unabashedly racist sentiments. To side with Trump and Vance because of concerns over the economy is asking a heckuva lot less of voters than siding with them over naked immigrant bashing. The former doesn’t require a cleansing shower after wading in the political sewer.

The last nine years of American politics have shown us that Trump and his minions only sing from one anti-immigrant hymnal. Since 2016, immigrant-bashing has been the issue that most consistently unites GOP candidates — and it’s one that has taken on an even darker hue this cycle, with routine talk of immigrant “invasions” into the U.S.

There is, however, less evidence that it’s an effective political strategy. In 2018, Trump-supported candidates regularly used xenophobic attack lines in their campaigns. This was the election of “migrant caravans” and “bad hombres.” It didn’t work. Trump trotted out the usual dog whistles in 2020. So did Republican candidates in 2022. Neither led to political success. Maybe 2024 will be different, but the evidence is against xenophobic broadsides against immigrants as a route to political success.

In fact, the constant attacks on immigrants and the rising tensions in Springfield and around the country could be a net negative for Trump. The unending negativity that now defines the Trump campaign, the constant feeling of chaos and fatigue around the former president has a profound effect. The demagoguing over Springfield may energize MAGA world but, for the anti-Trump wing of the electorate, it’s a reminder of everything loathsome about the former president. Unfortunately, for Trump and now Vance, shame has always been an emotion in short supply, so there’s little reason to expect the racist, immigration bashing to stop. There’s also not much reason to think it’ll work.

Michael A. Cohen

Michael A. Cohen is a columnist for BLN and a Senior Fellow and co-director of the Afghanistan Assumptions Project at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University. He writes the political newsletter Truth and Consequences. He has been a columnist at The Boston Globe, The Guardian and Foreign Policy, and he is the author of three books, the most recent being“Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans.”

Politics

Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems

Published

3 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.

Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.

Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.

Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.

Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.

And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.

“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”

What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.

The results were the same in both.

“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”

Gas prices could swing votes

Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.

Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.

“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”

To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.

More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.

Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.

That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”

The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.

Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.

Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.

It’s already affecting the battlegrounds

In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.

Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.

In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”

“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”

Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.

In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.

While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”

But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.

By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.

Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.

This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”

Politics

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Published

10 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been frank about the rocky road the reconciliation effort faces and careful not to guarantee he’ll be successful…
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