The Dictatorship
The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe: ‘The SAVE Act is horrible legislation’
This is the March 18, 2026, edition of “The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe” newsletter.Subscribe hereto get it delivered straight to your inbox Monday through Friday.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Trump promised to get the U.S. out of ‘stupid wars.’ But now he and John Bolton are on the brink of launching us into a very stupid and costly war with Iran.”
— Tulsi Gabbard, the current director of national intelligence, while running for president as a Democrat in 2019
JOE’S NOTE
David Drucker, writer for The Dispatch and an opinion columnist for Bloomberg News, joined us today to break down the voter dynamics among registered Democratic voters amid the results from Tuesday’s elections in Illinois.
JS: David, what did last night’s election results in Illinois say about the strength of moderate candidates in the Democratic Party?
DD: Well, a Democratic poll for Third Way, a centrist think tank, found that the typical Democratic primary voter is a white woman over 55 without a college degree. Most Democratic primary voters end up being white, female, older, and not college-educated.
JS: What was your takeaway?
DD: It confirms a familiar pattern. In both parties, the most pragmatic presidential candidate usually wins the nomination. Voters may like passion, but when it’s time to choose, they go with electability.
The poll also showed voters want a fighter willing to take on Republicans, but their own views aren’t far left.
JS: After rarely discussing faith on the campaign trail for years, Democrats seem more comfortable doing so now. Is this why?
DD: One surprise to me was that 57% of Democratic primary voters identify as Christian, many as evangelical or born-again. It’s a reminder that most Democratic voters resemble mainstream America. If you want to win in 2028, you need to appeal to that middle, not just the progressive fringe.
JS: I noticed the same divide during the 2020 Democratic debates — candidates focused on Twitter instead of voters. [Joe] Biden was the lone moderate, and he swept the primaries after South Carolina.
MB: Why do you think that happened when the energy seemed to be with other Democratic candidates?
JS: Younger voters are more left-leaning. But for now, the average Democrat is a 55-year-old white woman who makes up a centrist coalition with voters of color who tend to be moderate, especially Black women and many Hispanic voters. Despite the online noise, Democrats still win from the middle.
Elisabeth Bumiller: Exactly. Every Democratic president for decades — Biden, Obama, Clinton, Carter — has been a moderate. That could change, with younger progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani energizing the base. But for now, the center still defines the party.
It is striking, though, that the average primary voter isn’t college-educated, given Democrats’ reputation as the party of the educated class.
DD: Right. These are self-identified primary voters. The party’s base has become more college-educated overall, but this shows how the primary electorate differs. Democrats have moved somewhat left over time, but the average voter still sees themselves as center-left, pragmatic, and tolerant of disagreement. They want fighters who focus on priorities, not purity tests. Biden’s success in 2020 proves that dynamic still holds.
JS: And to be clear, no one’s saying Democrats are conservative — just that they may be less progressive as a whole than social media suggests.
CHART OF THE DAY
EYES WIDE SHUT
It happens to all of us: You snap awake in the middle of the night, the room still dark, your alarm hours away — and you just can’t get back to sleep.
About 1 in 5 Americans experiences this kind of middle-of-the-night insomnia, according to The Washington Post. If you’re one of them, a simple breathing trick may help.
Try the 4-7-8 method: Inhale for four seconds, hold for seven, then exhale slowly for eight. Repeat until your body starts to settle.
If that doesn’t work, you might try a cognitive shuffle or progressive muscle relaxation. And, of course, leave your phone alone.
ON THIS DATE
In 1990, thieves posing as police officers slipped into Boston’s Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum and made off with 13 works of art — among them paintings by Rembrandt and Vermeer — valued at more than $500 million.
More than three decades later, it remains the largest unsolved art heist in history and is the subject of the Netflix docuseries “This Is a Robbery,” directed and co-produced by the Barnicle boys!
A CONVERSATION WITH SEN. MARK KELLY
was. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona joined “Morning Joe” ahead of the briefing to discuss his views on the conflict — and the answers he says the American people deserve.
JS: Senator, you know what it’s like to go into combat. What’s on your mind today when you think about those serving in the U.S. military?
MK: We’ve got the most incredible men and women serving this country, and I think it’s fair to say their family members are serving as well. It’s challenging to live that life. They deserve to have a government that’s looking out for their best interests, and I’m not sure that’s the case right now.
JS: What would you tell loved ones watching the news, nervous about their sons or daughters being deployed in the Middle East?
MK: It’s challenging, because the president entered this war without a strategic goal, without a plan, without a timeline.
I tell them I’ve got their backs — I’ll keep pushing this administration to make better decisions and hold them accountable when they don’t.
JS: You’re heading today into a major intelligence briefing. What’s the key question you need answered?
MK: I want to know how these decisions are actually making Americans safer — because right now, it doesn’t look that way. The president is surrounded by people who won’t challenge him, and that’s dangerous, especially on matters of national security.
When I was in charge of the space shuttle, I used to tell my crew members that they were required to question my decisions, especially when it came to safety or mission success.
JL: There are now real questions about whether Iran was an imminent threat. How do you plan to address that today?
MK: I want clarity on what intelligence was presented to the president — and whether anyone raised concerns about the risks, including in the Strait of Hormuz.
The president doesn’t seem to fully understand the military’s capabilities or how it operates.
JS: Senator, let’s talk about the SAVE Act. People on social media keep pushing the lie that it’s the only way to save America. What’s really going on here?
MK: This goes far beyond voter ID. People would have to re-register, and many wouldn’t even be able to use a military ID. It puts real barriers in front of working people and seniors who may not have the documents required.
We’re going to do everything we can to stop this. The SAVE Act is horrible legislation that would take our country back decades.
This conversation has been condensed and edited for brevity and clarity.
EXTRA HOT TEA
1 IN 9.2 QUINTILLION
— The mathematical odds of successfully predicting an entire March Madness bracket
ONE MORE SHOT
Willie Nelson performs in concert during the 11th Annual Luck Potluck at Luck Ranch last night in Spicewood, Texas.
CATCH UP ON MORNING JOE
The Dictatorship
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump’s announcement
NEW YORK (AP) — A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.
These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.
An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial “Yes” bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.
One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.
Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.
Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump’s post, made $31,908 of “Yes” bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for “Yes” at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.
There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat — a phenomenon his critics have derided as “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO.
While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as “disputed,” given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: “It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions.”
The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.
Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.
“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry’s regulations. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”
_____
Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M.
The Trump administration’s fragile white ego is in focus yet again thanks to newly proposed changes for an exhibit in Philadelphia centered on George Washington and slavery.
The administration is being sued by the city over its efforts to whitewash Washington’s history of slave ownership from the President’s House Site, the nation’s first official presidential residence. The push has been put on hold by a judge who compared it to the censorship depicted in George Orwell’s book “1984.”
The attempted alteration of the exhibit came after a Trump executive order demanded a review of national parks and museums to bar any displays that “inappropriately disparage Americans past or living.” Last year, Trump also lobbed a puerile complaint that Smithsonian musuems focus too much on “how bad” slavery was.
And all that kvetching provides context for the changes that Trump’s administration is seeking to impose at the President’s House Site — alterations that The Philadelphia Inquirer said places the first president’s slave ownership “in a more sympathetic light.”
The Inquirer flagged government renderings showing plans for new historical panels to be installed at the site, and it seems clear that the administration’s goal is to make Washington out to be a loving patriot or conscientious objector to slavery, rather than a racist slave driver.
First, note what the Inquirer said has been removed:
The panels taken down by the Park Service in January included displays titled ‘The Dirty Business of Slavery’ and ‘Life Under Slavery,’ as well as illustrations about the Fugitive Slave Act and Ona Judge, who was enslaved by Washington and later escaped.
So the administration wants to omit detailed references to Washington’s slavery history — which Black activists fought for years to include — while also promoting a whitewashed narrative that he was a fundamentally moral man despite the whole “claiming dominion over other human beings” thing. Per the Inquirer:
For instance, on one panel titled ‘Presidents Washington and Adams on Slavery,’ the Trump administration writes that ‘Caught between his private doubts about slavery and his public responsibilities as president, George Washington navigated a nation deeply divided over slavery.’
‘Privately, George Washington often expressed discomfort with the institution and a desire to see it abolished,’ the panel continued. ‘Yet as a Virginia plantation owner, his wealth and livelihood were deeply tied to it.’
And another example:
And later in the same panel: ‘Slaves living in the President’s House experienced a greater modicum of autonomy than elsewhere in the South such as to explore the city and sometimes even attend the theater, with Washington buying the tickets.’
When a censorship regime like Trump’s sees fit to tout a slave owner’s generosity — and the “greater modicum of autonomy” he purportedly granted to those he subjected to brutal bondage and forced labor — it leaves little doubt that the fundamental goal is to sanitize history, rather than teach it thoroughly.
A White House spokesperson told the Inquirer that the administration wants to acknowledge “the full breadth of our nation’s history” and that “no piece of history should be washed away.”
But “whitewashing” truly is the most apt descriptor for a plan that includes touting George Washington as some kind of selfless, principled gift-giver while brushing past, or deliberately omitting, details about his well-documented — and extremely lucrative — history of enslaving human beings.
Ja’han Jones is an MS NOW opinion blogger. He previously wrote The ReidOut Blog.
Today’s edition of quick hits.
* Crisis conditions in Lebanon: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel vowed on Thursday to continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, hours after he appeared to make a concession by saying his country would start talks with the Lebanese government about trying to disarm the Iran-backed paramilitary group.”
* In related news: “More than 80 countries — which did not include the U.S. — condemned Israel’s lethal strikes on Lebanon. … Several international leaders have condemned Israel’s intensified strikes on Lebanon, which killed more than 300 people yesterday alone, according to The Associated Press, citing the country’s health ministry.”
* This wasn’t a problem before the war: “Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowed today to tighten control over the Strait of Hormuz and claimed victory in the ongoing war between his country and Israel and the U.S. ‘We will definitely take the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new phase,’ Khamenei said in a series of posts on X.”
* Inflation news: “Core inflation held above the Federal Reserve’s target before the recent surge in energy prices, according to a key gauge released Thursday that offers the central bank a snapshot of conditions leading into the Iran war. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%.”
* The good news is, the vaccine saves lives; the bad news is, the Trump administration doesn’t want us to know that: “The acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has delayed publication of a CDC report showing the covid-19 vaccine cut the likelihood of emergency department visits and hospitalizations for healthy adults last winter by about half, according to two scientists familiar with the decision.”
* Even for this White House, her remarks were weird: “First lady Melania Trump denied any ties to convicted sex offenders Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell on Thursday. … ‘The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today,’ the first lady began in remarks delivered from the White House. … It was not clear who or which statements or reporting she was referring to.”
* On a related note, Donald Trump told MS NOW that he didn’t know about his wife’s press statement.
* Trump’s animosity toward the NFL has reached a new stage: “The Justice Department has opened an investigation into whether the National Football League has engaged in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers, according to people familiar with the situation.”
See you tomorrow.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
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