Politics
Why Trump’s endorsement hasn’t been a ‘close out move’ for Louisiana Senate
When President Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow against Sen. Bill Cassidy, many thought she had a clear path to the upper chamber.
But three months after Trump pushed Letlow into the field, the race stands as a tight three-way contest between her, Cassidy and State Treasurer John Fleming, with all of them appearing to have a real chance to make the mid-May runoff.
That has some Louisiana Republicans reconsidering whether Cassidy could survive in spite of his breaks with the president, including his 2021 vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, and his low polling numbers compared to Letlow and Fleming. Others are wondering if Letlow might end up locked in a runoff with Fleming that could prove much more challenging to her chances.
She has been massively outspent by Cassidy on the airwaves, still has low name ID compared to her opponents, and faces in Fleming another candidate with MAGA appeal and his own network of support. That’s making it harder for her to capitalize on Trump’s endorsement and rally the base behind her as she runs her first statewide campaign under a compressed timeline.
The outcome will be a test for Trump, whose meddling in the Louisiana Senate race may reveal the power of his endorsement at a time when his approval is at an all time low — as well as the viability of his efforts to seek vengeance against Republicans who cross him.
“The Trump endorsement has not had a close-out move. Cassidy was ready for her,” said GOP state Rep. Mike Bayham, who has not publicly supported any candidate yet. “They defined her before she introduced herself.”
Public polling gives a muddied picture of the primary, with polls from late March showing Letlow holding a narrow lead. A recent memo from Letlow’s campaign highlights an internal poll showing her leading with 29 percent, followed by Fleming at nearly 24 percent and Cassidy at nearly 20 percent. It also includes potential runoff scenarios showing her leading Cassidy 50 percent to 24 percent and in a statistical dead heat with Fleming in a head-to-head matchup.
“We’re in the middle of a dogfight,” said Mark Harris, a Cassidy aide. “Everyone’s expectation is that she would shoot to a large lead and that we’d all be running from behind. But frankly I think they just weren’t ready for this race.”
Letlow’s campaign claims that she has the most momentum in the race. She’s been endorsed by the Jefferson Parish Republican Executive Committee, one of the largest GOP groups in the state, and has the backing of Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who has clashed with Cassidy and made the unusual move of selecting her over a Republican incumbent.
“We are talking about an incumbent who is underwater,” said a Letlow campaign aide. “Julia is surging. Her lead continues to grow the more the people learn that she’s endorsed by the President.”
Trump and his allies haven’t stepped in much for Letlow beyond his initial endorsement — at least not yet. The Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-aligned Make America Healthy Again PAC has pledged to spend $1 million to boost Letlow and oust Cassidy, who has been openly skeptical of the Health secretary. But Louisiana Republicans are still waiting to see if the president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., will spend any of the $300 million cash it has on hand.
MAGA Inc. has been tightlipped about its midterm spending plans so far and whether it will toss money to Letlow for the primary or runoff.
A MAGA Inc. PAC spokesperson and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Cassidy, boosted by a massive war chest, has been outspending Letlow for weeks. His campaign has combined with the Louisiana Freedom Fund, an outside group backing the senator, to pour more than $14 million into the race on ads, most of them attacks against Letlow. Letlow’s campaign and outside groups have combined to spend just $4.6 million, according to the tracking service AdImpact. Federal Election Commission fundraising reports next week will reveal her fundraising capabilities and if she’ll be able to keep pace with Cassidy’s haul.
Letlow’s ads have almost exclusively focused on her endorsement from Trump, rather than attacks on Cassidy. But he’s gone hard after her.
In recent days, Cassidy’s campaign has highlighted a video of Letlow praising diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives while interviewing for a job as president of the University of Louisiana at Monroe in 2020. They’re also hammering her for trading stocks of defense contractors amid the war in Iran.
In response to Cassidy’s DEI attacks, Letlow has pointed to his support for Biden’s economic stimulus package that included equity provisions to help underserved schools and businesses impacted by the pandemic.
Letlow told a local news outlet in March that DEI initiatives at the university had been “presented to us as something that would help students achieve the American dream,” but that she realized that the diversity push was “hijacked by the radical left and turned into indoctrination.”
“Cassidy’s problem in this race is that he’s trying to make it an ideological race. The problem with that framing is that he has spent the past four years trying to undermine the president,” the Letlow aide said, referencing Cassidy’s initial refusal to support Trump’s third presidential bid and call for Trump to drop out after the FBI raided Mar-A-Lago in an investigation of his handling of classified documents.
Part of Letlow’s challenge is that she hails from a rural district in north Louisiana far from the population hubs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Her district is more culturally aligned with the deep South and starkly different from the Catholic, Cajun and Creole influence throughout the southern half of the state.
“People haven’t met her. She’s almost invisible as a candidate,” said East Baton Rouge Parish Chair Woody Jenkins, who has not decided who he supports.
“When you’re just meeting someone new in politics, and you hear all these bad things, you might have a first impression, but you tend to start having second thoughts,” he added. “And he’s just relentless in it.”
And then there’s the Fleming factor.
“The two runoff spots are wide open,” said Matt Kay, Caddo Parish GOP chair, who described himself as an “anybody but Cassidy voter.” Kay said he was initially leaning toward Letlow, but after he saw her comments in support of DEI, he became interested in Fleming, who he sees as “more in touch with conservative voters.”
Fleming has largely self-funded his campaign, which launched last year. One of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus, he’s made inroads with Republican voters, especially in rural communities, with his stark opposition to carbon capture, which he says is a dangerous process that risks water contamination, costs taxpayers and violates property rights.
Both Fleming and Letlow have been aggressively attacking Cassidy for his impeachment vote, calling it a deep betrayal of MAGA and disqualification for the Senate. Louisiana is conducting closed primaries for the first time this year, a change that Fleming thinks will benefit conservatives like him.
“Number one, you have a mistrust of Senator Cassidy amongst Republican based voters,” said John Couvillon, a pollster who works on behalf of Fleming. “Number two, since he does have a relatively Republican voting record, that doesn’t get him any great affections from Democrats either. So he’s kind of the proverbial man without a political country.”
But some Republicans no longer feel that Cassidy’s vote in 2021 to convict Trump should be disqualifying, and they’re reluctant to relinquish his leadership positions to a freshman senator. They also point out that Cassidy, despite expressing concerns about Kennedy’s rejection of some vaccines, ultimately voted for his confirmation, along with the rest of the Trump Cabinet.
“I don’t believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him,” said Kelby Daigle, chair of the St. Martin Parish GOP. “I think it’s silly. We should move on. It’s old news.”
Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
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Poll: Americans uneasy with AI, crypto even as they spend big on midterms
Deep-pocketed political groups tied to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency are rapidly reshaping the midterm money landscape — but many Americans are uneasy with the industries behind the spending.
New results from The POLITICO Poll find broad public skepticism about crypto and AI, creating a possible conflict for candidates benefitting from an influx of contributions from the two industries. These groups are pouring millions of dollars into competitive 2026 races to elevate politicians who they believe will support their agendas in Washington.
Meanwhile, Americans have been slow to embrace either technology.
A 45 percent plurality of Americans say investing in cryptocurrency is not worth the risk, even if it can yield high returns, and a 44 percent plurality say AI is developing too quickly, according to the April survey conducted by independent firm Public First.
Nearly half of Americans say they trust a traditional bank with their money more than a cryptocurrency platform, while just 17 percent say the opposite. And two-thirds support lawmakers either imposing strict regulations or setting broad principles for the AI industry.
The results raise an emerging challenge for the industries as their aligned super PACs seek to translate financial might into political influence. Several of these groups are already becoming the most dominant players on the political battlefield, spending heavily for candidates on both sides of the aisle and in some cases rivaling the fundraising of long-established party groups.
It’s too early to say how candidates associated with these groups will fare in November — and the two industries could draw different reactions from voters. Still, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, poll respondents were much less likely to choose candidates backed by a campaign group seeking looser regulations on artificial intelligence than candidates backed by a group advocating for more stringent rules on AI and tech companies. Those polled were also more likely to support a group advocating for policies to protect the environment and prevent climate change.
Skepticism of the industries, those results suggest, could turn into voter backlash if Americans grow fed up with the heavy spending.
“Democrats’ best approach is to make their spending an issue,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has been outspoken about the need for AI regulation. “People do not want AI companies to run them over culturally and economically. They don’t trust crypto.”
Some of the resistance to the AI and crypto groups may reflect broader American dissatisfaction with special interest groups’ spending. A 41 percent plurality say special interest groups have too much influence over politics in the U.S., while 23 percent say they have the right amount. Just 12 percent say they have too little influence.
But the AI and crypto super PACs are on a new level, and the rise of these groups is creating shockwaves throughout politics. These groups could easily become the biggest spender in any House or Senate race that they choose — or several.
Leading the Future, a pro-AI super PAC founded in August, has already raised more than $75 million since its launch, according to recent filings with the Federal Election Commission. Through a network of PACs, it has deployed money on primaries in North Carolina, Texas, Illinois and New York for Democratic and Republican candidates. Fairshake, a pro-crypto group primarily funded by Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and Ripple Labs, is expected to back candidates in both parties and has already spent $28 million across several competitive primaries through its network of PACs.
Both industries are also spending big on Washington lobbyists to ensure their influence continues past Election Day. The AI lobby in particular has ballooned in recent years; OpenAI and Anthropic spent record amounts of money on lobbyists in the first quarter of 2026. The crypto industry has also poured millions into lobbying efforts in recent years to push Congress to enact a sweeping overhaul of how digital assets are regulated.
“The universal thread, from their perspective, is, I think an attempt to maintain a degree of bipartisanship and identify people whom they think will be champions on these issues,” said Jason Thielman, former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, of the crypto-aligned groups.
For the crypto industry, the super PAC spending is aimed at pushing through a market structure bill called the CLARITY Act that is pending in the Senate. Industry executives and lobbyists hope the proposed law would give the industry a stamp of legitimacy from Washington and deliver long-term certainty about how digital tokens will be overseen by market regulators.
The super PAC money acts as both carrot and stick: It could benefit lawmakers facing competitive reelection campaigns in 2026 who back the industry’s goals — and threaten those who stand in the way.
In 2024, a Fairshake-affiliated super PAC spent more than $40 million to help defeat then-incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Brown, a longtime crypto critic, is running again and could again be a major target for the crypto PAC network.
“Crypto groups are absolutely becoming a disruptive force in political spending, including in Ohio,” said former Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, who unsuccessfully challenged Brown in 2018. “But let’s face it, they’re not unique. It’s just the latest version of outside money.”
Fairshake declined to comment.
The AI groups spending big in elections want to ensure their nascent industry is regulated by one set of federal rules, not a state-by-state patchwork, as state legislators rapidly pass new laws regulating the technology. The White House and congressional Republicans have generally supported that goal, but have so far floated light-touch regulations that most Democrats believe don’t go far enough. While the tech sector leans toward the GOP’s deregulatory approach, some lobbyists are open to strong federal rules on AI in exchange for a ban on state laws.
“A national framework will prevent a patchwork of conflicting state laws from harming our ability to win the global AI race against China,” Leading the Future spokesperson Jesse Hunt said in a statement.
But the polling suggests these industries’ efforts may run into broader public skepticism.
More than half of Americans say they have never and would not consider buying or trading cryptocurrency. On artificial intelligence, nearly half of respondents say it is likely to eliminate more jobs than it creates, and a 43 percent plurality say the risks of the technology outweigh the benefits.
“There is a lot of work that needs to be done to help the voting public fully appreciate the national security threat that we face if we are not first in [the AI] race,” Thielman said of AI-affiliated groups. “It’s essential that [the] industry continue to invest very aggressively here, both to increasingly educate the public, educate policy makers because the issue is somewhat mixed from a public opinion perspective.”
The skepticism cuts across partisan lines, with pluralities of voters for both Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 saying that investing in crypto is not a risk worth taking, even if it gives high returns. A near majority of both groups — 49 percent of Harris voters and 46 percent of Trump voters — say AI is developing too quickly.
For now, many of the super PACs tied to the AI and crypto industries remain relatively unknown to many voters, allowing them to fly under the radar.
Americans associate political spending with more established industries, with a 29 percent plurality incorrectly identifying groups representing the oil and natural gas industry as the highest spenders in the midterms — ahead of AI and tech groups or crypto-backed organizations.
Just nine percent of Americans say they have heard of Leading the Future, the pro-AI super PAC, and only three percent have heard of Fairshake, the pro-crypto PAC. Meanwhile, 48 percent of Americans say they have heard of the National Rifle Association and 36 percent say they’ve heard of Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
“Until people realize where the money’s coming in from, a lot of people don’t judge it,” Renacci said. “But I do think if they see somebody is backed by crypto, that’s always going to be a problem, because, let’s face it, the people that I talk to in Ohio, they don’t understand crypto, and most say they’re not comfortable with [it].”
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