Politics
The Social Security scandal Trump doesn’t want you to know about
Here’s another scandal that Donald Trump doesn’t want you to know about, and it doesn’t involve Adolf Hitler, Jeffrey Epstein or Jan. 6. No, this one involves you — specifically, your retirement.
More than 67 million Americans collect Social Security benefits, including roughly 54 million retired workers. Millions more expect — or at least hope — the program will be there when they grow old. Most retirees depend heavily on Social Security for their income; between 10 million and 16 million older Americans would be in poverty without it, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The program disproportionately helps lower-income Americans, women and people of color.
And here’s the scandal: If implemented, Trump’s economic proposals could bankrupt this vital, popular program within six years.
Every one of Trump’s favorite ideas in this campaign would accelerate Social Security’s time to insolvency.
First, a brief explainer: Social Security funds its benefits with payroll taxes on working-age Americans. After a bipartisan funding deal in 1983, the program ran a surplus every year for nearly three decades, building up its trust fund for the retirement of the baby boomers. But in 2021, Social Security started to run a deficit. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the trust fund will run out before 2035. At that point, benefits will immediately shrink by more than 20%, around $400 per month per recipient on average.
This impending crisis, fortunately, is solvable. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed raising revenue by increasing taxes on Americans who make over $400,000 annually. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Social Security Expansion Act — which Harris co-sponsored as a senator — would go even further: Income over $250,000, as well as business and investment income, would become subject to the payroll tax (currently, payroll tax income is capped at $168,000, so even, say, Jeff Bezos pays no taxes on his income beyond that). These adjustments would make the program solvent for decades, benefits would increase by $200 a month and just 7% of Americans would see their taxes go up. And unlike many tax increases, this one is popular with voters.
Trump has not explained how he would keep Social Security solvent. Worse yet, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, every one of Trump’s favorite ideas in this campaign would accelerate Social Security’s time to insolvency and increase the resulting cuts to benefits.
Any list of Trump’s preferred proposals would include: mass deportations of immigrants; large tariffs on all imports; and eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. Some of these ideas are quite popular; Harris has even come out for “no tax on tips.” But taken together, these ideas could be disastrous for Social Security’s future.
Ending taxes on benefits, overtime pay and tips would shrink the program’s revenue streams. The massive tariffs would increase inflation — and therefore the program’s cost-of-living adjustments. Mass deportation of immigrants would remove millions of immigrant wage earners who contribute to Social Security (yes, even many undocumented immigrants pay payroll taxes). The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports that in combination, these proposals would empty the Social Security trust fund by 2031, four years ahead of the current trajectory and just six years after Trump takes office. And what’s left for retirees would be smaller as well: benefits would shrink by one-third as soon as 2035.
Trump’s third run has been the most plutocrat-friendly yet.
In Trump’s first campaign, he broke with other Republican candidates by promising to “do everything in my power not to touch Social Security.” But as I wrote earlier this year, “when it comes to Social Security … Republicans just can’t help themselves,” and Trump has been around a lot of Republicans for a long time now. When he was president, every one of his budgets proposed cutting Social Security. “There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting,” he told CNBC in March. And now his platform is almost purpose-built to run Social Security into the ground.
But it makes sense that Trump would come around on torpedoing a program whose benefits are most important to the poorest Americans. Trump’s “man of the people” image has always been as fake as his tan, and his third run has been the most plutocrat-friendly yet. His 2017 tax cuts, for example, gave windfalls to the wealthiest but saved some scraps for the less well-off. His new platform doesn’t even do that. An analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that Trump’s new tariff and tax cut extensions would only benefit the richest 5% of households, those that make at least $360,000. The top 1% — effectively, the millionaire class — would get an annual tax cut of $36,000. The other 95% of the country would pay more in taxes.
I can’t tell voters whether to prioritize democracy, their freedoms or their pocketbooks. But for all three concerns, the candidate who presents the biggest threat is the same: Donald Trump.
James Downie is a writer and editor for BLN Daily. He was an editor and columnist for The Washington Post and has also written for The New Republic and Foreign Policy.
Politics
Trump endorses John E. Sununu in New Hampshire Senate race over Scott Brown
President Donald Trump on Sunday endorsed former Sen. John E. Sununu in New Hampshire’s open Senate race, boosting a longtime critic over one of his former ambassadors, Scott Brown.
Trump hailed Sununu, who Republicans see as their best chance to flip the blue Senate seat, as an “America First Patriot” in a Truth Social post Sunday afternoon. And Trump said Sununu will “work tirelessly to advance our America First Agenda.”
“John E. Sununu has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN — ELECT JOHN E. SUNUNU,” he posted.
Sununu, a moderate who has opposed Trump across his presidential runs, thanked him in a statement and quickly pivoted to talking about his priorities for New Hampshire.
“I want to thank the President for his support and thank the thousands of Granite Staters who are supporting me,” Sununu said. “This campaign has and always will be about standing up for New Hampshire — every single day.”
Trump’s endorsement further tips the scales in an already pitched GOP primary between Sununu and Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate before moving to New Hampshire and running unsuccessfully for Senate there in 2014. He served as Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa in his first term, and has been presenting himself as the more Trump-aligned candidate as he courts the MAGA base.
Brown vowed to fight on. And he took a veiled shot at Sununu, accusing him of not being sufficiently dedicated to the MAGA movement.
“I am running to ensure our America First agenda is led by someone who views this mission not as a career path, but as a continuation of a lifelong commitment to service,” Brown said in a post on X. “Let’s keep working.”
The two are competing to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Pappas issued a simple response to Trump’s endorsement of Sununu: “I’m Chris Pappas, and I approve this message,” he wrote on X. His campaign manager, Rachel Pretti, said in a statement that Trump’s endorsement “confirms” that Sununu “will sell out Granite Staters to advance his political career.”
Trump’s support for Sununu once would have seemed unfathomable. The scion of a moderate New Hampshire Republican dynasty, Sununu served as a national co-chair of former Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s 2016 presidential campaign and joined his family in backing former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president against Trump in the 2024 GOP primary.
Ahead of New Hampshire’s 2024 presidential primary, Sununu penned an op-ed lambasting Trump as a “loser.” (Trump went on to win by 11 points). And he later derided Trump’s 2020 election conspiracies as “completely inappropriate.”
Republicans initially were bullish about flipping an open seat in purple New Hampshire that’s already changed hands between parties twice this century — Sununu defeated Shaheen to win the seat in 2002, then lost it to her in 2008 — and coalesced quickly behind the moderate Republican as their best option against Pappas. Sununu received instant backing from the GOP’s Senate campaign arm upon his launch last October and has wracked up endorsements from the majority of Republican senators. He’s also won support from Republican leaders in New Hampshire — all of which Trump noted in his Truth Social post Sunday.
Trump also initially supported Sununu’s younger brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu, running for the Senate seat. Chris Sununu, also a vocal Trump critic, declined to launch a bid, prompting GOP interest in his brother.
But some in Trump’s Granite State MAGA base quickly rejected his endorsement of Sununu, calling it a “slap in the face to grassroots supporters” long loyal to the president.
“The Sununu family openly mocked, degraded, and worked against the America First movement, the President himself, and the policies that energized New Hampshire voters,” a group of MAGA activists wrote on X. “We will continue and intensify our campaign opposition to the Sununu operation.”
Sununu holds a wide lead over Brown in polling of the GOP primary. The latest, a University of New Hampshire online survey of likely primary voters from mid-January, showed Sununu up 48 percent to 25 percent with 26 percent of likely voters undecided. But Pappas is ahead of both Republicans in hypothetical general-election matchups, leading Sununu by 5 percentage points and Brown by 10 percentage points in the UNH poll. The survey of 967 likely GOP primary voters had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
Pappas also outraised both Republicans, bringing in $2.3 million last quarter and amassing a $3.2 million war chest heading into the year. Sununu hauled in $1.3 million and had $1.1 million in cash on hand in his primary campaign account while Brown raised $347,000 through his main account and had $907,000 in the bank.
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