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The Social Security scandal Trump doesn’t want you to know about

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The Social Security scandal Trump doesn’t want you to know about

Here’s another scandal that Donald Trump doesn’t want you to know about, and it doesn’t involve Adolf Hitler, Jeffrey Epstein or Jan. 6. No, this one involves you — specifically, your retirement.

More than 67 million Americans collect Social Security benefits, including roughly 54 million retired workers. Millions more expect — or at least hope — the program will be there when they grow old. Most retirees depend heavily on Social Security for their income; between 10 million and 16 million older Americans would be in poverty without it, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The program disproportionately helps lower-income Americans, women and people of color.

And here’s the scandal: If implemented, Trump’s economic proposals could bankrupt this vital, popular program within six years.

Every one of Trump’s favorite ideas in this campaign would accelerate Social Security’s time to insolvency.

First, a brief explainer: Social Security funds its benefits with payroll taxes on working-age Americans. After a bipartisan funding deal in 1983, the program ran a surplus every year for nearly three decades, building up its trust fund for the retirement of the baby boomers. But in 2021, Social Security started to run a deficit. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the trust fund will run out before 2035. At that point, benefits will immediately shrink by more than 20%, around $400 per month per recipient on average.

This impending crisis, fortunately, is solvable. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed raising revenue by increasing taxes on Americans who make over $400,000 annually. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Social Security Expansion Act — which Harris co-sponsored as a senator — would go even further: Income over $250,000, as well as business and investment income, would become subject to the payroll tax (currently, payroll tax income is capped at $168,000, so even, say, Jeff Bezos pays no taxes on his income beyond that). These adjustments would make the program solvent for decades, benefits would increase by $200 a month and just 7% of Americans would see their taxes go up. And unlike many tax increases, this one is popular with voters.

Trump has not explained how he would keep Social Security solvent. Worse yet, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, every one of Trump’s favorite ideas in this campaign would accelerate Social Security’s time to insolvency and increase the resulting cuts to benefits.

Any list of Trump’s preferred proposals would include: mass deportations of immigrants; large tariffs on all imports; and eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. Some of these ideas are quite popular; Harris has even come out for “no tax on tips.” But taken together, these ideas could be disastrous for Social Security’s future.

Ending taxes on benefits, overtime pay and tips would shrink the program’s revenue streams. The massive tariffs would increase inflation — and therefore the program’s cost-of-living adjustments. Mass deportation of immigrants would remove millions of immigrant wage earners who contribute to Social Security (yes, even many undocumented immigrants pay payroll taxes). The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports that in combination, these proposals would empty the Social Security trust fund by 2031, four years ahead of the current trajectory and just six years after Trump takes office. And what’s left for retirees would be smaller as well: benefits would shrink by one-third as soon as 2035.

Trump’s third run has been the most plutocrat-friendly yet.

In Trump’s first campaign, he broke with other Republican candidates by promising to “do everything in my power not to touch Social Security.” But as I wrote earlier this year, “when it comes to Social Security … Republicans just can’t help themselves,” and Trump has been around a lot of Republicans for a long time now. When he was president, every one of his budgets proposed cutting Social Security. “There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting,” he told CNBC in March. And now his platform is almost purpose-built to run Social Security into the ground.

But it makes sense that Trump would come around on torpedoing a program whose benefits are most important to the poorest Americans. Trump’s “man of the people” image has always been as fake as his tan, and his third run has been the most plutocrat-friendly yet. His 2017 tax cuts, for example, gave windfalls to the wealthiest but saved some scraps for the less well-off. His new platform doesn’t even do that. An analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that Trump’s new tariff and tax cut extensions would only benefit the richest 5% of households, those that make at least $360,000. The top 1% — effectively, the millionaire class — would get an annual tax cut of $36,000. The other 95% of the country would pay more in taxes.

I can’t tell voters whether to prioritize democracy, their freedoms or their pocketbooks. But for all three concerns, the candidate who presents the biggest threat is the same: Donald Trump.

James Downie

James Downie is a writer and editor for BLN Daily. He was an editor and columnist for The Washington Post and has also written for The New Republic and Foreign Policy.

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Andy Beshear hits Newsom for hosting Bannon on his new podcast

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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear took a swipe Thursday at a fellow leading Democrat, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, for hosting one of the most prominent figures in the MAGA movement on his new podcast.

Beshear, whose popularity in a heavily Republican state has turned him into a potential presidential candidate, told reporters that Newsom shouldn’t have opened his platform to Steve Bannon, an outspoken advocate of the “America first” agenda of President Donald Trump.

“I think that Governor Newsom bringing on different voices is great, we shouldn’t be afraid to talk and to debate just about anyone,” Beshear said at a Democratic policy retreat in Virginia. “But Steve Bannon espouses hatred and anger, and even at some points violence, and I don’t think we should give him oxygen on any platform, ever, anywhere.”

The criticism of Newsom, who is widely expected to run for president, amounted to what could be an early skirmish in the next Democratic primary. It also reflects divisions within a party trying to find its footing after Trump’s resounding victory.

The California governor recently launched the podcast, which appears to some degree to be an effort to find common ground with an ascendant conservative movement.

In his debut episode, speaking to Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, Newsom drew widespread attention — and criticism — for suggesting that Democrats were wrong to allow transgender athletes to participate in female youth sports. He was also critical of progressives who have called for defunding the police or who use the gender neutral term “Latinx.”

Newsom defended his approach and the Bannon interview in an email statement on Wednesday, saying it is “critically important” to understand Trump’s movement and how it successfully operated in the last campaign.

In the hour-long episode, Bannon repeated the debunked claims that the 2020 election was stolen amid a discussion that also covered tariffs and taxes.

“I think we all agreed after the last election that it’s important for Democrats to explore new and unique ways of talking to people,” Newsom said.

A spokesperson for Newsom, who plans to have Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on his next episode, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Beshear’s remarks.

The Kentucky governor, who was a featured speaker at the retreat along with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, was not alone in criticizing the Bannon interview.

Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who was one of the few Republicans in Congress to challenge Trump, called it an “insane” decision to host Bannon.

“I am in shock at the stupidity of [Newsom] inviting Steve Bannon on his podcast,” Kinzinger said Wednesday. “Many of us on the right sacrificed careers to fight Bannon, and Newsom is trying to make a career and a presidential run by building him up.”

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Top Illinois Democrat readies a Senate bid — and tells people she has major backing

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Ambitious Illinois Democrats are dreaming about Sen. Dick Durbin’s exit in 2026. The latest contender: the state’s lieutenant governor.

Juliana Stratton, who first took office in 2019, is quietly positioning herself for a Senate bid if Durbin bows out, calling key Democratic figures to ask for support, according to three people with knowledge of her plans, one of whom spoke with her directly and the other two who spoke with members of her team.

And she and her staff have said that she’s already secured the support of Gov. JB Pritzker, the three people said. They were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations and avoid political retribution. She and her team have made clear she expects Pritzker to be heavily involved financially, those people said.

“Juliana continues to keep an open mind about future opportunities, and if she does decide to pursue higher office, she’d be proud to earn the governor’s support while working to build a broad grassroots coalition,” said a spokesperson for the lieutenant governor, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Pritzker, a high-profile governor and potential 2028 hopeful, is already a prolific Democratic donor and party operator, and his vast personal wealth would be a significant boost to any candidate. His money and endorsement could transform the brewing shadow primary that includes several members of the state’s congressional delegation.

His team declined to discuss an endorsement or financial backing in any potential primary. “We’re not going to engage with hypotheticals for a seat that’s not even open,” said a person close to the governor’s political operation granted anonymity to speak candidly.

The governor hand-picked Stratton, then a state representative, to be his running mate in 2017 and he was a guest of honor last month at a fundraising event for her newly formed federal PAC.

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton speaks to reporters as Gov. JB Pritzker, to her left, looks on with other state lawmakers in Chicago on Feb. 10, 2025.

Pritzker, a billionaire heir to the Hyatt hotel empire, could support that PAC as well as donate millions to any other super PACs supporting her campaign. That kind of financial support could make Stratton the front-runner in a primary that would essentially guarantee a spot in the Senate in the heavily blue state.

And if a Pritzker-backed candidate wins the race, it could help position him even more firmly as a major Democratic powerbroker, one whose influence could extend beyond Illinois political circles as 2028 approaches.

Durbin has served in the Senate since 1997 and while many Democrats expect the 80-year-old will retire, those close to him say he hasn’t yet decided.

In a brief interview Wednesday, Durbin acknowledged the lieutenant governor was among the Democrats who are preparing for his possible retirement: “She said if I run she’s not going to.”

Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has been padding his campaign account for years for a possible Senate run. He had amassed $17.1 million by the end of 2024. His fellow Democratic Reps. Lauren Underwood, who flipped a GOP-held district in 2018, and Robin Kelly, the former chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, are also eyeing the seat.

And Illinois Democrats have made a parlor game of wondering what’s next for Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor who just returned from an ambassador stint in Japan. For now, he’s a commentator on BLN.

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‘Be careful about this’: Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts

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‘Be careful about this’: Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts

Republicans will discuss the accounting maneuver with President Donald Trump on Thursday…
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