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State of Congress: House looks to California (and Trump)

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The breakdown of the Senate is all but set. And a handful of races in California — and President-elect Donald Trump’s personnel decisions — seem likely to determine how much wiggle room Republicans will have in their probable House majority.

Arizona Senate: Almost a week after the election, the Associated Press called the open Senate race for Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego over GOP nominee Kari Lake. His lead at the time of the call stands at about 72,000 votes. It’s a crucial win for Democrats, who will now have a minority conference of 47 seats in the Senate.

Pennsylvania Senate: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) chipped away at GOP Sen.-elect David McCormick’s lead, but the Democrat still trails by 35,000 votes after more ballots came in on Monday. The Casey campaign isn’t conceding until the counting wraps, but he faces long odds to erase McCormick’s advantage. The AP called the race for the Republican several days ago. “Ruben Gallego and David McCormick have been invited to attend orientation,” a spokesperson for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday morning.

Battle for the House: Republicans have secured 214 called seats by the Associated Press — and currently lead in races that would give them 222 seats. Some of those may not hold, though. Here’s an overview of some of the most competitive seats:

  • California 27th: Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said in a statement Monday night that he had conceded to Democrat George Whitesides, ensuring a flip of a GOP-held seat. Ballot drops have consistently broken in the Democrat’s favor as the process continues. 
  • California 47th: Democrat Dave Min expanded his lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh to more than 3,200 votes — or more than one percentage point — for this open seat. An estimated 82 percent of votes have now been counted. 
  • California 13th: Democrat Adam Gray continues to chip into Rep. John Duarte’s (R) lead in this contest, which appears likely to come down to the wire. The incumbent currently leads by just under 3,000 votes with 62 percent of ballots counted. 
  • California 45th: A set of ballots dropped on Monday from Orange County broke heavily for Democrat Derek Tran, dropping Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) lead to 3,908 votes. There are an estimated 16 percent of ballots still outstanding in the contest, so this one is likely to be a nail biter. 
  • California 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R) declared victory on Monday as his lead over Democrat Will Rollins stood at more than 7,500 votes. Rollins isn’t conceding yet, though it seems he’d need everything to break his way to overcome Calvert’s lead. 
  • California 22nd: Incumbent Rep. David Valadao’s (R) lead stands at just under 10,000 votes with an estimated 77 percent of ballots counted in this contest against Democrat Rudy Salas. 
  • Arizona 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) lead swelled to nearly 5,000 votes over Democrat Kirsten Engel as more votes are tallied in this swing Arizona district. The AP has not formally called the contest, but this looks like a sure GOP hold. 
  • Alaska at-large: Observers are still waiting for ballots from rural Alaska to be tallied, but incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) faces long odds to make up a 10,000 vote gap with GOP challenger Nick Begich. One thing to watch: If Begich doesn’t get to 50 percent, the state’s ranked-choice voting system kicks in. 

One other thing to watch: Maine officials will run the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures Tuesday at 1 p.m. (watch on YouTube, if you’re into that). Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) leads his GOP challenger Austin Theriault by more than 2,000 votes but came up short of an outright majority, triggering the ranked-choice voting system.

Things could get interesting fast for the GOP majority: Two House Republicans — Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — have already been tapped by Trump for senior roles, opening up special elections for their seats. Waltz’s role doesn’t even require Senate confirmation, so he’ll vacate his seat immediately.

Called races by the AP Monday afternoon: Rep.-elect Cleo Fields (D-La.); Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.)

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Congress

Kiley switches parties, loses committees

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Rep. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who recently registered as an Independent, said in an interview Wednesday he plans to caucus with the House GOP and will seek to regain his committee assignments.

The California lawmaker was formally removed from his panels Wednesday after giving official notice he was switching parties to serve as an Independent and run in a new district after his state redrew congressional maps.

The House GOP Steering Committee will need to approve Kiley’s effort to take back his seats on Education and the Workforce, Transportation and Infrastructure and Judiciary. Kiley told reporters this was “completely expected” and that he looked “forward to being reappointed as an Independent.”

Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.

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Tim Scott to run for reelection to the Senate

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Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will run for reelection in 2028, his campaign told Blue Light News on Wednesday, reversing a promise to serve just two full terms in the chamber.

Appointed by then-Gov. Nikki Haley to serve out the last two years of outgoing Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate term in 2012, Scott had long said that 2022 would mark his final bid for the Senate.

He easily won reelection that year, besting Democratic state lawmaker Krystle Matthews by more than 25 percentage points. Scott then ran for president but abandoned his short-lived bid for the White House before the Iowa caucuses.

He was briefly considered to serve as now-President Donald Trump’s running mate and has since emerged as a key White House ally in the Senate.

“And I’ll say without any question that as I think about my own reelection in 2028, I think about all the lessons I’ve learned on the campaign trail for all these other candidates, and frankly, even in South Carolina,” Scott told the Charleston, South Carolina-based Post and Courier, which was first to report his reelection plans.

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Quick vote on Mullin’s DHS nomination hangs on classified briefing

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Hopes for a quick vote on Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s nomination as Homeland Security secretary hang on questions about secretive travel the Oklahoma Republican undertook as a House member a decade ago that are now being examined by his Senate colleagues.

Mullin was questioned extensively about the matter Wednesday by Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair and ranking member, respectively, of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

Testifying under oath Wednesday, Mullin said he participated in what he described as “official travel” and a “classified trip” as part of a “special program inside the House” that went from 2015 to 2016. He said he was not a member of the House Intelligence Committee at the time and refused to answer further questions outside of a classified setting.

The attention on the matter came after Peters raised questions about Mullin’s past claims suggesting he had traveled to war zones and had first-hand exposure to combat environments despite his lack of a military background.

After the hearing adjourned Wednesday afternoon, Mullin joined Paul, Peters and other members of the committee in the Senate’s classified briefing facility.

“I’m one of these people who think that we silo off too much information from the public,” Paul told reporters after the hearing. “When we’re going to war, they tell eight people, it’s like, ‘Oh, we’ve notified Congress.’ So I don’t think that is adequate.”

“It makes people curious when you say, I’m doing secret missions for somebody, but I won’t tell you who, and only four people in the world know about those,” Paul added.

Mullin said only four people were “read into” the program in question and declined to say publicly what agencies or committees were involved.

“It’s a little difficult for us to go ask about a program that has no name and we have nobody that we know to talk to about it,” Peters said before Mullin agreed to the classified meeting. “So I don’t know how we would begin doing this without your cooperation.”

The questions about the shadowy travel erupted after Mullin’s nomination suddenly turned rocky after Paul questioned his temperament and fitness for office based on his past comments and behavior.

Paul later confirmed he would oppose Mullin’s nomination but said he still intended to hold a committee vote Thursday. To get through the panel with Paul opposed, Mullin will need the support of at least one Democrat.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has suggested he is inclined to support Mullin but declined to confirm Wednesday he would vote for him. Fetterman was among the senators spotted entering the classified meeting following the hearing.

“I’m willing to hold the vote tomorrow, but you brought this up that you were on a super secret mission,” Paul told Mullin at the hearing.

“No, I did not say super secret,” Mullin responded. “I said it was classified.”

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