Congress
State of Congress: House looks to California (and Trump)
The breakdown of the Senate is all but set. And a handful of races in California — and President-elect Donald Trump’s personnel decisions — seem likely to determine how much wiggle room Republicans will have in their probable House majority.
Arizona Senate: Almost a week after the election, the Associated Press called the open Senate race for Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego over GOP nominee Kari Lake. His lead at the time of the call stands at about 72,000 votes. It’s a crucial win for Democrats, who will now have a minority conference of 47 seats in the Senate.
Pennsylvania Senate: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) chipped away at GOP Sen.-elect David McCormick’s lead, but the Democrat still trails by 35,000 votes after more ballots came in on Monday. The Casey campaign isn’t conceding until the counting wraps, but he faces long odds to erase McCormick’s advantage. The AP called the race for the Republican several days ago. “Ruben Gallego and David McCormick have been invited to attend orientation,” a spokesperson for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday morning.
Battle for the House: Republicans have secured 214 called seats by the Associated Press — and currently lead in races that would give them 222 seats. Some of those may not hold, though. Here’s an overview of some of the most competitive seats:
- California 27th: Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said in a statement Monday night that he had conceded to Democrat George Whitesides, ensuring a flip of a GOP-held seat. Ballot drops have consistently broken in the Democrat’s favor as the process continues.
- California 47th: Democrat Dave Min expanded his lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh to more than 3,200 votes — or more than one percentage point — for this open seat. An estimated 82 percent of votes have now been counted.
- California 13th: Democrat Adam Gray continues to chip into Rep. John Duarte’s (R) lead in this contest, which appears likely to come down to the wire. The incumbent currently leads by just under 3,000 votes with 62 percent of ballots counted.
- California 45th: A set of ballots dropped on Monday from Orange County broke heavily for Democrat Derek Tran, dropping Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) lead to 3,908 votes. There are an estimated 16 percent of ballots still outstanding in the contest, so this one is likely to be a nail biter.
- California 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R) declared victory on Monday as his lead over Democrat Will Rollins stood at more than 7,500 votes. Rollins isn’t conceding yet, though it seems he’d need everything to break his way to overcome Calvert’s lead.
- California 22nd: Incumbent Rep. David Valadao’s (R) lead stands at just under 10,000 votes with an estimated 77 percent of ballots counted in this contest against Democrat Rudy Salas.
- Arizona 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) lead swelled to nearly 5,000 votes over Democrat Kirsten Engel as more votes are tallied in this swing Arizona district. The AP has not formally called the contest, but this looks like a sure GOP hold.
- Alaska at-large: Observers are still waiting for ballots from rural Alaska to be tallied, but incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) faces long odds to make up a 10,000 vote gap with GOP challenger Nick Begich. One thing to watch: If Begich doesn’t get to 50 percent, the state’s ranked-choice voting system kicks in.
One other thing to watch: Maine officials will run the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures Tuesday at 1 p.m. (watch on YouTube, if you’re into that). Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) leads his GOP challenger Austin Theriault by more than 2,000 votes but came up short of an outright majority, triggering the ranked-choice voting system.
Things could get interesting fast for the GOP majority: Two House Republicans — Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — have already been tapped by Trump for senior roles, opening up special elections for their seats. Waltz’s role doesn’t even require Senate confirmation, so he’ll vacate his seat immediately.
Called races by the AP Monday afternoon: Rep.-elect Cleo Fields (D-La.); Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.)
Congress
Committee punts on Kash Patel vote as Democrats keep up the pressure
Democrats took advantage of the rules of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday to delay consideration of Kash Patel’s nomination to lead the FBI — but broke some recent precedent in the process.
While lawmakers typically do a one-week punt on Judiciary Committee votes for an variety of reasons — from opposing a bill to nominees — rarely if ever does the panel meet in person to formally approve the delay. Democrats’ vehement opposition to confirming Patel prompted such an in-person gathering.
Democrats had requested a second hearing with Patel to grill him over the recent leadership shakeup at the FBI. They view the staunch Trump loyalist as someone who is prepared to use the pulpit of the FBI to go after political adversaries.
Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) had denied Democrats’ pleas, describing on Thursday the meeting as breaking with the panel’s norms. He has said he intends to hold Patel’s committee vote as early as next week.
Congress
Democratic polling finds Elon Musk is unpopular
House Democrats have a plan to help them win back the working class: turn the world’s richest person into their boogeyman.
They’ve set their sights on holding Elon Musk to account, by attempting to subpoena him and introducing legislation to block him from receiving federal contracts while he holds a “special” role inside the government. They believe the idea of an unelected billionaire wreaking chaos on the bureaucracy will be unpopular with voters — and now they have some data to prove it.
New internal polling, conducted on behalf of House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, found Musk is viewed negatively among 1,000 registered voters in battleground districts. His approval rating is upside down (43 percent approve to 51 disapprove) and his favorability is even worse (42 percent favorable to 51 percent unfavorable).
And the survey was completed between Jan. 19-25 — before some of Musk’s more extreme moves as the leader of the Department of Government Efficiency.
Pollsters asked respondents for their thoughts on “the creation of a government of the rich for the rich by appointing up to nine different billionaires to the administration,” and found 70 percent opposed with only 19 percent in support — a stat that suggests Democrats have landed on a message that could gain traction with swing voters.
That data and focus groups held by House Majority Fund helped bring attacks on the administration into focus: Democrats “shouldn’t chide Musk, Trump, and others for being rich,” the group wrote, but point out Musk’s conflicts of interests as head of DOGE and note that he could undermine key safety net programs to enrich himself at the expense of American taxpayers.
“Participants laud Musk’s business acumen and aren’t opposed to the ideals of DOGE,” HMF found. But “Musk’s relationship with Trump – who they view as inherently pro-big business” makes them wary that billionaire’s cuts “could include programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.”
Democrats have been in the midst of a deep soul search, trying to figure out how they lost the White House, both chambers of Congress and the working-class voters that had once been the backbone of their party. The Democratic resistance has been muted in the open weeks of Donald Trump’s second term as its members struggle to land on a common theme.
But Musk’s frenzied campaign to eliminate waste and lower spending has rocked the federal bureaucracy. And in recent days, Democrats have seized on Musk and other wealthy members of Trump’s administration as a way to make their case to the working class.
The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Impact Research, also found that Musk evoked strong negative feelings. Of the 51 percent who viewed him unfavorably, 41 percent found him “very unfavorable.” Of the 51 percent who disapproved of him, 43 percent did so strongly.
Congress
Capitol agenda: The rundown on reconciliation, Vought vote, Netanyahu visit
Senate Republicans are forging ahead with their budget plan next week as Hill skepticism persists that Speaker Mike Johnson will be able to unify his conference around one mammoth bill.
There’s a lot of movement — here’s where things stand:
The Senate: “It’s time for the Senate to move,” Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham told reporters after emerging from a closed-door conference meeting Wednesday in which he walked Republicans through his fiscal blueprint. Republicans are hoping to vote on it in committee next week.
The resolution is expected to include roughly $150 billion for border security and a similar “range” for defense spending, Graham said. Senate Armed Services is expected to be tasked with coming up with the spending for the military, while Senate Homeland Security and Judiciary will tackle the border spending. Senators plan to tackle tax priorities in a second bill.
Republican senators will be at a private Mar-a-Lago dinner with Trump on Friday, where they plan to discuss budget reconciliation.
The House: GOP leaders are still stalled on a plan, and Republicans are getting antsy. They’re starting to look at other options, our colleagues Benjamin Guggenheim and Meredith Lee Hill report. That includes a short term tax-cut proposal, which would allow Republicans to contain some costs and satisfy some hard-liner demands. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business that he wants permanent cuts, not an extension, as Republicans are discussing.
Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, the House’s top tax writer, is unhappy about Graham moving first: “It’s kind of unfortunate that he’s going to go through a practice that doesn’t accomplish anything.”
At least one conservative appears to be optimistic about this week’s progress, as leadership signals they’re looking for at least $1 trillion in cuts (though senior House Republicans are skeptical they can meet that goal). Rep. Ralph Norman, a key Freedom Caucus and Budget Committee member, said that a budget blueprint could be released by the end of the week.
Norman has so far rejected leadership’s proposals but said Wednesday the current work is “promising.” Rep. Chip Roy, another Freedom Caucus member on the Budget Committee, said he is on board with a 10-year tax cut extension if paired with a $2.5 trillion in cuts.=
What else we’re watching:
- Prayer breakfast: Trump is headed to Statutory Hall at 8 a.m. for the National Prayer Breakfast, which Johnson will host.
- Benjamin Netanyahu heads to Congress: The Israeli prime minister will arrive on Blue Light News amid Republican skepticism and Democratic criticism of Trump’s call to “take over” Gaza and relocate Palestinians. He’s meeting Senate Majority Leader John Thune at 10 a.m. and Johnson at 1:25 p.m.
- Trump’s trade guy: Jamieson Greer, Trump’s pick to be the next U.S. trade representative, will face questions about the president’s dizzying set of actions on trade and tariffs over the past week at his Senate confirmation hearing Thursday morning. Greer served as chief of staff to Trump’s first-term USTR Robert Lighthizer and played a role in transforming the U.S. trading relationship with China.
- Vought vote: Senate Democrats are running out the debate clock on Vought’s OMB nomination and plan to vote unanimously against his confirmation Thursday evening, as Schumer faces rising pressure from within his party to counter Trump however possible. It won’t matter — Republicans are poised to push Vought through.
Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney, Benjamin Guggenheim, Katherine Tully-McManus and Ari Hawkins contributed to this report.
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