Congress
Shutdown threatens to drag on for days as positions harden
Buckle in — this shutdown might last a while.
With federal agencies closed going into a second workweek, there are vanishingly few signs that a bipartisan breakthrough is imminent. To the contrary, all indications are that leaders in both parties are only digging in deeper, and efforts to forge a compromise among the Senate rank-and-file are so far sputtering.
Already some lawmakers are eyeing Oct. 15 — the date when active-duty military members could miss their next paycheck — as the next real deadline for action.
Democrats are insisting they will not vote to reopen the government without some kind of an agreement around soon-to-expire health insurance subsidies impacting more than 20 million Americans, and party leaders have been emboldened by flash polling giving them a modest advantage.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday, said Republicans are “losing in the court of public opinion” and vowed to continue “standing up for the health care of hard-working American taxpayers.” A CBS News poll released Sunday was the latest of several new surveys showing a small majority of respondents taking the side of Democrats in the shutdown blame game.
Republican leaders, meanwhile, continue to insist any discussions about health care can happen only after Senate Democrats reopen the government by passing a House-approved seven-week stopgap.
Speaker Mike Johnson said in an BLN interview Sunday that lawmakers “need the month of October” to hammer out a deal on the subsidies: “There’s a lot of thought that’s gone into that on both sides of the aisle. But we need folks in good faith to come around the table and have that discussion. And we can’t do it when the government is shut down.”
Those talking points have barely shifted from a week ago, when Congress was still on the precipice of plunging into a shutdown. Now, more than five days in, some leaders have their eyes on some key dates they believe could force action.
Most federal workers will miss their first paychecks Friday if agencies don’t reopen by then. Active-duty military members will miss their pay the following Wednesday if Congress does not act.
Speaking to House Republicans on a private conference call Saturday, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise identified that latter date as a key pressure point and urged members to hammer Democrats as it approached.
President Donald Trump also alluded to the sensitivity of troop pay in a speech Sunday to a crowd of sailors and others celebrating the Navy’s 250th anniversary: “I want you to know that despite the current Democrat-induced shutdown, we will get our service members every last penny. Don’t worry about it.”
Trump and his deputies are seeking to add to the pressure by threatening to proceed with mass layoffs of federal employees as the shutdown wears on. Top economic adviser Kevin Hassett described potential firings Sunday as a sort of Sword of Damocles that will hang over Democrats in the coming days.
“We think that the Democrats, there’s a chance that they’ll be reasonable once they get back into town on Monday,” he said on BLN. “And if they are, I think there’s no reason for those layoffs.”
But the layoff threats have only caused Democrats to dig in more. Many inside their ranks are calling the spectre of firings a bluff, arguing Trump has no more legal authority to carry out such firings in a shutdown than he would otherwise and that any such moves would be quickly challenged in court.
And even swing-state Democrats are growing comfortable fighting for the position Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have staked out for them: extending the insurance subsidies ahead of Nov. 1, when open enrollment begins for next year’s plans offered on Affordable Care Act exchanges.
“Twenty-four million Americans are going to have their premiums increase. Millions of them are going to lose their coverage,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said in an interview. “Any answer to the shutdown has to involve fixing that.”
Gallego has been part of a bipartisan group of rank-and-file senators who have been holding informal conversations about finding a way out of the shutdown. But so far the discussions have remained nebulous.
While leadership talking points have hardened, there are tensions inside both parties that could grow over the coming days and weeks and bring matters to a head.
House GOP leaders decided Friday not to return to session this week — driven by both a belief that they have nothing further to do after approving the seven-week stopgap last month and concern that having members of the more boisterous chamber together on Capitol Hill would not help the party stick to its message. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) flatly said the House would only make things “worse.”
“This is not a game,” Johnson told reporters at the Capitol last weekend. “I don’t know why this is so complicated.”
In contrast, some in the speaker’s leadership circle quietly bristled at Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s decision to recess his own chamber for the weekend after another stopgap vote failed Friday, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private conversations.
They privately argued Senate Republicans were giving up an opportunity to keep hammering Democrats. The House’s absence continued to fuel Democratic attacks over the weekend.
“House Republicans continue to be on vacation, spread out across the country and the world and this makes no sense,” Jeffries told reporters Friday. He brought his own members back to town last week but has not made similar plans for this week; House Democrats are set to hold a conference call Monday evening.
In past shutdowns, the majority party has often held votes to reopen particularly popular parts of the federal government in a bid to put pressure on the minority. Senate GOP leaders have no such plans at this point, but Johnson and Thune could bring up legislation to pay troops as the Oct. 15 paycheck deadline nears. Some Republicans, though, still believe Democrats will fold before then.
“We might not even be in a shutdown at that point,” said one senior GOP leadership aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal thinking.
The more profound GOP divide, however, concerns the health insurance subsidies. Republicans from the White House to Capitol Hill leadership suites privately admit the party is increasingly vulnerable on health care but are now committed to an argument that they cannot undertake any negotiations until the shutdown ends while also accusing Democrats of wanting to protect services for undocumented immigrants.
Asked about his position on the subsidies, Trump said Sunday, “We want to fix it so it works.” He said the ACA in general was “not working” and “has been a disaster for the people,” but there is little appetite inside the White House or the GOP generally for reopening the landmark 2010 health law.
Inside the White House, even some of Trump’s most hard-line deputies are coming around to the political realities they face with the coming insurance cliff. Policy officials are readying proposals around the expiring tax credits — one, according to three people granted anonymity to comment on the proposals ahead of an announcement, could include grandfathering in current beneficiaries and cutting off boosted subsidies for new enrollees.
Democrats are dealing with internal splits of their own, with Schumer caught in the middle. Some of his moderate members want to find a quick exit from the shutdown and are exploring a framework deal that could open the government and set up further talks on the ACA subsidies. But others — including Jeffries — want nothing less than an ironclad legislative deal in writing to extend the subsidies first.
“We’ve seen the president — once Democrats and Republicans have agreed on budgets — come along later to rescind those things. So we need something more, much stronger than a promise,” Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) told reporters last week.
Schumer, for now, is content to highlight the divides on the Republican side — and he is pushing Trump to get involved in talks now.
“Johnson and a whole lot of his caucus don’t like the ACA, don’t want to do the extensions. A lot of Republican senators in the Senate do, but they’re not enough,” Schumer said Friday. “You need Johnson, and you particularly need Trump, to get it done.”
Jordain Carney, Nicholas Wu and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.
Congress
The House Ethics Committee wants to do better
Three lawmakers accused of serious ethical lapses have been forced to resign in just over a week, prompting even members of the House Ethics Committee to question whether the panel is up to the task of policing its own.
The committee is at a moment of reckoning as it seeks to prove itself ready, willing and able to root out bad behavior in its ranks. It’s spent the past year and a half rebuilding its reputation after internal disagreements about how to handle an ethics report over ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz spilled into the public and threatened the bipartisan panel’s credibility.
Now, amid the high-profile resignations of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), members who sit on the highly secretive committee are opening up — eager to share their perspectives, acknowledge their limitations and defend their work.
“The reality is we are still too slow, and I believe that we should be moving faster. I’ve expressed some of my recommendations on how we can do that to staff,” said Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.), who joined the Ethics Committee this Congress, in an interview. “I want people to take the Ethics Committee more seriously.”
In extended interviews Monday and Tuesday, Ethics Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) said his panel is hamstrung by the House’s institutional bureaucracy.
“I’ve been asked, you know, could the Ethics Committee, if there were additional resources provided to the committee, would that help us move cases through quickly? And of course, the answer to that is yes,” Guest said. “But you know, it has to be up to leadership. It has to be up to the Speaker and the Minority Leader as to the size of the staff that they would like to see the Ethics Committee command.”
Their comments come amid questions around how Gonzales and Swalwell were able to serve in office for so long unchecked: Both were accused of engaging in sexual misconduct with former staffers, with Swalwell accused of rape. Each stepped down before the Ethics Committee ever had a chance to render findings of fault and enact punishments.
Cherfilus-McCormick also resigned moments before the Ethics Committee was due to meet Tuesday afternoon to consider a punishment for a determination that she illicitly funneled millions to support her campaign, which could have culminated in a recommendation of expulsion.
Now attention is turning to Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who stands accused of numerous violations, including illicitly engaging in government contracts while in federal office and threatening to release a former girlfriend’s nude videos. He has maintained he has no plans to resign as his case before the Ethics Committee has languished without resolution.
In November, the House Ethics panel quietly requested the Office of Congressional Conduct — the quasi-independent office that fields and investigates complaints against members and staff from the public — to drop its probe into Mills, according to a person with knowledge of the ethics process who was granted anonymity to describe the confidential process. That message was transmitted to the OCC the same day the House voted to effectively table a resolution offered by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) to censure Mills for various alleged improprieties.
The OCC was established in 2008 by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and proponents say it provides a necessary, largely independent set of eyes — including on ongoing investigations. Critics view the OCC as an untrustworthy political group; it sat defanged for months this Congress before Speaker Mike Johnson brought a perfunctory measure to the House floor that set up its ability to launch investigations by appointing its board.
Guest declined to discuss details of the Mills case but did not deny that such a request had been made, saying it was standard practice for Ethics to take the reins on a probe from OCC “once an investigative subcommittee is established.”
He conceded the Ethics Committee at times may operate slower than some would like, but its process was deliberate and thorough. “If members want this to be a rush committee where we have two weeks to come up with a report and return that report back to the body, then I’m not the right person to be serving in that room.”
He did say he hoped to discuss with Johnson how to improve the panel’s operations. One continued challenge for members is the loss of jurisdiction once a lawmaker resigns from Congress, which has historically meant the committee stops its investigation and does not release a report of its findings. Guest proposed a new policy where a report could be made public upon a lawmaker’s resignation, meaning bad actors could not always leave office in order to hide from revelations about their misdeeds.
Rep. Mark DeSaulnier of California, the top Democrat on the Ethics Committee, said the committee could better handle cases of sexual misconduct and has spoken to Democratic leadership about modernizing the panel.
“I think on sexual harassment, [the] thing that occurs to me is that there should be one place to go that’s clear to report, that has enough staff, and they’re been very well trained in the subject area, so that people feel like there’s a place they can go and be safe, protected,” he said. “And then there’s a due process that responds in a way that is deliberative, but under the urgency of circumstances.”
This is an area where the Ethics Committee has, in recent weeks, found itself struggling to respond to public pressure. When the House was poised in March to vote on a measure brought by Mace that would have compelled the committee to make information on sexual harassment claims public, Guest and DeSaulnier said in a statement it would have a chilling effect for victims. The resolution was ultimately tabled.
On Monday, the panel released a statement reaffirming its commitment to taking allegations of sexual misconduct seriously — and a list of publicly disclosed sexual misconduct investigations dating back to 1976. Many of those cases were closed without resolution because the member under scrutiny resigned from office before the committee could conclude the case.
One lawmaker who has served on the Ethics Committee, who requested anonymity to describe the panel’s private operations, argued that disclosure of sexual misconduct cases can harm potential victims who may not want their cases brought before the panel in the first place.
This explanation is largely falling on deaf ears from members who want more transparency and accountability, though, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) calling the Monday release of previously disclosed sexual misconduct allegations against House members an inadequate “cleanup job.”
Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), a member of the Ethics Committee and a former federal prosecutor, suggested that improving the panel’s internal systems for handling sexual harassment claims might be a lost cause.
“I think the ugly truth is there’s no process that handles this well that I’ve seen, whether it’s state courts, federal courts, internal corporate investigations, Congress or the Senate,” he said.
Congress
Senate launches budget debate
Senate Republicans opened debate Tuesday on a fiscal blueprint meant to pave the way for passage of a party-line immigration enforcement funding bill later this year.
The Senate voted 52-46 to advance the budget resolution, which Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) unveiled earlier Tuesday. It instructs House and Senate committees to write legislation expected to deliver about $70 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other agencies.
The Senate is expected to give the measure final approval this week before leaving town. The chamber could move to a marathon voting session, known as a vote-a-rama, as soon as Wednesday, though plenty of Republicans are betting that it won’t start until Thursday.
Congress
Cherfilus-McCormick resigns amid ethics investigation
Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) has resigned in the face of corruption charges at home and calls for her ouster in Washington, she announced in a statement on Tuesday.
News broke minutes before the House Ethics Committee was about to meet for a public hearing Tuesday afternoon to determine a punishment for the third-term Democrat, who was charged with stealing $5 million in Covid relief funds.
Cherfilus-McCormick said in a statement the Ethics proceedings did not constitute a “fair process” and that she was “choos[ing] to step aside” rather than “play these political games.”
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