Politics

Senate Republicans face challenges as they aim to keep their majority

Published

12 months ago

May 6, 2025

Brian Kemp’s decision not to run for Senate isn’t just a setback for Republicans in Georgia. It is the latest sign that the GOP’s prospects across the Senate map are far less certain than just a few months ago.

It could turn worse, too, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs cause global market chaos ahead of next year’s midterms and a cloudy economic picture comes into fuller view.

Republicans are still widely expected to keep the Senate. But after Kemp and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu rejected GOP recruitment efforts — and with hardline conservative Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton primarying the establishment Sen. John Cornyn — the GOP is bracing for a more turbulent cycle than once expected.

That’s not to mention other brewing challenges in Louisiana and North Carolina, where MAGA figures are threatening primaries against longtime incumbents.

“Midterm elections [are] generally tough for the party in power,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in a brief interview. “I’m always worried.”

There is cause for Johnson’s heartburn. A senior Senate GOP campaign official, granted anonymity like others in this story to discuss the situation candidly, acknowledged he would have loved for both Kemp and Sununu run — and for Paxton to have sat out a Cornyn challenge. But this person and others involved in GOP recruitment efforts argued the party hadn’t been counting on either of the governors — and had considered them longshot recruits even amid heavy efforts to court them.

In Texas, the senior Senate GOP campaign hand said there will be a “serious effort” to ensure Cornyn is the nominee. The senator recently brought on former Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to burnish his MAGA credentials, according to two people familiar with the decision. GOP senators wanted to keep Paxton out of the race, maneuvering to undercut him before his launch and urging Trump to endorse Cornyn, a close ally of leadership and former chair of the Senate’s campaign arm.

It remains unclear if Trump or the White House will ask Paxton to stand down. Advisers in the White House are aware he’s a political liability — and that Texas is an expensive state to campaign in.

Republicans could have another unwanted primary on their hands in Michigan, where Rep. Bill Huizenga is mulling whether to join former Rep. Mike Rogers in seeking retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat.

As for Georgia, Republicans are deemphasizing any despair over Kemp by pointing to the growing field of potential candidates emerging from both the House and state government.

Democrats are salivating over the possibility that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) could mount the bid she was already flirting with before Kemp announced his plans. But GOP senators continued on Tuesday to downplay concerns that the MAGA firebrand could tank their chances.

“I’m encouraged by the fact there’s a lot of interest,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday in response to a question about whether the GOP could flip the seat if Greene is the nominee. “I expect Georgia will be a competitive race. We’ll be close to the end. But I think it’s a race that we can win.”

Democrats see Republicans’ failure to recruit Kemp and Sununu as evidence that even quality GOP candidates do not want to spend a grueling cycle answering for Trump’s policies — particularly surrounding the economic fallout from his tariffs.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a statement that “every GOP candidate will be forced to answer for Trump’s harmful agenda” in 2026, and the party’s “disastrous start to the year” puts Democrats on the offensive, even as they face a tough map.

“Senate Democrats are positioned to win seats in 2026,” she said.

But Democrats have long been facing a bleak outlook at retaking the Senate — one made even darker by a series of retirements. The party has limited pickup opportunities: Just one seat up next year is held by a Republican in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. And Democrats have four open seats to defend between battleground Michigan and a trio of bluer states.

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement that Republicans broadly “must hold every red seat and chase opportunities in toss-up states like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.” And in Georgia, which Trump won in 2024, “we remain confident a Republican will beat pro-impeachment Democrat Jon Ossoff in 2026.”

Some senators, including former NRSC chair Rick Scott of Florida, suggested Republicans’ recruitment misfires were more telling of how prospective candidates sized up the job in Washington compared to their executive roles back home.

“I don’t think it’s about chances, I think it’s about: they know how difficult this job is,” the former Florida governor said in an interview. Governors “get to be the executive and lead the state. The legislative process is a lot harder, especially up here. I think it probably reflects more how difficult it is to get a result up here.”

And GOP senators defaulted to arguing that Democrats still face a more challenging map.

“I would much rather have the Republican side of this map than the Democrat side of this map,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said in an interview, while acknowledging that it was “unfortunate” Kemp and Sununu passed and that they would have “been very strong candidates.” (Cruz, who won an upset against former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2012, is so far declining to endorse in the primary in his state.)

Still, multiple Republican senators and operatives acknowledge their overall efforts hinge on the economy as they wait to see how Trump’s tariffs land.

“I don’t think there’s going to be a problem — it depends on the economy, obviously,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who has been considering a run for governor rather than seek reelection next year, said in an interview. “It depends on how President Trump does in the next 12 months.”

Jay Williams, an Alpharetta, Georgia-based GOP strategist, said his party could face a further darkening outlook.

“I think ultimately it’s going to come down to the economy and at that time, and how scared Republicans are,” Williams said. “If things economically are going well, you’ll get to the social issues [playing more a deciding factor]. If things are really bad economically, I think it’s gonna be tough for Republicans. Like, I don’t know how you slice it any other way.”

Williams added, “Never underestimate Republicans’ ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.”

Brakkton Booker and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

Politics

Poll: Americans uneasy with AI, crypto even as they spend big on midterms

Published

15 minutes ago

May 3, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Deep-pocketed political groups tied to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency are rapidly reshaping the midterm money landscape — but many Americans are uneasy with the industries behind the spending.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find broad public skepticism about crypto and AI, creating a possible conflict for candidates benefitting from an influx of contributions from the two industries. These groups are pouring millions of dollars into competitive 2026 races to elevate politicians who they believe will support their agendas in Washington.

Meanwhile, Americans have been slow to embrace either technology.

A 45 percent plurality of Americans say investing in cryptocurrency is not worth the risk, even if it can yield high returns, and a 44 percent plurality say AI is developing too quickly, according to the April survey conducted by independent firm Public First.

Nearly half of Americans say they trust a traditional bank with their money more than a cryptocurrency platform, while just 17 percent say the opposite. And two-thirds support lawmakers either imposing strict regulations or setting broad principles for the AI industry.

The results raise an emerging challenge for the industries as their aligned super PACs seek to translate financial might into political influence. Several of these groups are already becoming the most dominant players on the political battlefield, spending heavily for candidates on both sides of the aisle and in some cases rivaling the fundraising of long-established party groups.

It’s too early to say how candidates associated with these groups will fare in November — and the two industries could draw different reactions from voters. Still, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, poll respondents were much less likely to choose candidates backed by a campaign group seeking looser regulations on artificial intelligence than candidates backed by a group advocating for more stringent rules on AI and tech companies. Those polled were also more likely to support a group advocating for policies to protect the environment and prevent climate change.

Skepticism of the industries, those results suggest, could turn into voter backlash if Americans grow fed up with the heavy spending.

“Democrats’ best approach is to make their spending an issue,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has been outspoken about the need for AI regulation. “People do not want AI companies to run them over culturally and economically. They don’t trust crypto.”

Some of the resistance to the AI and crypto groups may reflect broader American dissatisfaction with special interest groups’ spending. A 41 percent plurality say special interest groups have too much influence over politics in the U.S., while 23 percent say they have the right amount. Just 12 percent say they have too little influence.

But the AI and crypto super PACs are on a new level, and the rise of these groups is creating shockwaves throughout politics. These groups could easily become the biggest spender in any House or Senate race that they choose — or several.

Leading the Future, a pro-AI super PAC founded in August, has already raised more than $75 million since its launch, according to recent filings with the Federal Election Commission. Through a network of PACs, it has deployed money on primaries in North Carolina, Texas, Illinois and New York for Democratic and Republican candidates. Fairshake, a pro-crypto group primarily funded by Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and Ripple Labs, is expected to back candidates in both parties and has already spent $28 million across several competitive primaries through its network of PACs.

Both industries are also spending big on Washington lobbyists to ensure their influence continues past Election Day. The AI lobby in particular has ballooned in recent years; OpenAI and Anthropic spent record amounts of money on lobbyists in the first quarter of 2026. The crypto industry has also poured millions into lobbying efforts in recent years to push Congress to enact a sweeping overhaul of how digital assets are regulated.

“The universal thread, from their perspective, is, I think an attempt to maintain a degree of bipartisanship and identify people whom they think will be champions on these issues,” said Jason Thielman, former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, of the crypto-aligned groups.

For the crypto industry, the super PAC spending is aimed at pushing through a market structure bill called the CLARITY Act that is pending in the Senate. Industry executives and lobbyists hope the proposed law would give the industry a stamp of legitimacy from Washington and deliver long-term certainty about how digital tokens will be overseen by market regulators.

The super PAC money acts as both carrot and stick: It could benefit lawmakers facing competitive reelection campaigns in 2026 who back the industry’s goals — and threaten those who stand in the way.

In 2024, a Fairshake-affiliated super PAC spent more than $40 million to help defeat then-incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Brown, a longtime crypto critic, is running again and could again be a major target for the crypto PAC network.

“Crypto groups are absolutely becoming a disruptive force in political spending, including in Ohio,” said former Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, who unsuccessfully challenged Brown in 2018. “But let’s face it, they’re not unique. It’s just the latest version of outside money.”

Fairshake declined to comment.

The AI groups spending big in elections want to ensure their nascent industry is regulated by one set of federal rules, not a state-by-state patchwork, as state legislators rapidly pass new laws regulating the technology. The White House and congressional Republicans have generally supported that goal, but have so far floated light-touch regulations that most Democrats believe don’t go far enough. While the tech sector leans toward the GOP’s deregulatory approach, some lobbyists are open to strong federal rules on AI in exchange for a ban on state laws.

“A national framework will prevent a patchwork of conflicting state laws from harming our ability to win the global AI race against China,” Leading the Future spokesperson Jesse Hunt said in a statement.

But the polling suggests these industries’ efforts may run into broader public skepticism.

More than half of Americans say they have never and would not consider buying or trading cryptocurrency. On artificial intelligence, nearly half of respondents say it is likely to eliminate more jobs than it creates, and a 43 percent plurality say the risks of the technology outweigh the benefits.

“There is a lot of work that needs to be done to help the voting public fully appreciate the national security threat that we face if we are not first in [the AI] race,” Thielman said of AI-affiliated groups. “It’s essential that [the] industry continue to invest very aggressively here, both to increasingly educate the public, educate policy makers because the issue is somewhat mixed from a public opinion perspective.”

The skepticism cuts across partisan lines, with pluralities of voters for both Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 saying that investing in crypto is not a risk worth taking, even if it gives high returns. A near majority of both groups — 49 percent of Harris voters and 46 percent of Trump voters — say AI is developing too quickly.

For now, many of the super PACs tied to the AI and crypto industries remain relatively unknown to many voters, allowing them to fly under the radar.

Americans associate political spending with more established industries, with a 29 percent plurality incorrectly identifying groups representing the oil and natural gas industry as the highest spenders in the midterms — ahead of AI and tech groups or crypto-backed organizations.

Just nine percent of Americans say they have heard of Leading the Future, the pro-AI super PAC, and only three percent have heard of Fairshake, the pro-crypto PAC. Meanwhile, 48 percent of Americans say they have heard of the National Rifle Association and 36 percent say they’ve heard of Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

“Until people realize where the money’s coming in from, a lot of people don’t judge it,” Renacci said. “But I do think if they see somebody is backed by crypto, that’s always going to be a problem, because, let’s face it, the people that I talk to in Ohio, they don’t understand crypto, and most say they’re not comfortable with [it].”