Politics
Senate Republicans face challenges as they aim to keep their majority
Brian Kemp’s decision not to run for Senate isn’t just a setback for Republicans in Georgia. It is the latest sign that the GOP’s prospects across the Senate map are far less certain than just a few months ago.
It could turn worse, too, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs cause global market chaos ahead of next year’s midterms and a cloudy economic picture comes into fuller view.
Republicans are still widely expected to keep the Senate. But after Kemp and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu rejected GOP recruitment efforts — and with hardline conservative Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton primarying the establishment Sen. John Cornyn — the GOP is bracing for a more turbulent cycle than once expected.
That’s not to mention other brewing challenges in Louisiana and North Carolina, where MAGA figures are threatening primaries against longtime incumbents.
“Midterm elections [are] generally tough for the party in power,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in a brief interview. “I’m always worried.”
There is cause for Johnson’s heartburn. A senior Senate GOP campaign official, granted anonymity like others in this story to discuss the situation candidly, acknowledged he would have loved for both Kemp and Sununu run — and for Paxton to have sat out a Cornyn challenge. But this person and others involved in GOP recruitment efforts argued the party hadn’t been counting on either of the governors — and had considered them longshot recruits even amid heavy efforts to court them.
In Texas, the senior Senate GOP campaign hand said there will be a “serious effort” to ensure Cornyn is the nominee. The senator recently brought on former Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to burnish his MAGA credentials, according to two people familiar with the decision. GOP senators wanted to keep Paxton out of the race, maneuvering to undercut him before his launch and urging Trump to endorse Cornyn, a close ally of leadership and former chair of the Senate’s campaign arm.
It remains unclear if Trump or the White House will ask Paxton to stand down. Advisers in the White House are aware he’s a political liability — and that Texas is an expensive state to campaign in.
Republicans could have another unwanted primary on their hands in Michigan, where Rep. Bill Huizenga is mulling whether to join former Rep. Mike Rogers in seeking retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat.
As for Georgia, Republicans are deemphasizing any despair over Kemp by pointing to the growing field of potential candidates emerging from both the House and state government.
Democrats are salivating over the possibility that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) could mount the bid she was already flirting with before Kemp announced his plans. But GOP senators continued on Tuesday to downplay concerns that the MAGA firebrand could tank their chances.
“I’m encouraged by the fact there’s a lot of interest,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday in response to a question about whether the GOP could flip the seat if Greene is the nominee. “I expect Georgia will be a competitive race. We’ll be close to the end. But I think it’s a race that we can win.”
Democrats see Republicans’ failure to recruit Kemp and Sununu as evidence that even quality GOP candidates do not want to spend a grueling cycle answering for Trump’s policies — particularly surrounding the economic fallout from his tariffs.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a statement that “every GOP candidate will be forced to answer for Trump’s harmful agenda” in 2026, and the party’s “disastrous start to the year” puts Democrats on the offensive, even as they face a tough map.
“Senate Democrats are positioned to win seats in 2026,” she said.
But Democrats have long been facing a bleak outlook at retaking the Senate — one made even darker by a series of retirements. The party has limited pickup opportunities: Just one seat up next year is held by a Republican in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. And Democrats have four open seats to defend between battleground Michigan and a trio of bluer states.
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement that Republicans broadly “must hold every red seat and chase opportunities in toss-up states like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.” And in Georgia, which Trump won in 2024, “we remain confident a Republican will beat pro-impeachment Democrat Jon Ossoff in 2026.”
Some senators, including former NRSC chair Rick Scott of Florida, suggested Republicans’ recruitment misfires were more telling of how prospective candidates sized up the job in Washington compared to their executive roles back home.
“I don’t think it’s about chances, I think it’s about: they know how difficult this job is,” the former Florida governor said in an interview. Governors “get to be the executive and lead the state. The legislative process is a lot harder, especially up here. I think it probably reflects more how difficult it is to get a result up here.”
And GOP senators defaulted to arguing that Democrats still face a more challenging map.
“I would much rather have the Republican side of this map than the Democrat side of this map,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said in an interview, while acknowledging that it was “unfortunate” Kemp and Sununu passed and that they would have “been very strong candidates.” (Cruz, who won an upset against former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2012, is so far declining to endorse in the primary in his state.)
Still, multiple Republican senators and operatives acknowledge their overall efforts hinge on the economy as they wait to see how Trump’s tariffs land.
“I don’t think there’s going to be a problem — it depends on the economy, obviously,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who has been considering a run for governor rather than seek reelection next year, said in an interview. “It depends on how President Trump does in the next 12 months.”
Jay Williams, an Alpharetta, Georgia-based GOP strategist, said his party could face a further darkening outlook.
“I think ultimately it’s going to come down to the economy and at that time, and how scared Republicans are,” Williams said. “If things economically are going well, you’ll get to the social issues [playing more a deciding factor]. If things are really bad economically, I think it’s gonna be tough for Republicans. Like, I don’t know how you slice it any other way.”
Williams added, “Never underestimate Republicans’ ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.”
Brakkton Booker and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers called for an end to the “tariff war” with Canada in a new campaign advertisement released on Wednesday, another break from the Trump administration weeks before the midterm elections.
Rogers’ ad comes as Republican campaign groups across the country have entered triage mode in an effort to salvage GOP control in an unfavorable political environment.
“Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now,” Rogers said in the advertisement, which is part of a coordinated spend between his campaign at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
He added, “as Michigan’s senator, I’ll bring both parties together to lower your prices.”
Each year, Michigan does roughly $80 billion in trade with Canada, according to the Michigan Chamber of Commerce.
The new video comes weeks after he put out another advertisement breaking with President Donald Trump, publicly calling for the war with Iran to end “quickly.”
In both commercials, Rogers said that prices are too high and neither mentioned the president by name.
The latest ad is a shift from his previous positioning on trade with Canada.
Last month, Rogers said that some of the tariffs imposed on Canadian goods are needed, as the state’s manufacturing sector has been gutted by cheap foreign imports in the past.
“President Trump is right to put America first — and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution,” Rogers previously said in a press release.
But, he also said he has the pull to end the trade war threatening Michigan.
The White House, along with Rogers’ and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s campaigns, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
National Republicans have spent months trying to rescue Ken Paxton. He’s complicating that effort.
Tensions are brewing with some Republicans after Blue Light News published Paxton’s closed-door comments that “D.C.” Republicans were largely controlling his race.
“He is welcome to raise his own money and say whatever he wants,” said one Republican involved in the Paxton rescue effort, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “In fact, if he did that, he’d probably be winning right now and we wouldn’t need to spend all this money.”
Senate Republicans and top operatives didn’t want to be in this position in the first place. Many had warned that the Trump effort to unseat Sen. John Cornyn and back Paxton in the primary would cost Republicans hundreds of millions to drag Paxton across the finish line in the general election. Cornyn and Senate GOP groups spent millions of dollars on ads during the primary attacking Paxton over his series of scandals and warning he was a flawed candidate.
Since then, the usual crowd of never-Paxton types has expanded into a wider circle of frustrated Republicans who are irked by the effort it’s taking to boost the scandal-plagued Senate candidate. And Paxton saying he doesn’t control his campaign messaging — alongside his remarks that President Donald Trump’s midterm convention hurt him politically — isn’t helping.
Paxton also complained about the drag of the Iran war and high prices on his campaign in another closed-door recording that Axios published Wednesday.
“Beggars can’t be choosers. He can try to raise federal money at a level that is necessary to save his candidacy at this point but his arms don’t reach that high,” said a Texas-based GOP consultant who’s closely monitoring multiple races. “As usual, he communicates something that is unhelpful, that is undisciplined, that is politically self-harmful and like most things, lacks any gratitude whatsoever.”
The top Senate GOP super PAC, Trump’s aligned MAGA Inc. operation and other Republicans are pumping more than $200 million into the race to salvage Paxton’s campaign against Democrat James Talarico. Trump allies say they have worked hard to shore up Paxton, suggesting they’ve pushed donations toward the campaign and the larger GOP Super PAC effort to avoid disaster in the Lone Star state. Trump plans to travel to Texas for the second time Wednesday to boost Paxton.
Paxton allies have brushed off his latest closed-door comments, saying he was referring to GOP super PACs he’s not allowed to coordinate with as a candidate.
The Paxton campaign did not respond to a request for comment, though campaign adviser Nick Maddux said in response to POLITICO’s initial report of the audio that “AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority which is why he’s on the ground every day.”
But another Republican, a Trump ally working on the fundraising effort, said the national intervention isn’t overstepping. That person said the messaging guidance from the national GOP is standard for major Senate races and that Paxton “needs the help.”
One national GOP operative involved in the Texas Senate race noted that the attorney general’s lackluster fundraising early on left him vulnerable to Talarico’s attacks throughout the summer — especially over Paxton’s series of “self-inflicted” scandals, which have made him “toxic” with key voting blocs in the deep red state.
“We warned them about this,” the GOP operative said.
The Texas Senate race has sucked up oxygen, despite Trump winning the state in 2024 by double digits. And, the Senate map has kept expanding as Democrats have made gains in other typically red states, forcing Republicans to make critical decisions about where to allocate resources.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republicans have said there are dedicated donors who are backing their effort to help Paxton, as they also try to shore up red seats across the map.
Paxton, in the September meeting with donors, acknowledged Washington’s influence.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign … it’s all coming — you know — from D.C.,” Paxton told donors during a small fundraising event last month, according to the audio.
Top GOP officials have tried to downplay Paxton’s comments. The White House referred Blue Light News to the RNC when asked for comment. The RNC argued Paxton, in the audio, was referring to the super PACs he can’t coordinate with as a candidate.
“This is fake news nonsense mixed with lazy reporting demonstrating a clear ignorance about how super PACs work. President Trump has called Ken Paxton the single greatest attorney general in history and has been clear he will do whatever it takes to make him the next senator from Texas,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement.
Trump, when speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, said he hadn’t seen Paxton’s latest comments. He added that his midterm travel blitz has helped Paxton and other Republican candidates.
“Ken’s doing much better now that I — everybody is — since starting three, four days ago, since starting the rallies. It’s brought a whole new awareness to how great the Republicans are doing, how great the economy is doing,” Trump said, touting investments and manufacturing.
The president last week traveled to Texas and told the crowd that Paxton is a “pain in the ass sometimes” and later acknowledged he’s “a little controversial.” But, he also warned the Texas crowd that Talarico would be “such a horror to your state,” adding, “we need the votes and I’m here for that, and I think we’re going to win.”
Vance also traveled to Texas, where he called Paxton “amazing attorney general and your next senator.”
Still, other Republicans have simply grown resigned to the state of the race, with Paxton needing all the aid he can get.
“There is only so much we can do,” one senior Senate GOP aide said. “And I feel like we’re doing a lot.”
The Paxton campaign told POLITICO it raised $18 million in the third quarter across the campaign and his joint fundraising committees. That’s roughly double his second-quarter total, though the campaign did not provide its cash-on-hand numbers, and Talarico has yet to release his fundraising haul.
Paxton also announced a $20 million ad buy last week — a significant single media investment in the race. But he’s had to rely heavily on Trump, MAGA Inc. and the top Senate GOP super PAC to bail him out.
Republicans have largely leaned on the Senate Leadership Fund, rather than the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC, to keep Paxton afloat. SLF is spending a Texas record-breaking $131 million sum through Oct. 12 and has pledged to continue to spend more through the final weeks of the election.
MAGA Inc. is increasing some spending for Paxton and is expected to hit near $45 million by Oct. 12.
If Paxton were to lose, Trump’s reaction and whether he chooses to distance himself from the rescue effort will be driven by media coverage, said a former Trump fundraiser.
“If the media coverage related to election night and the autopsy a couple days afterwards is brutal towards Trump, like, horrible economy, inflation’s not that much better than the last year of Joe Biden’s … he will lash out,” the person said. “But if the narrative is, it’s a midterm presidential, this is what normally happens … he’ll move on as fast as he can and never talk about Ken Paxton again. It just depends what the coverage looks like post the November election.”
The 2026 House map continues to move further onto GOP terrain. But while Democrats are dreaming big, the GOP insists they can hold the majority.
Score talked to the DCCC’s Deputy Executive Director Will Van Nuys and the NRCC’s Communications Director Will Kiley.
The two operatives chose four under-the-radar races where they’re feeling good about their underdog candidates pulling off an upset. If these races flip, they know they’re having a good night.
“We’re not saying that this won’t be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand,” Kiley said.
“Our job is to make sure that we raise as much as we can to expand this battlefield as far as we can,” Van Nuys said.
DEMOCRATS’ FOUR ‘SLEEPER’ SEATS
CO-05 (Trump +9.1)
Rep. Jeff Crank won this seat by 14 points in 2024 in his third bid for Congress. But Colorado Springs is “trending Democrats’ way” with fast growth of younger and Hispanic populations. That shift, along with Trump’s unpopularity, has Democrats hoping for a flip, Van Nuys says.
IA-02 (Trump +10)
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate has left this Northeastern Iowa seat open for the taking, Van Nuys argues. Frustrations with beef imports, rising gas prices and the popularity of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand have Democrats hoping state Rep. Lindsay James can turn this seat blue.
KY-06 (Trump +15)
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is making it his personal mission to elect his former adviser and federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and flip Senate nominee Rep. Andy Barr’s Lexington-based seat. Dembo released an internal poll in late September showing him with a five-point lead.
WI-01 (Trump +4.5)
Van Nuys says emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman is a “perfect contrast” in the blue-collar district to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, an attorney and former plastics manufacturing executive.
FOUR DISTRICTS WHERE THE GOP THINKS IT CAN SURPRISE
NM-02 (Trump +1.8)
Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell ran four cycles in a row. Now the GOP is betting on a fresh face: Greg Cunningham, a tattooed, motorcycle-driving Marine vet and ex-cop who’s running ads highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the Latino-heavy district.
Republicans are spending big on the race.
Kiley called Cunningham a “badass.”“Greg is a candidate who can continue to capture those voters and keep them coming our way,” he said.
NY-03 (Trump +4.3)
Republican former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri came within four points of defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in 2024, and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman coasted to reelection last fall. Now Blakeman is running for governor, and Kiley says the statewide campaign can push LiPetri over the top in a rematch.
The MAGA Inc.-affiliated No Going Back PAC has dropped a whopping $6 million into the district, with $2 million more from NRCC, though the CLF trimmed its own ad buy there on Tuesday.
“Last cycle, LiPetri came incredibly close with minimal to no outside investment,” Kiley said. “Now he has the investment and institutional support to get the job done.”
AZ-01 (Trump +3.1)
The DCCC’s preferred candidate lost to former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah in the primary in this Phoenix and Scottsdale-area seat, and Kiley says that’s opened the door for the GOP to hold the seat.
“The DCCC is lying if they said that Amish is the candidate they wanted,” Kiley said.
Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker and NFL commentator Jay Feely, and Kiley says Feely’s unique resume will boost him over the edge. Both parties are spending huge sums, with more than $31 million combined earmarked for the race.
NV-03 (Trump +0.7)
Republican Marty O’Donnell was the composer for the music in the popular video game Halo. He’s using that success to pour $3 million into his bid to flip this Las Vegas-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
The personal investments, along with outside GOP spending, eliminate a cash advantage past Democrats enjoyed in the district, Kiley said.
“The resources are coming in to flip this seat because the GOP ecosystem can see how big of an opportunity it is,” he said.
A version of this article first appeared in Blue Light News Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to Blue Light News Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
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