Politics
Poll: Americans uneasy with AI, crypto even as they spend big on midterms
Deep-pocketed political groups tied to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency are rapidly reshaping the midterm money landscape — but many Americans are uneasy with the industries behind the spending.
New results from The POLITICO Poll find broad public skepticism about crypto and AI, creating a possible conflict for candidates benefitting from an influx of contributions from the two industries. These groups are pouring millions of dollars into competitive 2026 races to elevate politicians who they believe will support their agendas in Washington.
Meanwhile, Americans have been slow to embrace either technology.
A 45 percent plurality of Americans say investing in cryptocurrency is not worth the risk, even if it can yield high returns, and a 44 percent plurality say AI is developing too quickly, according to the April survey conducted by independent firm Public First.
Nearly half of Americans say they trust a traditional bank with their money more than a cryptocurrency platform, while just 17 percent say the opposite. And two-thirds support lawmakers either imposing strict regulations or setting broad principles for the AI industry.
The results raise an emerging challenge for the industries as their aligned super PACs seek to translate financial might into political influence. Several of these groups are already becoming the most dominant players on the political battlefield, spending heavily for candidates on both sides of the aisle and in some cases rivaling the fundraising of long-established party groups.
It’s too early to say how candidates associated with these groups will fare in November — and the two industries could draw different reactions from voters. Still, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, poll respondents were much less likely to choose candidates backed by a campaign group seeking looser regulations on artificial intelligence than candidates backed by a group advocating for more stringent rules on AI and tech companies. Those polled were also more likely to support a group advocating for policies to protect the environment and prevent climate change.
Skepticism of the industries, those results suggest, could turn into voter backlash if Americans grow fed up with the heavy spending.
“Democrats’ best approach is to make their spending an issue,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has been outspoken about the need for AI regulation. “People do not want AI companies to run them over culturally and economically. They don’t trust crypto.”
Some of the resistance to the AI and crypto groups may reflect broader American dissatisfaction with special interest groups’ spending. A 41 percent plurality say special interest groups have too much influence over politics in the U.S., while 23 percent say they have the right amount. Just 12 percent say they have too little influence.
But the AI and crypto super PACs are on a new level, and the rise of these groups is creating shockwaves throughout politics. These groups could easily become the biggest spender in any House or Senate race that they choose — or several.
Leading the Future, a pro-AI super PAC founded in August, has already raised more than $75 million since its launch, according to recent filings with the Federal Election Commission. Through a network of PACs, it has deployed money on primaries in North Carolina, Texas, Illinois and New York for Democratic and Republican candidates. Fairshake, a pro-crypto group primarily funded by Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and Ripple Labs, is expected to back candidates in both parties and has already spent $28 million across several competitive primaries through its network of PACs.
Both industries are also spending big on Washington lobbyists to ensure their influence continues past Election Day. The AI lobby in particular has ballooned in recent years; OpenAI and Anthropic spent record amounts of money on lobbyists in the first quarter of 2026. The crypto industry has also poured millions into lobbying efforts in recent years to push Congress to enact a sweeping overhaul of how digital assets are regulated.
“The universal thread, from their perspective, is, I think an attempt to maintain a degree of bipartisanship and identify people whom they think will be champions on these issues,” said Jason Thielman, former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, of the crypto-aligned groups.
For the crypto industry, the super PAC spending is aimed at pushing through a market structure bill called the CLARITY Act that is pending in the Senate. Industry executives and lobbyists hope the proposed law would give the industry a stamp of legitimacy from Washington and deliver long-term certainty about how digital tokens will be overseen by market regulators.
The super PAC money acts as both carrot and stick: It could benefit lawmakers facing competitive reelection campaigns in 2026 who back the industry’s goals — and threaten those who stand in the way.
In 2024, a Fairshake-affiliated super PAC spent more than $40 million to help defeat then-incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Brown, a longtime crypto critic, is running again and could again be a major target for the crypto PAC network.
“Crypto groups are absolutely becoming a disruptive force in political spending, including in Ohio,” said former Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, who unsuccessfully challenged Brown in 2018. “But let’s face it, they’re not unique. It’s just the latest version of outside money.”
Fairshake declined to comment.
The AI groups spending big in elections want to ensure their nascent industry is regulated by one set of federal rules, not a state-by-state patchwork, as state legislators rapidly pass new laws regulating the technology. The White House and congressional Republicans have generally supported that goal, but have so far floated light-touch regulations that most Democrats believe don’t go far enough. While the tech sector leans toward the GOP’s deregulatory approach, some lobbyists are open to strong federal rules on AI in exchange for a ban on state laws.
“A national framework will prevent a patchwork of conflicting state laws from harming our ability to win the global AI race against China,” Leading the Future spokesperson Jesse Hunt said in a statement.
But the polling suggests these industries’ efforts may run into broader public skepticism.
More than half of Americans say they have never and would not consider buying or trading cryptocurrency. On artificial intelligence, nearly half of respondents say it is likely to eliminate more jobs than it creates, and a 43 percent plurality say the risks of the technology outweigh the benefits.
“There is a lot of work that needs to be done to help the voting public fully appreciate the national security threat that we face if we are not first in [the AI] race,” Thielman said of AI-affiliated groups. “It’s essential that [the] industry continue to invest very aggressively here, both to increasingly educate the public, educate policy makers because the issue is somewhat mixed from a public opinion perspective.”
The skepticism cuts across partisan lines, with pluralities of voters for both Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 saying that investing in crypto is not a risk worth taking, even if it gives high returns. A near majority of both groups — 49 percent of Harris voters and 46 percent of Trump voters — say AI is developing too quickly.
For now, many of the super PACs tied to the AI and crypto industries remain relatively unknown to many voters, allowing them to fly under the radar.
Americans associate political spending with more established industries, with a 29 percent plurality incorrectly identifying groups representing the oil and natural gas industry as the highest spenders in the midterms — ahead of AI and tech groups or crypto-backed organizations.
Just nine percent of Americans say they have heard of Leading the Future, the pro-AI super PAC, and only three percent have heard of Fairshake, the pro-crypto PAC. Meanwhile, 48 percent of Americans say they have heard of the National Rifle Association and 36 percent say they’ve heard of Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
“Until people realize where the money’s coming in from, a lot of people don’t judge it,” Renacci said. “But I do think if they see somebody is backed by crypto, that’s always going to be a problem, because, let’s face it, the people that I talk to in Ohio, they don’t understand crypto, and most say they’re not comfortable with [it].”
Michigan is ground zero for the Democratic Party’s ideological war.
Its marquee Senate race and two of its House primaries on Tuesday — in Michigan’s 7th and 13th Congressional Districts — will provide another crucial test of whether progressives can not only keep up their winning streak in safe-blue seats but also break through in battlegrounds crucial for control of Congress.
The stakes for the Democratic Party are huge: A strong progressive performance, especially a victory by Abdul El-Sayed in the high-profile Senate race, would significantly bolster the left’s argument that its message resonates widely — setting the stage for a bruising fight over the party’s ideological direction ahead of November.
And any Democrat eyeing a White House bid in 2028 will be watching closely for clues about what kind of message can win in Michigan, the perennial battleground that was recently selected as an early Democratic presidential primary state, giving it outsized influence on the nominating process.
“If Abdul El-Sayed is successful next Tuesday, this will mean the hyper-progressive socialist movement has percolated into one of the most crucial general election states,” said Adrienne Elrod, a longtime Democratic strategist who was senior adviser and spokesperson for former Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign.
“This means Democratic candidates running for President in 2028 will have to be even more mindful of how to approach this sector of the electorate.”
A critical Senate battleground
Buoyed by a string of primary victories this spring — in both safe and competitive districts from California to Colorado to Maine — progressives now face a major proving ground as they try and capture a statewide sweep.
Backed by progressive stalwarts like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), El-Sayed faces moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in a bitter and costly feud for the Democratic nomination to take on former Rep. Mike Rogers, the unopposed Republican running for the open seat. The contest to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, is one of a handful of seats Democrats must defend in their longshot bid to take back control of the Senate.
A victory by El-Sayed, who has leaned into his image as a progressive firebrand on social media, could provide a new playbook for Democrats in battlegrounds.
“If El-Sayed wins the primary, there’s no real test case for a hard-edged, base-first, super online candidate succeeding at the state level — at least not in a swing state,” said Democratic strategist Matt McGrath, who was former President Barack Obama’s 2012 Michigan communications director.
Public polling in the closing stretch shows El-Sayed with a double-digit lead over Stevens. The contest has attracted millions in outside spending and intense attention from Washington, as the candidates spar over campaign finance, Israel and electability — and what that means in a state Harris lost by fewer than 100,000 votes in 2024, even as Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin beat Rogers, who is back for redemption, that same year.
“There’s all this handringing across the country about electability,” said Jeff Weaver, a progressive Democratic strategist. “The same people who are carping about electability have lost the White House twice to Trump.”
Progressive power in the purple 7th District
The fight for Michigan’s 7th District has parallels to the Senate contest: It’s a true battleground — it went for President Donald Trump by just over 1 percentage point in 2024 — that will be vital to Democrats’ bid to flip the lower chamber in November.
Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence is rising in the polls, as two more-moderate Democrats fight over the future of that wing of the party and in turn risk splitting the vote. Whoever emerges from the primary will face GOP Rep. Tom Barrett.
Lawrence has received the backing of Sanders and El-Sayed and has centered much of his campaign on fighting data centers, an issue progressives think they can own in the run-up to 2028, when they’re betting the rapid rise of artificial intelligence will make policies around its growth crucial to a winning campaign.
The prospect of progressive wins in the battlegrounds has already unnerved some centrist Democrats: “If he wins, we’re done,” one operative told POLITICO recently, describing Lawrence’s chances of beating Barrett in the general election as “highly unlikely.”
Others warn that even without a sweep, having El-Sayed atop the ticket alone could be a boon for Republicans up and down the ballot in a deeply purple state.
Centrists are “quite concerned and they should be,” said Michigan-based Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond. “Regardless of whether Will [Lawrence] wins that primary or not, if Abdul is the Senate nominee for Democrats, [Republican Reps.] Tom Barrett and Bill Huizenga are getting reelected.”
Democratic splits roil safe-blue 13th District
Michigan’s 13th District has become another proxy between the party’s progressive and establishment wings, this time for a safe-blue seat.
The race pits the Sanders-backed state Rep. Donavan McKinney against the incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar, who has the support of House Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar.
The divide burst further into public view last week when some members of the Congressional Black Caucus, including progressive Reps. Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Ayanna Pressley (Mass.), broke with party leadership and endorsed McKinney, who is Black.
Thanedar’s district was one of the first that Justice Democrats, a progressive group that challenges incumbents, decided to target this year. The group helped recruit McKinney and has spent nearly $1 million backing him.
“When we look at Michigan, its diverse voter base, its status as a Midwestern state with a big working class population, it’s a barometer of where the party is going and what voters want,” said Ravi Mangla, the spokesperson for the Working Families Party, a progressive group that has backed Lawrence and McKinney’s challenge of Thanedar.
Republicans, meanwhile, are eagerly watching on.
“The popcorn machine is warming up for next Tuesday night’s grand finale of Michigan Democrats’ messy, expensive primaries full of surging socialists,” NRCC spokesperson Zach Bannon said in a statement.
Lisa Kashinsky and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
He’s eating barbecue. He’s winning over Joe Rogan. He’s challenging his opponent to mano-a-mano televised faceoffs.
James Talarico is determined not to let his GOP challenger Ken Paxton’s and Republicans’ attacks on his masculinity define him in what has emerged as one of the party’s loudest tactics in the crucial Senate race.
The Texas Democrat is working to position himself as a candidate focused on issues he says men actually care about instead of speculation about his diet, sexuality and religious beliefs.
“They’ve even called me a vegan, and those are fighting words in the state of Texas,” Talarico said at a San Antonio rally this summer.
“Nowadays our culture tells young men that greatness is tearing other people down, is trolling and owning and dominating. But my dad showed me what real greatness looks like. He inspired me to serve,” Talarico said at another rally in Houston, referencing how his dad often mowed the lawn of his elderly widowed neighbor without asking.
Talarico’s attempt to reclaim the masculinity narrative by confronting the issue head-on could help propel him to flip a seat Democrats haven’t held in nearly four decades, and which could determine control of the Senate next year.
It comes as both parties, in Texas and across the U.S., are fighting to win male voters — especially young, Black or Hispanic men — who in 2024 lurched to the right to help Republicans take control of the White House and Congress. The issue of masculinity has also been turbo-charged during Donald Trump’s second term, with the president hosting UFC fights on the White House lawn and his Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pushing for testosterone testing in the military.
If Talarico prevails, he could ultimately serve as a model for other Democratic candidates to connect with male voters or fend off Republicans who try to use issues of masculinity as a cudgel.
“Democrats need to be prepared for more of these attacks to come and understand how to handle them,” Lucas Holtz, a senior political adviser at the centrist think tank Third Way, said in an interview.
Republicans think they’ve hit a nerve with Texas voters about Talarico’s manhood. Members of the party have targeted the 37-year-old public school teacher-turned-state legislator for past statements endorsing a vegan lifestyle, suggesting that “God is nonbinary” and opposing legislation that erodes transgender rights.
“If you look at him, this is a guy who’s publicly stated pretty bizarre things — that God is nonbinary,” said Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) in an interview. “He’s a total weirdo, and I think Texas voters recognize that.”
Talaricosaid recently his comment on God’s gender was meant to be “deliberately provocative” and that he meant God is beyond gender.
Republicans are also seizing on Talarico’s unmarried status and smaller physical build to paint the Democratic candidate as weak and effeminate. Some have falsely called him gay or transgender. Paxton’s very first ad of the general election campaign implied Talarico has low testosterone levels. And a conservative PAC released an AI-generated video of Talarico as an actress from “The Sound of Music” singing about wanting to give hormones to children.
Talarico opposes gender affirming care for minors, his spokesperson JT Ennis said.
“In Texas, there’s a certain level of tough guy-ness that we all pretend to have in ourselves, and that we like in our elected officials,” said Vinny Minchillo, a Texas-based Republican admaker who is not involved in the race. “If you push that the right direction, that especially does not sit well with Hispanic men and Black men.”
Paxton’s campaign and his allies think Talarico’s previous comments on these issues put him out of touch with voters in both parties.
“Texans can spot an audition for a new identity and they know he is weak and woke on core Texas values,” Paxton adviser Nick Maddux said in a statement. Maddux pointed to moves Talarico has made during the campaign he said shows flip-flopping, such as wearing a Texas flag shirt after calling the American flag a “complicated symbol.”
“He is undoubtedly hurting Democrats,” Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said in an interview about Talarico.
Some Hill Democrats say Republicans’ fixation on Talarico’s manhood is an attempt to distract from Paxton’s weaknesses.
“They fear his strength, especially since he’s running against the most notorious scumbag in American politics,” Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) said.
Paxton has faced an ethics complaint that was later dropped, a Justice Department corruption investigation for which he was not charged and securities fraud charges which were ultimately dismissed in an agreement. He was also impeached by the Texas GOP-led House for bribery and abusing his public office, which he called a “sham” coordinated by liberals, and was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.
Paxton also has a history of using cultural issues to his advantage, such as stoking anti-Muslim fears through campaign messaging.
Meanwhile, Talarico’s campaign says they’re not seeing evidence that the masculinity barbs are gaining traction, pointing to robust Democratic gains among Hispanic voters while also arguing that polling shows a toss-up general election contest. The campaign did not share specific data to support that its messaging to male voters was lifting Talarico’s polling with that demographic.
Talarico has focused on issues he says affect many men — like lowering housing costs, stopping corporate landlord rent manipulation and curbing the influence of billionaire mega-donors in politics.
“Ken Paxton is picking these fights no one cares about to distract from the fact that he has no solutions to lower the cost of gas, groceries, or healthcare,” Ennis said in a statement. “Real men serve others, weak men serve themselves.”
Talarico also has tried to appeal to young men and Hispanic voters by placing ads during World Cup and NBA Finals games. And he’s challenging Paxton to a series of televised debates, in which the two could spar on manhood and other issues. Paxton’s team said he’s agreed to the debates but they’re still negotiating logistics and terms.
The Democrat’s campaign also said it is trying to facilitate similar opportunities to Talarico’s pivotal appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast last year, which boosted his national profile to millions of young men who make up Rogan’s core audience. The podcaster — who during the interview exclaimed “you need to run for president,” to Talarico — has continued to compliment the Texas Democrat and defend his views, including during a conversation with Vice President JD Vance last month.
Talarico has also fired back with his own jabs. He responded to Paxton calling him “Talafreako” by putting the phrase on T-shirts and selling them on his campaign website.
And Talarico turned on Paxton’s low-testosterone message by telling MS NOW “I don’t think guys my age are really concerned about that kind of thing,” adding, “You’ve got these old guys lathered up in their fake tans throwing cheesy nicknames at each other.”
Some public opinion research shows Talarico’s strategy fits the 2026 moment.
The growing cost-of-living crisis — exacerbated by the deeply unpopular military conflict in Iran — and Trump’s low approval ratings may mean the GOP’s masculinity attacks fall flat this cycle, Luke Warford, founder and director of Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan public opinion research firm, said in an interview.
The top issues for men and young men in Texas center on affordability, the cost of living, economic growth and job creation, according to an aggregate of data shared with Blue Light News from the group’s latest surveys in May and June.
“We’ve got a really different scenario now where the Republicans are in power in Texas and nationally, so they own the things that are broken,” Warford said. “There is a deep anti-establishment sentiment in this country and a deep frustration with the status quo particularly among men, and that could be a much stronger political force than the cultural attacks.”
Matt Angle, founder of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic-aligned political action committee in Texas, said “there’s no attack that should be ignored,” but that Democrats are in a good position.
“Ken Paxton is no he-man. He’s a thin-chested, soft spoken, weak guy,” Angle said.
One warning sign for Talarico: a swath of male voters perceive him as too progressive, said Holtz, the Third Way adviser. Holtz noted a recent poll of men by the group in which 49 percent of respondents said the candidate was “too far left.”
In focus groups held by the centrist think tank last year and this year, young men overwhelmingly pointed to the Republican Party as the better representative of men’s priorities. Respondents in those groups associated Democrats with more social and cultural issues while tying Republicans with financial independence, finding a partner and starting a family.
On Capitol Hill, some Democrats are calling the conversation in Texas an opportunity to revisit the party’s historic avoidance of issues that are important to men, which have made them more susceptible to criticism.
Rep. Marc Veasey, a moderate Texas Democrat, said in an interview that “Democrats, overall, need to do a better job of expressing some of the concerns that young men have.”
“When we have people on our side who are attacking things like nuclear family structure and expecting everybody to fall in line, that’s pure insanity,” Veasey said. “There’s this expectation with Democrats that men are just going to follow along, and they’re not. We haven’t figured out how to talk to them.”
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said in an interview that Democrats tend to display examples of “traditional masculinity” rather than the “stereotypical masculinity” Republicans are attacking them for not adhering to. He pointed out he served in the Marines, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) played football and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was an astronaut.
“What voters know is truly masculine is a politician who is going to take care of their needs and be a protector and be a provider for the family,” Gallego added.
“When a man can’t support his family because inflation is so fucking high, they’re not going to care about who is on the ballot that is, quote unquote, ‘not masc enough.’”
Michigan Republicans haven’t had a better shot to win the governorship in over a decade. Deciding who should take it is turning into an ugly, hyper-online brawl.
With widespread name recognition and an endorsement from President Donald Trump, Rep. John James appears poised to be the GOP nominee ahead of Michigan’s primary Tuesday.
But the West Point graduate once thought of as a rising star within the national GOP is facing stiff resistance from an outspoken grassroots wing of the state party, which is rallying around his sole remaining competitor.
“I think you’re gonna be surprised when this race comes down,” said Oakland County GOP Chair Vance Patrick, who endorsed businessperson-turned-outsider candidate Perry Johnson in the closing weeks of the race. “It’s getting really interesting.”
As James and Johnson careen toward a contest to decide who faces likely Democratic nominee and current Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the campaigning is getting weird. Johnson has launched increasingly caustic and personal attacks against James, who has led the field since he entered the race.
And Johnson cuts an odd figure for a leading contender: He is perhaps best known for his quixotic 2024 presidential bid, which came after a 2022 gubernatorial campaign fell apart amid a nominating petition scandal.
But state party officials and grassroots activists have also shared publicly and privately a litany of complaints about James: resentment over too many debates missed early on in the campaign, not enough visits to specific parts of the state, frustration over him giving away a battleground House seat Democrats are targeting this cycle to run for a new job after losing two previous statewide elections.
Nonetheless, even his detractors insist that Republican voters will rally around the eventual nominee. Patrick, whose county party — which includes parts of metro Detroit that fall within James’ district — received $13,350 from the Johnson campaign, said Republicans “will join lockstep behind the guy that wins the primary.”
The intra-party consternation comes at a pivotal moment for Michigan Republicans, who’ve watched eight years of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s leadership — and yawning statewide victories — with disdain.
Meanwhile, Democrats appear ready to elevate Benson, who has built a $6.4 million war chest as of mid-July — albeit dwarfed by Johnson’s personal wealth — thanks to a prolific fundraising advantage. The secretary of state appears to be en route to easily beat Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson for the nomination.
And Trump winning the state in 2024 is no assurance for Republicans, who saw their Senate candidate falter to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in the same year. Now, the GOP is facing an uphill battle amid rising gas prices brought on by a deeply unpopular war in Iran that is causing headaches for the party nationwide.
Finding a nominee who can win over independents and compete in the mother of all swing states is paramount, some Republicans say, and they’re not sure James is it.
“There’s a large amount of Republicans that do not like him,” said Hassan Nehme, a former vice chair of the Michigan GOP and current candidate for state Legislature, referring to some voters’ hesitance about James’ voting record.
The Johnson campaign has launched vitriolic personal attacks at James throughout the race. Johnson, who is white, has referred to James, one of the few Black Republicans in Congress and the sole Black candidate in the race, as a “DEI candidate,” and accused him of playing the “race card” during a recent debate. James, in turn, has characterized Johnson as “desperate.”
The campaign has also turned to promoting an unsubstantiated rumor, while providing no evidence, about James’ personal life, reposting social media posts that attack James.
Tori Sachs, a senior adviser for the James campaign, characterized Johnson’s attacks in a statement as “lies” that are exposing “a desperate, career candidate who has no grasp on reality and no friends that he didn’t buy.”
“Never-Trumper Perry Johnson has burned through over $70 million attacking Trump and James with lies, only to crash toward his third loss in three cycles,” she said.
Such plays are emblematic of Johnson’s campaign strategy, which has leaned heavily online and embraced a constituency of right-leaning grassroots organizers. On social media, he’s employed artificial intelligence to construct sometimes bizarre ads, including a six-minute long odyssey in which he doggedly pursues James on foot, bus and helicopter in order to debate him.
Brian Szmytke, a campaign spokesperson for the Johnson campaign, reiterated in a statement that “John James is unelectable in a general election,” listing several attacks levied during the campaign.
The scrappy turn in the campaign intensified when former state Attorney General Mike Cox, who was also courting voters skeptical of the GOP establishment, dropped out of the race in mid-July. But even before then, Republican officials across the state had expressed doubts about James.
That the Johnson campaign has attacked James on such personal terms points to the campaign’s dire straits, said John Sellek, a Michigan-based Republican political consultant.
“We’ve turned a corner since Cox got out, where the Perry Johnson campaign has been throwing haymakers on what look like less than prime issues because they know the end is here,” Sellek said.
That’s all despite a huge spending advantage for the self-funding Johnson.
He has spent over $32 million getting on the airwaves, while James’ campaign has spent $2.4 million, according to advertising insight firm AdImpact.
“All the typical support mechanisms are moving toward James, even though he is being wildly outspent,” said Sellek.
Before appearing in a set of televised debates held in July, James had abstained from participating in several debates held earlier in the primary. James at the time defended skipping the events, saying he was more focused on uniting the party than bickering with candidates. But some voters took his absence as a sign of disengagement from the grassroots.
Daire Rendon — the Republican Party chair for Michigan’s 1st District, which covers the entire Upper Peninsula and swaths of northern Michigan — suggested that James doesn’t connect with voters in her rural region.
Rendon, a former state representative who was charged for her alleged involvement in a scheme to unlawfully access voting machines after the 2020 election, noted that “we don’t see John James much.”
“They are going to gravitate towards candidates who spend time learning about [the Upper Peninsula], and who show up,” said Rendon, who pleaded not guilty and whose case is ongoing.
Detractors have also criticized James for running for governor in the first place, viewing the contested House seat he’s leaving behind as more valuable amid the GOP’s slim majority and as Republicans stare down an unfavorable midterm cycle. Trump also initially took issue with his gubernatorial ambitions, grousing about it publicly, before endorsing him in June.
“You don’t blow off 80 million in an investment to get you elected to Congress, and in one term leave,” said Muskegon County GOP Chair Tim Cross. (James was first elected to the House in 2022.)
James, however, also appears to have a slew of grassroots support himself. Several Michigan Republicans touted James in interviews with Blue Light News, including former state legislator and Macomb County Prosecutor Peter Lucido, who said James is “a proven leader, and he’s gonna continue to go ahead and govern and lead.”
Public and private polling appears to indicate that James remains comfortably in the lead. An internal poll, shared with Blue Light News, of more than 700 likely primary voters conducted for the Cox campaign in the days before he dropped out in mid-July showed James leading with 36 percent points, with Johnson trailing at 23 percent and Cox at 21 percent.
Likely Cox voters split for Johnson over James as their second choice, 44 percent to 38 percent respectively.
James, the Cox campaign wrote in a memo to donors and supporters attached to the polling, “benefited by hundreds of millions of dollars targeted toward voters, specifically in Southeast Michigan, over the past several election cycles, coupled with the endorsement of President Donald Trump, creating a scenario where James’ lead is largely insulated.”
Now, the James campaign is rolling out its line of endorsements ranging from state representatives, senators and conservative activists, with Trump’s endorsement as a crown jewel.
The president brought James on stage at a late July rally outside Detroit, where the candidate asserted, falsely, for the first time that Trump won Michigan in 2020. James had previously said that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, though he said earlier this cycle that he was “screwed” that year when he lost his Senate bid.
“You have to win,” the president told James onstage Monday. “You have to win.”
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