Politics

Senate Democrats face ‘tough map’ as a slate of retirements hit Dem-friendly states

Published

2 years ago

March 12, 2025

Senate Democrats’ already difficult 2026 map just got even worse.

After losing the majority last November, the party faced a very narrow path out of the wilderness. Then Sen. Jeanne Shaheen piled on. The New Hampshire Democrat announced her retirement Wednesday, forcing the Democrats to defend a third Senate seat in 2026, in addition to retiring Sens. Gary Peters’ and Tina Smith’s seats in Michigan and Minnesota.

“It’s no secret that we face a tough map,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said, though he remained upbeat: “I don’t think you can read into losing one senator in a state where I think we will do very, very well.”

There might be more departures for Democrats to come, though in much bluer states: Sen. Dick Durbin is on retirement watch in Illinois and Sen. Michael Bennet is eyeing a possible run for governor in Colorado.

Durbin, who is 80, declined to share his own reelection plans on Wednesday but acknowledged that the party’s 2026 Senate map is “challenging.”

Democrats’ biggest challenge was always going to be a limited number of pick-up opportunities as they try to claw their way back to power: Sens. Susan Collins’ and Thom Tillis’ seats in Maine and North Carolina, respectively, are their best options. And, critically, winning both wouldn’t win back control of the Senate on their own — and neither are slam dunks for Democrats.

It all amounts to a reality check for the embattled party, even with the next election more than a year and a half away. While they’ve got less of a headwind than they had last year, when they lost four seats, 2026 is in many ways shaping up to be a stepping stone to their actual shot of flipping the Senate in 2028.

“The map is better in ‘26 than ‘24. It’s not as good in ‘26 as it will be in ‘28,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said in a brief interview.

Republicans, for their part, view Democrats’ string of retirements as an acknowledgement that their GOP majority is likely to prevail during the midterms, even though the party is at real risk of losing their narrow grip on the House.

“Another one!” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who chairs the Senate GOP campaign arm, wrote on X. “Shaheen’s retirement is welcome news for Granite Staters eager for new leadership. New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing common-sense Republicans — and will do so again in 2026!”

There could be competitive primaries for both parties across all three states. Democrats likely enter all three open-seat contests as at least light favorites; former Vice President Kamala Harris carried both New Hampshire and Minnesota, and while President Donald Trump won Michigan, Republicans have not won a Senate race there in decades.

Still, all three retirements this early in the cycle have Republicans crowing.

“It’s hard to beat an incumbent,” said Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) “Statistically, it’s very, very difficult. So it gives Republicans an opportunity.”

Republicans are also helped by few Maine Democrats relishing the idea of challenging Collins, a rare GOP moderate, and that’s especially true because the state will have an open governor’s race. And North Carolina’s Senate races have long foiled Democrats, even though some of Trump’s allies are flirting with trying to recruit a primary for Tillis. The GOP’s third potential headache – Louisiana – is a less of a risk in November because even if Sen. Bill Cassidy loses, the party is confident that whoever replaces him will be a Republican.

Democrats still believe they could get a tailwind that boosts their chances of picking up more seats next year: Namely Donald Trump and Elon Musk, whose efforts to dramatically reduce the size of the federal government have roiled Washington and even sparked public grumbling from fellow Republicans.

“I happen to believe the dynamic is going to be pretty good. That’s a huge factor,” Kaine said, while acknowledging things are a “long way out” from the election.

David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Senate Democratic campaign arm, said in a statement that the midterm map “is ripe with offensive opportunities Democrats can take advantage of” plus “Republicans have more seats to defend, and they’re doing it in a hostile political environment.”

All three of the open Democratic seat states have a strong bench of Democratic House members elected in the 2018 wave. Privately, some Democratic operatives are relieved that older senators are bowing out during Trump’s first midterm, when the party in power traditionally loses seats. It’s perhaps a more opportune time to get fresh blood into the Senate Democratic caucus, which is still helmed largely by longtime members.

And the party has already been in an active recruitment effort as they shore up their roster for the midterm elections.

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich) is taking steps toward a run, as is Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow for a possible bid in Michigan.

In Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is seriously considering a run.

In New Hampshire, Democrats could face a crowded primary, something they are hoping to avoid. Rep. Chris Pappas, who’s won four terms in a purple district, is considering a run for Shaheen’s seat, as is first-term Rep. Maggie Goodlander. If Pappas doesn’t run, former Rep. Annie Kuster, who retired from the House earlier this year, told Blue Light News she would “take a serious look at the race.”

Republicans are also gearing up for a fight. Former GOP Sen. Scott Brown (who represented neighboring Massachusetts), has been taking steps to stand up another bid in New Hampshire as he looks to make a political comeback after losing to Shaheen in 2014. Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who shrugged off Republicans’ attempts to recruit him to run against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in 2022, is apparently reconsidering for 2026.

“We’re going to need every dollar that can be raised to retain the seat — and an expensive primary I feel would not be helpful,” said veteran New Hampshire Democratic strategist Jim Demers.

Kelly Garrity contributed to this report

Politics

How SNAP could crunch the midterms

Published

5 hours ago

October 10, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Under the political radar, the country’s food stamps program is undergoing a slow-motion transformation. The ramifications could bubble up into the midterms.

Changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program from Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act are rolling out in phases, from tougher work requirements to restrictions on non-citizens. Food stamp rolls already shrank by more than 5 million people nationwide as of this summer, as the hardest-hit state, Arizona, saw an outright majority of its food stamp recipients lose benefits.

The latest alteration clicked into place Oct. 1, when the share of administrative costs states and counties have to pay rose to 75% from 50%. An even bigger financial shift looms in a year, when states with high payment error rates will have to assume some benefit costs for the first time, a scenario that’s already rippling through state and local budget planning.

It all adds up to a new era in federal-state relations — and in the size and nature of the welfare state.

In a year when affordability worries top voters’ priority lists and grocery prices strain their wallets, Democrats think the SNAP shift gives them an opening to make Republicans pay politically after the GOP used social safety net cuts to food aid and Medicaid to help pay for last year’s tax cuts.

“People are getting kicked off these programs at the very moment they’re going to the polls to vote,” House Agriculture ranking member Angie Craig (D-Minn.) said. “I sure wouldn’t want to be a Republican headed into the November ballot.”

But Republicans think they have a compelling story to tell voters, trying to right-size a program that spends millions of dollars on erroneous payments. The SNAP changes align with the Trump administration’s broader push to crack down on fraud and make the government smaller or more efficient. Implementing stricter work requirements for welfare often polls well, and trying to move people toward work gets at the root causes of poverty, they argue.

“The premise is simple: Let’s make sure that this program is preserved for those truly in need, and that we aren’t squandering taxpayer dollars,” a senior USDA official told Playbook in an interview. “And let’s make sure that if folks are able-bodied, they are work training or volunteering for 20 hours per week.”

That doesn’t mean Republicans in competitive races are putting SNAP and Medicaid cuts front and center on the campaign trail. When they tout last year’s megalaw, new tax breaks typically lead the messaging. And 10 frontline GOP House campaigns didn’t respond to requests for interviews about how they can win on SNAP.

At the state and county level, some governments are scrambling to prepare for a massive cost shift, hitting at the same time as significant Medicaid changes. The resulting bureaucratic jumble has contributed to some of the SNAP losses this year, as recipients struggled to get through overtaxed call centers, some states cut staff, and others tightened their processes.

“It really sets up a change in the federal responsibility, and I view it as a slippery slope,” warned Barbara Guinn, New York’s commissioner of the Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance. Her state is staring down a possible $1 billion added burden next year, though they’re advocating for a repeal of the benefits change. “Once they implement any kind of cost shift, I think it will be easier for them to take similar actions in the future.”

Whether to delay next year’s cost shift has already generated tensions over the farm bill in the Senate, where Democrats are demanding a longer postponement than Republicans’ offer of one year. Some Minnesota counties are considering significant property tax increases to pay for the extra costs, Craig said: “We’re going to be pushing hard for a two-year delay — at the request of, frankly, many of my Republican county commissioners, not just Democrats.”

Conservatives see the new calculus as a long overdue change to improve efficiency and incentivize program integrity. Improper payment rates are high in many states (though they comprise both over-payments and under-payments, and error rates are different from fraud). Those that reduce errors enough won’t have to take on paying the benefits. And even opponents of the changes think lower error rates are a worthy goal. SNAP rolls often ebb and flow with the economy, and the recent drop could reflect the job market pulling people out of need — or the removal of people who shouldn’t have been getting food stamps in the first place.

“There needs to be some level of accountability,” the USDA official said. States with high error rates “need to start to have skin in the game.”

But at a time when many households are already squeezed by inflation, the SNAP changes have correlated with higher numbers of Americans turning to charities to ward off hunger. The surge in people losing food aid came more quickly than expected. The unemployment rate hasn’t meaningfully changed. And the vast majority of large food banks in a recent NBC survey said they were grappling with higher demand, in part due to food stamp changes. Another rule kicking in the day after the midterms could lead to many retailers being bumped out of SNAP as places where low-income people can use their benefits.

For state governments, a set of sweeping operational changes are now underway to conform to new policy demands, often requiring more money or staffing at already under-resourced offices. And the budgetary stakes to get error rates lower are sky-high.

“It’s a really complicated, nuanced and confusing time for states who are trying to administer SNAP,” said Lauren Kallins, a senior legislative director at the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures, which has advocated for a delay in the benefits costs shift.

Politics

David Plouffe warns Dems: Don’t take North Carolina for granted

Published

6 hours ago

October 10, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

National Democrats are increasingly shifting their attention away from North Carolina’s Senate race as polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper ahead, eyeing once long-shot races as possible pickups. But a veteran Democratic strategist who helped deliver the party’s last presidential victory in the state is urging donors not to take a win for granted.

David Plouffe, who managed behind Barack Obama’s narrow 2008 victory in North Carolina, urged Democratic donors and supporters not to grow complacent in the final weeks of Roy Cooper’s Senate campaign, according to audio obtained by Blue Light News.

“I think that this race … has I think been the best run race in the country,” Plouffe said on the call. “But that doesn’t mean that we can rest easy.”

He warned about North Carolina’s relatively fixed partisan makeup as a purple state, making it difficult for a candidate to dramatically expand their base of support.

“There’s certain states that elections happen within a bound, and this one will be that way as well,” he said.

In public polling, Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley, who has struggled to boost his name recognition against the much better-known former governor. And as Democrats grow increasingly bullish on their candidate’s chances of flipping the seat — one of four pickups they need to take control of the Senate — national groups have begun shifting their money and attention to other contests, including most recently to Kansas.

But Plouffe said North Carolina needs to remain a priority.

“We have to win the ones we have to win,” he said on the call to Cooper’s finance committee.

Just days before Plouffe’s remarks, Senate Democrats’ top super PAC pulled back some of its spending in North Carolina, following a much bigger retreat by Republicans’ top super PAC in the state.

Plouffe cautioned that North Carolina has historically been a tough state for Democrats at the federal level, especially in recent years. The party hasn’t won a Senate race there since 2008, when Obama became the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state, winning by fewer than 15,000 votes. He lost the state in 2012.

“Even though we carried the electoral votes back then, we only did so by I think 14,000 votes. So it was our narrowest victory,” Plouffe said. “And in 2012, we tried to win North Carolina again with the help of so many people on this phone, and we just couldn’t get it done. And that tells you how difficult the state is.”

Plouffe also cast the stakes of Cooper’s race as extending beyond November, arguing that a Cooper victory could provide a blueprint for the party’s eventual 2028 presidential nominee.

“Democrats need to compete and win in North Carolina in 28,” he said. “And it’s one thing to look how a governor can win a state. The best route, the best scout that you receive, is how someone in a federal race won in a tough state, and that can show you the way.”