Senate Democrats’ already difficult 2026 map just got even worse.

After losing the majority last November, the party faced a very narrow path out of the wilderness. Then Sen. Jeanne Shaheen piled on. The New Hampshire Democrat announced her retirement Wednesday, forcing the Democrats to defend a third Senate seat in 2026, in addition to retiring Sens. Gary Peters’ and Tina Smith’s seats in Michigan and Minnesota.

“It’s no secret that we face a tough map,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said, though he remained upbeat: “I don’t think you can read into losing one senator in a state where I think we will do very, very well.”

There might be more departures for Democrats to come, though in much bluer states: Sen. Dick Durbin is on retirement watch in Illinois and Sen. Michael Bennet is eyeing a possible run for governor in Colorado.

Durbin, who is 80, declined to share his own reelection plans on Wednesday but acknowledged that the party’s 2026 Senate map is “challenging.”

Democrats’ biggest challenge was always going to be a limited number of pick-up opportunities as they try to claw their way back to power: Sens. Susan Collins’ and Thom Tillis’ seats in Maine and North Carolina, respectively, are their best options. And, critically, winning both wouldn’t win back control of the Senate on their own — and neither are slam dunks for Democrats.

It all amounts to a reality check for the embattled party, even with the next election more than a year and a half away. While they’ve got less of a headwind than they had last year, when they lost four seats, 2026 is in many ways shaping up to be a stepping stone to their actual shot of flipping the Senate in 2028.

“The map is better in ‘26 than ‘24. It’s not as good in ‘26 as it will be in ‘28,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said in a brief interview. 

Republicans, for their part, view Democrats’ string of retirements as an acknowledgement that their GOP majority is likely to prevail during the midterms, even though the party is at real risk of losing their narrow grip on the House.

“Another one!” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who chairs the Senate GOP campaign arm, wrote on X. “Shaheen’s retirement is welcome news for Granite Staters eager for new leadership. New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing common-sense Republicans — and will do so again in 2026!”

There could be competitive primaries for both parties across all three states. Democrats likely enter all three open-seat contests as at least light favorites; former Vice President Kamala Harris carried both New Hampshire and Minnesota, and while President Donald Trump won Michigan, Republicans have not won a Senate race there in decades.

Still, all three retirements this early in the cycle have Republicans crowing.

“It’s hard to beat an incumbent,” said Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) “Statistically, it’s very, very difficult. So it gives Republicans an opportunity.”

Republicans are also helped by few Maine Democrats relishing the idea of challenging Collins, a rare GOP moderate, and that’s especially true because the state will have an open governor’s race. And North Carolina’s Senate races have long foiled Democrats, even though some of Trump’s allies are flirting with trying to recruit a primary for Tillis. The GOP’s third potential headache – Louisiana – is a less of a risk in November because even if Sen. Bill Cassidy loses, the party is confident that whoever replaces him will be a Republican.

Democrats still believe they could get a tailwind that boosts their chances of picking up more seats next year: Namely Donald Trump and Elon Musk, whose efforts to dramatically reduce the size of the federal government have roiled Washington and even sparked public grumbling from fellow Republicans.

“I happen to believe the dynamic is going to be pretty good. That’s a huge factor,” Kaine said, while acknowledging things are a “long way out” from the election.

David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Senate Democratic campaign arm, said in a statement that the midterm map “is ripe with offensive opportunities Democrats can take advantage of” plus “Republicans have more seats to defend, and they’re doing it in a hostile political environment.”

All three of the open Democratic seat states have a strong bench of Democratic House members elected in the 2018 wave. Privately, some Democratic operatives are relieved that older senators are bowing out during Trump’s first midterm, when the party in power traditionally loses seats. It’s perhaps a more opportune time to get fresh blood into the Senate Democratic caucus, which is still helmed largely by longtime members.

And the party has already been in an active recruitment effort as they shore up their roster for the midterm elections.

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich) is taking steps toward a run, as is Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow for a possible bid in Michigan.

In Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is seriously considering a run.

In New Hampshire, Democrats could face a crowded primary, something they are hoping to avoid. Rep. Chris Pappas, who’s won four terms in a purple district, is considering a run for Shaheen’s seat, as is first-term Rep. Maggie Goodlander. If Pappas doesn’t run, former Rep. Annie Kuster, who retired from the House earlier this year, told Blue Light News she would “take a serious look at the race.”

Republicans are also gearing up for a fight. Former GOP Sen. Scott Brown (who represented neighboring Massachusetts), has been taking steps to stand up another bid in New Hampshire as he looks to make a political comeback after losing to Shaheen in 2014. Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who shrugged off Republicans’ attempts to recruit him to run against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in 2022, is apparently reconsidering for 2026.

“We’re going to need every dollar that can be raised to retain the seat — and an expensive primary I feel would not be helpful,” said veteran New Hampshire Democratic strategist Jim Demers.

Kelly Garrity contributed to this report