CHICAGO — The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is making a nearly $22 million bet in Illinois that its money, if not its policy views, can still hold sway in Democratic politics.

In three of the four Illinois House races it’s targeting, AIPAC appears to be using shell PACs to largely conceal where that money is coming from rather than spend from its main super PAC vehicle, United Democracy Project. Like in other recent contests, their ads focus on anything but Israel.

But AIPAC appears at risk of inadvertently helping the candidate most hostile to its views in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky — just as it did in New Jersey last month. The group has taken a sharp tactical shift in recent days, pivoting from attacking a Jewish candidate who has criticized Israel and focusing instead on a Palestinian-American candidate who has been more outspoken.

Interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials, candidates and strategists — including both supporters and critics of Israel — revealed growing concerns about AIPAC’s interventions. Strategists warn that AIPAC’s attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, the grandson of a Holocaust survivor, created an opening for progressive social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh, a Palestinian-American who is a vocal critic of Israel and appears to have late momentum in the race, over AIPAC’s preferred candidate, more moderate state Sen. Laura Fine. In the past week, the group has pulled down all of its anti-Biss messaging, but it could prove too late.

“There’s been a strategy shift,” said a person directly familiar with AIPAC’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “Our primary goal in Illinois is to prevent potential ‘Squad’ members from being elected to Congress.”

Tuesday’s primary will be the first test of AIPAC’s political muscle in the 2026 primary season after amassing nearly $100 million in its warchest, even as polls show more and more Democrats have negative views of Israel — and of the group itself.

“AIPAC may deliver another candidate who is plainly not on their agenda and … the concerns about their interventions within the primary electorate are only going to intensify,” said David Axelrod, a longtime Chicagoan and former senior adviser in President Barack Obama’s administration. “These ads are not branded as AIPAC for a reason, so there’s a recognition that they are a controversial presence in Democratic primaries.”

AIPAC recently spent $2 million to sink former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) in a special election primary. Malinowski, a pro-Israel moderate who would not support unconditional aid to Israel, lost to Analilia Mejia, a progressive organizer who has said Israel committed genocide in Gaza. The move infuriated centrist Democrats, who saw it as a spectacular self-induced fumble — and are worried it may be happening again.

“No one wants to see another New Jersey 11 … and everyone should be concerned about it happening,” said one Democratic donor adviser close to AIPAC who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics.

The organization has become increasingly controversial on the left for its full-throated support of Israel’s war in Gaza and is facing a new layer of hostility in the wake of Israel’s joint attack with the U.S. in Iran. Among Democrats, 62 percent think America is too supportive of Israel, compared with just 22 percent who think the support is about right and 8 percent who think it’s not supportive enough, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released last week.

Democratic candidates and strategists expect AIPAC to intervene in a range of House primaries in the coming months, as well as the Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota. They’re watching to see how the group’s interference plays with voters amid the backdrop of the war.

“You’re going to see more of this unfortunately” across the country, said former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a noted Democratic strategist now weighing a run for president, of the influx of outside spending — from AIPAC to crypto groups. “Illinois is literally the first stop on the way to an ugly future, where billionaires will be the dominant players and candidates will be pawns in their world.”

In Illinois, an AIPAC-aligned super PAC called Elect Chicago Women, had spent heavily against Biss on TV and digital ads, while also spending more than $4 million on TV ads and mailers boosting Fine. In recent days, another AIPAC-aligned group, Chicago Progressive Partnership, put out ads attacking Abughazaleh and propping up another progressive in the race, Bushra Amiwala, in an apparent effort to split the vote.

Local strategists noted the abrupt shift when the Biss attacks stopped earlier this month.

“It looks like they’re changing their tactics” after the New Jersey backfire, said an Illinois Democratic lawmaker, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “Is there evidence that [AIPAC] is adapting and taking lessons from the last election? Yes.”

Biss, for his part, predicted there would be “backlash” to AIPAC’s moves in Illinois in future primaries.

“They’ve chosen to make clear that it’s unacceptable to them to have members of Congress who don’t believe in a no strings attached blank check of military aid to the current Israeli government, no matter what they do in Gaza,” Biss said “So that’s what people in the district and around the country will be interested to see what the outcome is.”

Abughazaleh sees the shift to attack her as a sign that AIPAC is “panicking” to control the race. “They’re realizing that they didn’t take us seriously, and that people aren’t looking for the status quo. So they are panicking,” she said in an interview.

Fine has opposed adding conditions to U.S. aid to Israel, though she has expressed general frustration at the role of “dark money” and the lack of transparency from political action committees, saying it’s “a big problem in our political system.”

AIPAC’s super PAC declined to comment on its involvement in Illinois, including its use of pop-up super PACs to filter funds to candidates. AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa said in a statement, “Our members are focused on building strong bipartisan support for the U.S.-Israel partnership in the 120th Congress.”

The group is also spending heavily for its preferred candidates in the races to fill seats left open by Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi, who are running for the Senate, and Danny Davis, who is retiring.

AIPAC’s allies are not confident about their chances in Kelly’s district. The group is backing Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, but former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) has been bolstered by more than $1 million in spending from a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC. Plus, he has sky-high name recognition, especially in the wake of the recent death of his father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.

Pro-Israel Democrats feel more confident their preferred candidates can win in two other races.

Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin has benefited from nearly $5 million in positive ads from AIPAC’s main super PAC, United Democracy Project, in a crowded 13-candidate primary for Davis’ seat. State Rep. La Shawn Ford has strong name recognition in the district and Davis’ endorsement, but he has struggled to keep up with fundraising.

In Krishnamoorthi’s district, moderate former Rep. Melissa Bean has benefited from nearly $4 million in supportive messaging from the “Elect Chicago Women” group that’s also supporting Fine in the 9th.

AIPAC’s critics argue that the group’s moves in Illinois, particularly concealing the funding sources of its super PACs, demonstrate that “they themselves understand how toxic they are,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of the progressive J Street group, which bills itself as “pro-Israel, pro-peace.”

“In every part of their political work, they’re doing this surreptitiously,” he added.

Jessica Piper and Andrew Howard contributed reporting.