Politics
Polls show voters blame GOP for shutdown. But they don’t trust Dems with the economy.
Democrats’ hardline opposition to rising health care costs isn’t earning them voters’ trust on economic issues — a disconnect that lays bare the party’s challenge heading into next year’s midterms.
Voters blame Republicans more than Democrats for the federal government shutdown, according to a review of polling conducted after services shuttered. An Economist/YouGov survey of 1,648 Americans showed 41 percent hold the GOP accountable for the lapse in federal funding, compared to 30 percent who point a finger at Democrats and 23 percent who hold the parties equally responsible. A 2,441-person CBS News/YouGov survey also found Americans blame Republicans more than Democrats — 39 percent to 30 percent — with 31 percent faulting both. And a Harvard/Harris poll demonstrated 2,413 voters impugned Republicans more than Democrats by 6 points.
Those same voters, however, delivered the GOP a 4-point advantage when asked which party they trust more on economic issues. And a survey from Democratic-aligned firm Navigator Research showed 1,000 registered voters faulting Republicans for the shutdown by 11 points, but giving them a 2-point advantage on inflation and cost of living.
That dichotomy underscores an electoral hurdle for the party locked out of power: Even as Democrats hold the line over expiring health care subsidies that could send millions of Americans’ insurance prices soaring, voters still favor Republicans on the economy and cost of living.
“Are we going to get all the working class back? Probably not,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who is seeking reelection in a redrawn Texas district while facing federal bribery charges. “[But] I see an opening here. … And we need to jump on that and just really focus and repeat over and over and over that we Democrats are interested in bringing costs down.”
The next challenge for his party, he added: “Make sure people understand we are a viable alternative.”
The shutdown-polling paradox has shown up in surveys for months, as Democrats struggle to move voters who are souring on President Donald Trump and his party’s handling of the economy and inflation into their corner. And it underscores the uphill battle Democrats face in wresting power from Republicans, even as they narrow their scattered messaging to affordability.
Frontliner Rep. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) called her party’s shutdown stance “an important step” toward convincing voters Democrats can tackle rising costs.
“And it’s a crucial step to take right now … to make sure that people don’t see their premiums go up exponentially,” said Gillen, who is defending the Long Island swing seat she flipped last year. “But then it needs to be part of a broader discussion to show that we are on the side of the American people and we care about the economic pain they’re feeling and we have a concrete plan.”
The party is still hashing out the particulars of that plan, which depending on the candidate ranges from pitching a hardscrabble background to railing against a rigged economy and vilifying the billionaires that benefit from it.
Right now, Democrats are trying to leverage their minimal power to force Republicans to stop Affordable Care Act subsidies from expiring at the end of the year, attempting to squeeze out a policy win on a top cost-of-living issue as they scramble to regain working-class voters.
The political winds have been shifting in Democrats’ favor on the economy. Trump’s net approval rating on the subject has nosedived since the start of his second term, polling averages show. Voters routinely rank inflation as one of their top issues, but disapprove of his handling of it. The latest CBS/YouGov poll showed three-quarters of adults don’t think Trump is doing enough to lower prices — one of his 2024 campaign trail pledges. Labor Department statistics show the job market is slowing.
Despite signs of economic distress, Republicans consistently enjoy a polling advantage on the economy. And Liam Kerr, who co-founded the centrist WelcomePAC, warned that Democrats won’t be able to erase it through a single stand on health care costs.
“You can’t just do it one time and all is forgotten,” Kerr said. “Playing against type requires even more effort.”
Nevertheless, Democrats remain confident they can reverse their heavy losses in 2024 by drilling down on voters’ cost-of-living concerns, according to interviews with half a dozen congressional candidates.
They cast their party’s shutdown play as part of a broader strategy that ranges from hammering Republicans over tariffs that could drive up prices for consumers and for businesses, to battling utility companies over rising bills. And they believe the slate of working-class candidates the party is putting up for House and Senate seats, from a firefighter in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley to a waitress in western Wisconsin, can convince voters that Democrats care about blue-collar Americans who have turned toward Trump in recent years.
They’re getting backup from Democrats’ national campaign arm, which on Friday launched a five-figure digital-and-billboard ad campaign and organizing effort to alert voters to the pending increase in their premiums.
Still, shutdowns carry risks for both parties, especially the longer they drag on. The Trump administration on Friday began firing federal workers, which could increase pressure on both sides to bring their standoff to an end. And some polls already show voters think Democrats should cave and reopen the government; a sentiment expressed by nearly two-thirds of voters in the Harvard/Harris survey and just over half of respondents to the Navigator poll.
But Democrats are dug in.
“We have to give people a reason to fight, and we have to get back to catering to the many over the few,” Cherlynn Stevenson, a state representative running for the Democratic nomination in Kentucky’s open 6th District, said. “This can be a big turning point for our party.”
Alec Hernández contributed to this report.
Politics
GOP’s Mills faces expulsion effort launched by one of his Republican colleagues
Republican Rep. Cory Mills of Florida was already dealing with multiple, overlapping scandals when a judge issued a restraining order against the congressman last fall after one of his ex-girlfriends accused him of threatening and harassing her. Soon after, Mills found that even some of his allies were keeping him at arm’s length.
In December, Rep. Byron Donalds, a fellow Florida Republican, conceded“The allegations against Cory, to me, are very troubling. I’m concerned about him. I hope he gets his stuff worked out and cleaned up, but it has to go through ethics [the Ethics Committee]. And he has to, you know, basically do that hard work to clear his name, if it can be cleared.”
Donalds, a leading gubernatorial candidate in Florida, had previously suggested he saw Mills as a possible running mate, making the comments that much more potent.
It didn’t do Mills any favors when The Washington Post published a new report a few days ago highlighting body camera footage that showed police officers in Washington, D.C., who were prepared to arrest the GOP congressman after a woman accused him of assault last year, before a lieutenant ultimately ordered them not to when she changed her account. (Mills refused to comment, except to say that the woman’s initial claim was “patently false.”)
Two days after the Post’s report reached the public, one of Mills’ Republican colleagues announced an effort to kick the congressman out of office. NBC News reported:
Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., introduced a resolution Monday to expel Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., from Congress over accusations that include sexual misconduct.
Mills is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee in connection with allegations of ‘sexual misconduct and/or dating violence’ and campaign finance violations. He has denied any wrongdoing.
“The swamp has protected Cory Mills for far too long and we are done letting it slide,” Mace said in a statement. “We tried to censure him and strip him from his committee assignments. Both parties blocked it, but we are not backing down.”
By way of social media, the Floridian expressed confidence that he’d prevail if Mace’s resolution reached the floor, encouraging the South Carolinian to “call the vote forward.”
Time will tell whether the expulsion vote actually happens, but in the meantime, after NOTUS reported that Mills intends to respond with an expulsion resolution of his own targeting Mace, the congresswoman wrote online“Cory Mills lied about his military service, has been accused of beating women, has a restraining order against him, and has allegedly been stuffing his own pockets with federal contracts while sitting in Congress. As a survivor, I will always stand up and right the wrongs of others. He is only coming after me because he knows he’s next.”
It’s not often that Americans see members of Congress launch dueling efforts to kick each other out of office, but this is proving to be an unusually awful term.
Indeed, amid growing GOP anxieties about the upcoming midterm elections, there’s fresh evidence that the House Republican conference is both divided and unraveling.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
Politics
Trump’s pick to replace Stefanik
DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 21
TRUMP FOR CONSTANTINO: Republican House candidate Anthony Constantino’s campaign to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik is a textbook example of how aligning with the MAGA extended universe pays off.
President Donald Trump today endorsed Constantino, the brash and hard-edged CEO of Sticker Mule, over Assemblymember Robert Smullen.
Trump’s nod for the businessperson is a microcosm of a decade of Republican politics. Smullen has lined up institutional support from the state GOP, county chairs and his fellow elected officials in Albany.
But none of that matters to Trump, who won his own insurgent primary a decade ago by bucking the Republican establishment.
Now the president is backing Constantino, who has assembled his own slate of endorsees far more suited to Trump’s temperament. That includes Rudy Giuliani, who backed Constantino after the candidate, according to his telling, wrote a “beautiful two-page letter” to the former New York City mayor.
Constantino has also enlisted Trump confidant and political operative Roger Stone.
Those ties were not lost on the president when he posted on Truth Social this afternoon. “Anthony is strongly supported by many of the most Highly Respected MAGA Warriors in our Movement, including Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Roger Stone!” he wrote.
Then of course, there’s the large “Vote for Trump” sign Constantino erected atop a building that can be seen from Interstate 90.
That kind of tangible loyalty — which withstood a legal challenge by local Democrats — also played well with the president.
“Anthony has been such a Great Supporter that he actually put up a somewhat ‘controversial’ sign, against strong opposition, in my honor,” Trump posted. “The sign is still there!”
For his part, Smullen — whose support from numerous county chairs doesn’t quite equate to the large pro-Trump signage visible from I-90 — was publicly unconcerned by the president weighing in on the primary.
“A consultant got to the president, somebody who is being paid by my opponent,” he told our Bill Mahoney. “And I think the president’s made a mistake here.”
Still, it’s hard not to view this development as anything but a massive blow for Smullen, running to succeed an ardently pro-MAGA House lawmaker in a district that the president won three times.
The endorsement also highlights the strange position the state GOP finds itself in. The party took the unusual step of backing Smullen in the race amid deep concerns from party leaders over Constantino’s temperament.
New York Republicans are preparing for a future without Stefanik as its leader and top fundraiser with national standing. The North Country House lawmaker was in line to become Trump’s United Nations ambassador, only to have the nod yanked amid a messy selection process to pick her successor. Hard feelings from Stefanik’s team following the scuttled special election to replace her have lingered as a result.
One GOP official chortled at the situation, which also comes after Stefanik bowed out of the race for governor following Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s entrance.
“They knifed Elise in the special and then they got crushed by Roger Stone,” said the person, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It is just the beginning of Elise’s allies including the president settling the score as Elise is in the midst of her successful book tour!”
For Constantino’s part, the endorsement is another step in what had initially seemed like a long-shot bid.
“I had a great talk with President Trump and am honored to receive his endorsement,” he said in a statement. “He noted every primary candidate he endorses wins so I look forward to winning the general election and making everyone who supported me very proud once I am in Congress.”
FROM CITY HALL

CC YOU IN COURT: A prominent police union filed a federal lawsuit against the Civilian Complaint Review Board today, alleging the oversight body is tarnishing officers’ reputations by releasing unredacted — and unsubstantiated — complaints against cops.
Beginning in October, the suit from the New York City Police Benevolent Association alleges, the CCRB began responding to Freedom of Information Law requests about three types of allegations against officers — sexual misconduct, racial bias and offering false statements — by releasing unredacted complaints that are then subsequently uploaded to a public database. Because CCRB does not redact identifying information, the police union argued, the accused officers’ reputations, safety, and employment prospects are unduly damaged.
“CCRB’s under-the-table collusion with anti-police activists to smear cops with false complaints is not only unfair and unconstitutional — it is a calculated effort to end proactive enforcement and drive cops away from the job,” PBA President Patrick Hendry said.
The PBA argued the complaint board is aware of how damaging the allegations can be to cops. The CCRB publishes a redacted version of the complaints on its own website.
The city’s Law Department declined to comment. And a CCRB spokesperson defended the agency but noted its ability to comment was limited by the suit.
“The CCRB’s investigations are complete, thorough and impartial,” spokesperson Dakota Gardner said in a statement. “The Agency continually reviews all applicable laws and regulations regarding the public release of its records, including disciplinary histories of members of service, to ensure it is fully compliant.” — Joe Anuta
CHARTERING A NEW COURSE?: Mamdani said at an unrelated press conference that his administration is weighing its options regarding the future of former Mayor Eric Adams’ Charter Revision Commission, which convened publicly for the first time Monday.
“We are reviewing all of the options that we have when it comes to this previously set up charter review,” Mamdani said at the press conference in Brooklyn.
Pressed on what those options might entail, the mayor added little clarity aside from noting with a laugh that “more and more are being presented by the day.”
The commission’s meeting focused on procedural steps, including selecting acting chair Gilford Monrose, as reported in today’s Playbook.
Created on Adams’ final day in office, the commission is tasked with crafting ballot proposals, including one to establish an open primary election system. This shift could complicate reelection prospects for Mamdani by opening the Democratic primary electorate up to a larger, more moderate-leaning pool of voters.
Mamdani — who has previously criticized the body as undemocratic — has several avenues to blunt its work. Charter experts say one option for the mayor’s office would be installing a chair who could stall proceedings.
Randy Mastro, the former first deputy mayor under Adams who’s now advising the commission pro bono, told Playbook yesterday he has received no assurances from the Mamdani administration about its plans. A person familiar with the matter said Mastro has also discussed the commission with Mamdani’s corporation counsel, Steve Banks.
Still, Mastro downplayed the influence of any single appointee amid the possibility of a Mamdani-selected chair helming the commission.
“I welcome anyone who wants to participate in a constructive process to improve our local democracy,” Mastro said. — Gelila Negesse
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

PRIMARY COLORS: Former state Assemblymember Taylor Darling ended her primary bid against battleground Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen earlier this week.
“Unfortunately, the technicalities of the current system make it challenging for community focused campaigns to fully participate in the Democratic process,” Darling wrote on social media. “While I respect the rules, it is clear that these barriers need to be addressed if we want a system where all voices, especially those from our communities, are heard and valued.”
Any primary challenger is poised to have an uphill climb against the incumbent Gillen, who has more than $3 million on hand. Darling, who entered the race after Gillen voted in support of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, raised just $24,000 last quarter and had $15,000 in the bank. Progressive organizer Kiana Bierria-Anderson is also in the race, though she said her petitions to get on the ballot are being challenged. — Madison Fernandez
IN OTHER NEWS
— WATCHDOG BARKS: Citizens Budget Commission urges lawmakers to limit government spending and hold off on tax hikes as new report shows tens of thousands of New Yorkers are leaving the city. (Gothamist)
— POLLUTERS PAY: Republicans in Congress are aiming to end New York’s climate law that requires fossil fuel companies to pay for weather-related damages. (Newsday)
— THAT STINKS: As state-funded daycare expands in New York, new education mandates regarding potty training and diaper changes for young students have left schools scrambling to create new policies. (New York Post)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
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