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Moderates beware: Mamdani coalition portends a dramatically different Democratic Party in NYC

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NEW YORK — A coalition powered by Mayor Zohran Mamdani expanded the left’s reach Tuesday, winning younger voters across racial and ethnic lines and once again upending conventional wisdom about elections in New York City.

A series of hotly contested congressional and state elections pit a slate of Mamdani-backed democratic socialists and progressives against establishment candidates who, in several cases, differed little on policy aside from U.S.-Israel relations.

The results were staggering.

Midterm election cycles in deep-blue New York City tend to be sleepy affairs. Both this year and in 2022, just over 500,000 people cast ballots, less than 20 percent of eligible voters. But turnout within a congressional district spanning Upper Manhattan and the Bronx increased by roughly 50 percent between 2022 and Tuesday, with more than 66,000 voters heading to the polls.

In another seat covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens, turnout more than doubled from 2022, though state and federal elections were held on different days that year and the seat was not competitive, which would have reduced the number of voters going to the polls.

Congressional candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America were able to replicate the mayor’s success by winning younger Latino voters in Brooklyn and a majority of Black voters in Harlem. Combined with the DSA’s base in relatively wealthy neighborhoods, the result charted the far left’s broadening appeal and a potential reorientation of the electorate that will influence races for years to come.

“This was a big wave for DSA and they did a good job capitalizing on it,” said Evan Roth Smith, a pollster with Slingshot Strategies. “The question now is: Was this a wave cycle that will abate, or is it the start of the takeover?”

Much of Mamdani’s base is concentrated in the so-called “commie-corridor,” a series of neighborhoods along the Brooklyn-Queens waterfront filled with young, educated and affluent voters who’ve propelled several DSA candidates into office. They went gaga over Mamdani’s candidacy and, as Tuesday’s results show, will turn out for candidates he supports.

The area was crucial to Assemblymember Claire Valdez’s crushing 56-38 defeat of Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.

“The factor that felt most significant to me were all of these New Yorkers who got activated and politicized in the mayor’s race last year who were looking for the next fight,” said Andrew Epstein, a political adviser to Mamdani who worked on Valdez’ campaign. “Those people didn’t go away. And they want to keep going.”

Valdez also won several heavily Latino areas that were expected to break for her opponent.

Reynoso was born in Brooklyn to Dominican parents and just a few years ago was a City Council member representing Bushwick, a long-gentrifying Brooklyn neighborhood that’s home to Latino families and young hipsters. Valdez was born in Texas, moved to New York City in 2015 and served in the state Assembly for just one term before launching her Mamdani-backed bid for retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez’s seat.

She ended up winning areas of Bushwick by even greater margins than the total results — in some election districts winning upwards of 80 percent of the vote.

“You don’t win the district by 35 points if you don’t have broad advantages across age and demographic groups,” said Michael Lange, an election analyst and Mamdani supporter who has tracked several contested races with extreme granularity. “Is she blowing him out of the water with Hispanic voters under 50? I see tons of evidence that the answer is yes.”

The age advantage was the common thread across several other races.

In Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, for example, younger Black voters in Harlem were key to Darializa Avila Chevalier’s win over Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who had built a small political empire in the district.

While gentrifying, the neighborhood remains a seat of Black political power and is home to younger households who tend to rent. That particular demographic is a strong indicator of why Mamdani won the area in 2025, even as he lost the Black vote overall to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose support was concentrated among older Black homeowners in Brooklyn and Queens.

While Espaillat never healed a rift with the Black community in upper Manhattan opened during his election in 2016, which contributed to his weak performance, Avila Chevalier demonstrated Tuesday that a significant share of voters there were not just supportive of Mamdani the person, but of the broader political movement he’s now leading.

Overall, she edged out Espaillat with Black voters 48-46, according to an analysis from The New York Times, which charted demographic breakdowns for several contested races.

Three winning congressional candidates endorsed by Mamdani — including former city Comptroller Brad Lander in Brooklyn, who unseated incumbent Dan Goldman — share several similarities. They won younger, college-educated and wealthier voters by huge margins, in several cases by 30 points or more, and lost lower-income voters to incumbents or candidates affiliated with incumbents — a sign that the movement seeking to boost struggling New Yorkers has not won them over.

While the DSA was able to win three state races without the support of Mamdani — a testament to the organizing prowess of the left that was essential to reactivating the mayor’s coalition — there were limits to the city’s leftward shift.

Rep. Grace Meng won her reelection race, though she only vanquished challenger Chuck Park by 14 points, an uncomfortable margin for an incumbent of her stature. Park, who ran to Meng’s left, was boosted by a huge turnout in Woodside, Queens, a multiethnic neighborhood that went heavily for Mamdani in last year’s mayoral race.

Elsewhere in the Bronx, however, incumbents remained strong. Rep. Ritchie Torres handily won reelection with 72 percent of the vote, though it was a low-turnout affair more consistent with an uncompetitive midterm. Nevertheless, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries touted the results — even as he watched a series of his endorsed candidates fall to the DSA in Brooklyn, his home borough, in a preview of the intraparty battles to come.

“In some higher-income districts, there was an outsized focus on the Middle East. In other districts, for instance, in the South Bronx, Ritchie Torres ran against somebody who was heavily critical of his position on Israel, and he won by fifty points,” Jeffries told MS NOW on Wednesday.

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Congress

Senate Republicans have 1 more chance to oppose the Iran war before the midterms

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Republicans appear increasingly anxious that the economic fallout from the Iran war could cost them their House and Senate majorities. They have one more chance to stage a symbolic jailbreak — and it’s not clear enough of them are ready to take the leap.

The Senate will vote as soon as Thursday on another measure aimed at halting the war, giving Democrats likely their final opportunity to put their GOP colleagues on the record before leaving town until after the midterms.

At least four Republicans are expected to support the Democratic-led effort: Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. With Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) expected to vote against reining in Trump’s military authority in the Middle East, Democrats need one more Republican to break ranks, presuming there is full attendance on both sides of the aisle.

That puts the Senate on the brink of a final pre-election rebuke of President Donald Trump’s approach to the overseas conflict that has contributed to the skyrocketing fuel prices plaguing GOP candidates on the campaign trail — and the first time since this summer that a Democrat-driven war powers resolution has been successful in the chamber.

Retiring Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a potential fifth GOP vote, said Wednesday he was undecided on whether or not to support the effort.

“I have spoken with people in the administration,” Cassidy said in an interview about outreach he’s gotten as he weighs his vote. “I think we all know that it’s a difficult situation — and so again, everybody wants ‘is it yes, or it is no’ and that’s not the case, so I’ll just leave it at that.”

GOP leaders have been closely watching members to see if Democrats will pick up additional votes.

“We’re constantly, of course, checking,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said when asked about the possibility of more Republicans voting for the resolution. “But I would hope that the team could hang together on this.”

In a positive sign for Thune and the White House, not every Republican who is now actively distancing themselves from the war in Iran, or publicly kvetching about high energy prices, is expected to cross party lines on the war powers vote. But it’s exposing the complicated dynamics inherent in splitting from Trump, even for incumbents running in competitive races where the issue could cost them their seats.

The resolution, unlike many of the others the Senate has voted on since the conflict began nearly eight months ago, is non-binding, meaning it won’t go to Trump for his signature. Yet Republicans know that isn’t likely to stop it from sparking Trump’s wrath, after the president privately fumed about the intra-party defections on war powers resolutions during a closed-door lunch with Senate Republicans earlier this year.

Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who said in an interview Tuesday that “the war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices,” has said he won’t support the Democratic-led war powers resolution. He’s in a tight race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is also running in a tough reelection campaign, just this week proposed a temporary ban on diesel imports for the length of the Iran conflict — which some Republicans but not all argue would bring down costs. But a spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday regarding how the senator planned to vote on the war powers resolution.

Sullivan also declined to comment as he was walking through the Capitol Wednesday evening, saying that he was “in a meeting.”

Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who named high gas prices as one of his lows last week in a social media video, is also expected to oppose the resolution believing an abrupt end to the war could spark national security concerns, according to an aide. He is not up for reelection for another four years.

Thune acknowledged the political crunch when asked Wednesday about some GOP candidates who are distancing themselves from Trump on both the war and rising energy costs.

“If I’m running in an environment like this, obviously you’re going to develop a campaign and a message that can win in your state,” Thune told reporters. “And so I encourage most candidates to run their own campaigns.

Asked if there was voter fatigue with the war, he added: “There’s voter fatigue with high gas prices. … It’s an economic frustration, and that’s why, again, I hope the administration is laser-focused on trying to get the strait open, get the shipping lanes opened up and help out with that global energy supply, because that ultimately will bring prices down.”

However, the Senate’s vote comes as Republicans are signaling alarm that the Iran war and the associated spike in energy and gas prices could hurt their candidates, even in typically red states that Trump carried in 2024.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers — who is trying to flip retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat in Michigan — and Rep. Ashley Hinson — who is trying to succeed departing GOP Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa — have both called in recent days for the Iran war to end. Rep. John James, the Republican candidate for governor of Michigan, has also endorsed an end to the war.

Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn also voted last week for a resolution in the House to end the Iran conflict. Asked about the shift in stance among fellow Iowa Republicans, Ernst told reporters that they are in “tough elections.” “I would like the administration to come back with a very clear plan on how we bring this to an end,” Ernst added separately on Wednesday. “I do support the president, but this is really having an impact on everyday Americans.”

Ernst and other members of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday met with Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, for a classified briefing on the ongoing war against Iran. Lawmakers said the session included in-depth discussions about military readiness and munitions stockpiles, but not a concrete plan for when the conflict will be resolved.

“You all know about as much as I do on that,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told reporters as he left the meeting. “They didn’t really offer anything on an ending.”

That has become a point of frustration even for GOP supporters of the war. Trump throughout the spring repeatedly predicted the fight would only last for a few more weeks, but he ditched those pledges as fighting continued through the summer.

Pressed if Republicans were ready to end the war in Iran, Thune said “everybody wants to see wars come to a conclusion” and that he believed the administration was working “aggressively to make that happen.”

Ernst said this week she wants “to have a clear understanding on how the administration is going to bring this to an end” — but also that she would “probably” keep voting against the war powers resolutions.

Leo Shane III contributed to this report. 

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Inside the fierce House GOP war over committee waivers

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House Republicans for decades have prided themselves on their strict three-term limit for committee leaders, saying it promotes fresh blood in the party ranks.

But that limit has grown less strict in recent years, and a growing number of GOP lawmakers are aching for a crackdown.

Three of the 20 sitting House chairs have signaled interest in applying for a waiver to bypass the six-year term limit Republicans have had in place for more than 30 years. If each follows through, it would be the first time so many exceptions have been sought at once — and some Republicans are openly warning the practice is spinning out of control.

“We have term limits for a reason,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in an interview.

The question will be in the hands of the House Republican Steering Committee, a 35-member body representing a cross-section of the larger GOP conference. Depending on the outcome of the midterms — and the subsequent GOP leadership elections — the influential panel could also see an influx of younger members who might be even less inclined to give longtime committee leaders a two-year extension.

“They don’t owe the old guys anything,” Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) said in an interview. “They don’t see seniority as the main thing anymore, because even leadership is pretty young. So this is a whole new generation.”

The up-or-out dynamic has long been a point of distinction inside the House GOP, where generational resentments have been much more muted than among Democrats — who have no committee term limits and have seen younger members chafe as veterans spend a decade or more occupying top panel spots.

This year, however, both Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson of Pennsylvania and Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers of Alabama have said they intend to seek waivers after leading their respective committees for six years already. So, too, has Rep. Ken Calvert of California, who chairs the powerful Appropriations subcommittee on Defense and is already serving a fourth term under a waiver. Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman of Arkansas has also signaled he might seek an exception.

As the chairs line up to make their case to the Steering Committee, many of its current members are publicly voicing their opposition to watering down the term limits rule, which dates to 1992 under the leadership of then-future Speaker Newt Gingrich.

“I would say waivers are rare and will remain so,” said Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), a Steering member. “There’s also a lot of talent that has been waiting.”

“There’s a reason we have term limits — they work,” said Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), another Steering member who is challenging Thompson for the Agriculture spot.

At least one top GOP leader is sending similar signals: Majority Whip Tom Emmer said in a recent interview he’s “not a fan” of the waiver practice, while Speaker Mike Johnson, who gets an outsize four votes in Steering matters, said he would leave the waiver debate to the panel.

“We haven’t gotten to that yet,” Johnson told Blue Light News. “We’ll figure it out.”

There is some precedent for granting waivers.

In 2022, North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx, then the chair of the Education and Workforce Committee, successfully applied for a waiver after Republicans retook the majority after four years of Democratic control. She argued she’d had only two years as chair and had more work to get done.

Two years later, Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Sam Graves of Missouri made his pitch to stay for a fourth term, and was granted a waiver to the surprise of several Republicans.

One key factor: Both Foxx and Graves had backing from members of their committees, including those next in line for the position. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.

Now, not only is Scott looking to immediately succeed Thompson, but Rogers is facing challenges from Reps. Ronny Jackson of Texas, Rob Wittman of Virginia and Trent Kelly of Mississippi. Westerman hasn’t officially thrown his hat into the ring, but Rep. Pete Stauber of Minnesota is already in the Natural Resources race, and Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona has floated interest.

“I support term limits. I always have. It wouldn’t matter if I was in this race or not,” Scott said. “There are some other people that are very good friends of mine that are termed out, and I would not support a term limit for them.”

Rogers hasn’t disclosed his specific pitch for a waiver, saying in an interview at the Capitol earlier this month that he’s “not going to talk about that before the election.”

Thompson, meanwhile, has already circulated a letter to Steering Committee members asking for their support, citing his “temperament and willingness to roll up my sleeves to get the job done.” Notably, it remains uncertain whether Congress will be able to pass a farm bill this year — typically a crowning achievement for any Agriculture chair.

Matt Brennan, Thompson’s chief of staff, said in a statement that the chair is focused on the November election but “will continue to make his intentions known to members of the Steering Committee and the conference at large in the coming weeks.”

Some Republicans believe the issue could solve itself, especially if the GOP loses its majority in November and the chairs would instead be looking at two years as ranking members. And others simply believe the number of lawmakers seeking exceptions will work against all of them. The last time multiple chairs sought waivers, in 2010, both were denied.

“The more people that apply for waivers, the less likely any of them are to happen because then you’re in a position of having to make choices,” Cole said. “Either they all get it or they all don’t get it.”

Connor O’Brien and Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.

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Senators weigh staying in town to vote on data center bill

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Senate Republicans are discussing whether to stay in town next week to vote on a data center bill being championed by one of their most vulnerable incumbents, according to two GOP senators granted anonymity to disclose private talks.

Republicans haven’t made a decision — and lawmakers said they were given no concrete guidance on their schedule during a closed-door lunch with party leaders Wednesday. But the fact that some are weighing whether to remain in session so close to the midterms against sending members home early to campaign signals a growing anxiety over affordability-related issues ahead of Election Day.

Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who is fending off a competitive challenge from former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, tried last week to clear a House-passed bill aimed at getting tech companies to cover the energy costs associated with data centers — an issue that has overtaken his Senate race.

But Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, the top Democrat on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, blocked Husted’s effort to pass the bill quickly via a unanimous consent agreement, arguing the measure doesn’t go far enough to protect consumers.

That means GOP leaders would need to jump through days of procedural hoops in order to get even an initial vote on the bill.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) also indicated Wednesday that he would urge his colleagues not to support the legislation at this time, instead touting another Democratic bill that would put more enforcement mechanisms in place.

“Senator Husted’s bill is a fraud. It’s voluntary, no company has to do it,” he told reporters during his weekly news conference. “The bill we have is mandatory. It is much stronger and it is what is needed.”

The House version of Husted’s bill passed in the House with overwhelming bipartisan support earlier this month.

Senate Republicans are also still waiting to see if a long-sought deal to overhaul the energy permitting process comes together. If an agreement can be reached soon, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has indicated that the chamber would stay in town next week to process that bill, giving lawmakers more time to take up the Ratepayer Protection Act as well.

Calen Razor contributed to this report.

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