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Moderates beware: Mamdani coalition portends a dramatically different Democratic Party in NYC

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NEW YORK — A coalition powered by Mayor Zohran Mamdani expanded the left’s reach Tuesday, winning younger voters across racial and ethnic lines and once again upending conventional wisdom about elections in New York City.

A series of hotly contested congressional and state elections pit a slate of Mamdani-backed democratic socialists and progressives against establishment candidates who, in several cases, differed little on policy aside from U.S.-Israel relations.

The results were staggering.

Midterm election cycles in deep-blue New York City tend to be sleepy affairs. Both this year and in 2022, just over 500,000 people cast ballots, less than 20 percent of eligible voters. But turnout within a congressional district spanning Upper Manhattan and the Bronx increased by roughly 50 percent between 2022 and Tuesday, with more than 66,000 voters heading to the polls.

In another seat covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens, turnout more than doubled from 2022, though state and federal elections were held on different days that year and the seat was not competitive, which would have reduced the number of voters going to the polls.

Congressional candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America were able to replicate the mayor’s success by winning younger Latino voters in Brooklyn and a majority of Black voters in Harlem. Combined with the DSA’s base in relatively wealthy neighborhoods, the result charted the far left’s broadening appeal and a potential reorientation of the electorate that will influence races for years to come.

“This was a big wave for DSA and they did a good job capitalizing on it,” said Evan Roth Smith, a pollster with Slingshot Strategies. “The question now is: Was this a wave cycle that will abate, or is it the start of the takeover?”

Much of Mamdani’s base is concentrated in the so-called “commie-corridor,” a series of neighborhoods along the Brooklyn-Queens waterfront filled with young, educated and affluent voters who’ve propelled several DSA candidates into office. They went gaga over Mamdani’s candidacy and, as Tuesday’s results show, will turn out for candidates he supports.

The area was crucial to Assemblymember Claire Valdez’s crushing 56-38 defeat of Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.

“The factor that felt most significant to me were all of these New Yorkers who got activated and politicized in the mayor’s race last year who were looking for the next fight,” said Andrew Epstein, a political adviser to Mamdani who worked on Valdez’ campaign. “Those people didn’t go away. And they want to keep going.”

Valdez also won several heavily Latino areas that were expected to break for her opponent.

Reynoso was born in Brooklyn to Dominican parents and just a few years ago was a City Council member representing Bushwick, a long-gentrifying Brooklyn neighborhood that’s home to Latino families and young hipsters. Valdez was born in Texas, moved to New York City in 2015 and served in the state Assembly for just one term before launching her Mamdani-backed bid for retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez’s seat.

She ended up winning areas of Bushwick by even greater margins than the total results — in some election districts winning upwards of 80 percent of the vote.

“You don’t win the district by 35 points if you don’t have broad advantages across age and demographic groups,” said Michael Lange, an election analyst and Mamdani supporter who has tracked several contested races with extreme granularity. “Is she blowing him out of the water with Hispanic voters under 50? I see tons of evidence that the answer is yes.”

The age advantage was the common thread across several other races.

In Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, for example, younger Black voters in Harlem were key to Darializa Avila Chevalier’s win over Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who had built a small political empire in the district.

While gentrifying, the neighborhood remains a seat of Black political power and is home to younger households who tend to rent. That particular demographic is a strong indicator of why Mamdani won the area in 2025, even as he lost the Black vote overall to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose support was concentrated among older Black homeowners in Brooklyn and Queens.

While Espaillat never healed a rift with the Black community in upper Manhattan opened during his election in 2016, which contributed to his weak performance, Avila Chevalier demonstrated Tuesday that a significant share of voters there were not just supportive of Mamdani the person, but of the broader political movement he’s now leading.

Overall, she edged out Espaillat with Black voters 48-46, according to an analysis from The New York Times, which charted demographic breakdowns for several contested races.

Three winning congressional candidates endorsed by Mamdani — including former city Comptroller Brad Lander in Brooklyn, who unseated incumbent Dan Goldman — share several similarities. They won younger, college-educated and wealthier voters by huge margins, in several cases by 30 points or more, and lost lower-income voters to incumbents or candidates affiliated with incumbents — a sign that the movement seeking to boost struggling New Yorkers has not won them over.

While the DSA was able to win three state races without the support of Mamdani — a testament to the organizing prowess of the left that was essential to reactivating the mayor’s coalition — there were limits to the city’s leftward shift.

Rep. Grace Meng won her reelection race, though she only vanquished challenger Chuck Park by 14 points, an uncomfortable margin for an incumbent of her stature. Park, who ran to Meng’s left, was boosted by a huge turnout in Woodside, Queens, a multiethnic neighborhood that went heavily for Mamdani in last year’s mayoral race.

Elsewhere in the Bronx, however, incumbents remained strong. Rep. Ritchie Torres handily won reelection with 72 percent of the vote, though it was a low-turnout affair more consistent with an uncompetitive midterm. Nevertheless, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries touted the results — even as he watched a series of his endorsed candidates fall to the DSA in Brooklyn, his home borough, in a preview of the intraparty battles to come.

“In some higher-income districts, there was an outsized focus on the Middle East. In other districts, for instance, in the South Bronx, Ritchie Torres ran against somebody who was heavily critical of his position on Israel, and he won by fifty points,” Jeffries told MS NOW on Wednesday.

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NRSC takes on $20M in loans

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Senate Republicans’ campaign arm took out $20 million in loans in September, a significant cash infusion as the party looks to fight an increasingly challenging map ahead of November’s midterm elections.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee incurred a $17 million loan on Sep. 1 and another $3 million on Sep. 22, according to a filing submitted to the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday.

The need for cash comes after months of the NRSC and other GOP groups boasting about their large cash advantage over Democrats, as the party floods the airwaves in an effort to win core battlegrounds in an unfavorable environment.

The organization framed the loan as part of continuing that cash advantage.

“The NRSC has raised record-breaking resources, consistently maintained one of the lowest burn rates across all committees, and furthered the efficacy of every dollar by immediately acting on the fall of unlimited coordinated spending with our candidates,” NRSC communications director Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement. “We’re going to throw everything we can at protecting our Republican Senate Majority, and we’re going to win.”

It’s not unusual for campaign arms to take out loans late in an election cycle. In 2024, the NRSC took out $17 million in loans, and it borrowed $20 million during the 2022 cycle as well, according to FEC reports.

The NRSC has raised $228 million this cycle compared to $188 million for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, but Democratic Senate candidates have far outraised Republican ones.

The NRSC had $28 million in the bank, including the loan, at the end of September after raising $31 million and spending $41 million in the month, although a slight majority of the funds raised — $18 million — came via transfers from the Republican National Committee.

The DSCC, by comparison, ended September with just under $25 million in the bank. It had not taken out any loans this cycle as of that point.

Unlike past cycles, political parties can now more freely pay for advertising in coordination with candidates — and at a much cheaper rate. That will allow the party to stretch the $20 million further than in past election cycles.

In September, the NRSC put just under $34 million into coordinated spending, all of it on advertising, according to the Tuesday FEC filing.

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Senate Democrats start spending in Mississippi

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Democrats’ money machine is on its way to Mississippi.

Senate Majority PAC is putting an initial $1.2 million on television statewide through Election Day to boost Scott Colom, the group announced Tuesday — another plunge into deep-red territory for Democrats as they take advantage of a dismal environment for Republicans.

Colom, a local prosecutor, has gained on GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in recent public polling, and has started to gain the attention of national Democrats. Some Senators, including Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, have pushed for more party investment in the race, which they believe in the right environment could flip a traditionally red seat.

But until now, Democrats said their resources were stretched too thin across a widening map that would allow them to play in the Magnolia State.

SMP is launching its first ad Wednesday attacking Hyde-Smith as a “do-nothing” senator and is planning a digital program as well. Lauren French, a spokesperson for SMP, said in a statement that “it is clear Colom is running a competitive race that has put Hyde-Smith on her heels.”

Hyde-Smith’s campaign downplayed the race’s competitiveness while tying Colom to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

“It took Chuck Schumer and his Super PACs thirteen months to run a single ad for Scott Colom,” Hyde-Smith campaign spokesperson Nathan Calvert said in a statement. “Chuck knows what Mississippians know, Scott Colom is too liberal, supports transgender surgeries for children, men in women’s restrooms and locker rooms, open borders, and higher taxes. Team Cindy is confident that voters will reject this radical agenda at the ballot box on November 3rd.”

Colom’s campaign didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Other national Democrats have started paying attention to the race too, with several set to descend on Mississippi ahead of Election Day. Former Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign alongside Colom later this week, and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg will hit the trail next week.

The state has the highest proportion of Black people in the nation, giving Democrats a high base of support in most elections — and has long left Democrats dreaming they could win statewide, having invested some resources in recent Senate and governor’s races over the past decade. Hyde-Smith did not top 55% of the vote in either of her previous elections, and Colom has seized on an interview clip when she was asked about the high price of beef: “You know, you have so many proteins to choose from.”.

Still, despite the overall positive environment for the party, flipping the seat remains a steep uphill battle. Republicans control all levers of state government, and Trump handily won by 24 points in 2024. The last time Mississippians elected a Democrat statewide was 2015, and the last time the state sent a Democrat to the Senate was 1982.

SMP’s investment in Mississippi follows multimillion-dollar dives into Kansas and Texas that collectively show how far the Senate map has shifted onto red turf in the midterm’s closing weeks. The Chuck Schumer-aligned group has also cut back on spending on television in North Carolina and Georgia in recent weeks amid increasingly bullish outlooks for Democrats Roy Cooper and Sen. Jon Ossoff, respectively.

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DCCC launches ads against Mike Turner in red Ohio district

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House Democrats’ campaign arm is launching its first ad buy against seven-term GOP Rep. Mike Turner in his western Ohio district as they seek to turn up the pressure on Republicans in once-safe red seats.

The DCCC is dropping separate six-figure buys on two coordinated television ads boosting challenger Kristina Knickerbocker, spokesperson Riya Vashi said — a remarkable investment considering Turner won in 2024 by over 18 percentage points, overperforming President Donald Trump.

Ohio adopted a new redistricted congressional map last year that was expected to favor Republicans. Turner’s 10th District voted for Trump by 6 points in 2024; under the new lines it would have been closer to 8 points.

The first ad airing this week opens with a woman saying, “It’s time we had someone in Congress who actually stands up for us” as Knickerbocker jogs through a neighborhood.

Democrats are eyeing Turner’s Dayton-area seat as a reach opportunity. A new internal DCCC poll of 535 likely general election voters reviewed by Blue Light News shows Knickerbocker running three percentage points ahead of Turner. Polling from this summer showed Turner leading the race.

Another Democratic group, House Majority PAC, has already poured more than a million dollars into the race against Turner and has reservations planned through Nov. 3. Knickerbocker is not on the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” roster of candidates who get the bulk of its resources.

“Alarm bells should be ringing for Mike Turner,” Vashi said in a statement. “Kristina Knickerbocker has the momentum in this race, and the DCCC will make sure every voter in this district knows exactly how Turner has betrayed them.”

But the NRCC has been spending in the district for several weeks to boost Turner. House Republican campaign operatives are so far dismissing efforts to flip the seat.

NRCC spokesperson Zach Bannon called Turner “a life-long Ohioan who has a record of cutting taxes, lowering costs, and making Ohio streets safer.”

“While Congressman Turner delivers commonsense conservative wins, out of touch Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker supports a radical far-left agenda,” Bannon said. “This November, Ohioans will reject liberal Knickerbocker and send Congressman Mike Turner back to Congress.”

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