Politics
‘Knife’s edge’: US-Mexico relationship teeters as World Cup begins
Just after halftime in their country’s match against South Africa Thursday afternoon, Mexican embassy officials were nervous.
Forward Julián Quiñones scored a goal in the first nine minutes, and spirits were high at the embassy’s Washington D.C. watch party where mini-burritos, cervezas and — in a nod to the bilateral relationship — McDonald’s hamburgers and walking tacos were flowing freely. But South Africa’s shots on Mexico’s goal were creating staccatos of panic as the score remained 1-0.
“So far, so good — but it could be better,” one diplomat quipped.
Talk to Mexican officials, diplomats and business leaders, and it’s a sentiment that’s apropos of the current state of the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Mexico as the two countries, along with Canada, kick off six weeks of World Cup festivities.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum — who did not attend the opening match — has earned plaudits on both sides of the border for her behind-the-scenes work to cultivate a solid working relationship with President Donald Trump, despite vastly different political orientations and persistent friction over migration, drug trafficking and trade.
Sheinbaum’s domestic challenges were also on full display outside the historic Azteca stadium on Thursday, where hundreds of protestors demanding pay raises for teachers and more resources for the search of 130,000 missing persons in Mexico clashed with police and threw cones and other projectiles into the security perimeter.
Now, at what should be a continental high-water mark — as North America unites to host the World Cup — the relationship is instead facing its greatest test. Tensions are running high over the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, a brewing extradition standoff over several Morena party officials — including the governor of Sinaloa — and Trump’s fresh threats on Wednesday to target drugs “coming in by land” via Mexico.
“It’s on a knife’s edge,” said Arturo Sarukhán, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. during the Bush and Obama administrations. “The paradox is that all of this is playing out as the World Cup kicks off, a World Cup that should have been a moment to celebrate the promise of North America, and to talk about the future of a North American century.”
The strain on the bilateral relationship beyond the World Cup is existential for Mexico — about 80 percent of the country’s exports flow to the United States — but also for the U.S. Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with two-way trade topping $872 billion in 2025, accounting for roughly 15 percent of all goods coming into the U.S. And the integration runs deep into American supply chains, like autos and electronics, meaning that anything that seriously destabilizes the relationship is bad economic news for the U.S.
For now, the anxiety is largely one-directional, as Trump world remains broadly bullish on the U.S.-Mexico relationship even amid genuine turbulence. Two CIA officers were killed in an April crash in Chihuahua that revealed U.S. intelligence operatives working in the field alongside Mexican state investigators without, Mexican officials say, the federal government’s authorization. The Sinaloa indictments followed just over a week later.
“It’s a pressure point, but I also think if you ask people who work on this, they’d say that — relative to where we’ve been in the past — the security cooperation with Mexico is pretty good under Sheinbaum,” said Alex Gray, a former senior National Security Council official in the first Trump administration. “I think things are, all things considered, not bad.”
Even the original architects of the 2026 World Cup bid, which was won during the first Trump administration, agree that cracks in the U.S.-Mexico relationship were a more serious issue eight years ago.
North American soccer executives told Blue Light News that bringing the U.S. together with Mexico wasn’t easy at a time when Trump was calling NAFTA — the precursor to USMCA — “a disaster” and demanding Mexico pay for his border wall.
White House aides laud Sheinbaum’s cooperation on everything from preventing the spread of Ebola heading into the World Cup to efforts to combat drug trafficking. A senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the bilateral relationship, described it simply as “good.”
“I mean, there have been shared responsibilities, like, for example, the whole Ebola thing, right? We worked with them and Canada to ensure that there is proper vetting of individuals coming into the countries,” the official said. “We’re obviously working with her on combatting cartels on many fronts, so it’s good.”
The Mexican embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
Yet Mexican officials have watched the relationship unfold with a kind of cognitive dissonance, marked by progress in one lane and crisis in another. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin’s meeting last month with Sheinbaum in Mexico, for instance, was seen as a positive step for the bilateral relationship, particularly for the security cooperation that has underpinned it.
But that goodwill is being tested on several fronts. The Morena indictments are creating a domestic quagmire for Sheinbaum, who is demanding “overwhelming and irrefutable proof” before moving against Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and the nine other current and former Mexican officials who have been charged by the U.S. Justice Department with drug trafficking and weapons offenses.
Trade talks between the two countries had also been going reasonably well — so much so that the two have been talking without Canada even at the table. But Trump on Wednesday injected a fresh dose of uncertainty by saying he was “not looking to renew” the pact and dismissed the notion that the U.S. needed either of its neighbors. And the countries are all but certain to miss the July 1 date to renew the agreement, with a third round of talks scheduled in Mexico City the week of July 20.
The uncertainty has left proponents of the bilateral relationship nervously reading the tea leaves of Trump’s public appearances for any indication of growing irritation with Sheinbaum.
“What I’m seeing is it’s not just one single relationship: We have several individual and topic-based agendas. You have something very good in one hand and something struggling in the other. What we’re trying obviously is to have an umbrella relationship that is good, that makes the other individual agendas also good,” said Enrique Perret, managing director of the U.S.-Mexico Foundation. “But right now we don’t have that good umbrella relationship. That’s what we’re missing.”
The two leaders still have yet to meet at the White House, a move that some south of the border see as a carefully calculated effort on Sheinbaum’s part to not take any unnecessary gambles with the relationship, and avoid the kind of Oval Office spectacle that became commonplace between Trump and world leaders last year.
The two have only met once in person — at the official draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in December. Whether they’ll appear together at any games in the coming weeks remains an open question.
Republicans are pointing to the World Cup in their persistent bid to force Democrats to extend Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Millions of visitors from foreign countries have already begun their pilgrimage to the tournament, which kicked off this week.
“Hosting the World Cup is akin to having 78 Super Bowls in 38 days — a massive undertaking from a national security perspective,” the Senate GOP wrote in a post on X Friday. “Senate Democrats still let FISA 702 expire, hindering our ability to stop potential terror attacks before they happen.”
The law is all but certain to expire today as Congress remains in uproar over Trump’s appointment of Bill Pulte to serve as acting director of national intelligence. Efforts to secure a short-term extension in the House and Senate both failed Thursday.
And if a terrorist attack happened at the World Cup? “It would be a lot of finger-pointing,” Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told Blue Light News on Friday. “You should just pull out every stop right now to make sure that there are no problems.”
President Donald Trump announced plans to nominate the more palatable Jay Clayton for the full-time DNI job on Thursday, a choice that garnered immediate approval from Republican leadership.
Democrats, Trump wrote Wednesday on Truth Social, “are trying to take our national security hostage because of unrelated issues.”
But Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the ranking member of the chamber’s Intelligence Committee, placed the blame for the stalemate squarely on Trump. Negotiations on a long-term extension were well on their way before Trump announced his Pulte pick.
“God forbid, as we move into the World Cup, that something would happen,” he told reporters Thursday. “But if something happens, it lies at the feet of the president.”
Young pushed back. The two-term senator disagreed with Trump’s call to tap Pulte for the interim nod, but he said Democrats are the ones passing up an opportunity to reauthorize the law.
“He could have also passed a 702 reauthorization that very night he uttered those words,” he said. “And he and others chose not to.”
Missouri is not launching a probe into pricing strategies employed by FIFA, a spokesperson from the state attorney general’s office told Blue Light News, as several states playing host to World Cup matches take the organization to task for allegedly misleading fans.
Colbey Stosberg, public affairs specialist at the Missouri Attorney General’s Office, said in a statement that the office is instead focusing on “the unfortunate opportunity it creates for scammers to exploit travelers and match attendees.”
Missouri’s Arrowhead Stadium will play host to four games during the World Cup group stage, as well as a round of 32 matchup and a quarterfinal. Argentina will take on Algeria next Tuesday, Kansas City’s first game of the tournament.
“We haven’t received any complaints about purportedly deceptive pricing strategies yet,” Stosberg said. “If we do happen to receive those, we will review the complaint and determine any appropriate actions to be taken.”
On Tuesday, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced a new investigation over allegations that FIFA misled fans into spending more money for seats with premium views, only to change the seating maps.
New York and New Jersey launched their own joint investigation into ticket pricing in May. And California Attorney General Rob Bonta sent a letter to FIFA, seeking information “to assess potential violations of California law.”
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