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Jon Ossoff should be feeling shutdown heat. He’s not acting like it.

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On paper, Jon Ossoff has plenty of reasons to break party ranks as the government shutdown drags into a third week: The 38-year-old Georgian is the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for re-election next year and his home state has more than 81,000 federal workers at risk for furloughs and firings

In reality, Ossoff is sticking closely to his party’s strategy of trying to reframe the shutdown fight as a battle over health care — and has emerged as an object lesson in the limits of Republican efforts to focus pressure on the Democrats’ soft spots.

Part of that calculus is that it is much riskier to alienate your own party’s base than to break ranks in hopes of appealing to swing voters. The bigger issue, fellow senators say, is that there is little belief today’s shutdown will matter much at all when voters start heading to polls a year from now.

“It just doesn’t stick,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D) said in an interview. “I think every year the attention span of the American people gets shorter and shorter.”

“Nobody is going to be paying attention to the shutdown next November,” added Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who pointed to how Republicans gained seats in the midterms after the 2013 shutdown fight they instigated.

Even though Ossoff represents a state that voted for President Donald Trump last year and his re-election race is ranked as a toss-up by leading campaign prognosticators, he has positioned himself in lockstep with his party’s leadership. He opposed the GOP-led stopgap funding bill in March, embraced calls to impeach Trump earlier this year and has sparred with Trump nominees in Senate hearings.

It’s a break from the tack-to-the-center playbook used by swing-state Democrats for decades. Ossoff as of last month had voted with Trump just 8 percent of the time, according to tracking from the Center for American Progress Action Fund. Two other purple-state Democrats — Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania — have voted with Republicans to pass a House-approved bill that would end the shutdown.

Asked about the standoff this week, Ossoff hewed closely to his party’s main message on expiring health insurance subsidies and foisted blame on House Republicans for leaving town amid the standoff.

What Americans are trying to get “their heads around,” he told reporters, “is, with health insurance premiums set to double for more than 20 million Americans and the federal government shut down, why the U.S. House of Representatives is shut down this week.”

That line of argument is in keeping with his party’s main bet: that midterm voters won’t remember the shutdown so much as they remember that Democrats were fighting on behalf of Americans’ health care benefits. More than 20 million use the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire, including an estimated 1.4 million Georgians.

Ossoff and other Georgia Democrats have seized on health care as a focus for their political messaging in the state. During a recent event in Georgia, Ossoff raised concerns about the impact the GOP’s new domestic policy law enacted in July will have on rural hospitals, which stand to be harmed by Medicaid cuts that are only partially offset by a new fund for their benefit.

Even if some of Ossoff’s Republican colleagues are skeptical he will face political consequences for lining up behind the rest of his party amid the shutdown, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm is hammering him over the decision, including circulating a list of federal services that have been paused in the state and running digital ads attacking him since the shutdown began.

“Jon Ossoff is knowingly hurting Georgia’s small businesses and ripping away critical government services from Georgia veterans, farmers, and families all because he wants to give free healthcare to illegal aliens and appease his far-left supporters in California,” NRSC spokesperson Nick Puglia said in a statement.

Republicans have long viewed Ossoff as a prime target for the 2026 midterm map. He defeated Georgia Sen. David Perdue in a down-to-the-wire upset that wasn’t settled until Jan. 6, 2021 — hours before the Capitol riot.

The 2021 Georgia race — which also saw Democrat Raphael Warnock defeat incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler — remains infamous in GOP circles as an opportunity lost due to self-inflicted wounds. Ahead of the election, Trump cast serious doubts on mail-in voting in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, which Republican operatives believe cost them victory in both races.

Now Republicans are contending with a crowded primary field eager to take Ossoff on that has yet to see a clear frontrunner emerge. They are betting that once Trump makes an endorsement, GOP voters will rally and make Ossoff a one-term senator. At least one of the candidates, Rep. Mike Collins, has launched digital ads attacking Ossoff over the shutdown.

Ossoff, however, has spent years preparing to do battle in what has long been eyed as a hotly contested race. His team has billed him as “MAGA’s #1 target” in fundraising appeals as he drums up support among committed Democratic voters, who will be crucial for him.

His campaign announced last week he had raised $12 million in the latest quarter, padding a formidable war chest that now stands at $21 million. Both parties are likely to pour in tens of millions of dollars in outside spending; the 2020 Georgia Senate races were the most expensive of the cycle.

Democrats also believe Ossoff’s health-care-focused strategy in the shutdown fight is getting backup from an unlikely in-state wingwoman: GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

The MAGA stalwart emerged this month as a vocal advocate for her party needing to come up with a plan to deal with the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Democrats have relished Greene’s comments as a sign that even a figure once on the fringes of the Republican Party is acknowledging that insurance premiums will spike without congressional action.

“Why would Marjorie Taylor Greene go out so strong on that issue? She’s in Georgia, and I think Georgia was getting some of the first notices,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “I think Georgians are seeing at the front end how bad it’s going to be.”

Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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Congress

The House Ethics Committee wants to do better

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Three lawmakers accused of serious ethical lapses have been forced to resign in just over a week, prompting even members of the House Ethics Committee to question whether the panel is up to the task of policing its own.

The committee is at a moment of reckoning as it seeks to prove itself ready, willing and able to root out bad behavior in its ranks. It’s spent the past year and a half rebuilding its reputation after internal disagreements about how to handle an ethics report over ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz spilled into the public and threatened the bipartisan panel’s credibility.

Now, amid the high-profile resignations of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), members who sit on the highly secretive committee are opening up — eager to share their perspectives, acknowledge their limitations and defend their work.

“The reality is we are still too slow, and I believe that we should be moving faster. I’ve expressed some of my recommendations on how we can do that to staff,” said Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.), who joined the Ethics Committee this Congress, in an interview. “I want people to take the Ethics Committee more seriously.”

In extended interviews Monday and Tuesday, Ethics Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) said his panel is hamstrung by the House’s institutional bureaucracy.

“I’ve been asked, you know, could the Ethics Committee, if there were additional resources provided to the committee, would that help us move cases through quickly? And of course, the answer to that is yes,” Guest said. “But you know, it has to be up to leadership. It has to be up to the Speaker and the Minority Leader as to the size of the staff that they would like to see the Ethics Committee command.”

Their comments come amid questions around how Gonzales and Swalwell were able to serve in office for so long unchecked: Both were accused of engaging in sexual misconduct with former staffers, with Swalwell accused of rape. Each stepped down before the Ethics Committee ever had a chance to render findings of fault and enact punishments.

Cherfilus-McCormick also resigned moments before the Ethics Committee was due to meet Tuesday afternoon to consider a punishment for a determination that she illicitly funneled millions to support her campaign, which could have culminated in a recommendation of expulsion.

Now attention is turning to Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who stands accused of numerous violations, including illicitly engaging in government contracts while in federal office and threatening to release a former girlfriend’s nude videos. He has maintained he has no plans to resign as his case before the Ethics Committee has languished without resolution.

In November, the House Ethics panel quietly requested the Office of Congressional Conduct — the quasi-independent office that fields and investigates complaints against members and staff from the public — to drop its probe into Mills, according to a person with knowledge of the ethics process who was granted anonymity to describe the confidential process. That message was transmitted to the OCC the same day the House voted to effectively table a resolution offered by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) to censure Mills for various alleged improprieties.

The OCC was established in 2008 by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and proponents say it provides a necessary, largely independent set of eyes — including on ongoing investigations. Critics view the OCC as an untrustworthy political group; it sat defanged for months this Congress before Speaker Mike Johnson brought a perfunctory measure to the House floor that set up its ability to launch investigations by appointing its board.

Guest declined to discuss details of the Mills case but did not deny that such a request had been made, saying it was standard practice for Ethics to take the reins on a probe from OCC “once an investigative subcommittee is established.”

He conceded the Ethics Committee at times may operate slower than some would like, but its process was deliberate and thorough. “If members want this to be a rush committee where we have two weeks to come up with a report and return that report back to the body, then I’m not the right person to be serving in that room.”

He did say he hoped to discuss with Johnson how to improve the panel’s operations. One continued challenge for members is the loss of jurisdiction once a lawmaker resigns from Congress, which has historically meant the committee stops its investigation and does not release a report of its findings. Guest proposed a new policy where a report could be made public upon a lawmaker’s resignation, meaning bad actors could not always leave office in order to hide from revelations about their misdeeds.

Rep. Mark DeSaulnier of California, the top Democrat on the Ethics Committee, said the committee could better handle cases of sexual misconduct and has spoken to Democratic leadership about modernizing the panel.

“I think on sexual harassment, [the] thing that occurs to me is that there should be one place to go that’s clear to report, that has enough staff, and they’re been very well trained in the subject area, so that people feel like there’s a place they can go and be safe, protected,” he said. “And then there’s a due process that responds in a way that is deliberative, but under the urgency of circumstances.”

This is an area where the Ethics Committee has, in recent weeks, found itself struggling to respond to public pressure. When the House was poised in March to vote on a measure brought by Mace that would have compelled the committee to make information on sexual harassment claims public, Guest and DeSaulnier said in a statement it would have a chilling effect for victims. The resolution was ultimately tabled.

On Monday, the panel released a statement reaffirming its commitment to taking allegations of sexual misconduct seriously — and a list of publicly disclosed sexual misconduct investigations dating back to 1976. Many of those cases were closed without resolution because the member under scrutiny resigned from office before the committee could conclude the case.

One lawmaker who has served on the Ethics Committee, who requested anonymity to describe the panel’s private operations, argued that disclosure of sexual misconduct cases can harm potential victims who may not want their cases brought before the panel in the first place.

This explanation is largely falling on deaf ears from members who want more transparency and accountability, though, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) calling the Monday release of previously disclosed sexual misconduct allegations against House members an inadequate “cleanup job.”

Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), a member of the Ethics Committee and a former federal prosecutor, suggested that improving the panel’s internal systems for handling sexual harassment claims might be a lost cause.

“I think the ugly truth is there’s no process that handles this well that I’ve seen, whether it’s state courts, federal courts, internal corporate investigations, Congress or the Senate,” he said.

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Congress

Senate launches budget debate

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Senate Republicans opened debate Tuesday on a fiscal blueprint meant to pave the way for passage of a party-line immigration enforcement funding bill later this year.

The Senate voted 52-46 to advance the budget resolution, which Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) unveiled earlier Tuesday. It instructs House and Senate committees to write legislation expected to deliver about $70 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other agencies.

The Senate is expected to give the measure final approval this week before leaving town. The chamber could move to a marathon voting session, known as a vote-a-rama, as soon as Wednesday, though plenty of Republicans are betting that it won’t start until Thursday.

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Congress

Cherfilus-McCormick resigns amid ethics investigation

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Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) has resigned in the face of corruption charges at home and calls for her ouster in Washington, she announced in a statement on Tuesday.

News broke minutes before the House Ethics Committee was about to meet for a public hearing Tuesday afternoon to determine a punishment for the third-term Democrat, who was charged with stealing $5 million in Covid relief funds.

Cherfilus-McCormick said in a statement the Ethics proceedings did not constitute a “fair process” and that she was “choos[ing] to step aside” rather than “play these political games.”

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