The Dictatorship
Trump named five goals for Iran war but has achieved only one. Is Iran winning?
President Donald Trump announced the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran three months ago this week. In a brief late-night speech from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Feb. 28, Trump laid out five goals for the conflict that he and his aides have since repeated. The president also briefly described a sixth goal that rarely has been mentioned.
Whether the United States has achieved those goals is the focus of fierce debate. Democrats have declared the war a debacle. Trump and his aides have declared it a resounding and complete success and have said media coverage that questions that success is “treasonous.”
“The media here, not all of it but much of it, wants you to think just 19 days into this conflict that we’re somehow spinning toward an endless abyss or a forever war or a quagmire,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a March 19 press conference. “Nothing could be further from the truth.”
A review of the current status of the conflict and interviews with experts suggests the Trump administration has achieved only one of the five goals the president himself outlined on Feb. 28. And the administration’s rarely mentioned sixth goal — regime change by way of an uprising by Iranians — appears to have been abandoned.
The final details of any peace agreement will clarify what the U.S. has achieved after striking more than 13,500 Iranian targets. As negotiations drag on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, some experts are arguing that Iran, not the U.S., has won the war, an outcome that seemed virtually impossible at its outset.
“I think Iran won the war,” Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, told MS NOW. “Trump did not accomplish any of his goals.”
Below, each goal outlined in Trump’s Feb. 28 speech is followed by analysis from experts regarding whether the goal has been achieved.
‘Annihilate their Navy’
Status: Partially Achieved
Experts agree with publicly released U.S. intelligence assessments that U.S. and Israeli air strikes have decimated Iran’s traditional navy. The overwhelming majority of large surface ships that Iran fielded have been sunk, with more than 160 Iranian vessels struck and 90% of its regular fleet destroyed, according to U.S. Central Command.
CENTCOM Commander Adm. Bradley Cooper told Congress on May 14 that the U.S. conducted more than 700 airstrikes on Iranian naval mine targets, eliminating more than 90% of its mine inventory.
“Iran’s navy can no longer claim to be a maritime power, and it cannot project into the Gulf of Oman or the Indian Ocean,” Cooper said, despite the country’s continued hold over the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran retains nuisance capability — harassment, low-end drone and rocket attacks, and residual proxy support — but it no longer possesses the means to threaten major regional operations or to deter U.S. freedom of action in the air or maritime domains.”
Cooper assessed that the Iranian navy would be unable to rebuild for five to 10 years, adding it “likely will not get back to its previous size for a full generation.”
But U.S. intelligence agencies believe that hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboats have not been destroyed, The New York Times reported. And Iranian speedboats were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday before they were sunk by U.S. forces, a U.S. official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive information, told MS NOW.
“While the U.S. destroyed Iran’s ocean-going navy,” Brew said, “the much more important small-boat fleet managed by the IRGC Navy remains largely intact.”
‘Destroy their missiles’
Status: Not Achieved
“We destroyed or rendered non-mission-capable Iran’s fixed-wing airfields, hangars, fuel storage and munitions stockpiles, and we knocked out 82% of its air defense missile systems, along with the radar and command architecture that tied them together,” Cooper told Congress. He described Iran’s air defense forces as “functionally and operationally irrelevant.”
Initial U.S. intelligence assessments estimated that air strikes have destroyed or buried 70% of Iran’s land-based, short-, intermediate- and long-range missile stockpiles. But as the current ceasefire has dragged on, Iran has apparently dug out its buried missiles.
More recent intelligence assessments have found that 70% of Iran’s stockpile and its mobile missile launchers have survived the war, The Washington Post reported. And Iran has restored access to 30 of the 33 missile sites built along the Strait of Hormuz, which could attack oil tankers and U.S. Navy ships, the Times reported.
“If those assessments are accurate, it would suggest the campaign imposed real military costs on Iran but did not fundamentally eliminate its missile capability,” David Cattler, a former senior NATO and Pentagon official, told MS NOW. “The larger strategic question is whether the operation produced lasting changes in deterrence and Iranian behavior — or primarily imposed delay and bought time.”
‘Raze their missile industry to the ground’
Status: Achieved
Expert and U.S. intelligence assessments generally agree this is the one goal the U.S. has achieved. According to CENTCOM’s latest statistics, the U.S. has struck 90% of Iran’s weapons factories and has destroyed 80% of its missile facilities and 80% of its nuclear industrial base.
“With 90% of its defense industrial base destroyed, Iran won’t be able to reconstitute for years,” Cooper told Congress. “We damaged or destroyed over 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base. More than 1,450 strikes on weapons manufacturing facilities set the regime’s ability to build and stockpile ballistic missiles and long-range drones back by years.”
‘Ensure that the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region’
Status: Not Achieved
“The supply chain from Tehran to the proxies has been broken,” Cooper testified, although Iran has not agreed to stop funding or supporting terrorist groups in the Middle East.
One possible positive outcome of the Iran war could be a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Israel and Lebanon. Though the shaky ceasefire has been disrupted by fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, another round of talks between military and political officials is expected in Washington in the coming days, as negotiations have shown more progress — and promise — than the Iran nuclear talks.
Seemingly absent from those talks: addressing Iran’s military and financial support for its other proxy groups across the Middle East. Even if the U.S. can solidify a deal between Israel and Lebanon that results in the disarmament of Hezbollah, Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen would still pose a threat to Israel, U.S. forces in the region and shipping routes.
‘Ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon’
Status: Not Achieved
The issue of Iran’s nuclear program remains the most contentious part of the negotiations, according to experts. U.S. officials have pushed for a commitment from Iran to hand over its roughly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium. Iranian officials have apparently declined to make any concession regarding their nuclear program and said they want a 60-day ceasefire and a second round of talks to focus on Iran’s nuclear program.
Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, a moderate Republican and the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a social media post that the “rumored 60-day ceasefire” would be a “disaster.”
The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!
— Senator Roger Wicker (@SenatorWicker) May 23, 2026
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a longtime Iran hawk, said any agreement that allows Iran to retain its enriched uranium or receive “fees” or “tolls” from ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz would be disastrous.
“If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime – still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America,’ now receiving billions of dollars,” he said, “being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.”
‘To the great proud people of Iran … take over your government’
Status: Not Achieved
Trump has rarely repeated his call for Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government since his Feb. 28 address. But in a confusing statement at his Cabinet meeting Wednesday, Trump said he had not sought regime change, then said he had achieved it. He also said Iran’s new, more hardline leaders are “smarter” and “much more reasonable.”
“We didn’t set out for regime change, but by the fact that we’re dealing with a totally different group of people than we were at the beginning … This is regime change,” Trump said. “How can you have a stronger regime change than that?”
Cooper argued in his congressional testimony that more than 2,000 strikes against Iran’s command-and-control structures succeeded in creating “leadership vacuums, paralysis and internal confusion.”
But some Trump supporters have acknowledged that the Iranian regime could increase its influence in region simply by surviving. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., another longtime Iran hawk, said in an online post that Iran could emerge from the war more powerful because it has shown it has the ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
“If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure,” Graham said, referring to missiles, “then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate[[sic]force requiring a diplomatic solution.”
“Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate,” Graham added, urging Trump to “get this right.”
Brew stood by his view that, by defying the U.S. and keeping the strait closed for three months, Iran has already won the war at a strategic level.
“The damage done to Iran’s military is significant, but Iran can and will rebuild,” he said. “Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and keep it closed, and to retain this position during negotiations with the United States is a huge strategic win for Tehran.”
David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW and a two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News.
Julia Jester covers politics for MS NOW and is based in Washington, D.C.
The Senate Judiciary Committee postponed a vote on acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s nomination, a spokesperson said late Wednesday, as two retiring Republicans on the panel dug in over President Donald Trump’s personal “anti-weaponization” deal with the government he runs.
Sen. Chuck Grassley’s decision to delay the committee vote that had been set for Thursday marks a setback for one of Trump’s highest-profile Cabinet nominees, at the hands of Texas Sen. John Cornyn and Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a pair of Republicans set to leave the chamber next year.
“Chairman Grassley works to set President Trump’s nominees up for success in committee, not failure. Senators Cornyn and Tillis want written assurances from the Department of Justice regarding the Trump-IRS settlement,” the committee spokesperson said.
Blanche’s nomination to permanently head the Department of Justice needs the support of either Cornyn or Tillis to make it out of the committee to a vote by the full Senate, assuming all Democrats remain opposed.
“Why don’t you call over the Department of Justice and tell them they have one hour and 50 minutes to get me what I asked for,” Cornyn told reporters Wednesday afternoon amid the hardening standoff over his demand that Blanche and the DOJ put in writing a commitment never to pursue the president’s prized “anti-weaponization” fund, and to clarify the terms of Trump’s personal deal with the Internal Revenue Service.
Tillis told MS NOW that the conversations were complicated by the need for the Justice Department to get “several parties” to agree on the language of the statement Cornyn and Tillis are seeking.
“What I’ve advised the chair, and I would assume Senator Cornyn said something similar, is that we’re not prepared to vote yes yet,” he added.
“The Department has been in regular communication with Committee members for weeks, and we look forward to continuing to work productively with Senators to address any concerns,” a Justice Department spokesperson said in response to the decision to postpone the committee vote.
Cornyn was set to meet with Blanche on Wednesday morning, but the meeting was called off after Blanche failed to meet the senator’s demand for written proposals to modify the controversial settlement agreement he brokered between Trump and the IRS. The Republican senator is set to leave Congress when his term ends in January after a bruising May primary loss to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Trump’s chosen candidate.
“Maybe John Cornyn’s upset with me because I didn’t endorse him,” Trump told reporters Wednesday afternoon in the Oval Office. “I don’t know what it is, but I haven’t heard that there’s a problem. I heard (Blanche) is going through quite nicely.”
Cornyn made clear to Blanche during his confirmation hearing that he will not get his support until he agrees to reopen and modify the settlement. Due to the committee’s narrow Republican majority, one GOP “no” vote is enough to sink Blanche’s nomination.
The senator has asked Blanche to provide proof that the proposed nearly $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund established as part of the deal between Trump and the IRS is formally dead, and he has also demanded Blanche narrow the tax audit immunity provisions the settlement afforded to Trump and his family.
Blanche has publicly stated that his department has dropped the fund, but he and the DOJ have dodged requests from Cornyn and a federal judge to put that in writing.
After announcing his meeting with Blanche would not take place Wednesday morning, Cornyn told reporters that changes from Blanche “in a modified release form” would be acceptable, but that “for some reason … they simply refuse to do it,” referring to the DOJ.
Shortly after the meeting was called off, a Justice Department official told MS NOW that the department “provided a written proposal to Senator Cornyn’s staff yesterday following ongoing discussion with both the Committee and the Senator’s office.”
Cornyn said that proposal was “not responsive” to his demands because it did not address the tax audit immunity provisions in the settlement, one of his key demands.
In May, Blanche signed an addendum as part of the deal that granted Trump, his family and his businesses immunity from pending IRS tax audits. That agreement, which has been decried by former IRS officials and legal experts as unlawful self-dealing, is being contested in federal court.
Cornyn noted that Blanche testified under oath that he could meet the request during his confirmation hearing.
“Maybe they think I’m just going to give up or you know, go along, but they’re mistaken,” Cornyn said when asked why he thinks the DOJ could be slow-walking his request.
Kevin Frey contributed to this report.
Sydney Carruth is a breaking news reporter covering national politics and policy for MS NOW. You can send her tips from a non-work device on Signal at SydneyCarruth.46 or follow her work on X and Bluesky.
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.
Ebony Davis is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW based in Washington, D.C. She previously worked at BLN as a campaign reporter covering elections and politics.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived this week for his tour of Washington, he may have had a mission in mind.
Netanyahu needed to overcome his newly diminished stature and waning influence over his once close friend President Donald Trump as both leaders grapple with the unpopularity of a war they started together and is escaping their control.
His meeting at the White House with Trump on Tuesday, which was closed to the press, was the first face-to-face encounter between the two allies since the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack against Iran on Feb. 28.
Trump gave him a muted welcome and afterwards simply described the meeting as “very good.” “Obviously, many important subjects were discussed,” the president wrote on Truth Social.
Rather than an intimate one-on-one setting, the Oval Office was full of top U.S. officials — Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
But Netanyahu continued the full court press on the Trump administration.
Over the course of two days, in addition to seeing Trump and attending Sen. Lindsey Graham’s funeral at the Capitol, Netanyahu also met separately with Vance, Hegseth, and Rubio, White House and Israeli officials confirmed to MS NOW.
The Israeli prime minister’s slate of meetings with key U.S. national security officials comes at a pivotal moment in the Iran conflict as tensions escalate in the region and Americans increasingly sour on the war. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows 60% of American voters opposing U.S. military action against Iran and 74% against sending U.S. ground troops into Iran.
Not only does Trump face pressure as Republicans face an uphill battle to retain congressional control in this fall’s midterms, Netanyahu’s fate as prime minister is at stake in Israel’s upcoming September elections – and he can’t afford to lose Trump’s favor.
The talks largely focused on what to do next as Iran continues to menace shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate against American bases in the region and launch attacks on Gulf allies.
According to a senior Israeli official who was granted anonymity to describe the closed-door meeting, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did not come to a final decision after discussing three paths forward: get a “good deal” focused on Iran’s nuclear program and enriched material, have no deal and instead continue the blockade and economic pressure, or take escalated military action.
But Netanyahu did not tell Trump what he should do – nor did he express a preference.
The senior Israeli official noted Netanyahu has not ruled out diplomacy – as long as it is coupled with “very strong pressures,” calling the push to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program “a contest of will and a contest of force.”
“There are ways of squeezing them and squeezing them and squeezing them and negotiating at the same time,” the official said.
Netanyahu did not present President Trump with new intelligence regarding the underground Iranian nuclear facility Pickaxe Mountain, per the senior Israeli official, noting the U.S. and Israel already are constantly sharing intelligence – and know where Iran’s highly enriched material is. “We don’t think it’s moved, and I think we have a pretty good grasp on that,” the official said.
During their meeting on Tuesday, Trump and Netanyahu discussed ways Israel and the U.S. can work together to stop Iran’s nuclear program and get the Strait of Hormuz open to maritime trade, the senior Israeli official said.
The two leaders also discussed a third goal: to continue to undermine the Iranian regime and “possibly create future conditions for a change in that area.” U.S. officials have backed away from pursuing paths that would overthrow the current leadership, but Netanyahu still believes that could happen.
“The chasm that has been created between the people and the regime is not about to be closed,” the senior Israeli official said of Netanyahu’s thinking.
Netanyahu advised Trump in February that Israeli intelligence indicated launching strikes against Iran would lead to the toppling of the Islamic Republic’s regime – and five months later, the slain ayatollah’s son retains power with a close circle of hardliners, calling into question the accuracy of Israel’s intelligence apparatus.
But the senior Israeli official said at the time, Netanyahu did not promise the Iranian people would take fate into their own hands following a coordinated attack. Rather, he chose his words carefully and said that an attack could create conditions to “advance the probability or the possibility that that would happen.”
The conditions needed for the Iranian regime to fall, “did not materialize,” the official told MS NOW, adding, “not for lack of insight, but for either operational failure or decisions that were made.”
Despite Netanyahu insisting Israel and the U.S. are on the same page, differences still remain: the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and the Saudi nuclear arrangement did not come up during Wednesday’s White House meeting, according to a second Israeli official granted anonymity to describe sensitive discussions.
Meanwhile, the conflict continues to spread, with an Iranian drone attacking a U.S. gas storage tanker off the coast of Egypt on Wednesday.
Trump indicated he would not let Iran’s latest action slide, telling reporters on Wednesday that the U.S. would retaliate against Iran even as he leaves room for diplomatic talks to resume.
“It’s our turn, and we’ll see if we get there with an agreement at some point,” Trump said. “But we’re going to hit them very hard.”
As for what it would take for Israel to join the U.S. strikes, the senior Israeli official said that if Israel is attacked by Iran, “We will respond very, very forcefully and very quickly. And I think Iran would make a great mistake.”
Julia Jester covers politics for MS NOW and is based in Washington, D.C.
International rage over FIFA’s close ties to President Donald Trump has reached a fever pitch after soccer’s governing body announced a plan to sell a significant stake to an investor group led by Joshua Kushner, the brother of Trump’s son-in-law.
The president and his family have all but turned the White House into their personal piggy bank. And FIFA — which has its own sordid history of corruption — seems to have made itself a party to Trump’s self-enrichment under Gianni Infantino’s leadership, such as by paying for space inside Trump Tower in New York. (The organization has defended the office rental as a World Cup outpost.)
Soccer is seen by many as a unifying game. But Trump’s incorporation of FIFA into his political dynasty is threatening that idea.
FIFA has announced plans to sell a large minority stake in a new company that will run its main events, including the World Cup and Club World Cup, as part of a plan to triple the amount of development money it dishes out to its 211 member associations.
Under the proposals — which are subject to approval by a majority of those national associations and FIFA’s 37-member council — a new entity called FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE) will take over all commercial operations, while FIFA remains the game’s global governing body and retains a majority stake in FFE.
A press release from FIFA confirmed the plans and said Thrive Eternal, which was launched by Joshua Kushner, is expected to lead the investment group that would control FIFA Forward Enterprise. FIFA did not clarify why Thrive Eternal was selected, and Kushner was already dabbling in sports.
But Trump basically has already given son-in-law Jared Kushner carte blanche to dictate U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East while simultaneously hatching business plans in the region. (Jared Kushner has denied any conflicts of interest.)
Joshua Kushner reportedly has been a major donor to Democrats. But, predictably, the idea of another Kushner becoming financially entwined with the World Cup — the world’s most popular sporting event — and basically being dropped into a position of global significance isn’t going over well. Several other soccer governing bodies have expressed concerns, including Europe’s UEFA.
“This crosses a line that football’s governing institutions should never cross,” UEFA said in a statement about The Athletic’s report, adding: “The soul and governance of football are not assets to trade — especially with zero transparency as to who gains financially. None of us are the owners of football. It is not FIFA’s to sell.”
Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee also rebuked the plan, writing on X: “Apparently the fake Peace Prize and giant lease with Trump Tower weren’t enough — now Infantino performs a kickback hat trick by pursuing a multibillion-dollar deal with Jared Kushner’s brother to sell ownership stakes in the World Cup to private investors.”
FIFA, Donald Trump’s favorite corrupt racketeering enterprise in world sports, is now going directly into business with the Trump family!
Apparently the fake Peace Prize and giant lease with Trump Tower weren’t enough—now Infantino performs a kickback hat trick by pursuing a… https://t.co/knSZibuMea
— House Judiciary Dems (@HouseJudiciary) July 28, 2026
Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., has already launched an investigation into the FIFA leader’s relationship with the Trump administration, while dozens of European lawmakers — citing concerns about “potential breaches of political neutrality” — have called for the FIFA Ethics Committee to investigate Infantino. This new proposal seems unlikely to assuage those concerns.
But what it does seem likely to do is fuel global anger toward the U.S. — the kind that has been growing since Trump retook office.
And when you consider that, it’s truly remarkable how the same MAGA movement whose members whined for years about politics mixing with sports is now in lockstep with a president who seems dead-set on casting his shadow over every sports event he can.
This post on X basically sums up the foul stench around FIFA’s latest proposal.
Sepp Blatter was Infantino’s predecessor as FIFA president and oversaw the organization amid some of its many scandals. When heof all people, is warning about how Trump and Infantino’s relationship is “deeply damaging” soccer, it’s a sign of how far FIFA has descended into the gutter.
Ja’han Jones is an MS NOW opinion blogger. He previously wrote The ReidOut Blog.
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