Congress
Johnson’s next margin headache: Manchin-style Republicans
Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats’ priorities under President Joe Biden.
Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?
- Frustrated conservatives: There are scores of examples just this Congress of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn’t align with their ideology, didn’t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee — Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year.
- SALT-y big staters: Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They’ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including
Mike Lawler of New York,Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey andYoung Kim of California.
- Higher office aspirants: Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson’s stable of votes if they’re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.
- The actuarial caucus: Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans:
Hal Rogers of Kentucky,John Carter of Texas andVirginia Foxx of North Carolina.
When will we know what Johnson has to work with? After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California’s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump’s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.
Congress
Some Democrats plan boycott of Trump’s State of the Union
A slate of Democrats plan to skip President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress next week and instead will attend a counterprogramming event on the National Mall that same evening.
The rally, dubbed the “People’s State of the Union,” will include lawmakers who skipped Trump’s first and second inaugurations, underscoring a small but consistent block of Democrats who continue to opt out of the president’s most high-profile events.
Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Reps. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Greg Casar (D-Texas), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) and Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) are expected to join the rally, organizers said Wednesday.
“These aren’t normal times and showing up for this speech puts a veneer of legitimacy on the corruption and lawlessness that has defined his second term,” Murphy said in a statement.
Ansari, who walked out of Trump’s address to Congress last year, said the rally continues her earlier protest.
“Americans deserve an honest account of the state of our union,” she said.
She said she plans to bring in a guest who was targeted by the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
The liberal group MoveOn is hosting the rally alongside other organizations, including the popular Democratic-aligned podcasting and media network MeidasTouch.
The White House dismissed the boycott, saying Democrats have routinely worked to thwart the administration’s policy goals.
“It’s not a surprise that they refuse to celebrate and honor the Americans who have benefited from the commonsense policies Republicans have governed with,” said White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson.
Democrats have boycotted a series of Trump’s biggest moments throughout both of his terms. Of the dozens of House Democrats who skipped Trump’s first inauguration, 31 were still in Congress and seven chose to attend his second one, signaling a faded resistance from the first Trump era.
Trump is set to deliver his address Tuesday night, even as a partial government shutdown continues, prompting concerns from some senior Hill Republicans and White House officials about the optics.
But Republicans also see the address as an opportunity to shift the focus away from mounting negative headlines — including fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minnesota and scrutiny over the release of the Epstein files — and instead bolster its economic messaging ahead of the midterms.
Congress
Republicans sit tight as Trump pushes for mail voting crackdown
President Donald Trump is pushing Congress to end mail voting as Americans have come to know it. So far, Republican lawmakers aren’t heeding his calls.
Trump has long railed against the expansion of vote-by-mail, arguing despite scant evidence that it is rife with fraud and suggesting it was responsible in part for his 2020 election loss. Since retaking office, he has repeatedly called for action — most recently Monday night to reporters on Air Force One.
“Why would you want mail-in ballots if you know it’s corrupt?” Trump said. “It’s a corrupt system.”
But other Republicans don’t see it that way — many of their own voters have voted by mail consistently for decades. So far, the type of blanket ban on mail voting Trump wants has not gained traction on Capitol Hill as GOP lawmakers counsel for a more targeted approach.
“I support the use of mail-in voting,” said Rep. Mike Lawler, a New York Republican facing a tight reelection contest. “The idea that some states just mail out ballots without any requests is absurd, but the use of mail-in balloting, I do not have an objection.”
A sweeping elections bill the House passed last week, the SAVE America Act, included strict proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration and new photo-ID rules for casting ballots.
But it did not address voting by mail — even though Trump publicly called for a crackdown in a Truth Social post just three days before the vote: “NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS (EXCEPT FOR ILLNESS, DISABILITY, MILITARY, OR TRAVEL!)”
Behind the scenes, the White House pushed to include language in the bill that would prohibit mail-in voting, according to three people granted anonymity to discuss the issue. But that risked losing support from some Republicans and endangering the bill’s ability to pass the narrowly divided House, and it was ultimately left out.
A White House website touting the bill still lists “No Mail-in Ballots” as one of its features.
Asked about the discrepancy, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement that Trump “has repeatedly urged Congress to pass the SAVE Act and other legislative proposals that would establish a uniform standard of photo ID for voting, prohibit no-excuse mail-in voting, and end the practice of ballot harvesting to ensure the safety and security of our elections.”
Several House Republicans said in interviews over the past week they sympathized with Trump’s push to crack down on mailed ballots, but many couched their words carefully. A number hail from states like Florida that have a long history of expansive mail voting and little evidence that the practice has been abused.
Even as the president pushed to curtail mailed ballots, the RNC and state Republican parties worked to take advantage of the practice during the 2024 campaign to increase voter turnout — and they are planning to do much the same in 2026.
Instead, many congressional Republicans insist that Trump is really targeting states like California, Oregon and Utah that conduct their elections almost entirely by mail. Others emphasize the need for exceptions, as Trump has acknowledged, for cases of illness, military service and other reasons they view as legitimate, as well as the other election changes Trump is backing.
“We have to be very cautious about mail-in-ballot voting,” Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) said in an interview. “But I think that if we get the registration process correct, then that’ll fix a lot of this.”
GOP Rep. Byron Donalds, who is running for governor in Florida, said his state’s laws should serve as a model for the country. Florida voters have to request a mail-in ballot and include identification. But there is no limitation on who can request a mail ballot along the lines of what Trump is proposing.
“In Florida, we treat ballots like they’re evidence in a trial,” Donalds said. “Other states need to follow that. … I think that’s what the White House is referencing. You just can’t have ballots out there in the ether.”
Another elections bill moving through the House, the Make Elections Great Again Act, does include provisions dealing with mail voting — including language aimed at preventing “ballot harvesting” where third parties collect ballots on voters’ behalf. It would also ban “universal” vote-by-mail where ballots are sent to all registered voters — but would not narrow who could request a mailed ballot.
That policy appears to be more in keeping with what most GOP lawmakers envision for an elections overhaul — and they insist that is what Trump in fact supports.
“If you’re sick and you can’t get to the polling [place], he wants you to have a ballot. If you’re a military member, he wants you to have a ballot,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) said of the president. “Who he doesn’t want to have a ballot is the illegal alien that registered or even a lawful alien who got a driver’s license to be registered to vote and get a mail-in ballot.”
The MEGA Act is sponsored by House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) and was the subject of a recent hearing. But it has not yet moved through the panel or been scheduled for the House floor.
The SAVE America Act also appears likely to stall in the Senate, despite a conservative effort to utilize a so-called talking filibuster to skirt Democratic opposition there.
Trump appears to be recognizing the obstacles to his elections agenda on Capitol Hill.
In a Friday Truth Social post, he suggested he would take executive action to implement “Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not,” while also mentioning “No Mail-In Ballots, with exceptions for Military, Disability, Illness, or Travel.”
But to Republicans like Lawler, who voted for the SAVE America Act and is facing a tough reelection fight this year, the GOP’s efforts going forward would be best spent making sure “people get out and vote.”
“If they vote by mail, if they vote early, if they vote on Election Day, the objective is to get them out and vote,” he said.
Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Congress
Republicans worry shutdown will overshadow Trump’s State of the Union
President Donald Trump is barreling ahead with the first State of the Union address of his second term, despite concerns among Republicans that it’s set to hit during a partial government shutdown.
The speech, set for 11 days from now, is poised to land in the middle of a funding lapse at the Department of Homeland Security – the product of a standoff with Democrats over immigration enforcement that the White House had hoped to avoid. Behind the scenes, some administration officials and senior Capitol Hill Republicans are quietly fretting about the optics, according to six people granted anonymity to describe private conversations.
The concerned Republicans believe it would be less than ideal for Trump to stand in the well of the House and declare that the state of the union is strong when a critical part of the federal government remains shuttered.
“It doesn’t exactly scream ‘a functioning GOP trifecta,’” said one House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Asked whether postponing the address was under discussion, a senior White House official said Friday, “Not as of yet.” Senior Hill Republicans believe the president is full steam ahead as well. In 2019, Trump publicly battled with then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi for more than a week over whether to delay his State of the Union address during an earlier government shutdown. He eventually relented.
Republicans expect Speaker Mike Johnson, who is responsible for extending the formal invitation to the president to address a joint session of Congress, not to delay the speech unless the White House specifically asks.
The latest shutdown, which will begin when DHS funding lapses overnight, is expected to drag on until at least the week of Trump’s Feb. 24 State of the Union speech because the White House and Senate Democrats appear to be far apart on how far to rein in Trump’s immigration enforcement activities as part of a funding agreement.
Both sides are continuing to negotiate, but lawmakers left Washington Thursday for a week-long recess with little expectation they would be called back early. The address is scheduled for one day after lawmakers return to Capitol Hill.
White House officials and senior Hill Republicans have been eager for Trump to use the prime time address to tamp down a swirl of negative headlines over the past few weeks, from the fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minnesota to the release of the files of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. They instead want to focus on the GOP’s economic messaging heading into the midterms.
Some Republicans also see it as an opportunity to blame Democrats for the DHS funding lapse, which impacts TSA baggage screeners, who will work without pay, FEMA and the Coast Guard.
“President Trump has been, and always will be, on the side of the American people,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Fox News interview Friday. “He wants our government to remain open, and unfortunately, it appears that Democrats are barreling our government towards another shutdown for political and partisan reasons.”
Among the considerations for Republicans is how difficult Democrats plan to make things for Trump during the speech itself. Senate Democrats are having discussions about whether to boycott the event and talked it over during a closed-door lunch this week, according to two people granted anonymity to share details of the private conversations. Some members of the caucus are currently expected to attend, though a swath is undecided.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Friday declined to say whether he believed the speech should go forward during a DHS shutdown.
“That’s an open question,” he told reporters. “We’ll have more to say about that next week.”
Jeffries advised Democrats during a private leadership meeting earlier this week that his members should either sit in “silent defiance” or attend alternative programming, according to two people granted anonymity to describe his comments.
Heckling has become increasingly common from a president’s political opponents during State of the Union speeches.
Johnson pleaded with his own members to maintain decorum during former President Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union appearance, only for several House GOP hard-liners to openly taunt him. During Trump’s address to Congress last year, Democrats showed up with signage and jeers, with multiple members walking out either on their own accord or at the insistence of Capitol Police.
Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), who stood up to yell at the president at the very beginning of Trump’s speech last year, was later censured by the House for his actions.
Asked Thursday whether he would attend this year’s State of the Union address, Green said, “I’m not making an announcement right now.”
Eli Stokols and Diana Nerozzi contributed to this report.
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