Politics

‘It would be catastrophic’: A Supreme Court decision could upend Alaska’s crucial Senate race

Published

6 months ago

April 12, 2026

In the villages that dot Kodiak Island off the coast of southwest Alaska, the post arrives by plane. Mailing a ballot to the archipelago’s hub takes at least two days — if the region’s frequent storms haven’t grounded air traffic.

It’s a common problem across Alaska. And it’s a big reason why the state allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted for up to 10 days afterward, a critical reprieve for voters in remote communities that are disconnected from the state’s highway system and sometimes even polling locations.

That’s why Alaskans across the political spectrum are sounding the alarm about a pending Supreme Court ruling. A majority of justices appear to be leaning toward barring states from counting late-arriving ballots, a ruling that would upend voting laws in Alaska and more than a dozen other states. That could potentially disenfranchise hundreds of voters in Kodiak’s distant villages and thousands more across the remote reaches of The Last Frontier — and upend Alaska’s election process in a state that could determine Senate control.

“This matters a lot in a place like Kodiak, because absentee voting, it’s not a convenience here,” said Jared Griffin, the mayor of Kodiak Island Borough, who is an independent. “It’s going to really hurt those rural, remote voters.”

A ban on late-arriving ballots could have an outsized impact on Alaska Natives, many of whom live in rural villages that already experience delays in receiving and returning ballots. It’s a scenario that’s sparking bipartisan fears of depressed turnout in the state’s hotly competitive Senate race between former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. The contest could decide control of the chamber.

Democrats in particular are crying foul — accusing Republicans of pushing changes that could disenfranchise members of a significant Democratic-leaning voting bloc.

“It would be catastrophic. It’s mean-spirited,” Eric Croft, the chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, said of the potential effect on rural and Native voters. “It would hurt participation in rural Alaska. And Mary Peltola’s very strong in her Native communities, and in the community she comes from. So I think it will hurt her.”

‘Blunt-force trauma’

President Donald Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024. But both sides see a competitive Senate race shaping up.

Peltola holds a narrow edge over Sullivan in the handful of public polls testing the race so far, leading the Republican by 5 percentage points in an Alaska Survey Research poll from mid-March. National Democrats see Peltola as a major recruiting win, and have already put over $3 million into boosting her campaign, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

Republicans are shoveling money into the state as well, a sign they don’t see Sullivan as a lock. Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Majority Leader John Thune, pledged this week to pump $15 million into the race — a staggering sum for the state of 740,000 people.

Core to Peltola’s hopes of flipping the state — and possibly the Senate — are running up the score in the Bush region, the term Alaskans use for the a vast expanse of isolated villages from the Aleutian Islands to the North Slope that are cut off from the state’s road system and include much of its indigenous communities.

Alaska Natives make up roughly 20 percent of the state’s electorate and are a powerful force in its politics. They helped propel Peltola, who is Yup’ik and has deep roots in the Bethel region, to her 2022 special-election upset to serve out the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young’s term in the House. In the November election that year, Peltola swept the vast majority of predominantly Native precincts, according to an analysis by Split Ticket. They’ve also backed GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski against right-wing challengers; Sullivan has ties with the communities as well.

Many Alaska Natives rely on voting by mail, and activists see it as a critical tool in rural stretches where voter turnout is often lower than in more urban areas. That includes the region Peltola represented in the state House.

Ballots come in late from all over the state where more than four-fifths of communities are cut off from the main road system. But they’re tardy from rural and Native communities at a rate two-to-three-times higher than those coming from mainly urban and non-Native areas, according to a brief that a group of Native organizations filed to the Supreme Court. In state House District 38, which Peltola represented, nearly four-fifths of all absentee ballots came in after Election Day.

None of those late-arriving ballots would be counted if the Supreme Court strikes down a five-business-day grace period in Mississippi, in the case brought by the Republican National Committee and backed by the Trump administration.

“They want a ballot in their hands the day of election [so] you know the winner that night. That’s difficult,” said Democratic state Rep. Maxine Dibert, an Alaska Native who represents a district in and around Fairbanks, in the rural center of the state. “There’s already barriers to voting.”

The ruling, which could come this summer, could upend election administration in Alaska just two months before the state’s primaries — a worst-case scenario that prompted the state’s Republican attorney general, Stephen Cox, to ask the court to issue “clear parameters for Alaska” in its eventual ruling. Though Cox did not take sides in the case, he stressed the “unique challenges” Alaskans face in voting in a state where volatile weather can knock out mail services and polling locations sometimes lack the staff to open.

Peltola’s campaign said in a statement that she would work to ensure “Alaskans are able to make their voices heard” in November.

“Mary believes everyone who is eligible to vote should have access to the ballot box and one-size-fits-all rules from DC rarely work for large rural states like Alaska,” campaign spokesperson Harry Child said. “Whether by road, plane, or boat, we’ll be reaching Alaskans where they’re at and making sure they can participate in our safe and secure elections.”

Alaskan leaders are also bracing for the far less likely passage of the SAVE America Act, a set of voting strictures being pushed by Trump and his allies that state officials and local activists warn could further disenfranchise rural and Native populations. The bill is stalled in the Senate in part over the objections of Alaska’s senior senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, though Sullivan supports it.

“We’re going through a lot of blunt-force trauma with this multi-pronged effort to not meet the voters where we’re at,” said Michelle Sparck, who runs Get Out the Native Vote, a nonpartisan group dedicated to improving Native turnout.

Senate stakes

Murkowski, who has drawn strong Native support across her campaigns and is backing Sullivan in his reelection bid over her former ally Peltola, has slammed her party’s twin efforts to curtail mail voting and tighten identification requirements as a “level of voter intimidation.” And she has warned a Supreme Court ruling eliminating the grace period for mail ballots would hit her state harder than any other.

“I’ve got a state that is very reliant on mail-in voting,” she told Blue Light News, “and we want to continue that.”

Sullivan has his own ties to Native communities. He’s won the backing of several federation leaders in their personal capacities. His wife, Julie Fate Sullivan, is Koyukon Athabascan and hails from an influential family.

A spokesperson for Sullivan said the senator believes mail ballots cast by or on Election Day — even if they are received afterward — should be counted.

“Senator Sullivan has a record dating back to his time as Alaska’s Attorney General of defending voting rights for Alaskans, particularly in rural and Alaska Native communities. He believes that every eligible vote cast before or on Election Day should be counted,” Sullivan spokesperson Amanda Coyne said in a statement. “He also applauds Alaska Attorney General Stephen Cox for filing an amicus brief in this case, highlighting Alaska’s unique challenges and geography.”

Art Hackney, a veteran GOP operative who is running an outside group backing Sullivan’s reelection bid, said voters would adjust to potentially having to mail their ballots earlier. And he suggested the effect on the Senate race would be negligible.

“It’s just a matter of figuring out how to deal with it,” Hackney said. “The percentage impact, I think you can toss a coin — a few this way, a few that way. They’re both going to be fighting for [Native and rural] votes.”

But Democrats, who see Alaska as a possible linchpin to their hopes of retaking the Senate, say the restrictions could hurt Peltola on her home turf — potentially imperiling their broader midterms strategy.

They argue that Alaska has already taken steps to tighten voting rules, pointing to the sweeping and bipartisan elections overhaul bill lawmakers sent to GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy last month that would update voter rolls, create a ballot-tracking system and establish a ballot-curing process.

“These efforts do one thing and one thing only: disenfranchise people who live in rural parts of Alaska,” said Jim Lottsfeldt, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state who is not involved in the Senate race. “You could make the argument that these sort of things hurt Peltola, because as the first Native woman to be elected to statewide office, she obviously has the support of Alaska Natives. That’s a core constituency.”

Politics

Poll: Trump wants the midterms to be about him. That could backfire.

Published

5 hours ago

October 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

President Donald Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. That might backfire.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president.

It’s not uncommon for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year. But the lopsided findings are an ominous sign for Trump, who has fundamentally reshaped the GOP over the past decade and has once again staked his brand — and political capital — on delivering wins for Republicans in November.

With less than two weeks before the election, the poll suggests Republicans are pragmatic, and care more about preventing a blue wave than standing by Trump. And in a year when voter frustration over high pricesappears poised to play a major role, that distinction could prove consequential.

The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, reveals the extent to which frustration with Trump is driving Democrats: Nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will be voting “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared to just 38% of Republican voters who say they will be voting mainly to show support for Trump.

Instead, a plurality of Republican midterm voters — 48% — say their main motivation when casting a vote is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agree.

“[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.”

Half of Republicans think candidates have a better chance of winning if they align themselves with Trump rather than breaking from him, compared to just 30% who believe candidates would have a better chance of winning if they break away.

But half of Republicans also accept their candidates speaking out against the president if that’s what they need to do to win their own election. That’s compared with 37% who say candidates should remain loyal to the president and support his agenda, even if it means risking a loss.

On top of that, majorities of Republican voters say Trump himself should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues to win elections.

If it helps GOP candidates’ chances of winning, they said, the president should allow for disagreement on the speed of AI development, the cost of living, and whether the war in Iran was a good decision. That holds true for pluralities or even majorities of Trump 2024 voters who self-identify as part of the “MAGA” movement across each policy area, suggesting that even his most loyal voters want the president to let candidates distance themselves if it can help them win.

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle.

RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said “Blue Light News didn’t need to conduct a poll to know that Democrats are motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans.” She added that the GOP is “running on actual accomplishments like cutting taxes and securing the border,” while saying Democrats have made “investigations, obstruction, and impeachment” their campaign platform.

Still, the tension is playing out in real time as Republican candidates locked in competitive races walk a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s support — and that of his MAGA base — without alienating critical moderate and independent voters. They’re especially under pressure as Trump hits the campaign trail in battlegrounds and red states, with several candidates having to quietly make calculations whether it will hurt them politically to appear next to him.

“I think Republicans … are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” said a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. “There is no good answer.”

In Iowa, where voter frustration over some of Trump’s marquee policies, including tariffs and rising costs stemming from the Iran war, has mounted, Republican candidates have sought to create some distance from the president. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month.

Several other GOP candidates have also skipped Trump rallies in their home states, and many have grown increasingly wary of mentioning Trump in ads, including in red states that over the last few months have suddenly started to look competitive. In battleground Georgia, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump, avoiding public breaks with the president on policy but still limiting direct references to him in campaign ads and on the debate stage.

“I don’t know that Trump coming [to Georgia] helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson.

That leaves Republican candidates in a tricky position: Their voters are willing to accept breaking from Trump if victory is on the line, but voters — and candidates — won’t know what will cost them their race until it’s too late.

“There’s no reason to gratuitously attack the White House and make an enemy,” the national GOP operative said. “But the end game here is to get reelected, and if they have to get reelected, but the president’s annoyed at them for a period of time, they’ll get over it.”

While Republican candidates balance loyalty to Trump with the possibility of breaking away on certain issues, Democratic midterm voters remain highly motivated to vote against Trump’s agenda.

Even Trump’s endorsement of a Republican candidate seems to influence Democrats more than Republicans: Roughly 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared to 55% of Republican midterm voters who say the endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.

“The midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” said North Carolina based GOP strategist Paul Shumaker. “A lot of Republicans and swing voters feel like their expectations have not been met in helping address their economic concerns.”

Alec Hernández and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this story.

Politics

Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida?

Published

10 hours ago

October 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida?

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Politics

Democrats’ top Senate super PAC has raised $354M this year

Published

16 hours ago

October 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Democrats’ top Senate-focused super PAC will report raising $354 million through Oct. 14 — including roughly $88 million in the first two weeks of the month— as Democrats race to seize control of the upper chamber in the election’s closing weeks.

Senate Majority PAC shared their fundraising totals, which are higher than any previous cycle, with Blue Light News ahead of a Federal Election Commission deadline later Thursday. The super PAC had $32.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 14.

“This is already the strongest cycle in Senate Majority PAC’s history, and it’s arriving exactly when it counts,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We’re on the air across the battleground through Election Day, and every dollar is going toward beating price-gouging Republicans and winning back the Senate.”

That’s more than the $306 million SMP raised in the 2024 campaign cycle, according to FEC filings, its previous high.

SMP is still being outraised by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, in large part thanks to billionaire Elon Musk and other Republican megadonors. Musk gave $158 million to SLF in the third quarter, according to its most recent FEC report, and the super PAC in turn sent that money to Texas’ Senate race in order to boost the scandal-plagued GOP nominee Ken Paxton.

As of Sept. 30, SLF had raised more than $423 million for the cycle.

Democrats have been able to offset much of Republicans’ super PAC cash advantage on the airwaves because of stronger candidate fundraising.

But Republicans still have the advantage of a favorable map — and more outside money — as they hope to maintain control of at least one chamber of Congress next month.