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How the Democratic party lost the state of Florida

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How the Democratic party lost the state of Florida

After last week’s election in Florida, where Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by 13 pointsan abortion rights amendment fell 3 points shy of the 60% threshold it needed to pass, and an amendment to legalize marijuana fell 4 points short, it’s clear that Democrats here have a lot of work to do. Florida, which used to be a perennial swing state, was won by Barack Obama twice. There were razor-thin gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races after that. Now it’s a sea of red that was comfortably won by Trump.

Florida used to be a perennial swing state. Now it’s a sea of red that was comfortably won by Trump.

In a uniquely short amount of time, Vice President Kamala Harris ran an incredible campaign that energized voters, boosted downballot candidates and kept the race close for months. Even so, in Miami-Dade County, the once reliable Democratic stronghold where I live and serve as chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Executive Committee, Harris lost by more than 11 points. Trump was the first Republican to win my county since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

I believe that Harris would have been better for Floridians than Trump was or will be. I believe that the amendment guaranteeing a right to abortion would have rightly put women in charge of their own bodies. And given the horrible effects of the war on drugs, including the imprisonment of men and women for small amounts of marijuana, I believe that the amendment legalizing that drug would have been a first step in the right direction for Florida.  Though a majority of Floridians seemed to agree with me on those ballot issues, not enough people to reach the 60% threshold did, and, obviously, a clear majority of Florida voters chose Trump over Harris.

After Florida’s dramatic shift from swing state to red state, how do Democrats rebuild? How do we build support for the issues that will make Floridians’ lives better?

Those who solely blame racism and misogyny in their analysis for the results of the presidential election — that is, the loss of a Black and Asian woman — aren’t seeing the whole picture. While it will be months before we have all of the data to dissect, the results we have already point to much broader issues at play: Many Floridians feel unheard and frustrated with the status quo — and understandably so. Despite job growth and historically low unemploymentmillions of families are paying too much for rent, groceries and other essentials — and they voted in hopes that something will change.

I don’t believe that Republicans have the answers to higher prices. Like most economics experts, I believe that the policies that Trump has said he will implement will drive prices higher. But it’s also clear that my party lost the messaging war: nationwide, obviously, but also in Florida.

The problem is bigger than a given candidate or a campaign’s tactics. My party must take a beat, acknowledge the global headwinds that have been brutal for incumbent parties post-pandemic and recognize that there are very real changes we need to implement to earn voters’ trust.

Florida is home to more than 22 million people and one of the most diverse, growing populations in the country. For years, Republicans have done a better job when it comes to continued, uninterrupted community outreach and year-round voter registration. Such community presence builds genuine relationships and credibility. But it takes investment to sustain that kind of organization, and Democrats and their donors have not prioritized that work in Florida in a real way since 2012.

As a result, the registration gap has grown significantly in that time. Beyond the electoral impact, the ripple effect also means that communities that once felt comfortable voting for Democrats have shifted, leaving us less equipped to listen to and address residents’ needs and concerns.

Republicans have done a better job when it comes to continued, uninterrupted community outreach.

Democrats cannot simply show up when seeking votes, and expect to be welcomed with open arms. As the example in Miami-Dade County shows, we cannot assume certain communities are part of our “base” when we’ve not done the work to build the trust that is needed.

We’ve lost the public’s trust even though unchecked Republican leadership has failed to improve the lives of the people of this state. Rather than focus on issues such as lowering the cost of living, increasing access to affordable health care and making us more prepared and resilient in the face of more dangerous hurricanes, Republicans have embarked upon culture wars: railing against Disney and women’s studies departmentsagainst gay people and what they term “wokeness.”

But for as much as Republicans didn’t effectively address the issues that resonate with everyday people, Democrats didn’t either. Democrats must articulate clear, actionable plans that speak directly to these challenges. This means advocating for policies that not only promise relief but also actively involve the voices of those most affected by these issues.

Perhaps the greatest challenge is changing perceptions of what it means to be a Democrat in Florida. The party must work diligently to show that it is not out of touch with Floridians’ realities and that it genuinely values their input. This could involve more diverse representation within the party itself, ensuring that leadership reflects the state’s diverse population. When people see themselves represented, then they are more likely to engage and participate.

As we look ahead, we would be well served to reassess our strategic priorities. This is a moment that calls for urgency, innovation and a commitment to serve the voices that have been left out for too long. Progress is not linear, and we need to remain engaged to secure the kind of future we want to see for our country. 

Fla. state Sen. Shevrin Jones

Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones, the first openly LGBTQ+ member of the Florida Senate, represents District 34, which includes communities in the northern portion of Miami-Dade County. 

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Key Democrat seeks inspector general probe into FAA chief’s airline stock divestment

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Key Democrat seeks inspector general probe into FAA chief’s airline stock divestment

Sen. Maria Cantwell and other lawmakers want an investigation into whether the agency’s administrator “profited from deliberately violating his ethics agreement.”…
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Key Democrat seeks inspector general probe into FAA chief’s airline stock divestment

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Sen. Maria Cantwell and other lawmakers want an investigation into whether the agency’s administrator “profited from deliberately violating his ethics agreement.”…
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From Iran to Paris weather: Alleged prediction market violations start stacking up

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Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are quickly becoming an economic and political force, accruing multi-billion dollar valuations and drawing support from key officials in the Trump administration.

But backlash to the platforms is spreading — in Washington and in state capitals — with accusations of insider trading following White House military action in Venezuela and Iran and dogging several midterm election campaigns.

Fault lines over who is in charge of regulation are already emerging, with several frontline Democrats pushing to rein in the companies. In March, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order barring appointed state officials from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets. Regulation discussions are ongoing in other states, including Arizona and Massachusetts.

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, meanwhile, is an adviser for both Kalshi and Polymarket. And both companies are spending big to win over the country’s political class, with Polymarket opening a pop-up bar on K Street, among other efforts. Both platforms did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Here are some of the most recent incidents that have piqued the anxiety of state and federal lawmakers.

People gather at a government-organized event to watch former President Nicolas Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores appear in a New York court on a screen in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 26, 2026.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro

Federal authorities on Thursday announced the arrest of a U.S. Army special forces soldier they accused of using confidential information to place more than a dozen bets on Polymarket tied to the January capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old soldier who helped plan the Caracas operation, spent roughly $33,000 on the bets, earning more than $400,000 in payouts, the Justice Department said. Authorities charged him with unlawfully using confidential government information for personal gain, among other alleged offenses.

The operation saw U.S. forces capture Maduro overnight in his bedroom, before flying the longtime Venezuelan leader to New York City to face narco-terrorism charges.

Van Dyke’s alleged actions took advantage of that mission, the government officials argue.

“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement Thursday. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”

A woman member of the Basij paramilitary, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, holds her gun and an Iranian flag during a state-organized rally in support of the supreme leader marking National Girl's Day in Tehran, Iran, on April 17, 2026.

U.S.-Iran ceasefire

In the hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts spent thousands betting on a temporary peace, according to an Associated Press report.

One account, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social announcement, made $48,500 on a $31,908 bet that a ceasefire would occur. Another cashed out for a profit of $200,000, the AP reported.

Polymarket also took heat after the U.S.’s initial strikes on Iran, with “six suspected insiders” placing bets on the attacks just before they took place, according to Blockchain company Bubblemaps, taking home more than $1 million.

Israeli authorities, meanwhile, charged two people in February for using classified information to place bets about military operations on Polymarket, according to NPR.

The U.S. Capitol building is seen April 20, 2026.

Congressional bets

On Wednesday, Kalshi announced that it was suspending three 2026 congressional candidates from the platform for betting on their own races. Minnesota Democrat Matthew Klein, Texas Republican Ezekiel Enriquez and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran were each given five-year bans and faced fines or penalties ranging from roughly $500 to more than $6,000.

Klein, who is running to replace outgoing House lawmaker Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District, issued an apology on X.

“This was a mistake, and I apologize,” he wrote. “My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets.”

Enriquez has not appeared to publicly comment on his wager or suspension.

Moran, a former “FBoy Island” contestant who is running a long-shot bid to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) in Virginia, took a different tack, writing on X that he wanted to be caught.

“I traded $100 on myself, knowing this would happen (also knowing that I wouldn’t be vying for the democratic nomination) and the attention it would create to highlight how this company is destroying young men and as Senator I will go after Kalshi and impose significant penalties on them – 25% – a vice tax – to pay down our national debt,” he said.

A man on a bicycle rides on the flooded banks of the Seine next to the Eiffel Tower in Paris on Feb. 25, 2026.

Playing with Mother Nature

Several Polymarket traders made thousands of dollars in profits for accurately predicting sudden, anomalous spikes in the temperature at Paris’ Charles De Gaulle airport April 15, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Météo-France, the country’s weather service, is now investigating the incident, which could be tied to tampering.

Jimmy Donaldson, the popular YouTube video maker who goes by MrBeast, is seen at an MLS soccer match between Inter Miami and CF Montreal on March 10, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

MrBeast’s editor

In February, Kalshi reported Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast, one of the world’s biggest influencers and most popular YouTube creators, to federal authorities for allegedly trading “on material, non-public information he obtained because of his employment” regarding the celebrity’s YouTube videos.

Kalshi suspended Kaptur from its platform for two years and imposed a financial penalty of more than $20,000. He was fired in March.

“Beast Industries has no tolerance for this behavior, whether by contestants or our own employees,” MrBeast’s company wroteat the time.

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