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Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail

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Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail

An underestimated factor in 2024 is that, while former President Donald Trump and his closest allies have learned from their failed 2020 coup attempt, everyone else learned, too. 

On the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, I wrote out ways to protect American democracy in anticipation of another attempt in 2024. I’m pleased to say most of them happened.

Voters around the country rejected the “election denier” conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions. Congress reformed the Electoral Count Act, addressing loopholes Trump and congressional Republicans tried to exploit on Jan. 6. Big defamation payments for Dominion voting systems, as well as Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, give right-wing media a financial disincentive against pushing blatant lies.

Voters around the country rejected the ‘election denier’ conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions.

The legal system didn’t prevent Trump from getting this chance to put himself above the law, but the Justice Department did successfully prosecute hundreds of Jan. 6 attackers. Some of the most dangerous, such as militia members convicted of seditious conspiracy, are in prison. They can’t attack this time, and they offer an example for others: Trump can pardon insurrectionists if he becomes president, but you’re in trouble if he doesn’t.

The Republican Party has purged officials who won’t at least go along with Trump’s “big lie” and primed its supporters to deny election results, hammering lies about fraud. And this time they’ll have Elon Musk’s X pumping out conspiracy theories and trying to stoke political violence, as he recently did in the U.K.

In the event Trump loses, some degree of violence is likely as Trump and MAGA media whip their followers into a frenzy, but law enforcement will be more prepared. And he isn’t president, so he probably can’t summon a crowd to the National Mall in Washington and facilitate violence by ordering metal detectors removed.

Trump Supporters Hold
President Donald Trump arrives at the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images, file

There are bigger concerns at the state level. Some MAGA election administration officials will reject votes they don’t like or otherwise try to manipulate the process. We could see another fake electors scheme or state legislatures’ claiming they can overrule their voters.

But 2020 fake electors failed and got indicted, with the first conviction coming this August. To succeed this time, they’d need their states’ governors and a majority in Congress, both of which are unlikely. Even this Trump-authoritarianism-sympathetic Supreme Court rejected claims of state legislative supremacy.

A more vulnerable point is vote counting, especially in swing states where it could take days. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, and Republican-led state legislatures rejected requests for reform. Trump could try to exploit any delays, declaring victory based on partial counts.

But 2020 was a better environment for that scam. Mail-in ballots had a heavy Democratic lean because Democrats took Covid more seriously than Republicans, and Trump was lying about mail-ins as a pretext to challenge the vote. This year, Republicans are encouraging early and mail-in voting. And whatever happens, an army of lawyers is ready to fight it out in court. 

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption.

There’s a risk of violent demonstrations at vote-counting centers. But areas that experienced threatening crowds last time are more prepared. For example, Maricopa County — which includes Phoenix and over half of Arizona’s population — will protect counting centers with drone surveillance and police snipers. “Election workers,” The Wall Street Journal reports, “have gone through active-shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to repel armed mobs.”

Other swing states should increase security at vote-counting centers, if they haven’t already. Especially in populous areas that will take longer to count, such as in and around Philadelphia.

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption. But it would draw immense national attention from all sides, with lawyers, political operatives, protesters and media descending on the state.

Election administration is diffuse and multilayered, and a lot is on camera. More judges and election officials want to uphold the law than overthrow it. We may not know the winner on Election Night, but we’ll almost certainly get an accurate count and a certified winner in time. 

Trump’s lying about election results and trying to overthrow democracy with the backing of the institutional Republican Party is the positive scenario. That would sound shockingly bad to an American in 2015, but in 2024 it’s much better than the alternative. 

If he wins, all bets are off. But if he loses, we can take some solace in that it’ll be harder for him and his team to try to steal the election this time around. 

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”

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‘Uniting anger’: Democrats fume over Schumer’s handling of funding fight

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Chuck Schumer is facing one of the most perilous moments of his Senate leadership career.

The Senate minority leader came under heavy fire for the second straight day from Democrats enraged at him for backing a Republican bill to avoid a government shutdown, and fallout appears likely to last well past Friday’s vote.

A handful of House lawmakers, including some in battleground districts, are floating supporting a primary challenge against him. Activists are organizing efforts to punish him financially. Schumer is facing questions within his own caucus about whether he made strategic errors in handling the high-stakes moment and failed to outline a clear plan about how to deal with the complex politics of a shutdown, according to interviews with six lawmakers or their aides. Some Democratic senators are even privately questioning whether he should stay on as their leader.

“He’s done a great deal of damage to the party,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the liberal group Indivisible, which has scheduled an emergency call Saturday with its New York chapter and other local leaders to “seriously consider if the current [Democratic] leadership is equipped to handle the moment we’re in.”

In a remarkable sign of how deep the intraparty frustration with Schumer runs, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries refused to throw his fellow New Yorker a life raft. Asked by reporters on Friday if there should be new leadership in the Senate, he said, “Next question.”

Schumer’s one-time partner, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), went so far as to urge senators to vote against his position, saying that “this false choice that some are buying instead of fighting is unacceptable.” And dozens of House Democrats sent a sharply worded letter to Schumer Friday, which expressed “strong opposition” to his standpoint, arguing that the “American people sent Democrats to Congress to fight against Republican dysfunction and chaos” and that the party should not be “capitulating to their obstruction.”

Though several senators said they supported his leadership, some Senate Democrats avoided questions when asked directly Friday about whether they continued to support him in the role.

“We still have more to play out on this,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “So I’m not really thinking about the big-picture politics.”

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) also dodged, saying: “The leader I don’t have confidence in is Donald Trump.” And Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) responded to a query on whether he still supports Schumer by calling for a “good post-mortem” on Senate Democrats’ approach to the government funding fight.

“Anytime you have a failure — and this is a failure altogether — we as a caucus owe it to Democrats across the country and our constituents to look back and see: How do we get ourselves into this situation?” he said.

One Democratic senator granted anonymity to share private discussions said conversations are starting about whether Schumer should be their leader going forward.

“There’s a lot of concern about the failure to have a plan and execute on it,” the senator said. “It’s not like you couldn’t figure out that this is what was going to happen.”

The frustration toward Schumer reflects a boiling anger among Democrats over what they view as their party’s lack of a strategy for taking on Trump in his second term. Though few in Democratic circles think Schumer’s job as minority leader is at risk — and he isn’t up for reelection until 2028 — the frustration toward him spans the party’s spectrum, from moderates to progressives, both in and outside of Congress.

Schumer has defended his vote to keep the government running as the best of two bad choices aimed at not ceding Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk even more power to slash the government. Nine Democratic senators and an independent who caucuses with Democrats joined him to advance the bill, enough to prevent a government shutdown.

“A government shutdown gives Donald Trump, Elon Musk and DOGE almost complete power as to what to close down, because they can decide what is an essential service,” Schumer said in a BLN interview. “My job as leader is to lead the party, and if there’s going to be danger in the near future, to protect the party. And I’m proud I did it. I knew I did the right thing, and I knew there’d be some disagreements. That’s how it always is.”

He added that he is not concerned with his leadership position: “I have the overwhelming support of my caucus. And so many of the members thanked me and said, ‘You did what you thought was courageous, and we respect it.’”

But behind closed doors, even some longtime Schumer allies are raising the specter that his time has passed.

“Biden is gone. Pelosi is in the background. Schumer is the last one left from that older generation,” said one New York-based donor who is a longtime supporter of the leader. “I do worry that the older generation thinks 2024 was just about inflation, but no, the game has changed. It’s not left wing or moderate, it’s everyone now saying — the game is different now. But he was set up to battle in 2006, and we’re a long way from 2006.”

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said “active conversations” are taking place among liberal groups about how to make Schumer pay. He said Schumer will likely face protests over his support for the GOP bill at his tour stops next week for his new book “Antisemitism In America: A Warning.” But he said the effort to hold him “accountable” will not end there.

“He has to be made an example of to enforce Democratic backbone going forward,” he said.

And it’s far from just progressives.

“I have not seen such uniting anger across the party in a long, long time,” said Charlotte Clymer, a Democratic operative associated with the moderate wing of the party who launched a petition to boycott donations to Senate Democrats until they force Schumer out as minority leader. “Sen. Schumer has managed to unite us far more than Trump has in recent months.”

After the GOP bill advanced Friday, Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar said in a statement that “we need more leaders from the stand and fight wing of the Democratic Party.” MoveOn warned that the liberal group’s “members will be demanding answers from their elected officials” about the vote. The progressive organization Justice Democrats sent a text to supporters reading “F*ck Chuck Schumer.”

Also on Friday, dozens of protesters organized by the Sunrise Movement descended on Schumer’s office in the Hart Senate building holding signs that read: “Schumer: step up or step aside,” demanding he reverse course on supporting the bill. The group said 11 people were arrested.

“We have to reckon with the fact that young people, working-class people, people of color — the backbone of the Democratic Party — are moving away from the party,” said Stevie O’Hanlon, the organization’s political director. “Chuck Schumer is part of that reason.”

Still, some Democratic senators publicly stood by Schumer on Friday.

Asked if people are urging her to run for Schumer’s job, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), said, “No, no,” adding, “I’m doing my job today.”

Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who is retiring after this term, called Schumer “a good leader.” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) told reporters he still has confidence in Schumer in the top role.

Others acknowledged the difficult position Schumer found himself in as he attempted to steer his caucus through a lesser-of-two-evils situation without the same simple-majority cover that Jeffries had in the House.

“It’s tough to be the leader,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).

With reporting by Emily Ngo and Hailey Fuchs.

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Trump lauds Schumer’s ‘guts’ in backing bill to avoid shutdown

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President Donald Trump on Friday congratulated Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for “doing the right thing” by backing the Republican-led bill to avert a government shutdown, a choice that’s put the New York Democrat at odds with many in his party. “A non pass would be a Country destroyer…
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Dems ask Trump admin to explain Khalil’s arrest, calling it ‘playbook of authoritarians’

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Dems ask Trump admin to explain Khalil’s arrest, calling it ‘playbook of authoritarians’

More than 100 House Democrats sent the letter to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Secretary of State Marco Rubio…
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