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Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail

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Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail

An underestimated factor in 2024 is that, while former President Donald Trump and his closest allies have learned from their failed 2020 coup attempt, everyone else learned, too. 

On the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, I wrote out ways to protect American democracy in anticipation of another attempt in 2024. I’m pleased to say most of them happened.

Voters around the country rejected the “election denier” conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions. Congress reformed the Electoral Count Act, addressing loopholes Trump and congressional Republicans tried to exploit on Jan. 6. Big defamation payments for Dominion voting systems, as well as Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, give right-wing media a financial disincentive against pushing blatant lies.

Voters around the country rejected the ‘election denier’ conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions.

The legal system didn’t prevent Trump from getting this chance to put himself above the law, but the Justice Department did successfully prosecute hundreds of Jan. 6 attackers. Some of the most dangerous, such as militia members convicted of seditious conspiracy, are in prison. They can’t attack this time, and they offer an example for others: Trump can pardon insurrectionists if he becomes president, but you’re in trouble if he doesn’t.

The Republican Party has purged officials who won’t at least go along with Trump’s “big lie” and primed its supporters to deny election results, hammering lies about fraud. And this time they’ll have Elon Musk’s X pumping out conspiracy theories and trying to stoke political violence, as he recently did in the U.K.

In the event Trump loses, some degree of violence is likely as Trump and MAGA media whip their followers into a frenzy, but law enforcement will be more prepared. And he isn’t president, so he probably can’t summon a crowd to the National Mall in Washington and facilitate violence by ordering metal detectors removed.

Trump Supporters Hold
President Donald Trump arrives at the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images, file

There are bigger concerns at the state level. Some MAGA election administration officials will reject votes they don’t like or otherwise try to manipulate the process. We could see another fake electors scheme or state legislatures’ claiming they can overrule their voters.

But 2020 fake electors failed and got indicted, with the first conviction coming this August. To succeed this time, they’d need their states’ governors and a majority in Congress, both of which are unlikely. Even this Trump-authoritarianism-sympathetic Supreme Court rejected claims of state legislative supremacy.

A more vulnerable point is vote counting, especially in swing states where it could take days. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, and Republican-led state legislatures rejected requests for reform. Trump could try to exploit any delays, declaring victory based on partial counts.

But 2020 was a better environment for that scam. Mail-in ballots had a heavy Democratic lean because Democrats took Covid more seriously than Republicans, and Trump was lying about mail-ins as a pretext to challenge the vote. This year, Republicans are encouraging early and mail-in voting. And whatever happens, an army of lawyers is ready to fight it out in court. 

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption.

There’s a risk of violent demonstrations at vote-counting centers. But areas that experienced threatening crowds last time are more prepared. For example, Maricopa County — which includes Phoenix and over half of Arizona’s population — will protect counting centers with drone surveillance and police snipers. “Election workers,” The Wall Street Journal reports, “have gone through active-shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to repel armed mobs.”

Other swing states should increase security at vote-counting centers, if they haven’t already. Especially in populous areas that will take longer to count, such as in and around Philadelphia.

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption. But it would draw immense national attention from all sides, with lawyers, political operatives, protesters and media descending on the state.

Election administration is diffuse and multilayered, and a lot is on camera. More judges and election officials want to uphold the law than overthrow it. We may not know the winner on Election Night, but we’ll almost certainly get an accurate count and a certified winner in time. 

Trump’s lying about election results and trying to overthrow democracy with the backing of the institutional Republican Party is the positive scenario. That would sound shockingly bad to an American in 2015, but in 2024 it’s much better than the alternative. 

If he wins, all bets are off. But if he loses, we can take some solace in that it’ll be harder for him and his team to try to steal the election this time around. 

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”

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Inside the DNC’s money problems

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The Democratic National Committee has fallen far behind in the cash race.

After a brutal 2024 election and several months into rebuilding efforts under new party leadership, the DNC wildly trails the Republican National Committee by nearly every fundraising metric. By the end of June, the RNC had $80 million on hand, compared to $15 million for the DNC.

And the gap — nearly twice as large as it was at this stage in Trump’s first presidency — has only grown in recent months, a Blue Light News analysis of campaign finance data found, fueled by several distinct factors.

Major Democratic donors have withheld money this year amid skepticism about the party’s direction, while the small-dollar donors who have long been a source of strength are not growing nearly enough to make up the gap. And the party has quickly churned through what money it has raised in the first half of the year, including spending more than $15 million this year to pay off lingering expenses from Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign.

The DNC has less cash this summer than it did at any point in the last five years.

“I understand that donors want some kind of a reckoning,” said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist. “But I also think that the kind of state party building that I think [DNC Chair] Ken [Martin] wants to do at the DNC is really vital to our success. And so I hope people kind of get over themselves pretty quick.”

The fundraising troubles reflect ongoing questions about the DNC’s direction under Martin, who was elected earlier this year, and comes as the DNC has faced months of bitter infighting. Continued cash shortages could limit the party’s ability to rebuild for a new cycle. And the DNC’s money woes stand in particularly stark contrast to Republicans, who have leveraged President Donald Trump’s fundraising prowess to raise record sums.

“Chair Martin and the DNC have raised more than twice what he had raised at this point in 2017, and our success in cycles thereafter is well documented. Under Ken, grassroots support is strong,” DNC Executive Director Sam Cornale said in a statement. “It’s now time for everyone to get off the sidelines and join the fight. Rebuilding a party is hard — rebuilding relationships and programs take time and will require all hands on deck to meet this moment.”

The DNC’s money woes stand out among major Democratic groups, Blue Light News’s analysis found: Democrats’ House and Senate campaign arms are near financial parity with their Republican counterparts, and several major donors who have withheld funds from the DNC are still giving to those groups.

“Donors see the DNC as rudderless, off message and leaderless. Those are the buzzwords I keep hearing over and over again,” said one Democratic donor adviser, granted anonymity to speak candidly about donors’ approach.

The DNC, on the other hand, touts Democrats’ success in state and local elections this year as proof the party’s investments are paying off. The group also began transferring more funds to state parties this year, and argues it is better-positioned financially than it was at this time in 2017, when it also significantly trailed the Trump-powered RNC.

Some Democrats attribute the slowdown among donors primarily to the need for a break after 2024, and the challenges of being the party out of power. Large donors would rather bump elbows with high-profile figures like a president or House speaker; Democrats cannot put on those kinds of fundraising events right now. The DNC also struggled for cash during Trump’s first presidential term, and that did not stop Democrats from taking back the House in 2018, or winning the presidency in 2020.

Still, the longer the DNC struggles to build up cash, the harder it will be to close that gap heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond. And the fact that other party committees are not seeing the same financial struggles puts more responsibility on Martin and his team to figure out a way to right the ship.

“Obviously, the sooner the DNC and other Democratic-aligned groups can get investment, the better. It’s better for long-term programs on the ground, it’s better to communicate our message early on,” said Maria Cardona, a DNC member and Democratic strategist. “However, I think you’re going to see donors coming into those things because they are starting to see Democrats fighting back, and that’s what they want.”

Just 47 donors gave the maximum contribution to the DNC in the first half of the year, according to the Blue Light News analysis of the party’s filings with the Federal Election Commission. Over the same period in 2021, more than 130 donors gave a maximum contribution. (In 2017, when the party was similarly struggling with large donors, the figure was 37.)

That means dozens of the DNC’s biggest donors from early last cycle have not yet given to it this year — accounting for several million dollars the party group has missed out on this time.

Many of those biggest donors have continued to contribute to other Democratic groups and candidates, indicating they are still aligned with the party and willing to dole out cash — though often not as much, and not to the DNC.

In the run-up to the DNC chair election earlier this year, several large donors publicly preferred Ben Wikler, the Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, to Martin, who long served as the leader of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and also led the Association of State Democratic Parties.

“If Ken [Martin] really wanted to impress donors, he’d go do 20 or 30 salon events with donors and let them yell at him,” said the Democratic donor adviser. “If you take that on the chin, make some changes, then I think we could see some movement. But [he’s] not going to do that.”

With large donors lagging, the DNC has touted record grassroots fundraising from online donors. On ActBlue, the primary Democratic online fundraising platform, the group raised $33.8 million over the first six months of the year, up from $27 million over the same time in 2021.

But the total number of online donors was roughly the same in both periods — suggesting online donors are giving more than they were four years ago, but the group’s donor base has not expanded substantially.

Most DNC donors this year were contributors to Harris’ campaign or the DNC last cycle, according to the Blue Light News analysis. Another 14 percent of donors had no record of donations on ActBlue last cycle, suggesting the DNC is finding new small donors — but not nearly fast enough to make up for the drop-off among large donors.

In fact, the rate of online giving to the DNC has slowed in recent months. The party’s best online fundraising month was March, when it raised $8.6 million on ActBlue from 254,000 donors; in June, the party raised $4.1 million on the platform from 157,000 donors.

And reaching those online donors comes at a cost: The DNC has spent $5.7 million on online fundraising this year, according to its FEC filings. On Meta, which includes Facebook and Instagram, it is one of the largest political spenders this year, according to the platform’s data. The total spent on fundraising expenses so far is nearly as much as the DNC has sent to state parties this year.

Another set of major expenses also stands out for draining the DNC’s coffers: continuing to pay off expenses from Harris’ failed 2024 presidential bid.

Her campaign ended last year’s election with roughly $20 million in unpaid expenses, according to people familiar with its finances, although none of Harris’ campaign committees or affiliates ever officially reported debt. The DNC has spent $15.8 million total on coordinated expenses with the Harris campaign this year, including $1.3 million in June. A party spokesperson declined to comment on future campaign-related payments.

Elena Schneider contributed to this report.

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Conservatives mock Comey over Taylor Swift video

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Conservatives mock Comey over Taylor Swift video

Conservatives are mocking former FBI Director James Comey over a post he made on his Substack on Sunday in which he discussed his admiration for pop superstar Taylor Swift. The post features a video of Comey calling Swift “a truly inspirational public figure” and noting her recent appearance on NFL stars’ Jason and Travis Kelce’s…
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Trump criticizes ‘fake news,’ Democrat, Zelensky in series of posts

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Trump criticizes ‘fake news,’ Democrat, Zelensky in series of posts

President Trump late Sunday in a pair of posts on Truth Social ripped the media and a prominent Democrat for criticisms of his summit on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump met with Putin in Alaska, and will meet Monday with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky as he seeks to find a way to end…
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