Politics
Rubio’s 2028 profile rises with Venezuela — and so do his risks
Donald Trump has handed Marco Rubio the keys to Venezuela. It could make or break the secretary of State should he run for president in 2028.
Rubio has quickly emerged as the administration’s point person on Venezuela, the man standing behind the president as he declared “we’re going to run the country.” Rubio plastered his face across the Sunday news shows to explain the operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, then went on in the days after to defend it in briefings to Congress.
Photoshopped memes are now circulating of Rubio sporting a sash with the national colors of Venezuela, like those the country’s presidents wear. Rubio is in on the joke, taking to X on Thursday to humorously knock down “rumors” that he was “a candidate for the currently vacant HC and GM positions with the Miami Dolphins.”
But it’s the American presidency that could be at stake.
“Venezuela could make him president — or ensure that he never is,” said Mark McKinnon, a longtime political adviser and former aide to President George W. Bush.
Blue Light News reported in November that Rubio privately had said that he’d back JD Vance for president if he runs in 2028, which Rubio publicly confirmed to Vanity Fair.
“If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio told Vanity Fair, a line his aides pointed Blue Light News to when asked for comment for this story.
Few political strategists, however, are buying that line, and Rubio has changed his mind on not running for office before.
“He’s quietly stacking internal GOP capital, from what I hear from people in my circles within the Republican Party,” said Buzz Jacobs, senior adviser on Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “As of today, could Marco Rubio enter the presidential race and be very competitive, even against the vice president? I think the answer is undeniably yes.”
Rubio has spent much of his career railing against Venezuela’s socialist dictatorship, a close ally of the regime in Cuba, his parents’ homeland.
“Their experience with the evils of socialism and communism is in his DNA,” said Cesar Conda, Rubio’s first Senate chief of staff. “It guides his world view.”
Rubio ran against Trump for the presidency in 2016; he called Trump a “con artist.” But since Trump won and effectively commandeered the Republican Party, Rubio has adjusted many of his policy positions and his rhetoric. He has surrounded himself with America First staffers and advisers who help push forward the Trump administration’s muscular foreign policy.
Trump shortlisted him for the vice presidency in 2024, but Rubio ended up at the State Department instead. To the surprise of many political observers, Rubio fell into lockstep with Trump on issues many thought would be a red line for him. He enthusiastically shut down pathways for refugees and ended funding for democracy and human rights programs, causes he once championed. Taking such steps helped him stay in Trump’s good graces, enough so that the president named him acting national security adviser as well.
Trump has often cozied up to autocrats, but he has never liked Maduro. In recent days, he made it clear he sees Venezuela as a source of oil and other natural resources for the U.S. to exploit. Rubio has long painted Maduro as a thug who thwarted democracy.
For much of this year, both men pushed the idea that Maduro had to be dealt with, alleging he led a drug cartel killing Americans with its products. They got their wish: Maduro is now in U.S. custody in New York.
But the South American country’s fate is far from clear. Many of Maduro’s cronies remain in power, even though Trump insists that they will do what the U.S. demands. Trump told the New York Times this week that the U.S. could be running Venezuela for years.
“I understand that in this cycle and society we now live in, everyone wants instant outcomes. They want it to happen overnight,” Rubio told reporters after briefing the Senate Wednesday. “It’s not going to work that way.”
Members of Congress were not notified of the Maduro operation in advance, and many are fuming about what they say is a continued lack of transparency.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said Rubio’s briefing “raised more questions than it answered.”
“It’s time to let the public in on this, and let the public see what’s at stake,” said Kaine, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Venezuela is unlikely to be a quick or easy fix. The country is roughly twice the size of California, with a shattered economy, a varied landscape, and many armed groups in a population of 30 million. The Maduro cronies left behind have their own internal rivalries, and some control military forces.
Despite Trump and Rubio’s warnings to the remaining members of the regime to fall in line and capitulate to U.S. demands, it’s possible the Venezuelan state could collapse.
And it may not end with Venezuela: Rubio and Trump are warning other countries to get in line with what the U.S. wants from them, including Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela.
“If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I would be concerned, at least a little bit,” Rubio said in a Saturday press conference just hours after the Venezuela operation.
The potential chaos ahead could leave Rubio on the outs with key GOP voting blocs. Those include anti-interventionist conservatives, who remain wary of Rubio’s neoconservative instincts, and Republican Latino voters, especially in Florida, some who desperately want regime change in the nations their families fled and others who are frustrated by the region’s instability.
Then, of course, there’s the general public, a good chunk of whom want the U.S. to avoid another repeat of Iraq and Afghanistan. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after the raid, 72 percent of Americans are concerned the U.S. will get “too involved” in Venezuela.
As Rubio has become the face of the effort, Vance, a potential rival in 2028, has largely kept away from it. He was not at the makeshift Mar-a-Lago situation room while the raid unfolded on Saturday, a fact his spokesperson attributed to concern “a late-night motorcade movement … may tip off the Venezuelans.” Vance was “deeply integrated in the process and planning of the Venezuela strikes and Maduro’s arrest,” the spokesperson said.
Rubio also has to consider some practical matters: If he wants to run for president, he will need to raise money, build a campaign infrastructure and take all the other steps needed before the GOP primary kicks into full gear.
That’s especially difficult to do while secretary of State, a position that traditionally has stayed away from the partisan domestic scene. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had been out of the Obama administration for more than a year before she publicly moved toward a presidential campaign.
Rubio would likely have to leave the administration after another year or so to have time for all the logistics, as jostling for the 2028 presidential campaign will kick off by early next year.
Most U.S. presidential elections don’t hinge on foreign policy, though candidates from John McCain back to Hubert Humphrey have been damaged by their party’s foreign adventurism. Still, the first year of Trump’s second term has been surprisingly heavy on foreign policy — and any Republican running in 2028 will likely have to grapple with the results of Trump’s bold international moves.
“The MAGA base is very loyal to Trump. It will watch if people are disrespectful to him,” said Alex Gray, a former National Security Council official during the first Trump administration.
There are also factions of the GOP — including members of the Cuban and Venezuelan diasporas — who will stand by hardline moves against the regimes there no matter what the cost. Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist, said he has heard from many Latino Republicans who are impressed by how much Trump relies on Rubio. Whenever Trump needs “an adult in the room, he seems to look towards Marco’s leadership,” Madrid said.
But Madrid and other party strategists aren’t about to start taking bets on the GOP primary yet. After all, the situation in Venezuela is just one of multiple Trump foreign policy adventures that could turn into quagmires.
For Rubio in particular, “what may look like the president knighting him as a sort of competent successor may actually, in fact, be him carrying all the weight of the unpopular actions of the president in a couple of years,” Madrid said. “There’s a greater likelihood of that than not.”
Democrats are adding a new target to their affordability agenda, joining groceries, utilities and landlords — FIFA, the soccer governing body responsible for staging the World Cup.
In New York and New Jersey, which are hosting eight tournament matches this summer at MetLife Stadium, a populist pile-on is being fueled by news that transit officials will close part of the nation’s busiest train station for the exclusive use of ticketholders and charge them more than $100 to get to matches.
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat who was elected last fall talking about cost of living concerns, is now catching flak for planning to jack up train fares and also proposing a special tax for World Cup visitors. But she blames FIFA, a commercially minded Zurich-based nonprofit, for raking in $11 billion from the games and leaving local governments to pay for transporting fans.
“They should be paying for rides but if they don’t, I’m not going to let New Jersey get taken for one,” she said in a statement Wednesday.
It’s not the first time or place that elected officials have railed against FIFA. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have all complained about high World Cup ticket costs. But the issues have expanded and criticism crescendoed just weeks ahead of the tournament’s June start and at a time when the economy is likely to drive the outcome of the November midterms in America.
Other Democrats, including Mamdani and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), are taking Sherrill’s side.
Schumer tore into FIFA for collecting billions while ticketholders are being “gouged.” He also blamed the Trump administration, which created a World Cup task force led by Andrew Giuliani, for poor planning and oversight.
“These issues all point to FIFA and the Trump administration failing to protect consumers, while not providing more support to local committees and transit agencies to handle the significant new costs to operate during the tournament,” Schumer said in a statement.
In response, Giuliani blamed Democrats for poor planning and accused them of using the games as a bailout to balance their books.
“New Jersey and New York asked to host these FIFA World Cup Games,” Giuliani said in a statement. “They did so despite these systems being billions in debt because they know very well these historic games will invite an economic boom into their backyards. What do both states have in common? Far Left, failed leadership.”
Both New Jersey Transit, which serves MetLife Stadium, and New York City have struggled with budget gaps. World Cup boosters predict the eight matches will generate more than $3 billion in economic activity for the region, though a recent New York City Council staff memo on the economics of the games said some sports economists “have expressed skepticism” over those numbers.
Sky-high World Cup tickets have long been an issue for Mamdani, who launched a “Game Over Greed” petition during his campaign last year.
Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist, said going after FIFA helps create class distinctions.
“Anything that can be used to create the dissension between those that have and those that have not immediately assists the left and helps Mamdani make his case,” he said.
Ironically, some of the alarm over costs comes as local governments try to avoid subsidizing wealthy ticketholders. That’s why Sherrill’s New Jersey Transit is expected to charge so much to get fans from New York Penn Station to matches at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey and back.
Originally, World Cup hosts — in this case New York City and the state of New Jersey — were supposed to provide free transportation to matches. But in fall 2023, FIFA no longer required that, according to someone close to the planning process who was granted anonymity to speak openly.
That meant transit agencies were free to charge special rates to fans. While that’s meant to protect taxpayers, it’s also highlighting just how expensive the World Cup is.
FIFA did not respond to a request for comment.
In New Jersey, officials tallied up the expected costs of providing special train and bus service to World Cup fans — which includes curtailing service for regular commuters — and came up with a $48 million price tag.
Sherrill said she inherited a situation where FIFA is providing no money for transportation and she didn’t want residents to pick up the costs. The state’s transit system, New Jersey Transit, is offering a discount to regular riders on days when matches will disrupt commutes, and the governor has proposed a special tax on the area around the stadium where the World Cup will be held.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has tangled a time or two with New Jersey over transit issues, appeared concerned by New Jersey’s “very high price tag” affecting the World Cup experience.
“We don’t want to throw cold water on it and say, ‘Oh, thanks for coming, now here’s a cost that you never anticipated,’” the Democratic governor said.
But Hochul also said FIFA could be finding ways to support the World Cup.
“I think FIFA should be looking at things to be helpful to this region,” she said.
Asked about the New Jersey Transit fare, Mamdani said “FIFA does offload a lot” of its costs onto local governments.
“I think that there’s a lot more, frankly, that we could be doing in partnership with FIFA to make this a more affordable experience for everyone,” he told PIX11 News this week.
While the federal government has helped with some transit-related infrastructure, the money has not covered transit systems’ expenses. Last summer, the head of the New York New Jersey World Cup Host Committee, Alex Lasry, asked Congress for money to help cushion the costs, citing the past eight Olympic Games held in America, where Congress provided supplemental transportation funding.
Congress and the Trump administration didn’t bite on covering systems’ operating costs, though the federal government is providing hundreds of millions of dollars for security.
And ticket prices to the matches themselves remain a live issue for Democrats.
“If soccer is supposed to be accessible to all fans, then this corporate World Cup would fall far short,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing Wednesday on World Cup planning.
Sophia Cai and Madina Toure contributed to this report.
Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) holds a sizable cash advantage over his GOP rivals in the race for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat.
The Democrat raked in $3.3 million to his campaign account over the first quarter of the year as he vies to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Pappas, who faces only nominal opposition for his party’s nomination, entered April with $4.2 million in his war chest, according to his Federal Election Commission filing.
Pappas’ leading GOP competitor, former Sen. John E. Sununu, raised $1.1 million directly to his campaign account and had nearly $1.9 million in cash on hand. He spent just $349,000, per his filing — a significantly lower burn rate than Pappas, who spent $2.3 million over the last three months.
Sununu’s primary rival, former Sen. Scott Brown, lagged even further behind. Brown raised a modest $321,000 and entered the second quarter with $783,000 in his campaign coffers. He spent more money than he brought in, according to his filing.
Pappas leads both of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical polling match-ups of the general election, though his margin against Sununu is slimmer.
Sununu, who has the backing of the national GOP establishment and President Donald Trump in a state Republicans hope to flip, holds a wide lead over Brown, a former Trump ambassador, in polls of the GOP primary.
Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a massive fundraising advantage over the Republicans hoping to unseat him in November, giving him a head start as the GOP field remains fractured.
Ossoff, considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents of the cycle, raised $14 million during the first quarter of the year and ended with more than $31 million cash on hand — a significant war chest that dwarfs the combined totals of his Republican challengers, according to filings from the Federal Elections Commission.
On the GOP side, Rep. Mike Collins led in first-quarter fundraising, raising just over $1 million and entering the second quarter with $2.1 million in cash on hand. Collins has been a front-runner in public polling of the race, but with a large share of voters still undecided ahead of the May primary, the contest appears increasingly likely to head to a June runoff.
Rep. Buddy Carter raised $469,795, but he ended the quarter with more in the bank than his primary opponents — $3.7 million — thanks in part due to a $3 million he loaned his campaign last year. Former football coach Derek Dooley raised $663,502 and has $2.2 million in the bank.
National Republicans are likely to funnel more money into the contest once a nominee emerges, with the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund already planning a $44 million investment in Georgia. But in the meantime, Ossoff has been able to build a financial lead in what’s expected to be one of the most expensive Senate races of 2026.
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