Politics

Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail

Published

2 years ago

November 11, 2024

Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail

An underestimated factor in 2024 is that, while former President Donald Trump and his closest allies have learned from their failed 2020 coup attempt, everyone else learned, too.

On the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, I wrote out ways to protect American democracy in anticipation of another attempt in 2024. I’m pleased to say most of them happened.

Voters around the country rejected the “election denier” conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions. Congress reformed the Electoral Count Act, addressing loopholes Trump and congressional Republicans tried to exploit on Jan. 6. Big defamation payments for Dominion voting systems, as well as Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, give right-wing media a financial disincentive against pushing blatant lies.

Voters around the country rejected the ‘election denier’ conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions.

The legal system didn’t prevent Trump from getting this chance to put himself above the law, but the Justice Department did successfully prosecute hundreds of Jan. 6 attackers. Some of the most dangerous, such as militia members convicted of seditious conspiracy, are in prison. They can’t attack this time, and they offer an example for others: Trump can pardon insurrectionists if he becomes president, but you’re in trouble if he doesn’t.

The Republican Party has purged officials who won’t at least go along with Trump’s “big lie” and primed its supporters to deny election results, hammering lies about fraud. And this time they’ll have Elon Musk’s X pumping out conspiracy theories and trying to stoke political violence, as he recently did in the U.K.

In the event Trump loses, some degree of violence is likely as Trump and MAGA media whip their followers into a frenzy, but law enforcement will be more prepared. And he isn’t president, so he probably can’t summon a crowd to the National Mall in Washington and facilitate violence by ordering metal detectors removed.

Trump Supporters Hold — President Donald Trump arrives at the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images, file

There are bigger concerns at the state level. Some MAGA election administration officials will reject votes they don’t like or otherwise try to manipulate the process. We could see another fake electors scheme or state legislatures’ claiming they can overrule their voters.

But 2020 fake electors failed and got indicted, with the first conviction coming this August. To succeed this time, they’d need their states’ governors and a majority in Congress, both of which are unlikely. Even this Trump-authoritarianism-sympathetic Supreme Court rejected claims of state legislative supremacy.

A more vulnerable point is vote counting, especially in swing states where it could take days. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, and Republican-led state legislatures rejected requests for reform. Trump could try to exploit any delays, declaring victory based on partial counts.

But 2020 was a better environment for that scam. Mail-in ballots had a heavy Democratic lean because Democrats took Covid more seriously than Republicans, and Trump was lying about mail-ins as a pretext to challenge the vote. This year, Republicans are encouraging early and mail-in voting. And whatever happens, an army of lawyers is ready to fight it out in court.

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption.

There’s a risk of violent demonstrations at vote-counting centers. But areas that experienced threatening crowds last time are more prepared. For example, Maricopa County — which includes Phoenix and over half of Arizona’s population — will protect counting centers with drone surveillance and police snipers. “Election workers,” The Wall Street Journal reports, “have gone through active-shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to repel armed mobs.”

Other swing states should increase security at vote-counting centers, if they haven’t already. Especially in populous areas that will take longer to count, such as in and around Philadelphia.

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption. But it would draw immense national attention from all sides, with lawyers, political operatives, protesters and media descending on the state.

Election administration is diffuse and multilayered, and a lot is on camera. More judges and election officials want to uphold the law than overthrow it. We may not know the winner on Election Night, but we’ll almost certainly get an accurate count and a certified winner in time.

Trump’s lying about election results and trying to overthrow democracy with the backing of the institutional Republican Party is the positive scenario. That would sound shockingly bad to an American in 2015, but in 2024 it’s much better than the alternative.

If he wins, all bets are off. But if he loses, we can take some solace in that it’ll be harder for him and his team to try to steal the election this time around.

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”

Politics

Trump-backed Jay Feely wins GOP primary in Arizona’s battleground 1st District

Published

15 minutes ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely cruised to victory in Arizona’s 1st District on Tuesday, one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds.

Feely, a close ally of President Donald Trump, leveraged Trump’s endorsement to topple former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik.

He’ll face a steep challenge defeating the Democratic nominee in November: The 1st District, which spans the affluent suburbs north of Phoenix, is one of House Democrats’ top targets after Trump won it by just three points in 2024. Feely is looking to keep the seat under GOP control amid a midterm year that presents major headwinds for the party.

Politics

Rep. Andy Biggs wins GOP primary for Arizona governor

Published

15 minutes ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs has won the GOP primary to face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November, setting up a marquee governor’s race in one of America’s most competitive states.

Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and a close ally of President Donald Trump, easily dealt with his only serious challenger, Rep. David Schweikert, on Tuesday. Before the primary results were official, he had already begun pivoting to the general election against Hobbs, who is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic governors this fall.

Republicans feel bullish about their odds of flipping the governorship, after Trump carried the state by five points in 2024. But even though Trump won last time, the state has gradually shifted to pure tossup territory over the past few years, electing Democrats to both Senate seats, as well as the attorney general and secretary of state’s offices.

Hobbs had already shifted her focus to Biggs as well. Her campaign has amassed a significant warchest for the race and has already started running ads. Biggs, given his lack of a significant primary challenge, has been able to hold onto more cash than his GOP rivals, but is still behind Hobbs.

The race will test whether Republicans, who are starting down a potentially bruising midterm cycle, can reclaim the top office of a state that has long been a place of success for the party.

During the Republican primary debate, Biggs spent more time talking about his working relationship with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly than he did flexing his endorsement from Trump or highlighting his House record, including his time atop the Freedom Caucus. Instead, he tried to refocus on his bipartisanship in Congress and his leadership in the state legislature.

“I know how to reach across the aisle,” Biggs said during the debate.

But he will still have to contend with many of his past stances, including his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election.

And Hobbs is already working to ensure voters know where Biggs stands on key issues as a longtime member of the House, including his anti-abortion positions and his role in 2020. Her campaign has repeatedly attacked him as “too extreme” for the state and has dubbed him “basement Biggs” for keeping a relatively low profile throughout the GOP primary.

Politics

Trump-backed Mark Lamb wins Arizona House primary despite sex scandals

Published

15 minutes ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

A scandal-plagued House candidate powered by President Donald Trump’s endorsement won a messy primary Tuesday.

Mark Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff, overcame a late push from self-funding candidate Daniel Keenan in Arizona’s 5th District. Lamb will enter November as the heavy frontrunner in the deep-red Phoenix-area district to replace Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), who is running for governor.

Keenan had poured nearly $2 million of his own cash into the campaign and attempted to make Lamb’s alleged sexual misconduct and abuse of power central to the race. Lamb has denied the allegations.

But Lamb — bolstered by Trump and Arizona-based Turning Point USA — managed to ward off the attacks.

The race’s outcome reveals the strength of Trump’s endorsement, and it’s the latest example of how willing GOP primary voters have been to accept scandal-ridden candidates favored by the president.

Lamb, who served as sheriff until 2024, earned national notoriety as a gun-toting critic of the Biden administration’s immigration and border policy. He secured Trump’s backing for the 5th District contest last year.

Then in May, the Arizona Republic launched a multi-part investigation alleging that Lamb engaged in a yearslong pattern of sending sexual images and instigating intimate encounters between him, his wife and others. One woman involved, Jillian Stannard, accused Lamb of encouraging her husband to have sex with other women, including Lamb’s wife. She also alleged that Lamb threatened her, saying there would be consequences, when Stannard raised concerns to religious leaders.

Screenshots the Republic obtained of messages with another woman, Tammy Peacock, suggest Lamb — then a sitting county sheriff — threatened to leverage Arizona’s revenge porn law against her.

In a statement last week, Lamb spokesperson Ed Morabito told Blue Light News that “these allegations are false and come from long-discredited political opponents.”

Lamb did not lose any significant endorsements in the wake of the scandals — Trump reinforced his endorsement in mid-July — even as Keenan made the allegations central to his campaign.