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Capitol agenda: Graham’s death makes a hard month harder

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Republicans are mourning the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham while grappling with his absence’s sweeping impact on their agenda.

Funeral arrangements for the four-term South Carolina lawmaker have not yet been set, and could further disrupt lawmakers’ brief voting schedule in Washington before leaving for August recess. But Graham’s position as a power broker between the Senate and President Donald Trump puts the fate of several legislative priorities in question.

Most immediately this week, GOP leaders had been counting on Graham to help rally support behind Trump’s nominee for attorney general, Todd Blanche, with a handful of fellow Republicans at risk of withholding their vote. Blanche is set to testify this week with hopes of being confirmed by the first week of August.

Graham’s death also brings Senate Republicans’ already narrow majority to 52-47 — and functionally even narrower as the return of Sen. Mitch McConnell — who released a lengthy health statement yesterday — remains to be determined.

That tight margin may also further jeopardize the fate of the annual defense policy bill, which leadership had planned to bring to the floor this week as a major goal of the July legislative sprint. Graham was set to play a key role during floor debate as Democrats threaten to abandon the typically bipartisan legislation (more on that below).

Also pressing: Graham’s death is a setback for a new party-line spending package with a $350 billion boost in defense funding amid the Iran war, especially as the Pentagon warns Republicans about potential lapses in troop pay. As Budget chair, Graham would’ve led the chamber’s effort, which was already facing steep odds.

Sen. Ron Johnson is next in line to wield the Budget gavel and on Sunday said he’s prepared to take over. Unlike Graham, Johnson is much more mindful of deficits than bulking up the Pentagon budget.

And looking ahead to next Congress: Graham had tentatively been up next to take up the Judiciary gavel after Sen. Chuck Grassley terms out. That means Sen. Mike Lee would be next in line — if he wanted to give up his post as chair of Energy and Natural Resources.

Jockeying to replace Graham in both the short and long term has quietly begun. The GOP will have to run in a snap primary to replace Graham on the ballot in South Carolina, which is set to take place on Aug. 11.

Senior House Republicans quickly began lobbying behind the scenes against picking a member of the House for Graham’s seat to finish out this Congress, since it would shave down an already tiny majority, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke anonymously to describe private conversations.

What else we’re watching: 

— VANCE HUDDLES WITH HOUSE GOP AS FLOOR REMAINS FROZEN: Vice President JD Vance will speak with House Republicans Tuesday morning and encourage them to reopen the floor and advance Trump’s agenda. Conference Chair Lisa McClain invited Vance to the House GOP Members Conference at the RNC to deliver remarks and take questions.
House GOP leaders have asked the White House for help leaning on Republican holdouts who are blocking floor business with demands ranging from passage of the SAVE America Act to a House vote on immigration policies, according to two people granted anonymity to comment on internal discussions.

— NDAA IN JEOPARDY AS SENATE DEMS DEFECT: Senate Democrats are currently on track to block the annual defense policy bill over frustrations about the Iran war and Congress’ absence in authorizing it, two Senate Democratic aides, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Blue Light News. Senate Republicans are expected to bring the must-pass measure to the floor this week, which would force Democrats to take a difficult vote. The vote was teed up before Graham’s death, which could complicate the schedule. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a letter to colleagues Monday morning criticized Trump’s military funding requests, saying Republicans “are pushing to advance the annual NDAA while refusing to negotiate on the President’s bloated, partisan topline budget request.”

Katherine Tully-McManus, Jordain Carney, Chris Marquette, Adam Wren, Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy, Kyle Cheney, Alec Hernandez

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Tim Scott throws support behind former Rep. Trey Gowdy to finish Graham’s term

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Sen. Tim Scott on Sunday threw his support behind former Rep. Trey Gowdy to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the sudden death of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Scott, who appeared on Gowdy’s Fox News show Sunday night, has already made a round of calls pitching the former prosecutor as a possible short-term pick to serve out the remaining months of Graham’s term, which expires at the end of this year. Scott and Gowdy have long had a close relationship, beginning when the two were first elected to Congress in 2010, and authored a book together that was published in 2018.

Gowdy served in the House from 2011 to 2019. He gained national attention during his time as chair of the House select committee investigating then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s response to the 2012 attack on the U.S. government compound in Benghazi, Libya.

Despite Scott’s support for Gowdy, it remains unclear who will serve out the remainder of Graham’s term. Graham — who was elected to the Senate in 2002 — died Saturday from a heart condition called aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease, according to a preliminary examination by the District of Columbia’s medical examiner released Sunday. He was 71.

Gowdy is not the only name floating as a possible replacement for Graham. South Carolina Republican Gov. Henry McMaster is leaning in a different direction and could move early this week, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump on Sunday hinted that he has “somebody that I think would be great,” though he did not say who. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, an ally of the governor, has also been discussed as a potential successor.

South Carolina Republicans will hold a special primary election in August to replace Graham, who had already been nominated to run for reelection in November. The winner will face off against Annie Andrews, a doctor who won the Democratic primary earlier this year.

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GOP leaders scramble to unjam the House as time runs short

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Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have high hopes they can use the dwindling pre-midterm legislative calendar to bolster their case for reelection.

First, they’ll have to put down a weekslong internal revolt that has ground the House floor to a halt.

Taking cues from President Donald Trump, hard-liners are falling in behind Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and her crusade to press for passage of the SAVE America Act, the partisan elections bill that has stalled for months in the Senate.

Before the July 4 holiday break, she blocked votes on the annual defense policy bill in protest, frustrating GOP colleagues are now just wondering if she can be persuaded to stand down.

“Not one member can understand the thought behind it,” Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Texas) said in an interview last week. “The hope is that when we come back, we start moving legislation again.”

So far, it’s not looking good. Trump shows no signs of abandoning his drumbeat for the elections bill. In his latest gesture, he announced Friday he would not sign a widely supported bipartisan housing bill in protest of the Senate standstill.

That has inspired more House lawmakers to deliver ultimatums. Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) announced Friday, for instance, that Republicans must add the SAVE America Act “to every piece of legislation until we secure our elections once and for all.”

On top of that, House GOP leaders are sparring with a separate group of ultraconservatives who are angry Speaker Mike Johnson hasn’t followed through on what they insist was a handshake deal to hold a vote on a tough immigration and border-security bill.

They’re threatening their own floor blockade, even as a separate group of more moderate lawmakers insist they cannot support the immigration legislation the hard-line Republicans are pushing.

House GOP leaders have asked the White House for help leaning on the Republican holdouts, according to two people granted anonymity to comment on internal discussions. To that end, Vice President JD Vance is set to visit a Tuesday conference meeting and encourage Republicans to reopen the floor and advance Trump’s agenda.

“At this point I’m pessimistic that it ever gets introduced or sees the light of day, because I think they just think these moderates aren’t going to vote for it,” said Michael Hough, co-president for federal relations at NumbersUSA, a think tank that advocates for more restrictive immigration policies.

Republican leaders have spent nearly two weeks strategizing after Johnson was forced to send lawmakers home early for the July 4 recess due to Luna’s blockade. Johnson did try to attach the elections overhaul to the defense bill before recess, but Luna blocked it anyway.

The GOP leadership team remains unsure of what, if anything, they will be able to move across the floor back in Washington this week. They have decided not to try to revive the must-pass Pentagon bill for now. Instead, they’re looking to call up a year-round daylight saving time bill on the floor this week — a priority for Florida lawmakers — as a way to entice Luna to allow legislative business to restart.

Johnson is also planning to again try to pass fiscal 2027 funding for the State Department and overseas programs — another casualty of the Luna-imposed meltdown. That would include a highly anticipated vote on an amendment from Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) that would slash aid to Israel — something GOP leaders expect will divide Democrats as Republicans seek to exploit the fierce divisions in the opposing party ahead of Election Day.

To appease the immigration hard-liners, GOP leaders have looked at potentially calling up narrower bills — such as a resolution critical of birthright citizenship following last month’s Supreme Court ruling upholding the practice or a bill cracking down on so-called sanctuary cities that do not comply with federal immigration enforcement agencies.

But with the issue weighed down with competing factional demands, Johnson’s leadership circle doesn’t believe any immigration measure can come to the floor at this point, according to four people granted anonymity to candidly describe the talks. Leaders have little to offer holdouts beyond a committee markup for a conservative border bill.

“Just do sanctuary [cities] — that’s like an 80-20 issue, especially among Republicans,” Hough said. “But they get four or five moderate members that say, ‘No, we’re not doing it,’ or, ‘We want what we want,’ and it’s kind of paralyzed them from doing anything.”

Also in a state of paralysis is the yearly appropriations process as a Sept. 30 funding deadline approaches. The House floor impasse has been part of that, but the more profound breakdown has been in the Senate, where a partisan stalemate over spending levels had left the Appropriations Committee unable to act — even before the weekslong absence of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and the sudden death Saturday of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

“It’s as dead as Woodrow Wilson,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said of the annual spending process.

The SAVE America Act is not expected to return to the Senate floor anytime soon, given that Majority Leader John Thune has repeatedly indicated it does not have the votes to move forward.

Instead, Thune is set to launch debate on the Senate’s version of the annual defense policy bill, stalled surveillance legislation and possibly cryptocurrency or college athletics legislation before heading home in August. He’s also set on confirming high-profile nominees like Trump’s attorney general pick, Todd Blanche, and his director of national intelligence designee, Jay Clayton.

The Senate GOP will also be watching as House Republicans try this week to compile a new partisan policy bill under the party-line budget reconciliation process. The White House wants any such package to include tens of billions of dollars in Iran war funding as well as other affordability-oriented items.

Some of the biggest supporters of the bill — referred to on Capitol Hill as “Reconciliation 3.0” in light of the two previous party-line bills Republicans have passed this Congress — initially hoped to move the measure before the summer recess.

That’s now looking unlikely for the House with only two weeks of session left, and Senate Republicans are more skeptical than ever — especially after struggling for weeks to pass a relatively narrow immigration enforcement proposal earlier this year through the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process.

“You saw how easy it was to pass Reconciliation 2.0, right? A very simple reconciliation, something we all supported, and that hit snags,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who is poised to take over the Senate Budget Committee after Graham’s death.

Johnson said Senate Republicans have not seen any of those details yet, and the House Budget Committee similarly has not produced any framework for the legislation — a key prerequisite for any reconciliation bill.

Still, Speaker Johnson is vowing to press forward in the House, and he is planning to huddle Monday with key GOP members to make a plan for the coming weeks.

House Budget Committee Republicans held a call Wednesday to sort out the way forward but didn’t come away with any breakthroughs or even a timeline as fiscal hawks demand spending cuts to offset any new war money or other expenditures, according to two people on the call who were granted anonymity to describe it.

Before members left town for the recess, Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) said in an interview that if there isn’t movement in the first couple of days back in session, reconciliation 2.0 is “real trouble.”

“I think the sense of urgency is known, and we want to get a win for this country,” he said.

But even as Republicans on both sides of the Capitol profess a desire to focus on affordability and to beef up their accomplishments heading into the midterms, a sense of resignation has taken hold.

Asked about the GOP agenda this summer, Sen. Johnson said, “I was going to say: What agenda?”

Myah Ward contributed to this report.

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The House’s top progressive thinks Democrats are failing on AI

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The chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus says Democrats are “in the wilderness” when it comes to artificial intelligence — warning that members of his party are being cowed by special interests and must look beyond data centers for evidence of AI’s growing threats.

In an interview Friday, Texas Rep. Greg Casar laid out a proposal for Democrats to become “AI populists,” which he defined as “Democrats stand[ing] with working people who know in their gut that AI right now is just going to make a few billionaires into trillionaires while making millions of Americans poorer, less safe and less free.”

That means, for one thing, eschewing money from AI giants — something that might make some Democrats uncomfortable in a cycle that has been dominated by the rise of new pro-AI super PACs like Leading the Future, which just spent $8 million to defeat an industry critic in a New York City House primary.

“I know for a fact that there’s a lot of consultants telling their clients that you don’t want an AI super PAC to spend millions against you, so just don’t touch the issue at all,” Casar said. “We absolutely cannot let the AI money silence us.”

He wants to ban companies from using AI to set prices based on personal consumer data, establish guardrails for chatbots and require data centers to generate their own electricity. He’s also introducing legislation to tax tokens — the underlying unit of AI computing power — to slow down the industry’s growth.

“I think those sorts of proposals are what working people are looking for from Democrats,” he said. “They want to know that we have a plan to stop their lives from getting significantly worse through unregulated AI development.”

Casar’s platform is dramatically more extensive than that of House Democratic leaders, who are choosing to promote a more narrow AI message ahead of the midterms that centers on shielding people from the cost of data centers and preventing President Donald Trump’s administration from writing the AI rulebook for the entire country.

His message is also far more detailed than that of Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has said little publicly beyond wanting to protect the “American ratepayer” from the explosion of data centers.

“A new Stanford study finding that young workers in AI-exposed careers are already having trouble finding jobs; mass layoffs at Oracle, which is based in my district in Austin … as those impacts start to be felt more and more across the country, I think the uprising against data centers may wind up looking small compared to the uprising against all of the impacts of unregulated artificial intelligence,” Casar said.

He’s also growing impatient as the three-member commission that Jeffries convened to develop a consensus Democratic AI framework does not expect to introduce any legislation until the end of the year — once the House majority has likely already been settled.

“I don’t think that, on AI issues, we should be a party like where we are right now on cryptocurrency, where it’s just not really clear where the Democratic Party stands,” Casar said. “We cannot afford for the public to be confused about which of the parties is for them versus the AI companies.”

Casar is calling for an attention-grabbing approach. Last month, for instance, he staged a news conference in front of Oracle headquarters to condemn the company for AI-related layoffs. It’s similar to the high-profile tour of a Meta data construction site in Georgia convened by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y) back in May.

But he is not in full lockstep with Ocasio-Cortez and other progressive standard-bearers. For example, he wouldn’t endorse the 10-year moratorium on data center construction proposed by Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

“I generally align with the point that we shouldn’t build data centers that are going to make our lives worse, and that we need to put the rules in place first while I look at the specifics of the bill,” said Casar.

Casar is not the only Democrat with a sense of urgency about AI. Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) teamed up with Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) to develop a bipartisan proposal that lays out broad transparency and safety rules for tech companies and, controversially, would preempt state laws on AI development for three years.

The actual legislative text is still in the works as Trahan and Obernolte absorb feedback from their colleagues — much of which has been negative.

While Casar said he respects Trahan’s attempt to broker a deal, the framework falls short of creating the sort of “major federal safety protections” he’s demanding — on par with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, an agency with a nearly-billion-dollar annual budget that conducts about 900 annual inspections.

Casar said those sort of safety measures would be a prerequisite for any bipartisan accord to allow the federal government to preempt state AI safety laws: “If we could get true AI safety legislation across the finish line, we should be willing to compromise and work together.”

In the absence of actual legislation to run on ahead of the midterms, Casar said Democrats need to fill in the blanks for voters by vowing an AI-regulatory blitz next Congress — even if it draws more pro-AI spending that endangers their party’s ability to counter Trump in a potential House Democratic majority.

“Of course, fighting back against Trump is important,” Casar said. “But I think when we look back at 15 or 20 years, the most important thing that happened in 2026 may be AI development, not whatever crazy thing Trump just did today. … We can’t let the threat that Trump poses overwhelm our ability to organize on AI.”

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