Congress
Kathy Hochul is trying to hold the center in a disruptive political age
ALBANY, New York — In a time of massive political upheaval, Gov. Kathy Hochul is selling herself as a conventional politician.
Thrust into the job five years ago, Hochul is running for a second full term without the baggage of Andrew Cuomo, her scandal-scarred predecessor. She has a package of policy wins to tout — like banning cellphones in schools, no-cost child care and an effort to lower car insurance rates. A prodigious fundraiser, Hochul also has a mammoth cash advantage over her Republican rival, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Yet there are nagging worries among New York Democrats.
Frustrated voters are rejecting incumbents and establishment-backed candidates. An ascendant left is putting centrist Democrats on their back foot and providing a convenient foil for Republicans to exploit. Sweeping affordability woes and the perception that people are less financially secure than prior generations are driving voters to embrace populist, charismatic candidates.
And then there’s New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has formed a steady, pragmatic relationship with the governor, but is nevertheless highly polarizing to moderate Jewish voters and the business community. Blakeman has sought to leverage that by frequently blaming both Hochul and Mamdani for crime and high taxes.
Ratcheting up the pressure is Hochul’s need to perform well at the top of the ticket and help push down-ballot Democrats over the finish line, including those in moderate suburban enclaves. Success would enable the governor to reverse the perception — stoked by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi four years ago — that her 2022 campaign’s weak showing against Republican Lee Zeldin kept the House in GOP hands.
Hochul’s campaign referred Blue Light News to an ally, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, for comment.
“Voters are increasingly calling BS on the sort of typical politicians and the establishment is not delivering,” he said. “The reason why Gov. Hochul is in such a strong position is because she’s so ruthlessly focused on delivering and she has delivered.”
New York is home to a handful of contested House districts that will potentially determine which party controls the chamber and the course of President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Those stakes have led Hochul to significantly expand the New York Democratic Party’s infrastructure — long a political fiefdom solely meant to aid a governor — to support local candidates.
To win reelection by a comfortable margin — her supporters believe it should be by at least 10 points — Hochul must hold together an increasingly fraught Democratic coalition, riven by debates over socialism, Israel and how aggressively to fight Trump.
“Kathy Hochul has prided herself on being a mom governor and you see those motherly attributes coming out in how she runs the government,” said former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, a Hochul ally. “She’s someone who keeps all the balls in the air at one time, but simultaneously unites everybody. It’s about the grind and moving forward. It’s not about giving grand speeches or winning over the media with flashiness — it’s about getting it done.”
Hochul, a 68-year-old moderate who has spent much of her professional life in elected office, would appear to be an unlikely fit for this tumultuous moment. The mild mannered Buffalo-native does not lean on bombast. And she can appear purposefully hokey, like in her recent video with actor Kevin Bacon to promote the repeal of an anti-dancing regulation in bars.
This sedate public persona hasn’t lit voters aflame. A Siena Research Institute survey last month found her drawing only 49 percent of the vote to Blakeman’s 39 percent. Just 48 percent of voters in this deep blue state have a favorable view of her, even as many of her policies — like attempts to curb Trump’s deportation campaign and a data center moratorium — are popular.
Republicans want to capitalize on her so-so polling and persistent voter fears over public safety. They have hammered the governor over the cost of living in a deeply expensive state, blaming her for rising utility costs. Blakeman’s light-on-policy campaign has pledged to cut utility bills in half and significantly reduce taxes without explaining how he would accomplish either task.
The 70-year-old Republican nominee has hugged Trump tightly during the campaign, showing no daylight with the president even as gas prices have soared due to the war in Iran and upstate farmers have decried the impact of his tariff regime. Blakeman hosted Trump at an August campaign-style rally in which Republican speakers blasted Democrats over public safety with cheering police officers behind them.
Hochul’s campaign is eagerly highlighting the Trump-Blakeman dynamic: One of her first TV ads concludes with Blakeman declaring “peace, love and Donald Trump.”
“Everyone wants to talk about individual issues, but this is still an election on where Donald Trump stands with voters in New York — whether Democrats perceive the governor will be a voice in opposition to Donald trump or if Bruce Blakeman is going to be in lockstep with his policies,” said Jay Martin, a strategist who is working on a pro-Hochul super PAC. “That’s really the question that’s going to be answered.”
Blakeman is considered by Republicans to be their best bet to bolster down-ballot GOP candidates, especially on bellwether Long Island, where Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen are trying to hold their suburban swing seats. Blakeman has touted his ability to twice win purplish Nassau County, where Mamdani remains a deep concern for suburban voters. Those vulnerable House Democrats, as well as upstate congressional contender Blake Gendebien, have kept Hochul at arm’s length — an indication they believe her presence would hurt their chances of winning.
The Republican’s campaign, meanwhile, has eagerly laced into Mamdani and his alliance with Hochul. Blakeman has churned out videos produced with artificial intelligence depicting a smiling mayor and governor walking together. He pledged to repeal a surcharge on costly second homes in New York City that was proposed by Hochul and enthusiastically cheered by Mamdani.
And Blakeman slammed the governor for appearing at an Islamic cultural center in a head scarf, calling her “Hijab Hochul.”
“Less than two weeks before the 25th anniversary of 9/11, this kind of political pandering is especially tone-deaf,” he posted on X.
(Hochul’s campaign was quick to amplify that Blakeman appeared in religious garb while attending a Sikh center.)
After Trump posted about the hard scarf photo, Hochul responded: “I’ll never apologize for treating people of any faith with dignity, no matter how Islamophobic you and your enablers are.”
While significantly lagging the governor in fundraising, Blakeman has deep-pocketed allies, including New York Knicks owner James Dolan, the top donor to a super PAC supporting the GOP nominee’s bid. And Republicans believe there is a path, given the Democratic Party’s factionalism and voters’ affordability woes that have proven troublesome to incumbents.
“He needs to raise more money to do the traditional ways of introducing him as a viable alternative to Kathy Hochul — I think he is, but obviously money is the next star that has to align,” former Republican Rep. Tom Reed said. “He doesn’t have to match her one to one. The path is aligning itself.”
Blakeman will also need to win over pockets of voters who have traditionally supported Democrats — moderates who are uncomfortable with the party’s leftward drift in the Trump 2.0 era and continue to be concerned with the cost of living. And while Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2006, public polling this year shows independent voters are consistently disgruntled with the direction of the state.
“The traditional red-versus-blue analysis is going out the door,” Reed said. “You saw Trump tap in with the African-American vote, the trades — it’s a reflection of that,” Reed said. “It’s an opportunity for those of the silent majority that are just sick and tired of the status quo, big party bosses, they think they can just phone it in and not listen to the people of New York.”
But Zeldin’s 2022 bid — conducted in the middle of Joe Biden’s single-term presidency — still had trouble making sufficient in-roads in Democratic-dominated New York City.
Mamdani’s successful mayoral campaign last year signaled a different kind of political realignment. He knit together a coalition of mostly young voters upset with costs and highly skeptical of establishment politicians like his main opponent, Cuomo.
But Mamdani’s rise has also unnerved New York’s large Jewish population. Business leaders have been uneasy with his unapologetic battle cry to raise taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. And he has struggled to win over older Black and Latino voters — people who’ve traditionally been the backbone of the New York Democratic Party.
The governor sidestepped what stood to be a divisive primary fight when Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado dropped his long-shot bid after Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed her reelection. Hochul’s team purposefully declined to directly attack Delgado — a strategic decision that helped keep the party together. She’s been able to work well with the mayor, forgoing the historic tensions that arise between governors and mayors. Unlike some moderate Democrats, Hochul has not excoriated the hard left in her party while making clear she disagrees with them on issues like Israel and hiking taxes.
Hochul told Blue Light News in August that she expects Mamdani will be “helpful” to her campaign. But it’s an open question as to whether the mayor’s supporters can be sufficiently marshaled to support his Albany ally. At the same time, Hochul must delicately thread a needle to ensure that she does not alienate those within her own coalition who are disquieted by Mamdani’s success.
“Mamdani is a double-edged sword for the governor,” said Evan Thies, a Democratic strategist and former political adviser to ex-Mayor Eric Adams. “The numbers show he can turn out Democratic voters for her in the city — but also that he can hurt her elsewhere.”
Top Republican officials are increasingly accepting the House may already be lost as they shift to trying to limit the damage and salvage a Senate majority.
After waiting for weeks to see if the party’s deluge of money could help a raft of GOP incumbents who appeared to be in terrible shape in internal polling, more recent internal Republican polling still shows deep erosion in Trump country.
Now, Trump officials and Republican operatives say more candidates may have their funding from GOP campaign groups cut off in the coming days, before it’s too late to spend the money elsewhere to shore up other shaky races.
“I speak to a lot of people. There is no one who has privately stated that they believe Republicans can hold the House — not in recent weeks, anyway,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who lost in the last big House Democratic wave in 2018 after representing a South Florida swing district.
Five senior House Republicans, granted anonymity to candidly discuss their party’s precarious position, told Blue Light News the House has all but slipped from their grasp.
One of those Republicans compared the situation to Democrats’ 2006 flip of the House — specifically noting that potential Senate seat flips in North Carolina and Ohio could have downballot effects, while House candidates in redrawn red states like Florida and Texas are “hanging on with their fingernails.”
President Donald Trump’s political operation and the top House GOP super PAC have been cutting off ad spending across the map in races they feel are no longer winnable or worth the money, including for Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Tom Kean Jr.
And some national operatives are already starting to point fingers over who’s to blame, arguing that surprisingly-competitive Senate races are sucking away donor attention — therefore forcing House operatives into tough spending decisions.
White House officials insist they’re not giving up on the House, and that moves by the president and his team to shift the allocation of resources shouldn’t be seen as them prioritizing one chamber over another.
“The cutting of resources should not dictate what the philosophy is or what the outlook is for the overall race at large,” a senior White House official said. “It’s not doom and gloom around here. Everyone’s very positive, upbeat.”
But on the ground, Republicans seem to be giving up hope for any saving grace from the president in the final stretch.
“President Trump has made this election all about himself,” a second senior House Republican said in an interview. “Now we have to survive that political storm.”
What else we’re watching:
— WATERS, CASTEN FACE OFF ROILS DEMS: House Democrats are poised to face a polarizing choice on the other side of the midterm elections: Shove aside one of the most prominent Black progressives in their party in favor of a middle-aged White guy with similar policy views, or hand one of the most powerful gavels in Congress back to a nearly 90-year-old as their base clamors for generational change. That fight between Rep. Sean Casten, 54, and Maxine Waters, 88, to be Financial Services’ top Democrat also threatens to derail the party’s unity as members race to take back control of the chamber.
— GOP’S TAX CUT DATA DELAYED: The Trump administration is delaying the release of detailed data showing how Republicans’ 2025 tax cuts affected millions of Americans’ taxes, even as it tries to tout the law ahead of the midterms. The data — which is expected to provide the first detailed look at taxpayers taking advantage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including new deductions for overtime wages and tipped income — was scheduled to be released in July and updated in September. But the IRS said it’s awaiting approval to publish the figures. The delay has already irked some who complain it is part of a pattern of the administration withholding otherwise routine releases of tax data.
Meredith Lee Hill, Andrew Howard, Mia McCarthy, Jasper Goodman, Katherine Hapgood, Riley Rogerson and Brian Faler contributed to this report.
Adam Hamilton raised $10.6 million in the third quarter of 2026 across his Senate campaign and his joint fundraising committees, his campaign tells Blue Light News, a significant haul for the Kansas Democrat.
The fundraising total illustrates Democrats’ newfound bullishness about flipping a Senate seat in the deep-red state for the first time since 1932.
“This grassroots support sends a clear message: with three weeks until Election Day, Adam Hamilton is building the momentum to win,” said Hamilton campaign spokesperson Tyson Brody.
Hamilton’s third-quarter figure is nearly triple his $3.66 million second-quarter total. His campaign did not provide a current cash-on-hand total.
National Democrats began pumping money into Kansas in recent days, a sign of their growing hopes that Hamilton could win. Last week, Senate Majority PAC — Senate Democrats’ top super PAC — reserved $5 million in television ads backing Hamilton. American Bridge PAC and Lower Costs Now, a new group affiliated with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ super PAC, have spent in Kansas in recent weeks.
Republicans have also flocked to Kansas to prop up Marshall: Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP’s top PAC, has spent or reserved nearly $11 million backing Marshall in the past week, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
“It took us five months to raise $15 million. [Marshall] got it in a day,” Hamilton said at a campaign event in Lawrence, Kansas on Monday. “So please help us.”
Marshall’s campaign has yet to release his third-quarter fundraising totals. As of mid-July, Marshall had over $5 million in the bank to $1.73 million for Hamilton.
A bipartisan Senate duo is urging Trump national security officials to “bring its full capacities to bear” to stave off threats posed by artificial intelligence — sooner rather than later.
Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell, the top Democrat on the Senate Commerce Committee, and Republican South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, who serves on the Senate Armed Services cybersecurity subcommittee, are calling for a full government response to a growing number of cybersecurity breaches.
“Recent AI security incidents should serve as a warning,” the senators wrote in a Tuesday letter to Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton and White House Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios. “Advanced AI agents have escaped testing environments, bypassed safeguards, and gained unauthorized access to real-world systems owned by government agencies and private organizations.”
Spokespeople for Clayton and Kratsios did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Their letter comes as lawmakers struggle to hash out what legislation on AI safety, if any, might look like. Members are currently in recess ahead of the November elections and there’s little hope progress can be made by the year’s end.
But those lawmakers who have been engaged on the topic for years now have mapped out administrative actions the Trump administration could move on now, without waiting on Congress.
The Cantwell and Rounds priorities include: strengthening federal AI safety and security standards at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST; expanding independent testing capabilities at the Center for Advancing Innovation and Standards for Super Intelligence, Department of Energy and the national labs; and working with the tech industry to develop and deploy defensive AI tools.
Specifically, the senators wrote, new NIST standards should address the risks posed by advanced AI capabilities, including the “potential misuse by malicious actors” to conduct sophisticated cyberattacks, automate attacks at scale and agents that threaten external systems and critical infrastructure.
They also said the federal government capacity should be complemented by universities and other research organizations, as well as by private sector, third-party evaluators.
Finally, they point to ways the government could use existing programs at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to work with AI labs to help detect threats and reinforce vulnerable systems.
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