Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) has locked down his House district for over a decade. Democrats think his Senate bid presents them an opening in a seat that has raced away from the party.

Kentucky’s 6th District — anchored by Lexington in the heart of the Bluegrass State — hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress since Ben Chandler in 2010. Barr has held the seat since 2013 and has proven difficult to dislodge. The last time a Democrat came close was in 2018, when fundraising juggernaut Amy McGrath came within about 3 points of defeating him.

But Barr won his last reelection in 2024 by 26 points, outperforming President Donald Trump, who carried the district by 15 points according to calculations from The Downballot.

If Barr had sought another term, Democrats privately concede they stood little chance.

But with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) retiring and Barr opting to run for his seat, a rare open seat is now in play — and firmly on Democrats’ target list.

In the Democratic primary, two candidates have emerged as frontrunners, according to national Democrats watching the race: Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, and Cherlynn Stevenson, a former Kentucky state representative. Each is offering a different theory for how to flip the deep-red district.

The question of how a Democrat could win the seat dominated a Democratic primary debate earlier this month, where candidates leaned on sharp criticisms of the Trump administration, ranging from its decision to strike Iran to affordability issues as a result of the president’s tariffs.

Stevenson has branded herself a “Mountain Democrat,” leaning into her Appalachian roots and pitching herself as someone who could mend the disconnect between the party and rural voters by focusing on cost-of-living pressures and access to affordable health care. She said her upbringing in a small mining town in eastern Kentucky and years living in Lexington allow her to bridge the district’s urban-rural divide.

“Winning right here in Kentucky requires cultural fluency and trust,” Stevenson said in an interview. “I know how to talk to working families, rural communities and independents because I am one of those people.”

She’s also got experience flipping seats. She was the first woman and first Democrat elected to represent Kentucky’s 88th state House district, where she also served as state House minority caucus chair.

Dembo, meanwhile, is pitching himself as a “Beshear Democrat” — a nod to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, who performed well in the 6th District during his 2023 reelection campaign.

“This is 100 percent a flippable district,” Dembo said in an interview, pointing to headwinds from “all of the terrible decisions of this Republican Congress.”

He has emphasized his experience as a Navy JAG officer and former federal prosecutor, arguing his resume gives him crossover appeal in a Republican-leaning district. Dembo resigned from his position at the Justice Department during Trump’s second term, saying he could no longer remain in his role amid what he described as corruption and the Trump administration’s “abuse of the criminal justice system.”

Both Dembo and Stevenson have posted solid fundraising numbers. And Republicans have a contested primary as well, in a race that includes state Rep. Ryan Dotson and former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado.

“We’re giving Republicans a run for their money in places that they never thought they would have to compete before, and now they do,” said DCCC spokesperson Madison Andrus.

But the race will still be incredibly challenging for Democrats, even though the DCCC has had the seat on its “Red to Blue” battleground list. Kentucky’s federal delegation remains overwhelmingly GOP. The seat also got nominally redder during the post-2022 redistricting process, making it even tougher terrain than during McGrath’s close call in the last Trump administration midterms eight years ago.

Most election watchers believe the seat is well outside the core House battleground as well, and it has not attracted notable outside spending, underscoring how steep the climb would be for Democrats to win even without an incumbent on the ballot.

Republicans dismissed the Democrats’ optimism outright.

“Democrats have been enjoying too much bourbon because their Kentucky 6 wishes are delusional,” said NRCC spokesperson Zach Bannon. “Republicans are poised to keep KY-06 red to retain and expand our majority.”