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The Dictatorship

Biden isn’t escalating the war in Ukraine — he’s doing the right thing

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Biden isn’t escalating the war in Ukraine — he’s doing the right thing

This week, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to strike inside Russia using longer-range American missiles. It’s an overdue, relatively small escalation after Russia’s bigger escalations and relentless attacks, letting Ukraine partially take the gloves off. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially requested this in May, and presumably asked in private before that. It will help Ukraine hinder Russia’s war machine by striking ammunition depots, weapons manufacturing, airfields and other military targets.

The apparent cause is the U.S. election. President-elect Donald Trump has long shown a strong affinity for Russian leader Vladimir Putinand reacted to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 by gushingly calling it “savvy” and “genius.” In subsequent years, Trump, his incoming Vice President-elect JD Vance and top surrogate/donor/adviser Elon Musk have all advocated a “peace plan” for Ukraine that amounts to “give Putin what he wants.” While Biden’s lifting restrictions on Ukraine is probably too late to make a big difference, it could cause some disruption to Russia’s war effort and improve Ukraine’s position before Trump tries to force them into a Russia-friendly deal.

It’s an overdue, relatively small escalation after Russia’s bigger escalations and relentless attacks, letting Ukraine partially take the gloves off.

Knowing that the United States is about to have a pro-Putin president makes Biden’s caution look awful in hindsight, but it looked excessive at the time as well. Caution made sense early in the war, since we didn’t have a good read on Russian capabilities. And keeping NATO forces out of direct combat with Russia still makes sense, since that could trigger an escalatory spiral that spins out of control, or at least undermine political support for Ukraine in NATO countries. But in early 2024, after two years of war, it was apparent Russia was doing everything it could think of to defeat Ukraine, and wasn’t keeping a large military capacity in reserve.

Except, of course, for nuclear weapons, but those are checked by mutually assured destruction and the global nuclear taboo. Russia fears World War III, just like everyone else, as well as alienating the large countries it still gets along with, namely China and India. Russia has never attacked weapons shipments on their way to Ukraine, showing that no matter their rhetoric, their actions respect NATO deterrence. By contrast, Israel has bombed Hezbollah-bound weapons shipments inside Syria for years.

But Russia bluffs a lot. They annexed occupied parts of Ukraine, and declared that any counterattack would cause nuclear war. Ukrainian forces kept coming, took some territory back, and Russia did little in response.

They convinced Elon Musk that a Ukrainian attack on Russian ships off the coast of Crimea would cause WWIII, and Musk cut off Starlink internet services to thwart a Ukrainian sea drone attack in progress. Shortly after, Ukraine hit Russian ships near Crimea without using Starlink, and Russia did little in response.

Ukraine has used U.S.-provided missiles to attack Russian military targets in occupied parts of Ukraine. They’ve used Ukrainian-made drones to attack inside Russia, including an airbase nearly 2,000 kilometer (about 1,243 miles) from the Ukrainian border. In response, Russia didn’t do anything it wasn’t already doing.

There is a possibility that longer-range strikes with U.S. missiles would require U.S. satellites for targeting, but since Russia didn’t offer a response to U.S. missile strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine or Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, it’s unlikely that Ukrainian strikes with U.S. missiles inside Russia represents such a red line that they’d risk everything over it.

As a matter of international law, Ukraine using U.S. missiles to attack inside Russia is cut-and-dry. Russia started the war without provocation, and could stop at any time but chooses to continue. As the clear aggressor, Russia is in material breach of the U.N. charter, and under the right of self-defense, Ukraine is legally allowed to fire at Russian military targets, including inside Russia.

And Russia is responsible for a much bigger escalation this year, with thousands of North Korean troops joining their war effort. Russia had already been using Iran-provided drones and North Korea-provided artillery shells in Ukrainemuch as Ukraine is using weapons from NATO countries. But the North Korean troops are the only foreign state forces to directly intervene.

It’s unlikely that Ukrainian strikes with U.S. missiles inside Russia represents such a red line that they’d risk everything over it.

After Biden’s announcement and Ukraine’s first use, Russia launched a new ballistic missile at the densely populated Ukrainian city of Dnipro, which Putin claimed was in retaliation for Ukraine shooting American (and British) missiles into Russia. It reportedly injured at least three people and damaged some buildings. The Ukrainians are unsurprisingly shrugging, since Russia shoots missiles, kamikaze drones and glide bombs at them every night, usually causing more damage. Two days before the ballistic missile attack, Russian drones killed 12 civilians and injured 13 more.

So while the missile technically represents an escalation, it’s mostly more of the same: attacking Ukrainians in an attempt to terrorize them into submission. For mourners, the weapon Russia used to kill their loved ones doesn’t matter. And if Russia could use these weapons to defeat the Ukrainian military and enable Russian ground forces to overrun the country, they would.

The new weapon is an intermediate range (about 620 miles to 1,860 miles) ballistic missile called an Oreshnik, capable of carrying nuclear warheads (though this one wasn’t), and was at least as much nuclear saber-rattling against the West as an attack on Ukraine. For that reason, Russia probably would’ve used it anyway at some point, finding some excuse. There’s no intimidation factor from a new weapon if you don’t show it off.

A day after the launch, Putin announced that Russia will mass produce the Oreshnik, and develop a “whole line” of similar missiles. That’s mostly a bluff, at least in the short term, since Russian defense manufacturing is already strained trying to feed the war in Ukraine, but it does represent yet another nuclear threat.

The response has to be a hard no. The U.S. has nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, too, and Russia knows it. Giving in to these sort of threats shows that nuclear extortion works, encouraging more.

If the West bends now, and later tries to take a stand, that raises the risk of an accidental spiral, because the earlier acquiescence could make Russia think that if it goes closer to the brink, the West will back down again. Calling the bluff is nerve-wracking, but a necessary strategic choice.

Russia’s loud rhetoric — but relatively small action in response to Ukraine’s attack inside Russia with U.S. missiles — suggests that this red line was always fake. The ability never would’ve handed Ukraine victory on its own, but it would have improved their military position. If Trump cuts U.S. aid to Ukraine and pushes them to surrender to Russia as expected, Biden’s hesitancy to authorize it will go down in history as a painful what-if.

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”

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The Dictatorship

Trump is seeing doctors for his annual physical. What the public finds out is up to him

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Trump is seeing doctors for his annual physical. What the public finds out is up to him

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump had another medical exam on Tuesday, putting his health under renewed public scrutiny after he has worked to dismiss concerns over his age and stamina.

The 79-year-old president spent more than three hours at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for what the White House described as preventive medical and dental checkups. It was Trump’s fourth publicly disclosed medical exam since he returned to office for a second term, and it comes as he tries to project strength ahead of midterm elections that will test his sway with voters.

In a social media post after the visit, Trump said that he had just finished his “6 month physical” and that “Everything checked out PERFECTLY.”

President Donald Trump walks down the stairs of Air Force One upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Md., Friday, May 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

President Donald Trump walks down the stairs of Air Force One upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Md., Friday, May 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

The White House did not immediately release a written report from Trump’s doctors.

For decades, administrations have released selected results from presidential physicals, offering the public a glimpse at the commander-in-chief’s health. But the results are filtered through the White House and must be approved by the president, raising questions about what the public does and doesn’t get to see.

Trump, a Republican, turns 80 next month and was the oldest person elected U.S. president. His immediate predecessor, President Joe Biden, a Democrat, was 82 when he left office, dropping out of the 2024 presidential race because of widespread concerns he was too old for the job.

A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in April found that less than half of U.S. adults think Trump has the mental sharpness or physical health to serve effectively as president.

“I think concern for the president’s physical health is probably at an all-time high, and I think advanced physical age is the No. 1 concern,” said Dr. Jeffrey Kuhlman, who served as a White House physician for more than a decade under Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

For a president of Trump’s age, a complete physical would be expected to include advanced heart testing, screening for common cancers and a cognitive assessmentalong with basics like height, weight and blood pressure, Kuhlman said.

The White House has not disclosed what the visit entailed but expressed confidence in what it will show.

“President Trump is the sharpest and most accessible President in American history who is working nonstop to solve problems and deliver on his promises, and he remains in excellent health,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement.

No law requiring presidents to disclose their medical records

In the weeks leading up to his visit, Trump has been saying he feels as good as he did five decades ago — even as he jokes about his fondness for fast food and his minimal exercise regimen. Yet he’s also sensitive to perceptions about his age, noting that he takes extra caution descending the steps from Air Force One to avoid headlines about a stumble.

President Donald Trump, right, with White House aide Natalie Harp, left, walks to the White House after viewing the construction of the ballroom, Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump, right, with White House aide Natalie Harp, left, walks to the White House after viewing the construction of the ballroom, Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

There is no law requiring presidents to publicize their health records, and the degree of transparency has varied by administration. Trump’s past reports have been criticized for offering scant detail and for providing statistics that some medical experts have viewed with skepticism.

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One, Friday, May 15, 2026, at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One, Friday, May 15, 2026, at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

At public appearances, Trump is often seen wearing makeup to conceal bruising on his handswhich the White House attributes to handshaking and regular aspirin use. He has sometimes appeared drowsy during meetings and closed his eyes for long stretchesthough he denies having fallen asleep.

President Donald Trump's right hand is seen as he speaks to the press after returning and stepping off Air Force One, Wednesday, May 20, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md., after speaking at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy commencement. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

President Donald Trump’s right hand is seen as he speaks to the press after returning and stepping off Air Force One, Wednesday, May 20, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md., after speaking at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy commencement. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Trump often boasts of having “aced” cognitive tests while frequently deriding Biden, who faced questions about his mental acuity. Biden and his aides pushed back aggressively against doubts raised about his fitness for office.

Some of Trump’s previous physicals have included the Montreal Cognitive Assessmentused to screen for dementia and cognitive impairment. Trump’s physicians reported a score of 30 out of 30 for him at his 2018 and 20 25 checkups.

Yet critics have pointed to Trump’s meandering speeches and sometimes bellicose rhetoric as evidence of cognitive decline.

Last month, a statement from more than 30 neurologists, psychiatrists and other medical experts — who acknowledged they’ve never examined him — said Trump was mentally unfit to serve and warned of an “increasingly dangerous decline” in his behavior based on what they called “objectively observable signs of serious medical concern.″

“Any so-called medical professionals engaging in armchair diagnosis or false speculation for political purposes are clearly breaking the Hippocratic Oath they’ve sworn to,” Ingle said.

Just like any other patient, presidents get to choose what’s disclosed about their health, said Sara Rosenthal, a bioethicist at the University of Kentucky who studies presidential health. Questions about transparency have become more acute as America elects aging presidents like Trump and Biden, she said.

“I think we can expect very little disclosure about the true health status of any president unless they’re in perfect health,” said Rosenthal, who has suggested an independent medical organization to review and report on the health of the president and those in the line of succession.

‘Nothing should be hidden’

Trump’s first medical report in his second term was released last April. In July, he was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiencya common condition in older adults that causes blood to pool in his veins. Photographs have shown the president with swollen feet, ankles and calves, described by the White House as a symptom of chronic venous insufficiency leading to “mild swelling” in his lower legs.

The left foot and swollen ankle of President Donald Trump are pictured as he sits with Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa in the Oval Office of the White House, July 16, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

The left foot and swollen ankle of President Donald Trump are pictured as he sits with Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa in the Oval Office of the White House, July 16, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Following his last publicly disclosed exam, described as a routine follow-up last OctoberTrump’s physician issued a one-page summary saying the president was in “exceptional health” without divulging many specific results.

The frequency of Trump’s medical checkups is not uncommon for someone his age, according to S. Jay Olshansky of the University of Illinois-Chicago, who has studied the health of past presidents. It’s part of a strategy to catch problems while they’re still treatable, Olshansky said.

Olshansky says the public deserves to see more than White House medical summaries that “may be subject to editorial discretion.” Full, unredacted medical records should be made public, he said: “Nothing should be hidden.”

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The Dictatorship

Trump says Iran deal should include additional countries joining Abraham Accords

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Trump says Iran deal should include additional countries joining Abraham Accords

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military said Monday that it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, including on missile launch sites and boats placing mines, even as President Donald Trump said on social media that negotiations with Tehran were “proceeding nicely.”

The strikes were done “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” but the military was “using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, the spokesman for the U.S. military’s Central Command, said in a statement.

Further details were not immediately available, including more specifics on the threats from Iran and what this means for negotiations. There was no official response from Iran, which had sent its parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf to Qatar for negotiations over the possible deal with the U.S.

Qatar, which faced intense attacks from Iran during the war, holds billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

In Iran, the news website Tabnak, believed to be close to former Revolutionary Guard chief Mohsen Rezaei, identified four dead Guard troops it said had been killed in American strikes on boats. Iranian state television separately reported blasts around Bandar Abbas, a city on the Strait of Hormuz home to a military port and a dual-use airport.

The strikes were the latest attacks to shake the weekslong ceasefire in the war. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed, remains effectively in Iran’s chokehold, disrupting global energy markets.

Trump brings up recognition of Israel

Earlier, Trump said any agreement to end the Iran war should include a requirement for several additional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to join the Abraham Accordsthe U.S.-brokered agreements from Trump’s first term aimed at normalizing relations with Israel.

The proposal came as the emerging Iran deal faced criticism from fellow Republicans who favor a harder line on Iran, and it could add new diplomatic complications to the negotiations.

Trump pointed to Saudi Arabia and Qatar as countries that should “immediately” sign on. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates became the first countries to join in 2020, diplomatically recognizing Israel.

He wrote that “after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords.”

Trump has long hoped Saudi Arabia would join. Saudi Arabia in particular has for decades called on Israel to return to its 1967 borders and allow the formation of a Palestinian nation with east Jerusalem as its capital. Israel’s conduct in the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip also has alienated Gulf Arab states and the wider Muslim world as well.

Pakistan remains key mediator

Recognition of a Palestinian state also remains key for Pakistan, which is among the countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel.

Islamabad-based analyst Syed Mohammad Ali said Pakistan’s position on Israel remains unchanged despite Trump’s latest proposal.

The president said he brought up the Abraham Accords plan with leaders during negotiations on Saturday. He said he would accept “one or two” countries declining to sign, but said most should be willing. Egypt and Jordan already formally recognize Israel and have long-standing peace treaties. Turkey first recognized Israel in 1949.

Masood Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, said it remains to be seen how workable the proposal might be for the countries on Trump’s list.

“The invocation of the Abraham Accords at this stage gives an altogether new dimension to the diplomatic and mediatory processes because this issue was not on the agenda,” he said, pointing to the domestic pressure Trump is facing to strike a favorable deal.

Still, Khan said, “the diplomatic track is still working, and I believe Pakistan is very much at the center of it, supported by regional countries.”

It remains unclear when or how any deal with Iran might be completed. Trump suggested even Iran could eventually sign on to the accords, if an agreement is reached.

The accords are a series of diplomatic, economic and security agreements created with U.S. influence during Trump’s first term, which also saw Sudan, Morocco, and, more recently, Kazakhstanjoin.

___

Ahmed reported from Islamabad. Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.

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Rep. Menefee defeats longtime Rep. Green in Texas Democratic House runoff shaped by redistricting

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Rep. Menefee defeats longtime Rep. Green in Texas Democratic House runoff shaped by redistricting

Rep. Christian Menefee, D-Texas, defeated veteran Democratic Rep. Al Green in Tuesday’s runofffor Texas’ 18th Congressional District, according to the Associated Press.

Menefee, 37, prevailed in a high-profile incumbent versus incumbent showdown created by Republican-led redistricting that placed the two Democrats in the same heavily Democratic Houston-area district.

The runoff was forced after neither Green nor Menefee secured more than 50% of the vote in the March Democratic primary. Menefee’s victory ends Green’s more than two decades in Congress and signals a generational shift in Houston-area Democratic politics.

Menefee emerged as one of Texas Democrats’ rising stars before launching his congressional bid. He became Harris County attorney in 2021, making history as the youngest person and first Black person elected to the position.

As county attorney, Menefee gained attention for legal battles against Republican state officials and outspoken opposition to conservative policies advanced by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Menefee first won the congressional seat earlier this year in a special election held after the death of former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who briefly represented the district following the death of longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in 2024.

The race was largely viewed as a test of whether younger Democratic voters were ready to move on from longtime party figures.

Green, 78, represented the Houston-based 9th Congressional District for more than two decades. He built a national profile as one of Congress’ most outspoken liberals and an early advocate for impeaching President Donald Trump during his first presidential term. Before Congress, Green spent years as a Harris County justice of the peace and became a prominent figure in Houston civil rights and Democratic politics.

But Menefee capitalized on growing calls for generational change and strong support among younger demographics and newer Democratic activists in the Houston area.

The race exposed generational divides within Houston-area Democratic politics. Menefee performed strongly with younger voters and in parts of Harris County during the March primary, while Green maintained support among older Black voters and longtime Democratic constituencies.

Polling leading into the runoff suggested a highly competitive race, with Menefee appearing to gain momentumin the final weeks.

Menefee is expected to easily hold the safely Democratic seat in November.

The contest marked the latest chapter in a turbulent period for the district, which has seen multiple elections in less than a year following the deaths of Jackson Leeand her successor, Turner.

Ebony Davis is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW based in Washington, D.C. She previously worked at BLN as a campaign reporter covering elections and politics.

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